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  • snapper,

    Don't prisons do much the same?
    difference being that it was extremely popular, people who did it were volunteers, they built infrastructure that's used to this very day, and it's a lot better than sitting around collecting money. tell me again how that's like prison, or a nazi forced labor camp.

    Well your liquidity is going down the plug hole. On May 2nd the yield was 1.63% and today it broke through the 2.4% barrier.
    you really need to stop looking at short-term movements as some sort of proof of long-term trend. of COURSE equities are down with bernanke's statement; why, they're down to the disastrous levels of...the beginning of May 2013!
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

    Comment


    • snapper,

      Given that US employment is still around 4.5m lower than it was in 2008 and that QE was justified on the grounds of creating employment clearly his priorities have changed.
      Civilian employment in 2008 was 145.37 million; this year it is averaging 143.42 million, or 1.95 million less. . . not 4.5 million. But, more to the point why would you measure against the peak of the bubble? (The same goes for the Fed’s bond holdings: massive losses, only if you measure it against an unrealistic top-of-the-bubble rate.)

      And, now that the program has worked, what would you propose the Fed do next? Off the top of my head, I might come up with, oh, say, preparing folks for winding it down?

      . . . . .

      The CCC was voluntary. Big difference.
      Trust me?
      I'm an economist!

      Comment


      • Originally posted by astralis View Post
        difference being that it was extremely popular, people who did it were volunteers, they built infrastructure that's used to this very day, and it's a lot better than sitting around collecting money. tell me again how that's like prison, or a nazi forced labor camp.
        When you are forced into such a camp by hunger it is arguable that term 'voluntary' is applicable. Of course the other option is to steal food which ends you in prison doing pretty the same thing.

        Originally posted by astralis View Post
        you really need to stop looking at short-term movements as some sort of proof of long-term trend. of COURSE equities are down with bernanke's statement; why, they're down to the disastrous levels of...the beginning of May 2013!
        Bond yields hit 22 month highs, not the start of May but yet you argued that there was no bond bubble.

        Originally posted by DOR View Post
        Civilian employment in 2008 was 145.37 million; this year it is averaging 143.42 million, or 1.95 million less. . . not 4.5 million. But, more to the point why would you measure against the peak of the bubble? (The same goes for the Fed’s bond holdings: massive losses, only if you measure it against an unrealistic top-of-the-bubble rate.)

        And, now that the program has worked, what would you propose the Fed do next? Off the top of my head, I might come up with, oh, say, preparing folks for winding it down?
        The Office of Labor (sic) Statistics begs to differ but let us not debate that again; according to US records unemployment was 5.2% at the start of 2008 and is now around 7.5%. Bernanke himself said he was aiming for a 6.5% unemployment rate and has effectively reneged on this. But most all the liquidity that both of you were so recently arguing is so needed is vanishing faster than water runs out of a bath. If this was so needed for 'recovery' a week ago, when the stock market highs were held as evidence of such a 'recovery', why is it no longer required when the unemployment rate remains above both the 2008 level and the level at which Bernanke was aiming at? One minute you are arguing that all this QE is needed and one statement later everything's fine although it's clearly in overdrive reverse on all the margins you previously held up as examples of 'recovery'. I find this feat of about turn-ism simply breath taking.

        I note gold went close to my $1,270 margin earlier and hit $1,274.35 briefly. It's possible it will break lower today which I consider a good buying opportunity.

        I hear China is having trouble with the inter bank lending rates etc too... Liquidity anyone?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by snapper View Post
          When you are forced into such a camp by hunger it is arguable that term 'voluntary' is applicable. Of course the other option is to steal food which ends you in prison doing pretty the same thing.



          Bond yields hit 22 month highs, not the start of May but yet you argued that there was no bond bubble.



          The Office of Labor (sic) Statistics begs to differ but let us not debate that again; ?
          Really?
          []Notice: Data not available: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

          Same source, different location:
          [http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CE16OV]
          Trust me?
          I'm an economist!

          Comment


          • Neither link works. I refer you to graph on previous page.

            Comment


            • Just some input from my side. The housing market IS recoverying. I have owned a fence company since 1999. The past 6 months, 30-40% of our jobs are from foreclosure sales. This is the first year since 2008 that we had a "boom" in work at income tax time (march) and the work didn't drop back off. We still have so much work now, I am having to put customers on a 3-4 week waiting list, or detour them to another company.

              I can not say what governmental policies, if any, have affected this, but I would say we are coming out of the woods with this housing recovery. New home building seems to still be a flat-line however, meaning other contractors, home builders, carpenters, roofers, painters, etc. are still having a hard time.

              Comment


              • snapper,

                When you are forced into such a camp by hunger it is arguable that term 'voluntary' is applicable. Of course the other option is to steal food which ends you in prison doing pretty the same thing.
                the folks who worked there were largely young, unemployed fit men. starving people didn't do the type of heavy labor that the CCC entailed.

                much better to work for food and keep some sense of honor than be on the dole, or alternatively starving and stealing food. that's why it was so popular. not because they were forced to do it by the government.

                Bond yields hit 22 month highs, not the start of May but yet you argued that there was no bond bubble.
                again, using short-term data to make long-term conclusions. temporary volatility from Bernanke's comments drive up yields and this is a sign of a bond bubble?

                here's another piece of short-term news,

                http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/18/news...ing/index.html

                The housing market has seen a raft of positive news recently, including a drop in foreclosures, a steady rise in home prices and an increase insales of both new and previously-owned homes. A rise in mortgage rates, up from recent record lows, has done little to slow the the housing market.
                what does that mean about your comment re: 'can the housing market continue to grow with higher mortgage rates?'

                if you say that we can't use one month's good news as conclusive proof that the housing market has recovered, i'd say you were right. this applies even more so to the market.

                Bernanke himself said he was aiming for a 6.5% unemployment rate and has effectively reneged on this.
                i'm not sure how you got that from what he said. bernanke said he'd continue the bond-buying until unemployment is around 7%, and would not raise interest rates thereafter.

                EDIT: i -do- think bernanke is foolish for talking about ending things now. wrong fixation.
                Last edited by astralis; 21 Jun 13,, 15:58.
                There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                Comment


                • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                  the folks who worked there were largely young, unemployed fit men. starving people didn't do the type of heavy labor that the CCC entailed.

                  much better to work for food and keep some sense of honor than be on the dole, or alternatively starving and stealing food. that's why it was so popular. not because they were forced to do it by the government.
                  Were they not later 'asked' to stop planting trees and make weapons? That's an altogether different debate so I shall refrain. The problem is though that while they are doing these great works for society (and food) other private companies who may have hired them and given them a wage cannot do the work; you are devaluing the labour market.

                  Originally posted by astralis View Post
                  again, using short-term data to make long-term conclusions. temporary volatility from Bernanke's comments drive up yields and this is a sign of a bond bubble?

                  here's another piece of short-term news,

                  Home building continues to rise - Jun. 18, 2013

                  what does that mean about your comment re: 'can the housing market continue to grow with higher mortgage rates?'
                  It says, my dear, that price appreciation in the property market is likely to slacken or, should the bond market continue downward (and 10year treasury notes just hit 2.50%), reverse.

                  Originally posted by astralis View Post
                  if you say that we can't use one month's good news as conclusive proof that the housing market has recovered, i'd say you were right. this applies even more so to the market.

                  i'm not sure how you got that from what he said. bernanke said he'd continue the bond-buying until unemployment is around 7%, and would not raise interest rates thereafter.

                  EDIT: i -do- think bernanke is foolish for talking about ending things now. wrong fixation.
                  Agree on the first bit regarding the equities markets. Regarding the US bond market that will not rise again unless Bernanke backs out and resumes 'moar' QE.

                  Regarding the 6.5% unemployment rate level; well I got it from Bernanke... QE4 Is Here: Bernanke Delivers $85B-A-Month Until Unemployment Falls Below 6.5% - Forbes

                  Regarding the third bit; at least you are more consistent in your views (though I believe them misguided) than Chairman of the Fed. Seems James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed agrees with you "The Committee was, through the Summary of Economic Projections process, marking down its assessment of both real GDP growth and inflation for 2013, and yet simultaneously announcing that less accommodative policy may be in store."

                  So can you mega monetisers please agree if 'moar' is needed or not? I think you know my solution.

                  Comment


                  • snapper,

                    The problem is though that while they are doing these great works for society (and food) other private companies who may have hired them and given them a wage cannot do the work; you are devaluing the labour market.
                    there was 30% unemployment. the labor market was ALREADY devalued, ie the unemployment rate was still in the double digits even after the CCC. the issue was a massive lack of demand.

                    Regarding the third bit; at least you are more consistent in your views (though I believe them misguided) than Chairman of the Fed.
                    i'd normally say not to mistake words with actions, because his actions will be to continue QE for the time being.

                    but in this case words matter, because the point is reinforce the fact that the monetary actions will continue indefinitely. inflation expectations in the market have actually been falling below the minimum which the Fed wants to sustain.
                    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                    Comment


                    • USGG10YR:IND
                      2.74 0.24 up9.42%

                      Attached Files

                      Comment


                      • From IBD
                        RealClearMarkets - A Solid Jobs Report? No, This Is a Crisis

                        It's even worse when you consider all of the net addition to June jobs - repeat, all - were part time. Compared with the 360,000 part-time positions created, full-time employment shrank by 240,000.

                        Year to date, only 130,000 full-time jobs have been added to our economy. The rest of the jobs - 557,000 - have been part time.

                        And tucked deep into the jobs report was this little tidbit: The underemployment rate, which measures those working in a job for which they're overqualified, or working part-time when they really want full-time work, shot up from 13.8% to 14.3%.

                        This isn't a solid jobs report. It's a crisis.

                        A new report from McKinsey & Co. says 45% of college graduates today have jobs that don't require college degrees. A generation of young, educated workers - our future human capital - is being wasted on waiting tables and selling shoes.

                        And those are the young people who can get jobs. The unemployment rate for 18- to 29-year-olds stands at 16.1%, with 1.7 million having dropped out of the labor force entirely.

                        ZR- what recovery?

                        Comment


                        • It is still better then net loss of jobs. Meaning more people are bringing food home and contribute via paying taxes, instead of being on the dole.

                          Not ideal, but far from bad.
                          No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                          To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                            It is still better then net loss of jobs. Meaning more people are bringing food home and contribute via paying taxes, instead of being on the dole.

                            Not ideal, but far from bad.
                            360,000 part time jobs provide a maximum of 10440000 labor hours per week (at 29 hours per week per job but the reality will be par less) vs 240,000 lost full time jobs costing 9,600,000 labor hours. If you account for the fact that most part jobs are closer to 20 hours than 30 the net result is less labor hours= less tax revenue.

                            Then account for the fact that most part time jobs pay less than the full time equivalent in both take home pay and benefits....

                            What recovery?
                            Last edited by zraver; 06 Jul 13,, 16:56.

                            Comment


                            • Z,

                              I am arguing that it could have been worse without those part time jobs, not that there is a recovery or not.

                              If you want to check recovery, look @ GDP.

                              BTW, those 240,000 jobs. Are loss or some are retirements?
                              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                                Z,

                                I am arguing that it could have been worse without those part time jobs, not that there is a recovery or not.

                                If you want to check recovery, look @ GDP.

                                BTW, those 240,000 jobs. Are loss or some are retirements?
                                maybe, but the drivign force behind the transition to a part time economy is Obamacare. The law has shot job creation and business start ups in the head.

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