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Poor guy... 
Amazing case of self delusion.
Amazing case of self delusion.
Pakistan
Musharraf interrupted
Apr 19th 2013, 12:01 by A.R. | ISLAMABAD
THE arrest of General Pervez Musharraf on April 19th, in Islamabad, should bring home at last to Pakistan’s former leader that he no longer has the clout to ride roughshod over the country’s battered institutions. As his delusions—that he could become a political actor once again in Pakistan, or that he could preserve his personal immunity while back in the country—fall away, he finds himself staring at a difficult future.
Mr Musharraf is in a tricky position. Earlier this week he learned that his efforts to run as a candidate for parliamentary elections on May 11th had failed, in four separate constituencies. Courts ruled that he was not of proper character to seek election. He had already been told that, as he is on a watch-list, he is unable to leave the country to return to his self-imposed exile in Britain or Saudi Arabia.
His decision to come back to Pakistan in March increasingly looks to have been a mistake. On his return, in Karachi, a pathetically small crowd of supporters waited to see him. His appearances have drawn little backing. His supposedly large following on Facebook has proven to be an entire irrelevance: it does not translate into serious political support on the ground.
On April 18th he appeared in court to answer charges over an attempt to arrest a number of Pakistani judges in 2007. It went almost as badly as possible: he was told he would be arrested. Police and even lawyers in the court tried to grab him. Only the presence of tough personal-security team (flanking him in the picture above), and the mysterious decision of the gatekeeper at the court to allow his bulletproof vehicle to race away, let the general avoid immediate arrest. The next day, apparently after negotiations, he returned to court to hear he would be placed under house arrest, at least for the next two days. But then soon after he was transferred to police headquarters in Islamabad, to be kept in the officer's mess for the time being—for his own safety, the police say.
Did Mr Musharraf come back to Pakistan with any grand political purpose in mind, and if so, how does the arrest fit in? One rumour in Islamabad, ever home to endless talk of conspiracies, is that the former general is back in Pakistan to help muddy the political waters ahead of the election. The army, though not obviously meddling in politics before the polls, could possibly want to confuse voters, in an effort to dampen the chances of the election frontrunner, Nawaz Sharif, whose Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) or PML(N), is likely to emerge strongest. Mr Sharif has been explicit in criticising the army, ever since Mr Musharraf led it in toppling him as prime minister in a coup in 1999.
That is based on other, not implausible, speculations: that Imran Khan’s rise as a political force is somehow also encouraged by the army; that the popular activism of a cleric, Tahir-ul-Qadri, in January, was also designed to stir up confusion pre-elections. Mr Musharraf’s return might have fit that mould. He does not poll badly when voters are asked what they think of him. One recent national poll saw Mr Musharraf favoured by roughly a fifth of respondents; thus he was ranked as one of the more popular leaders in the country.
Yet that does not mean he could have any serious impact on elections. A pollster for GallupPakistan, Ijaz Gilani, nicely distinguishes Mr Musharraf’s presence as a notable national figure from his electoral prospects: “he’s an insignificant political player, almost a zero-electoral player.” Unless somehow the current row blows up into a much bigger confrontation, it is hard to imagine Mr Musharraf influencing the coming polls.
According to one person in contact with the current chief of the armed forces, General Ashfaq Kayani, Mr Musharraf was in fact strongly discouraged from returning to the country. One fear was that Mr Musharraf would be vulnerable to terrorist attack, and sufficient protection may not be provided for him. Another concern, now playing out, is that awkward precedents might be set. This is the first time in Pakistan’s history that a four-star general has been arrested. Others may follow more easily in future.
Mr Musharraf, however, may not dislike the current situation too badly. Various political analysts in Islamabad conclude that a kind of homesickness, the desire to be back where he mattered, drew him home to Pakistan. His prospects might be compared to Egypt’s former military leader, Hosni Mubarak, who faces legal cases but is able to live in some comfort. Mr Musharraf’s conditions are much more comfortable than the Egyptian’s. If he is kept under house arrest after all, he will be living under generous guard at his farmhouse home near Islamabad.
It could be, too, that he calculates a spell under arrest is a means towards some rehabilitation of his image. The current president, Asif Zardari, had precious little credibility as a politician when he took over charge of the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party, after the death of his wife, Benazir Bhutto. But at least Mr Zardari had a prison record. In South Asia serious politicians usually have a spell in prison to point to, supposedly as proof of their zeal and sacrifice to their causes.
Yet another, perhaps more convoluted, theory exists. Mr Musharraf’s trials may not have much impact on the coming elections, but could serve as somehow useful to the army in the post-election period. If Mr Sharif were to become prime minister after the elections in May, might the army want to dish up some sort of problem to distract him from the start? A big row over what to do with Mr Musharraf could turn out to be helpful.
Pakistan: Musharraf interrupted | The Economist
(Picture credit: AFP)
Musharraf interrupted
Apr 19th 2013, 12:01 by A.R. | ISLAMABAD
THE arrest of General Pervez Musharraf on April 19th, in Islamabad, should bring home at last to Pakistan’s former leader that he no longer has the clout to ride roughshod over the country’s battered institutions. As his delusions—that he could become a political actor once again in Pakistan, or that he could preserve his personal immunity while back in the country—fall away, he finds himself staring at a difficult future.
Mr Musharraf is in a tricky position. Earlier this week he learned that his efforts to run as a candidate for parliamentary elections on May 11th had failed, in four separate constituencies. Courts ruled that he was not of proper character to seek election. He had already been told that, as he is on a watch-list, he is unable to leave the country to return to his self-imposed exile in Britain or Saudi Arabia.
His decision to come back to Pakistan in March increasingly looks to have been a mistake. On his return, in Karachi, a pathetically small crowd of supporters waited to see him. His appearances have drawn little backing. His supposedly large following on Facebook has proven to be an entire irrelevance: it does not translate into serious political support on the ground.
On April 18th he appeared in court to answer charges over an attempt to arrest a number of Pakistani judges in 2007. It went almost as badly as possible: he was told he would be arrested. Police and even lawyers in the court tried to grab him. Only the presence of tough personal-security team (flanking him in the picture above), and the mysterious decision of the gatekeeper at the court to allow his bulletproof vehicle to race away, let the general avoid immediate arrest. The next day, apparently after negotiations, he returned to court to hear he would be placed under house arrest, at least for the next two days. But then soon after he was transferred to police headquarters in Islamabad, to be kept in the officer's mess for the time being—for his own safety, the police say.
Did Mr Musharraf come back to Pakistan with any grand political purpose in mind, and if so, how does the arrest fit in? One rumour in Islamabad, ever home to endless talk of conspiracies, is that the former general is back in Pakistan to help muddy the political waters ahead of the election. The army, though not obviously meddling in politics before the polls, could possibly want to confuse voters, in an effort to dampen the chances of the election frontrunner, Nawaz Sharif, whose Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) or PML(N), is likely to emerge strongest. Mr Sharif has been explicit in criticising the army, ever since Mr Musharraf led it in toppling him as prime minister in a coup in 1999.
That is based on other, not implausible, speculations: that Imran Khan’s rise as a political force is somehow also encouraged by the army; that the popular activism of a cleric, Tahir-ul-Qadri, in January, was also designed to stir up confusion pre-elections. Mr Musharraf’s return might have fit that mould. He does not poll badly when voters are asked what they think of him. One recent national poll saw Mr Musharraf favoured by roughly a fifth of respondents; thus he was ranked as one of the more popular leaders in the country.
Yet that does not mean he could have any serious impact on elections. A pollster for GallupPakistan, Ijaz Gilani, nicely distinguishes Mr Musharraf’s presence as a notable national figure from his electoral prospects: “he’s an insignificant political player, almost a zero-electoral player.” Unless somehow the current row blows up into a much bigger confrontation, it is hard to imagine Mr Musharraf influencing the coming polls.
According to one person in contact with the current chief of the armed forces, General Ashfaq Kayani, Mr Musharraf was in fact strongly discouraged from returning to the country. One fear was that Mr Musharraf would be vulnerable to terrorist attack, and sufficient protection may not be provided for him. Another concern, now playing out, is that awkward precedents might be set. This is the first time in Pakistan’s history that a four-star general has been arrested. Others may follow more easily in future.
Mr Musharraf, however, may not dislike the current situation too badly. Various political analysts in Islamabad conclude that a kind of homesickness, the desire to be back where he mattered, drew him home to Pakistan. His prospects might be compared to Egypt’s former military leader, Hosni Mubarak, who faces legal cases but is able to live in some comfort. Mr Musharraf’s conditions are much more comfortable than the Egyptian’s. If he is kept under house arrest after all, he will be living under generous guard at his farmhouse home near Islamabad.
It could be, too, that he calculates a spell under arrest is a means towards some rehabilitation of his image. The current president, Asif Zardari, had precious little credibility as a politician when he took over charge of the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party, after the death of his wife, Benazir Bhutto. But at least Mr Zardari had a prison record. In South Asia serious politicians usually have a spell in prison to point to, supposedly as proof of their zeal and sacrifice to their causes.
Yet another, perhaps more convoluted, theory exists. Mr Musharraf’s trials may not have much impact on the coming elections, but could serve as somehow useful to the army in the post-election period. If Mr Sharif were to become prime minister after the elections in May, might the army want to dish up some sort of problem to distract him from the start? A big row over what to do with Mr Musharraf could turn out to be helpful.
Pakistan: Musharraf interrupted | The Economist
(Picture credit: AFP)
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