Korean Reunification Imminent? Thoughts

[astralis]

col yu,

I don't know any other army with that many mutinies on an annual basis.

IIRC aren't they pretty much brigade-level and below? i figure if the kid could off so many generals in his purge, he must be fairly confident enough of the army would meekly acquiesce.

[Major Dad]

I really don't know if the Chinese could react fast enough. Certainly nothing more than division level and I cannot see more than 100 miles from the Sino-Korean border. If the South-US goes, then they have to go fast. They cannot allow the NORKs time and space to fuel and armed their rockets.

I agree, which is why I think the Chinese won't wait but will preempt us.

We really don't know if they don't have gun type nukes and they got wooden biplanes that for all practical purposes, their stealth bombers and effective at alluding radar as our real stealth planes.

Are NORK pilots ready to take on a suicide mission? Because delivering a nuclear weapon in an AN-2 would be a suicide mission without doubt.

[Bigfella]

Are NORK pilots ready to take on a suicide mission? Because delivering a nuclear weapon in an AN-2 would be a suicide mission without doubt.

If you are a Nth Korean pilot 'suicide mission' is pretty much the job description. At least the guys with the nuke might be able to convince themselves their sacrifice might change the outcome of the war. The guys flying poorly maintained Chinese knockoffs of Russian planes that were outdated before their parents were born must have some inkling that their sacrifice will be as pointless as it is certain. Their best hope is that the plane drops out of the sky before they get within missile range (which is actually quite possible).

[Officer of Engineers]

IIRC aren't they pretty much brigade-level and below? i figure if the kid could off so many generals in his purge, he must be fairly confident enough of the army would meekly acquiesce.

Within context that we're speaking off, you can forget the Army dying for Kim the Fat.

I agree, which is why I think the Chinese won't wait but will preempt us.

We don't see the prep work ... and frankly, so would the NORKs.

[Skywatcher]

With all due respect to the 2nd Division, frankly I don't think that China would be too worried even if the DoD in some fit of insanity parked the entire outfit on the Yalu after Reunification.

[Zinja]

I don't know any other army with that many mutinies on an annual basis.

How about the recruitment levels Col?

[Zinja]

I really don't know if the Chinese could react fast enough. Certainly nothing more than division level and I cannot see more than 100 miles from the Sino-Korean border. If the South-US goes, then they have to go fast. They cannot allow the NORKs time and space to fuel and armed their rockets. We really don't know if they don't have gun type nukes and they got wooden biplanes that for all practical purposes, their stealth bombers and effective at alluding radar as our real stealth planes.

Col,if NK is imploding, how will the NKoreans feel about a Chinese invasion? Would they see them as liberators or invaders?

[Officer of Engineers]

How about the recruitment levels Col?

It's a conscripted army.

Col,if NK is imploding, how will the NKoreans feel about a Chinese invasion? Would they see them as liberators or invaders?

There will be three factions.

1) They would welcome the Chinese.
2) They would fight the Chinese.
3) They don't care.

[cyppok]

The Chinese will do nothing.

I think the internal implosion will take care of the head people once they are gone the Koreas will reunite.
I figure middle-officer core if there is one will simply kill off all the top pontificators.

From China's point of view risking a conflict to impose an inevitable solution for the sake of keeping things as they are is not a good risk.

Korea would most likely be a very stable and beneficial partner to have economically and even internationally. U.S. presence is not a big problem because they are used to it, yes it will be closer in the north but wasn't it already with bases in the South Korea and Japan?
North Korean refugees and other aspects also pose problems but they would be less of a problem in a United Korea.

We will know how bad it was once it collapses my guess not too far long now.

[Doktor]

It's a conscripted army.

There might be something I miss there, but conscripts don't start mutiny. You need higher ranks to start it.

Then again, maybe that's why they are so numerous, but short-lived.

[Officer of Engineers]

Conscripts can mutiny just like everybody else, especially when they're being deliberately starved and beaten.

[xinhui]

North Korea's aggression could strengthen US-China alliance

Published April 05, 2013

Associated Press

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WASHINGTON – North Korea's latest outburst of nuclear and military threats has given the U.S. a rare opportunity to build bridges with China -- a potential silver lining to the simmering crisis that could revitalize the Obama administration's flagging policy pivot to Asia.

The architect of the administration's Asia policy described a subtle change in Chinese thinking as a result of Pyongyang's recent nuclear tests, rocket launches and abandonment of the armistice that ended the 1950-53 war with South Korea.

Pyongyang has taken similar actions in the past, prompting Washington to step up military readiness in the region to soothe allies South Korea and Japan. But in an unusual rebuke this week, Beijing called North Korea's moves "regrettable" -- amounting to a slap from Pyongyang's strongest economic and diplomatic supporter.

"They, I think, recognize that the actions that North Korea has taken in recent months and years are in fact antithetical to their own national security interests," former Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told a panel Thursday at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

"There is a subtle shift in Chinese foreign policy" toward North Korea, said Campbell, who retired in February as the administration's top diplomat in East Asia and the Pacific region. "I don't think that provocative path can be lost on Pyongyang. ... I think that they have succeeded in undermining trust and confidence in Beijing."

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland described "good unity" between the U.S. and China in responding to North Korea.

"The issue here is to continue to recognize that the threats we share are common, and the approaches are more likely to be more effective if we can work well together," she told reporters Thursday.

For now, the crisis has given new rise to the White House's decision to bolster U.S. economic and security in the region that for years was sidelined as a priority by war and terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa.

Much of the policy has centered on China -- both in strengthening diplomatic ties and economic trade. But China is an unreliable American ally and has been suspicious about the U.S. entreaty, which it sees as economic competition on its own turf.

Now, North Korea's threats have focused China and the U.S. on a regional security threat instead of an economic rivalry.

"Part of the pivot is to also take a more active interest in the security issues in Asia," Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., who chairs a committee overseeing East Asia, said in an interview this week. "And clearly, North Korea is the most difficult country and one that represents security issues for the countries in Asia, as well as indirectly affects U.S. interests."

"With North Korea making these noises, it will require the U.S. to deal with security issues in Asia," Cardin said.

North Korea has ratcheted up an almost daily string of threats toward the U.S., South Korea and Japan and moved a missile with "considerable range" to its east coast, South Korea's defense minister said Thursday. But he emphasized that the missile was not capable of reaching the United States, and officials in Seoul and Washington agree there are no signs that Pyongyang is preparing for a full-scale conflict.

Last year, North Korea launched two long-range rockets -- it claims they were satellites but were widely believed to be missiles -- and in February announced it conducted an underground nuclear test. A month later, the country declared its 1953 armistice with South Korea void. And this week, Pyongyang said it would restart a shuttered nuclear reactor and ramp up production of atomic weapons material, and began turning away South Korean workers from jointly run factories in the North.

Much of the bellicosity is seen as an effort to shore up loyalty among citizens and the military for North Korea's young leader, Kim Jong Un. But U.S. and U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang after the February nuclear test fueled tensions and began the unusually high level of threats.

It's also a response to annual U.S.-South Korean military drills that -- intentional or not -- antagonize the North. The ongoing drills have shown a conspicuous display of firepower, including flying American bombers and fighter jets in recent weeks over South Korea and off the Korean peninsula's coast, where a U.S. missile-defense ship also has been deployed.

North Korea's military issued a statement saying its troops have been authorized to counter U.S. "aggression" with "powerful practical military counteractions," including nuclear weapons. Experts doubt Pyongyang is able to launch nuclear-tipped missiles, although the extent of its nuclear arsenal is unclear.

China historically has been lax on enforcing international sanctions against the North. But in what the U.S. took as a positive development, China signed on to stiffer measures in the latest round of U.N. Security Council sanctions announced after the February nuclear test, and there are initial indications that it's increasing cargo inspections. Whether this will lead to concrete steps that will crimp North Korea's weapons' programs and illicit trade in arms, however, remains to be seen.

Patrick Cronin, an Asia expert at the Center for a New American Security and a senior State Department official during the George W. Bush administration, said Beijing also is helping set up back-channel negotiations with North Korea to ease the tensions.

But ultimately, he said, the U.S. isn't likely to succeed in winning China over as a reliable partner against North Korea beyond the current flare-up.

"There is an opportunity for the U.S. and China to renew cooperation on a North Korean strategy," Cronin said. "But we can't put all of our hopes on that cooperation, because it's been less than satisfying in the past. There are limits to how far China and the U.S. have coincidental interests with regard to North Korea. But it's not enough -- because, more likely, we're likely to fail."

Asia expert and peace activist Hyun Lee agreed that Washington will be unlikely to turn Beijing against North Korea in the long run. But she said China does not want to see a stepped-up U.S. military presence in the region, and Beijing certainly doesn't want a war on its borders.

China "doesn't want to deal with headaches like the tension between the U.S. and North Korea," said Lee of the Working Group for Peace and Demilitarization in Asia and the Pacific. "I think China is trying to restrain both sides."

Read more: North Korea's aggression could strengthen US-China alliance | Fox News

[cyppok]

and it begins

North Korea tells Russia to consider evacuating Pyongyang embassy

SEOUL - Agance France-Presse

North Korea has suggested to Russia that it should consider evacuating its embassy in Pyongyang due to the upsurge of tensions on the Korean peninsula, a Russian diplomat said Friday.

"A representative of the North Korean foreign ministry suggested that the Russian side examine the question of evacuating the employees of the Russian embassy," embassy spokesman Denis Samsonov told Russian news agencies.

ASIA - South Korea raises alert before expected North Korea missile test

The South Korea-US Combined Forces Command raised its "Watchcon" status from 3 to 2 to reflect indications of a "vital threat", Yonhap news agency said, citing a senior military official.

Watchcon 4 is in effect during normal peacetime, while Watchcon 3 reflects indications of an important threat. Watchcon 1 is used in wartime.

North Korea prepares for 'multiple launches': Claim

In a separate report, Yonhap quoted a government source as saying Pyongyang might be preparing "multiple" launches, after other launch vehicles were reportedly detected carrying shorter-range SCUD and Rodong missiles.

Although the North's warnings to embassies in Pyongyang and foreigners in the South were both largely shrugged off, there is growing global concern that sky-high tensions might trigger an incident that could swiftly escalate.

I am waiting for the last minute toppling of the regime from the inside by whatever officer core that is angry and semi-underfed. I figure there will be a speech after all the "criminals"(top leaders) are executed for immediate reunification.

[DOR]

I had a meeting with the new ROK ambassador to the PRC yesterday, Kwon Young-se. He’s a lawyer / politician, not a diplomat, and close to the president, Madam Park Geun-hye.

His line is that North Korea is driven by “rational irrationality,” i.e., they expect that acting like idiots will get them more than acting like normal folks.

What didn’t come up, and what I’m surprised hasn’t received more attention is the theory that the misogynists in Pyongyang are testing President Park.

= = = = =

Bigfella,
Great point about DPRK pilots’ job description !

[Bigfella]

I had a meeting with the new ROK ambassador to the PRC yesterday, Kwon Young-se. He’s a lawyer / politician, not a diplomat, and close to the president, Madam Park Geun-hye.

His line is that North Korea is driven by “rational irrationality,” i.e., they expect that acting like idiots will get them more than acting like normal folks.

That seems to be one of the more popular theories outside the more hysterical commentators.

What didn’t come up, and what I’m surprised hasn’t received more attention is the theory that the misogynists in Pyongyang are testing President Park.

I've heard speculation about 'testing' the new President, but not the misogyny angle. Given the lady's history I don't see her as the type to let herself get pushed around.

Bigfella,
Great point about DPRK pilots’ job description !

Seemed sorta obvious to me. Can't help wondering how many of them will just eject as soon as they are sure they are over the border.....assuming they get that far.