War on the Korean Peninsula: Present-day

[Officer of Engineers]

Both North Korea and South Korea began military exercises this month. South Korea's was design to last 2 month. North Korea's lasted 2 days.

[zraver]

How many weeks of fuel does NK have to supply its mechanized divisions and artillery supply logistics?

Figure a minimum of 30 days in strategic reserves, but then almost nothing. North Korea has refinery capacity for 71,000 barrels of oil a day, imports 14,000 barrels a day (or did) and produces just under 130 barrels a day domestically. Plus they have a least some of their truck fleet converted to wood burning gassifiers. Gassified trucks not withstanding, if they lose access to imports they are screwed unless they have a secret synthetic fuels industry.

[Officer of Engineers]

That is how it will end up, but that is unlikely to be how it starts.

I seriously doubt that. Any movement forward to jump off points will start off by the Chinese cutting off everything and the South will beat the North to the punch.

[Doktor]

Interesting discussion. So, it is not who will win, but when SK is financially ready to feed the NK.

[Stitch]

Interesting discussion. So, it is not who will win, but when SK is financially ready to feed the NK.

Along those lines, I think the example of the US invading Iraq back in 2003, but not having any "the day after the war stops" plans would be instructive; i.e.: don't invade another country unless you're planning on cleaning the mess up when you're done. I know "nation building" is NOT what the US Army is trained to do, but there should've been some sort of a "day after" plan to deal with what was left of Iraq after 2003.

[zraver]

I seriously doubt that. Any movement forward to jump off points will start off by the Chinese cutting off everything and the South will beat the North to the punch.

Sir, we have different reads on it. I am approaching it from a more Bismarkian realpolitik perspective focused on what i think are longer termed PRC goals. I say that if war comes China want's the RoK to win, but only after bleeding so much that promises of Chinese aid can buy US troops exiting the Asian mainland.

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir, we have different reads on it. I am approaching it from a more Bismarkian realpolitik perspective focused on what i think are longer termed PRC goals. I say that if war comes China want's the RoK to win, but only after bleeding so much that promises of Chinese aid can buy US troops exiting the Asian mainland.

The main Chinese goal is to keep North Koreans out of China and the best way to do that is to keep Kim in power. He has the security apparatus to maintain enough order so that there is no mass exodus. However, if that apparatus is to collapse by Kim's own stupid bellicose and forced Seoul to destroy it, then, the only Chinese option is to invade and drive to the 38th, destroying everything that even stinks of Kim, and thus force the refugees south.

[zraver]

The main Chinese goal is to keep North Koreans out of China and the best way to do that is to keep Kim in power. He has the security apparatus to maintain enough order so that there is no mass exodus. However, if that apparatus is to collapse by Kim's own stupid bellicose and forced Seoul to destroy it, then, the only Chinese option is to invade and drive to the 38th, destroying everything that even stinks of Kim, and thus force the refugees south.

Hopefully we never find out.

[Officer of Engineers]

Hopefully we never find out.

Baby Kim is really putting that hope to the test. Sooner or later, someone is going slap him for his temper tantrums.

[TopHatter]

As already stated, it would be the South Koreans marching north, not the North marching south.

Sir, wouldn't the NK border and the entire area around those HARTS be one giant shit-storm of area-denial weapons and equipment?
It would take forever and a day for the ROK's to reach them. In the meantime, Seoul is turned into that sea of fire that Kim and his gang are constantly promising.

Baby Kim is really putting that hope to the test. Sooner or later, someone is going slap him for his temper tantrums.

I agree. After the Cheonan sinking and the Yeonpyeong bombardment, the ROK's are hit back big time if the North decides to start shooting again.

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir, wouldn't the NK border and the entire area around those HARTS be one giant shit-storm of area-denial weapons and equipment?
It would take forever and a day for the ROK's to reach them. In the meantime, Seoul is turned into that sea of fire that Kim and his gang are constantly promising.

You mean Engineers?

[Blademaster]

The main Chinese goal is to keep North Koreans out of China and the best way to do that is to keep Kim in power. He has the security apparatus to maintain enough order so that there is no mass exodus. However, if that apparatus is to collapse by Kim's own stupid bellicose and forced Seoul to destroy it, then, the only Chinese option is to invade and drive to the 38th, destroying everything that even stinks of Kim, and thus force the refugees south.

I am taking a long view on this. What is the birth rate of NKs? Is the population of NK shrinking? Perhaps that is the strategy of China. To make the population of NK wither to a few millions through famine, starvation, and whatnot so the expense of taking care of the NK population would be vastly smaller.

Are the statistics on Wiki page correct or flubbed and inflated?

[Officer of Engineers]

History would suggest otherwise. Populations always rebound after a big die off.

[Blademaster]

Figure a minimum of 30 days in strategic reserves, but then almost nothing. North Korea has refinery capacity for 71,000 barrels of oil a day, imports 14,000 barrels a day (or did) and produces just under 130 barrels a day domestically. Plus they have a least some of their truck fleet converted to wood burning gassifiers. Gassified trucks not withstanding, if they lose access to imports they are screwed unless they have a secret synthetic fuels industry.

That's it. There's absolutely no way that the NK can hold out against SKs for more than 2 weeks. It would be Dunkirk for NKs because in Dunkirk, the French were fighting until fuel ran out before German's fuel ran out.

I don't care how many soldiers or equipment NKs have, without fuel, those artillery equipment are just sitting ducks for counterfire.

How long would it take SK to pick off the 17,000 plus artillery guns that NKs have?

[Officer of Engineers]

How long would it take SK to pick off the 17,000 plus artillery guns that NKs have?

As long as it took the South to breach the DMZ ... which is somewhat easier than going south. The whole thing is that the North has always geared to invade the south. Except for the FEBA, their rear is geared to move troops forward into the attack, not to impede an enemy advance. As such, roads that help troops move south can also help troops move north.

Once the South breached the DMZ, then it's another Pusan Breakout and those NORK gunners would be running for their lives.