Open with stealth attacks on C4SRI and long range missile sites, follow with cruise missile attacks on interior targets and USN and USAF non-stealth air attacks on coastal radar sites and Iranian naval sites principally near bandar Abbas. Set up a rigid paroling of the straits of Hormuz by USN air assets. Take down of IIRG controlled off shore platforms and possibly the Tunds by SEAL/USMC assets.-How would such an action commence? How would the Iranians fare against such an attack?
Organize tanker convoys.
$6-10 a gallon US gasoline prices, global recession, massive unemployment in the major industrial countries if the war continues, a depression cannot be ruled out.-Short/long term implications?
Israel- all bark no bite(For the sake of keeping the scenario simple, assume the status quo in terms of current US/NATO deployments and other relevant factors ie. Israel, Russian, China etc.)
China will be opposed, a spike in oil prices and global recession will hurt them badly.
Russia will complain publicly but privately be glad, they dont want another nucelar neighbor and would love to make Western Europe even more dependent on Russian Energy.
India will complain for the same reasons as China.
The Gulf Arabs will be a mixed bag, welcoming the chance to take Iran down a notch, but worried about protests and an inability to export oil and all the money they need to buy peace at home.
Europe will be terrified, the threat of Iranian backed terror reprisals, loss of gulf oil and economic impacts.
Egypt and Pakistan will make public statements in favor of Iran, Turkey will as well (but profit off of sanctions regardless).
Karzai will of course stick another knife into his US/NATO backers.
Japan will be hurt economically but will support the US to show up US resolve to support Japan vis a vis China.
South Korea- same as China
Iran's response will be primarily bog hammers and long range missiles with what reprisal attacks from what ever terror cells they have. Israel will be a prime target for obvious reasons. However the long rang emissile threat is minor to Israel and I believe the bog hammer attacks can be managed. The real threat in terms of damage will be shorter ranged ballistic missile attacks on the Gulf Arabs especially against Gulf Arab oil faculties. These missiles are much more numerous, more technologically developed, harder to intercept and they have an awful lot of targets.
Canada will be thrilled- more oil to the US.
Obama and the Dems will be crucified long term if the Keystone XL pipe line has not been approved.