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Thread: Hypothetical Military Action against Iran

  1. #16
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    I think you are all well off the mark. Consider first why Iran wants to be a nuclear power? Well not to use it as clearly any use invites massive retaliation. The point is to appreciate the price of oil, a commodity they have. Now do your conjectures again and bear in mind the gulf oil and the Caspian gas, which the Russians would love the grab the transport fees for - remember the South Ossetian grab? Why did the Russians do that? How does mining the Straits of Hormuz help Iran and what would be the cost? How would moving into Tiblisi help the Russians and what would the cost be? Suppose they both did it at the same time? Ask yourselves these questions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    I think you are all well off the mark. Consider first why Iran wants to be a nuclear power? Well not to use it as clearly any use invites massive retaliation. The point is to appreciate the price of oil, a commodity they have. Now do your conjectures again and bear in mind the gulf oil and the Caspian gas, which the Russians would love the grab the transport fees for - remember the South Ossetian grab? Why did the Russians do that? How does mining the Straits of Hormuz help Iran and what would be the cost? How would moving into Tiblisi help the Russians and what would the cost be? Suppose they both did it at the same time? Ask yourselves these questions.
    South Ossetia is land locked...

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    South Ossetia is land locked...
    I guess she was referring how close the Russians came to this:

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    I have serious doubts about the US be able to pull it off, regardless of all discussed so far. There is the issue of what-to-do EVEN if you topple the regime, and Iran is no pushover.

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    IMO, Iran believes possessing nuclear weapons will prevent invasion and regeim change attacks. It wants these weapons to provide immunity from attacks. What really happens if they succeed will probably be much worse - it will supply weapons or knowlegde to another generation of nuclear weapons states, and decrease the stability of the world - by making a nuclear attack more likely.
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  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by chanjyj View Post
    I have serious doubts about the US be able to pull it off, regardless of all discussed so far. There is the issue of what-to-do EVEN if you topple the regime, and Iran is no pushover.
    Who said anything about regime change? What do you think a LINEBACKER campaign would do Iran's power grid and subsequent nuclear weapons program?

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by chanjyj View Post
    I have serious doubts about the US be able to pull it off, regardless of all discussed so far. There is the issue of what-to-do EVEN if you topple the regime, and Iran is no pushover.
    Which is why the nation-building phase of the military action may most likely be avoided entirely, and left to a succeeding party. The ability for US/NATO to take apart a nation is near unprecedented; it's when they get into the business of occupation where they run into problems.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Who said anything about regime change? What do you think a LINEBACKER campaign would do Iran's power grid and subsequent nuclear weapons program?
    Yup, if the goal is to stop the nuclear program all you have to do is collapse the infrastructure. They can build all the nuclear faculties they want under mountains they cant do the same for the power grid or highway overpasses. Someone (chanjyj) should ask the Serbians and Iraqis how dirty and underhanded te American way of war really is. We used Tomahawks loaded with filaments on Iraqi powerlines to cause massive surges, shorts and spikes- and their power grid never recovered. We dropped every bridge across the Danube in Serbia IIRC.

    Iran in an intensely urban nation. 1/5th of Iran's population lives in Tehran itself. Fully 70% of the population lives in urban centers. These urban centers depend on a steady flow of goods, fresh water, waste and electricity. None of which can be hardened. Cripple even oen and the cities become pits of despair with all eyes focused on the Clerics and demanding relief.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Team View Post
    it's when they get into the business of occupation where they run into problems.
    Along with with never fight a land war in Asia should be "never occupy Iran unless you want to become a Persian." Afghanistan resists invaders, Iran co-opts them.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    They can build all the nuclear faculties they want under mountains they cant do the same for the power grid or highway overpasses.
    Last I checked, they're still dependent on the local grocery stores.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Who said anything about regime change? What do you think a LINEBACKER campaign would do Iran's power grid and subsequent nuclear weapons program?
    Well said.

    Being a hardware guy, I'd say it wouldn't be too hard to load DG up with a wing of B-2's and a couple of wings of B-1's, along with tanker support, and carry out a fairly leisurely air campaign against the Iranian infrastructure a la Arc Light. I'm not saying we'd be able overthrow the regime (something that has NEVER been done by air power alone), but we would definitely hurt the regime's ability to rule the nation and continue their nuclear enrichment program.
    "There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Who said anything about regime change? What do you think a LINEBACKER campaign would do Iran's power grid and subsequent nuclear weapons program?
    Sir, all sites have their own generating facility - they have to have for safety's sake, not just for the sake of 'security'. A Linebacker campaign would hurt the civilian populace through the destruction of infrastructure that serves them far more than military capability to produce uranium etc. It would also do nothing eradicate the acquired nuclear arsenal which is the reason for such a campaign, nor alleviate the mining of the Gulf, which would raise oil prices considerably.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Who said anything about regime change? What do you think a LINEBACKER campaign would do Iran's power grid and subsequent nuclear weapons program?
    OOE, if there is no regime change what's to stop the current mullahs from starting all over again (or perhaps even going a little bonkers) - they're not known for their sanity anyway.

    What exactly is the motive of any military action in this hypothetical scenario if there is no end to it? Going to cost a bomb (sic), raise oil prices - for nothing?

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Sir, all sites have their own generating facility - they have to have for safety's sake, not just for the sake of 'security'. A Linebacker campaign would hurt the civilian populace through the destruction of infrastructure that serves them far more than military capability to produce uranium etc. It would also do nothing eradicate the acquired nuclear arsenal which is the reason for such a campaign, nor alleviate the mining of the Gulf, which would raise oil prices considerably.
    Attacking underground facilities is now easy. Way too easy. Thermobarics and airshafts do wonders in depriving O2 and heat ventallation.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by chanjyj View Post
    OOE, if there is no regime change what's to stop the current mullahs from starting all over again (or perhaps even going a little bonkers) - they're not known for their sanity anyway.
    Lack of money.

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