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Of cause, this are all just opinions of people(some very imformed) outside the chinese leadership, I still believe we can never be 100% sure what the chinese leaders have in mind as times and people are always changing. But looking though the actions of China in the past years since it got nukes, this does seem to be have they do things.
Yes this the crux of my question. Why would a country would want to obtain a nuke? Why China or India wanted to become a second rate nuclear power? Why NK seriously believe first generation nukes are going to save it from US?
As for why mao decided to get nukes, OOE gave a good reason. Just a few years ago the US just nuked a country,twice, and is now talking about nuking china, nukes were just very big bombs in thier minds back then
I am not aware what went through Mao's mind or what was the general environment back then? But even if we regard nukes as just a big bomb, you can not use them against US/USSR because they have a lot more of it and you do not even have competent delivery mechanism back then. Getting an arsenal would only be useful if it can decrease the chances of being bombed by a superpower. But if the superpower already knows you don't have many bombs ,also you can not deliver them and you know that that they know this then why even try to get a nuclear arsenal. Was China trying to bluff the world into thinking that they are more dangerous then they were? Or were they hopeful that given enough time it can obtain minimum deterrence?
But even then the point is China was in no way able to threaten US or Soviets with its paltry stockpile of nukes (if I am getting it correct). In a future war US/USSR could have threatened China in the same way as US blackmailed in Korean war. The Chinese nuke changed nothing. Or did they? Or was it that Chinese were too hopeful that getting nukes was a good idea and then realized it was not that useful as they thought earlier. "Deterrence is not war fighting" seems very confusing when the adversary is a nuclear superpower and not a minor power like Pakistan, China or India.
Yes, it did. It ensure that any war against the Chinese mainland is a nuclear one.
The main problem with attacking any nuclear arsenal is can you be sure that you get them all before the Chinese could retaliate. The Chinese had rockets that could reach Moscow.
Up until the 1970s, the Soviets were reasonably sure that they could do so but only with American support ... or at least get out of the way. The Americans refused and even hinted that they will help the Chinese. That meant that the Americans could give advance warning to the Chinese to move their nukes and thus reduce Soviet chances of getting them all.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
Yes, it did. It ensure that any war against the Chinese mainland is a nuclear one.
Now that was an eye opening thought.
I was trying so hard to figure out how Chinese deterrence worked (and indeed it did), but always knew that was because one of the superpowers were backing them. Was so hard to get the 'why' part.
THANK YOU!
No such thing as a good tax - Churchill
To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
Yes, it did. It ensure that any war against the Chinese mainland is a nuclear one.
But China agreed to NFU and anyway first use against a superpower would be certain suicide. Which meant they would not use nuclear option even if they are being defeated conventionally. So a superpower can fight without making it nuclear. Right? Or am I missing something?
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
The Americans refused and even hinted that they will help the Chinese. That meant that the Americans could give advance warning to the Chinese to move their nukes and thus reduce Soviet chances of getting them all.
OK that makes it clear why the Chinese arsenal worked as a deterrence against a nuclear attack.
Nobody believed in NFU just as no one believed in limited nuclear war. The concept is simple that either China uses them or she loses them. Never occurred to any of us that China was perfectly willing to lose them.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
Nobody believed in NFU just as no one believed in limited nuclear war. The concept is simple that either China uses them or she loses them. Never occurred to any of us that China was perfectly willing to lose them.
China was going to die in a war anyway.
It was going to start nuclear from the start.
Since no one believed in NFU, then the first priority is to take out China's nuclear weapons. Lop Nor was going to be nuked from day 1.
So by going nuclear, China made any future mainland war more costly and risky for her adversaries (and herself). China made war less likely by trading any chances of her survival in event of a war. This is very dangerous and wasn't survival more important for China than just preventing war?
So by going nuclear, China made any future mainland war more costly and risky for her adversaries (and herself). China made war less likely by trading any chances of her survival in event of a war. This is very dangerous and wasn't survival more important for China than just preventing war?
"This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs
another puff of bluster - with a rousing sound track
Note the "cruel" NK MBT emerging from a block of ice to smash the imperialist dogs...
So they fight with axes now (1:06) ? Is that why they are part of the "Axes" of Evil?
"Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus
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