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Thread: China trade now bigger than US

  1. #31
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    When did the US have an industrial base making iPhones? Or, laptops computers?
    I do believe both Gateway and Dell made their computers in the mid 80's through sometimes in the 90's here in South Dakota and Texas respectively. No doubt IBM also in the 80's before the profit margin went south on hardware.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    I do believe both Gateway and Dell made their computers in the mid 80's through sometimes in the 90's here in South Dakota and Texas respectively. No doubt IBM also in the 80's before the profit margin went south on hardware.
    I like to call it the Tiananmen Square syndrome

  3. #33
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    A 'spectacular' trend is transforming the world's second largest economy, Stephen Roach says

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/18/china...big-surge.html


    China's economy is a lot more resilient than the West thinks, according to one of Wall Street's most distinguished voices on the region.

    Stephen Roach, who was chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, believes the world's second largest economy is on the cusp of an even bigger growth spurt — thanks to new technological advances and a booming consumer.

    "The wave of innovation in their private-based economy, anything from e-commerce to medical sciences, is really quite spectacular," Roach said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

    During his 30-year tenure at the Morgan Stanley, Roach led a team of economists around the world. He continues to make several trips a year to China as a Yale University senior fellow.

    "The Chinese economy seems to be making remarkable progress in transforming itself into more of a consumer-based model driven more by cashless e-commerce," Roach said. "Their e-commerce share of total consumption is more than double ours [U.S.], and that gap is rising."

    The latest data show China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected 6.9 percent in the second quarter. The pace far exceeds where the United States is right now, with its economic growth rate at 1.42 percent.

    "The Chinese have defied a lot of naysaying for close to 40 years, and I think that will continue to be the case," he said. "All the talk about a crash landing, a slowdown, a debt-induced Japanese-like end game, those fears are largely overblown."

    But there appears to be at least one anomaly. The robust economic numbers haven't been reflected in the Shanghai composite index, which is up just 2 percent this year. Despite the sluggishness, he still says he's "pretty optimistic" and acknowledges that the Chinese stock market isn't as far along as he had hoped.

    "With the economy performing better than expected, the stock market should conform to that. But I've long learned that the connection between the Chinese economy and the stock market is a tenuous one at best," Roach said.

  4. #34
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    File this one under “Reading far, far too much into the tea leaves”

    Geostrategic Implications of China’s Twin Economic Challenges

    As China seeks to reorient the focus of its economy from investment and export to consumption, national security will become a more prominent strategic priority. The United States should recognize this shift and cooperate with China in its move toward a more sustainable growth path.
    Report by William J. Norris, Council on Foreign Affairs

    https://www.cfr.org/report/geostrate...-challenges-dp

    Comment.

    Let’s not read too much into the individual characteristics of Chinese leaders. These are very unlikely to be the monolithic machinations of a Machiavellian state, particularly during a once-in-a-decade leadership transition, and a once-in-a-40 years transition comprised of wide scale purges.

    That Xi Jinping is more outwardly aggressive than Hu Jintao is obvious. That it is because of the North Atlantic Financial Crisis is a bit of a stretch. Perhaps it’s just different personalities and styles. Perhaps it was useful for shoring up his credentials while he purged the military leadership.

    Perhaps no Chinese leader in all of history has ever adjusted his external policy positioning on the basis of how large of share of the economy is a bunch of foreign-owned factories dependent on export markets.

    That China’s exports-to-GDP should fall at a time when the global economy was in its first overall trade contraction since the 1950s should come as no surprise. Indeed, if trade/GDP did not collapse, it would imply that the rest of the economy wasn’t so much in free-fall as accelerating downhill at an alarming pace.

  5. #35
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    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1HR2LT

    MADRID/ATHENS (Reuters) - European Union and Italian authorities are investigating suspected wide-scale tax fraud by Chinese criminal gangs importing goods via Greece’s largest port of Piraeus, a trade gateway between China and Europe, officials said.....

  6. #36
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    China's first C/A deficit since 2001

    There’s been a lot of hoopla about China recording a current-account deficit in the first quarter of the year, the first one since the second quarter of 2001. But, as with most analysis of Chinese data, the fog is pretty thick.

    Here’s what I think is important.

    First, China exports of goods in 1988-2002 were 5.4 times as large as its export of services, and on the import side, 5.1 times as large. Merchandise exports averaged US$121.2 billion a year in those 15 years, and services $22.5 billion. Imports were $106.1 billion p.a. vs. $20.7 billion.

    In the following 15 years, 2003-17, the ratio on the export side was 9.8 times more goods than services, and 5.0 times as much on the imports side. In other words, the explosion in merchandise trade totally blew away the rise in services.

    Add in the small investment, income and transfers components that flesh out the current-account and the result is an increase in the average annual balance from $12.7 billion p.a. from the late 1980s to the early 2000s to $209.2 billion in the last 15 years.
    15 times more.
    Per year.

    But, what’s really important is the current-account balance averaged 8.9% a year in 2006-08, but only 2% in 2015-17.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  7. #37
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    I do believe both Gateway and Dell made their computers in the mid 80's through sometimes in the 90's here in South Dakota and Texas respectively. No doubt IBM also in the 80's before the profit margin went south on hardware.
    I work installing hardware for a lot of the major manufacturers for business use. Profits are indeed razor thin in the consumer home hardware market, but I have a theory why these companies don't give up on the consumer market.

    Profit margins are healthy in the business hardware market, and razor thin profits, break-even, or even slight losses on consumer hardware are tolerable as they serve as advertising for business hardware. If a hardware company makes a favorable impression on millions of consumers for their home PCs, laptops, printers, etc., they're more likely to get the contract at the places these consumers work. Virtually all workplaces use some sort of hardware sold by these same companies.

    In fewer words, consumer hardware is a loss leader that promotes the sale of business hardware.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 23 May 18, at 16:19.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

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