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  • #16
    Oh boy.................


    Ok, so make that 20 years of peaceful rise then, ~88 - 2008.
    June 4th 1989.


    Here Ross is referring to the lack of improvements of the navy capability in the Chinese forces since 2001. Chinese idea is to defend the sea from the land. And they made improvements in that sphere with the help of the russians with surface to air missiles etc.

    But its the naval improvements that really count and they are not there. That is to say nothing to give the Chinese any confidence at countering the americans.
    Not sure where this is heading..... but I will i take a stab at it:

    The Chinese is in no way trying counter the American on an one-to-one force basis, what they are doing is trying to pushing A2/AD further and further. It becomes more expensive and complicated at each additional step. At some point other powers will (and already have) step up and say stop. (again, I think they overplayed their hand)

    In that light, I am not seeing a chance of policy, what I am seeing is an increase of tempo, due to the US focus on elsewhere as the result of War On Terror . As I stated before, it is a juxtaposition for a growing power.... it is after all the world's largest trade nation. That being said, I do believe the Chinese (both PRC and ROC) do have the right to patrol the disputed Diao-Yu-Tai islands.


    Basically the chinese leaders panicked in the months after Sept 2008.
    If you recall some of the posts here in WAB during that period, you will not agree with Ross' notion of a panic. PM Wen's 560 Billion stimulus package and the lose credit policy that injected up to 2 trillion RMB into the banks was decisive and many cited as a perfect example of a keynesian economic model at work. There were no panic. The Chinese economy was out of the wood by 2009.

    The only panic I recall as an article from India claiming China would attack.... we talked about that one, remember?
    Last edited by xinhui; 05 Feb 13,, 19:20.
    “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
      Which china watchers would you recommend ?

      There is the mainstream, the fringe and the attention seeking. The layperson isn't well equipped to distinguish one from the other.
      Start with Cheng Li and Alice L. Miller.
      On a daily, newspaper basis, don't bother.
      Trust me?
      I'm an economist!

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      • #18
        Originally posted by DOR View Post
        Start with Cheng Li and Alice L. Miller.
        Thx DOR, that was the intent of my first question.

        Basically to get a list of names one could rely on to get a feel of what is happening with China.

        I see that Alice is from Hoover & Cheng is from Brookings.

        Originally posted by DOR View Post
        On a daily, newspaper basis, don't bother.
        yeah, there seems to be no shortage of china 'experts' out there trying to stir the pot.

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        • #19
          Is China Mobilizing For A War With Japan? | Zero Hedge
          Apparently there is mobilization and troop movements and speculation that war is days away.

          I guess careful what you wish is the moto that has been discarded.


          NTDTV February 8, 2013 News - the continental network transmission, Fujian and Zhejiang troops for several days active. Plus before the news that Chinese warships radar has repeatedly aimed at the Japanese ships and planes, therefore, the media have speculated that China may "prepare for war" Diaoyu Islands .



          According to friends broke the news: February 3, Nan'an, Fujian Highway 308, artillery units practical exercise for several days.


          February 3 to 6, Fujian, Xiamen, Zhangzhou, Huzhou, a large troop movements, nearly 100 vehicles of various types of military vehicles, armored vehicles, artillery filled the entire road, endless, Xiamen and even the scene of a traffic jam 10 kilometers.
          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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          • #20
            not sure why you keep posting "news" from the FLG mouthpiece.

            NTDTV February 8, 2013 News - the continental network transmission, Fujian and Zhejiang troops for several days active. Plus before the news that Chinese warships radar has repeatedly aimed at the Japanese ships and planes, therefore, the media have speculated that China may "prepare for war" Diaoyu Islands .
            “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by xinhui View Post
              not sure why you keep posting "news" from the FLG mouthpiece.
              it was mentioning troop movements and a lot of mobilization which seems a bit like overkill if the standoff is stabilizing. Escalation is what gets things started rolling down hill. IT seems that when you prepare for the worst by mobilizing and then use it as a confidence boost for yourself to escalate it does matter.

              Where else are you going to find news like this?
              Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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              • #22
                it is not news.

                Use your brain -- you don't need arty movement for naval and air engagements.

                "According to friends broke the news" According to friends??? Are you kidding me? Is that a creditable source?
                “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by xinhui View Post
                  In that light, I am not seeing a chance of policy, what I am seeing is an increase of tempo, due to the US focus on elsewhere as the result of War On Terror .
                  And you see that change in tempo as a natural progression due to ongoing military modernisation ?

                  Ross lists some of the Chinese reactions that got traction in '09-'10 but i guess you would call that cherry picking.

                  Another thing he mentioned was US rebalance actually started in '97, moving subs from atlantic into the pacific etc.

                  Originally posted by xinhui View Post
                  As I stated before, it is a juxtaposition for a growing power.... it is after all the world's largest trade nation. That being said, I do believe the Chinese (both PRC and ROC) do have the right to patrol the disputed Diao-Yu-Tai islands.
                  Yeah but that is just Japan specific, south china sea is also another area of contention.

                  Any change here compared to few years back or just more of the same.

                  Originally posted by xinhui View Post
                  If you recall some of the posts here in WAB during that period, you will not agree with Ross' notion of a panic. PM Wen's 560 Billion stimulus package and the lose credit policy that injected up to 2 trillion RMB into the banks was decisive and many cited as a perfect example of a keynesian economic model at work. There were no panic. The Chinese economy was out of the wood by 2009.
                  G20 met soon after and consensus was to do stimulus world wide.

                  Panic here is broader, CCP has to act in a way to counter any potential unrest.

                  Ross makes the argument that potential for unrest = appease the nationalists

                  Originally posted by xinhui View Post
                  The only panic I recall as an article from India claiming China would attack.... we talked about that one, remember?
                  Yes, the premise was domestic unrest due to faltering economy and the attack was to act as a diversion. But it was supposed to happen in 2017 if i recall correctly. I've come to see such alarmist scenarios as nothing more than budgetary politicking. Get GOI to commit to moderinisation and stick with it as the conventional superiority India had over its border areas between '80-'00 will quickly erode. Its already happening.

                  So Ross has a similar kind of argument if less extreme ie domestic unrest at home can and has lead to a more assertive China abroad.

                  The domestic unrest meme is a persistant one.

                  Domestic unrest in China is an existential threat probably the primary one China faces and has always faced. External actors are secondary. I'm coming to see that this is a major factor why China will probably not see more democracy or freedom in the future, regardless of how rich China becomes. In China's case the cons outweigh the pros. There will always be a watchful state paranoid for good reasons given China's history.
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 11 Feb 13,, 04:32.

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                  • #24
                    Economical collapse may not appeared YET...... but certainly environmentally collapse is......

                    BBC News - Smog and sandstorm engulf China's capital

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      So Ross has a similar kind of argument if less extreme ie domestic unrest at home can and has lead to a more assertive China abroad.

                      The domestic unrest meme is a persistant one.

                      Domestic unrest in China is an existential threat probably the primary one China faces and has always faced. External actors are secondary. I'm coming to see that this is a major factor why China will probably not see more democracy or freedom in the future, regardless of how rich China becomes. In China's case the cons outweigh the pros. There will always be a watchful state paranoid for good reasons given China's history.
                      That is a viable view, though a pessimistic one, I'm not sure i'm that pessimistic, they need to fire get the rule of law thing down certainly, after that things maybe a bit easier.

                      It should also note that it's easier for Nationlistic youth to talk crap when

                      A. thats one of the few crap they say that won't get censored
                      B. they're not obliged to put their own safety in the line of fire.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        Which china watchers would you recommend ?

                        There is the mainstream, the fringe and the attention seeking. The layperson isn't well equipped to distinguish one from the other.
                        May I recommend this one, he claims today ruling Chinese Communist Party is just a nothing but "Facist-cum-Feudal-cum-Bolshevik"(中文:法西斯封建布爾什維克)

                        Raymond Wong (politician) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

                        Very recently more than a million Chinese people viewed Hong Kong Politician Mr. Wong's speech regarding to the donations to Sichun Earthquake at Legislative Council of Hong Kong.

                        http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fb...type=1&theater

                        EDIT: Post the Youku Link: 1.75M viewing at the editing, sorry for Cantonese speech, Simpified Chinese sub-title.

                        http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTQ5ODQyNzAw.html
                        Last edited by Enzo Ferrari; 02 May 13,, 10:16. Reason: Additional information

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                        • #27
                          "......For example, Yang Kun, a vice president at Agricultural Bank of China, owed Macau casinos 3 billion yuan (US$490 million) in gambling debts......"

                          Seriously, This guy was what a crazy motherfxxxer.

                          Another things, dear all Westen Leftards, tell me, who the fxxx of Western Politicians could be corrupted as this Chinese?

                          Gamblers not so anonymous: Beijing keeps closer eye on Macau

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Enzo Ferrari View Post
                            May I recommend this one, he claims today ruling Chinese Communist Party is just a nothing but "Facist-cum-Feudal-cum-Bolshevik"(中文:法西斯封建布爾什維克)

                            Raymond Wong (politician) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

                            Very recently more than a million Chinese people viewed Hong Kong Politician Mr. Wong's speech regarding to the donations to Sichun Earthquake at Legislative Council of Hong Kong.

                            Facebook

                            EDIT: Post the Youku Link: 1.75M viewing at the editing, sorry for Cantonese speech, Simpified Chinese sub-title.

                            http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTQ5ODQyNzAw.html
                            By that logic, if ten million Americans watch a Youtube video of Osama Bin Laden, Al Qaeda must have ten million sleeper agents in the U.S.? :wors:

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                            • #29
                              =*= FLASH =*=

                              KIWIS INVADE CHINA

                              =*= FLASH =*=

                              HMNZS Te Mana entered Hong Kong's Victoria Harbour this week, meeting only token resistance (the Star Ferry was crossing from Central to TST). The pride of New Zealand summoned city leaders on board last night and ensured their unstinting cooperation by means of an intimidating haka.

                              Those showing a willingness to accept the inevitable (your correspondent was among that number) were rewarded with traditional foods and drink, including a lovely pinot noir and a quenching Tui.
                              Trust me?
                              I'm an economist!

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by DOR View Post
                                =*= FLASH =*=

                                KIWIS INVADE CHINA

                                =*= FLASH =*=

                                HMNZS Te Mana entered Hong Kong's Victoria Harbour this week, meeting only token resistance (the Star Ferry was crossing from Central to TST). The pride of New Zealand summoned city leaders on board last night and ensured their unstinting cooperation by means of an intimidating haka.

                                Those showing a willingness to accept the inevitable (your correspondent was among that number) were rewarded with traditional foods and drink, including a lovely pinot noir and a quenching Tui.
                                Maoris are big and scary. Smile & do as they say & you'll probably be OK....unless you are on a Rugby field. Then you are completely on your own.

                                Did the 'traditional foods' include a hangi, or is a spare bit of ground a bit hard to come by in HK?

                                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H%C4%81ngi

                                The make some decent beer too. :)
                                Last edited by Bigfella; 03 May 13,, 14:54.
                                sigpic

                                Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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