Oh boy.................
June 4th 1989.
Not sure where this is heading..... but I will i take a stab at it:
The Chinese is in no way trying counter the American on an one-to-one force basis, what they are doing is trying to pushing A2/AD further and further. It becomes more expensive and complicated at each additional step. At some point other powers will (and already have) step up and say stop. (again, I think they overplayed their hand)
In that light, I am not seeing a chance of policy, what I am seeing is an increase of tempo, due to the US focus on elsewhere as the result of War On Terror . As I stated before, it is a juxtaposition for a growing power.... it is after all the world's largest trade nation. That being said, I do believe the Chinese (both PRC and ROC) do have the right to patrol the disputed Diao-Yu-Tai islands.
If you recall some of the posts here in WAB during that period, you will not agree with Ross' notion of a panic. PM Wen's 560 Billion stimulus package and the lose credit policy that injected up to 2 trillion RMB into the banks was decisive and many cited as a perfect example of a keynesian economic model at work. There were no panic. The Chinese economy was out of the wood by 2009.
The only panic I recall as an article from India claiming China would attack.... we talked about that one, remember?
Ok, so make that 20 years of peaceful rise then, ~88 - 2008.
Here Ross is referring to the lack of improvements of the navy capability in the Chinese forces since 2001. Chinese idea is to defend the sea from the land. And they made improvements in that sphere with the help of the russians with surface to air missiles etc.
But its the naval improvements that really count and they are not there. That is to say nothing to give the Chinese any confidence at countering the americans.
But its the naval improvements that really count and they are not there. That is to say nothing to give the Chinese any confidence at countering the americans.
The Chinese is in no way trying counter the American on an one-to-one force basis, what they are doing is trying to pushing A2/AD further and further. It becomes more expensive and complicated at each additional step. At some point other powers will (and already have) step up and say stop. (again, I think they overplayed their hand)
In that light, I am not seeing a chance of policy, what I am seeing is an increase of tempo, due to the US focus on elsewhere as the result of War On Terror . As I stated before, it is a juxtaposition for a growing power.... it is after all the world's largest trade nation. That being said, I do believe the Chinese (both PRC and ROC) do have the right to patrol the disputed Diao-Yu-Tai islands.
Basically the chinese leaders panicked in the months after Sept 2008.
The only panic I recall as an article from India claiming China would attack.... we talked about that one, remember?
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