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J. Michael Cole Strikes Out Again.

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  • #16
    Originally posted by RollingWave View Post
    yeah but this isn't the 1950s anymore, after 60 years you figure there are enough advancement in other areas that may make previously unstable / unreliable technology work. (it should be noted, my uncle is actually working on that project I think, he showed me ramjet stuff a years ago, though at that point he was saying that they're thinking about using it for ultra high speed flak shells or something.)
    My apologies for the late reply.

    A ramjet flak shell would be a good idea.

    The problem with a long range ground attack ramjet missile is that no matter how reliable you make, it will continue to have various limitations that comes with ramjet engines. The fundamental disadvantage of a ramjet is that unlike a subsonic turbofan cruise missile, you can't hide by flying low, and unlike a ballistic missile, you take longer and you stay inside the atmosphere, allowing various AD assets multiple opportunities to engage you. And ramjet cruise missiles are typically not very maneuverable.

    Now ramjets don't too well at subsonic speeds, so trying to fly low like a BGM-109 isn't going to work (if you fly it at 45-50m high, you'll cut the range by a third to a half possibly), and the report states that the Cloud Peak will be high altitude .

    So you're flying the Cloud Peak at 10 km, maybe even 15 km altitude, so there's no way you can hide it (even if you were able to decrease RCS significantly, it would escalate costs uncontrollably). However, unlike a ballistic missile, the PRC will have a relatively longer response time, about 30 minutes to go across 1,200km.

    That 30 minutes not only allows for PLAAF SAMs to shoot, and shoot again at the Cloud Peak, it means that J-8s, J-10s and J-11s can be vectored in, get the Cloud Peak within the no escape zone of their PL-11/PL-12s (heck, even the PL-10 SRAAM might be enough) and kill it. Unlike manned fighters or even UCAVs, the ramjet Cloud Peak can't really maneuver out of danger (its ECM suite is likely to be minimal). The Cloud Peak might have been a decent idea against the PLAAF of ten years ago which didn't have much in the way of AEWC or BVRAAMs, but nowadays you're better off with a UCAV or buying more HF-IIE subsonic cruise missiles.

    Incidentally, the ROCAF currently has three HF-IIE squadrons, total program cost is about $1 billion, IIRC.

    The Cloud Peak will also be very heavy, at least in the 5 to 10 ton range if you want to fly at Mach 3 and go 1,200km (along with expectations of a range increase to 2,000km in the future). The Brahmos weighs about three tons, has a 300kg warhead and it only goes to 300-400km (the P-700 Granit weighs at 7 tons, Mach 2.5 and has a range of about 600km, but it does carry a 750kg warhead). That would pretty much confine the Cloud Peak to bases, and that raises questions about survivability before you even get to fire it off (unless you want to launch a first strike on the Mainland, which is a diplomatic nightmare).

    A 10 ton ramjet cruise missile could cost at least $10-20 million, depending on how you factor development and maintenance. And unlike a UCAV, it's strictly a one shot weapon, and less survivable.

    If you wanted, say, three Cloud Peak squadrons (one or two might not be a credible deterrent), you might have to pony up at least $3 billion for procurement and development. In the current ROC budget environment, that's putting a lot of eggs into one basket.

    Taiwan Working On New ‘Cloud Peak’ Missile | Defense News | defensenews.com

    Let's look at the Cloud Peak's specs.

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    • #17
      15 km doesn't seem very reasonable for a ramjet powered drone. I'd have expected something along the lines of the old D-21; M 3.3 at 90,000 feet.
      The more I think about it, ol' Billy was right.
      Let's kill all the lawyers, kill 'em tonight.
      - The Eagles

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Major Dad View Post
        15 km doesn't seem very reasonable for a ramjet powered drone. I'd have expected something along the lines of the old D-21; M 3.3 at 90,000 feet.
        I doubt it, since Taiwan really doesn't have any aircraft big enough to launch the 5 ton D-21 (which didn't have a warhead), and that thing wasn't very reliable in the first place.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
          I doubt it, since Taiwan really doesn't have any aircraft big enough to launch the 5 ton D-21
          They don't necessarily need one.
          http://chivethebrigade.files.wordpre...cept-920-5.jpg

          Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
          and that thing wasn't very reliable in the first place.
          The airframe and powerplant were, it was the guidance and recovery systems that were problematic. And that was 50 years ago.
          The more I think about it, ol' Billy was right.
          Let's kill all the lawyers, kill 'em tonight.
          - The Eagles

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Major Dad View Post
            They don't necessarily need one.
            http://chivethebrigade.files.wordpre...cept-920-5.jpg



            The airframe and powerplant were, it was the guidance and recovery systems that were problematic. And that was 50 years ago.
            That's the D-21B right? It still needed a B-52 to carry the drone and its booster. With the rocket booster, it weighed at about 11 tons.

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            • #21
              This time, Cole has outdone himself in stupidity by listing weapons that Taiwan doesn't have. Now it's not hard to see why the best job a former CSIS officer can get is a gig at the Taipei Times, where to hear off the record chatter from other pan green journalists, he's disliked for making them look inept through association. :slap:

              Five Taiwanese Weapons of War China Should Fear | The National Interest

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