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  • Stalin's three plans

    Fairly interesting essay.What I found of value were the quotes from the Soviet OPLAN's.First time I actually read something from the documents themselves.Granted,I'd like to read all of them in detail,but this millenium is only at the beggining.

    Mark Solonin. Historian's personal webpage.Comrade Stalin's Three Plans
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  • #2
    Would Stalin's pre-emptive invasion have resulted in a much greater Soviet loss? Given the way the red army performed against Finland, a war against the wehrmacht would have been a bloody slog.

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    • #3
      Read again...

      He was not about to start a clash with Germans at once, but to support them in their defeat. All that while he upgrades his armies.

      The longer the war in Europe lasts the better for Stalin.
      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Doktor View Post
        Read again...

        He was not about to start a clash with Germans at once, but to support them in their defeat. All that while he upgrades his armies.

        The longer the war in Europe lasts the better for Stalin.
        I've only skimmed it so far, but it seems like that was only option 1. Option 2 and 3 were a direct war with Germany.

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        • #5
          Author makes a strong case, not sure if I buy it, but its a well researched piece.

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          • #6
            a pre-emptive soviet offensive via germany would be a huge gift to hitler-- germany's problem was not being able to eliminate soviet reserves without over-stretching, and in that scenario stalin would be handing him millions of poorly trained, poorly led troops on a silver platter.

            it wouldn't be a bagration, that'd be for sure.
            There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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            • #7
              Originally posted by astralis View Post
              a pre-emptive soviet offensive via germany would be a huge gift to hitler-- germany's problem was not being able to eliminate soviet reserves without over-stretching, and in that scenario stalin would be handing him millions of poorly trained, poorly led troops on a silver platter.
              I can just imagine wave after wave of Soviet troops hitting a wall of German MG and artillery fire, Stuka's etc, while German armor swings around and tears into the flanks like a combine in a wheatfield.

              ...while sitting comfortably within proverbial walking distance of their (the German's) supply lines.
              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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              • #8
                Contrary to the statements made in the article, this issue HAS been extensively researched. What has been researched, however, is boring old stuff like how fully staffed divisions were, how close they were to their TO&Es, the state of that equipment etc. Turns out the Red Army was in no shape to defend against Germany & friends, let alone attack them. There were plans to attack... just as there were plans to defend, but the Red Army was up to neither. Worse, the defensive plans involved forward deployments that guaranteed units were out of position to properly defend anyway. Stalin may well have planed to invade west at some point, but the evidence that it was at this particular point simply doesn't hold up.
                sigpic

                Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
                  Contrary to the statements made in the article, this issue HAS been extensively researched. What has been researched, however, is boring old stuff like how fully staffed divisions were, how close they were to their TO&Es, the state of that equipment etc. Turns out the Red Army was in no shape to defend against Germany & friends, let alone attack them. There were plans to attack... just as there were plans to defend, but the Red Army was up to neither. Worse, the defensive plans involved forward deployments that guaranteed units were out of position to properly defend anyway. Stalin may well have planed to invade west at some point, but the evidence that it was at this particular point simply doesn't hold up.
                  True, there always are plans galore, but the new thing the article claims is that there were actual soviet movements towards the border. Plans, therefore, were put into motion, only too late.

                  It would be interesting to see how Churchill could've roped in Stalin in this scenario, Stalin now being the aggressor. Possibly Stalin would have been much more compliant with British demands once his divisions got smashed on the Vistula.

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                  • #10
                    It has been well established that by going to war against US,Japan is going to have two cities nuked.Thus,at Dec. 7 1941,Japan cannot attack Pearl Harbor.

                    What could have been is everybody's guess.But if somehow USSR gets a worse position than what historically got... Let's see.Not going to lose land up to Moscow,Volga and Caucasus.Not going to remove its industrial base thousands of kms.Not losing one sixth of its population.Having its full population at disposal,meaning they don't have Ukraine and Belorussia under the Axis for 2-3 years.

                    Second observation,resulting from the work of Glantz and the like.In June 1941 the Red Army wasn't in it's best shape.the question that needs to be answered is when the Soviets actually cared about such details?They had superiority in aircraft,artillery and tanks in their Western theater and were about to reach parity in infantry.They were good to go as far as they were concerned.They weren't afraid of the Axis.
                    Those who know don't speak
                    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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                    • #11
                      mihais,

                      They were good to go as far as they were concerned.They weren't afraid of the Axis.
                      stalin KNEW his army was gutted from the bloody coups of the decade past. he didn't plan on war with the germans until at least 1943-1944. he wanted to time to digest his share of poland, and to reorganize/re-equip his armies.

                      that's part of the reason why he was more than generous in giving Germany raw materials even when it became clear the relationship was going south fast, and was so stupefied when hitler did invade.
                      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by cataphract View Post
                        True, there always are plans galore, but the new thing the article claims is that there were actual soviet movements towards the border. Plans, therefore, were put into motion, only too late.
                        I didn't check the date on the article so I don't know when this was considered 'new', but I've seen it discussed at length elsewhere before now. Soviet doctrine included an aggressive 'forward defence'.
                        sigpic

                        Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
                          I didn't check the date on the article so I don't know when this was considered 'new', but I've seen it discussed at length elsewhere before now. Soviet doctrine included an aggressive 'forward defence'.
                          The article is from 2011.
                          Could you provide a link supporting a Soviet 'aggressive forward defence' doctrine? My (quite limited) understanding is that Soviet doctrine was based on defence in depth.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by astralis View Post
                            mihais,



                            stalin KNEW his army was gutted from the bloody coups of the decade past. he didn't plan on war with the germans until at least 1943-1944. he wanted to time to digest his share of poland, and to reorganize/re-equip his armies.

                            that's part of the reason why he was more than generous in giving Germany raw materials even when it became clear the relationship was going south fast, and was so stupefied when hitler did invade.
                            Astralis,I know what you say.I just find the sources that support that school of thought unreliable and inconclusive.Until more sources get in the open and there's not much sign they were doctored.

                            About the purges,I have a question.Could you(or anybody elese) name the marshalls of the USSR and the Army generals killed?Also,more important,where these comrades achieved fame on the battlefield?

                            I was reading a book about these fellows.Very ''colourful'' characters,to say the least ;) .Not many future Zhukovs and Vasilevsky's among them.

                            I also know the thing about Stalin being afraid.The deployment of Soviet troops and the reaction he had do not support this assertion,on the contrary.Surprised,yes.But you can't fear somebody,then be surprised when he attacks.
                            Those who know don't speak
                            He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by cataphract View Post
                              The article is from 2011.
                              Could you provide a link supporting a Soviet 'aggressive forward defence' doctrine? My (quite limited) understanding is that Soviet doctrine was based on defence in depth.

                              Its extrapolated for the way Cold war Soviet formations were set up. The Red Army had truly impressive bridging and engineering assets and had their divisions in echelon- those closest to the border with NATO were more fully staffed than those farther into the interior.

                              However this TOE reflects the lessons of WWII and is not a good guide for Soviet doctrine or plans before WWII and the horrors it visited on the Rodina.

                              Also I find the argument, that Stalin knew his army was gutted somewhat lacking. That didn't stop him in Finland. While the Winter War was undoutably a shock, it did not stop him from launching the Continuation War in the late spring of 41.

                              Would Stalin have actually attacked in the summer of 41... I doubt it, the reality is the Red Army was not ready, but it is equally likely that Stalin may have thought he could change this by force of will and NKVD enforcers. The deployments to the border definitely look offensive in nature.

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