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Fiscal Cliff Averted?

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  • #61
    So now onto the debt ceiling. Obama is saying he will not negotiate. Will he stick to this or will he cave? Will the Republicans really refuse to raise the debt ceiling and plunge the economy into the abyss?

    Comment


    • #62
      Your question is false. Try to rephrase.
      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by Doktor View Post
        Your question is false. Try to rephrase.
        Why? Almost everyone agrees that not raising the debt ceiling would be catastrophic.

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by astralis View Post
          pari,
          ......it forms another piece of evidence for the case that austerity, more often than not, is harmful both to the cause of reviving an economy as well as the longer-term issue of debt.
          It attempts to be yes, but all it in fact does is misreprent a paper critiquing methodology by claiming it's a gotcha moment when it's no such thing. Would you prefer the IMF never examined it's own methodology?
          In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

          Leibniz

          Comment


          • #65
            Meanwhile
            http://www.economics.harvard.edu/fac...Aug%2B2012.pdf

            This paper studies whether fiscal corrections cause large output losses. We find that it matters crucially how the fiscal correction oc- curs. Adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly in terms of output losses than tax-based ones. Spending-based adjust- ments have been associated with mild and short-lived recessions, in many cases with no recession at all. Tax-based adjustments have been associated with prolonged and deep recessions. The difference cannot be explained by different monetary policies during the two types of adjustments. Studying the effects of multi-year fiscal plans rather than individual shifts in fiscal variables we make progress on ques- tion of anticipated versus unanticipated policy shifts: we find that the correlation between unanticipated and anticipated shifts in taxes and spending is heterogenous across countries, suggesting that the degree of persistence of fiscal corrections varies..Estimating the effects of fis- cal plans, rather than individual fiscal shocks, we obtain much more precise estimates of tax and spending multipliers.
            In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

            Leibniz

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by InExile View Post
              Why? Almost everyone agrees that not raising the debt ceiling would be catastrophic.
              Obama wont negotiate and that's good. Republicans wont negotiate and that's bad?
              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                Obama wont negotiate and that's good. Republicans wont negotiate and that's bad?
                Remember that old meme, "Buy our product or we'll shoot this dog?"

                GOPers are pulling the same trick: Do it our way, or we wreck the place.

                Call it extortion and be done with it. There is no economic sense to refusing to pay bills incurred years, even decades ago.

                If the GOP can't win enough votes to impose its will within the parameters of 50% +1, then it needs to either grow up and accept democracy, or announce that it is no longer a pro-democracy party.
                Trust me?
                I'm an economist!

                Comment


                • #68
                  Well, the offer fr chained cpi and means tesating for medicare were on the table and the party that cant take yes for an answer once more couldnt and lo and behold once more the senate prevents the house from melting our economy with a lame toothless pass the buck measure like sequester was when the house confuses itself with a parliment. Of course now we will get all the spending cuts from entitlements said no realist in the debt limit debate. How about if congress just doesnt spend the money rather than the ridiculous tactic of authorizing the spending then refusing to raise the funds to spend money they have directed the goverment to spend? The savings from the last time they held the full faith and credit of the USA hostage were less than the increased interest the tactic resulted in. I feel for Boehner twice he tried to get a grand bargain and twice his herd of cats prevented it. Entitlements and defense are getting trimmed long term and "tax reform" must result in still more revenue. The fact is payng twice as much ourt rials acrss the bard on the same drugs and the same services is an albatross as is spending what the next 23 nations combined spend on defense. It's time to live with in our means and pay for the germent t he majority want and they want social security and they want medicare. Fantasies about mnassive cuts are fantasies they are hugeley unpopular when they get spelled out. We were s close to cutting the inflatn rate on socail security and having some evel of means testing but unlike the folks makikng under 113k who experienced a 2.5 percent t ax increase the herd of cats was fine with God forbid anyone making more than 400k pay higher taxes. What I find somewhat ironic is the massive social security surplus as the elephant in the rom everyone ignores when saying the program is broke....perhaps the folks who got that cash in tax cuts should be the ones requirted to pay it back? Myself, Chrs Christie is looking god atm for not pandering to the loons at either end of the spectrum. More realists and less idealogues would make the fix so much easier
                  Where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost.”
                  ~Ronald Reagan

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by DOR View Post
                    Remember that old meme, "Buy our product or we'll shoot this dog?"

                    GOPers are pulling the same trick: Do it our way, or we wreck the place.

                    Call it extortion and be done with it. There is no economic sense to refusing to pay bills incurred years, even decades ago.

                    If the GOP can't win enough votes to impose its will within the parameters of 50% +1, then it needs to either grow up and accept democracy, or announce that it is no longer a pro-democracy party.
                    won't happen they rely on business donations for elections and if they take the economy hostage and then kill it they will dry up. No one is going to be opening their wallet for the terrorists who hjacked their interest rates up and created more debt by increasing the cost of servicing it. The wall st. journal has already fired the first warning shots
                    Where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost.”
                    ~Ronald Reagan

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      The Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution mainly deals with citizenship and who is (not) eligible to hold elected office. But, it also contains this:


                      Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

                      Section 5. The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.



                      Section 4 says there is no authority higher than the Constitution that shall determine whether the US pays its debts. If the GOPers want to default, they have no choice but to amend the Constitution. Section 5 does not grant the right to impose, change or restrict the size of the nation debt, only to enforce the law.
                      Trust me?
                      I'm an economist!

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Then mint the trillion dollar platinum coin and be done with the theatrics. Then the rest of us can get on.....
                        In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                        Leibniz

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Agreed. I wanted to pay my way but not enough people agreed with me so now we pay somebody else's way.

                          As long as it's paid. Although I'd prefer a sunsetted VAT specifically so everyone gets stung a little.

                          -dale

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by dalem View Post
                            Agreed. I wanted to pay my way but not enough people agreed with me so now we pay somebody else's way.

                            As long as it's paid. Although I'd prefer a sunsetted VAT specifically so everyone gets stung a little.

                            -dale
                            Ah, VAT: the ultimate regressive tax. Hurts the poor almost as much as import tariffs, while not even being noticed by the rich.
                            Trust me?
                            I'm an economist!

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Then again, no taxes seems to hurt the poor more. Judging by the reactions.

                              Import tariffs are not to hurt anyone, but to keep balance floating and protect domestic production. Or so they say.
                              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by DOR View Post
                                Ah, VAT: the ultimate regressive tax. Hurts the poor almost as much as import tariffs, while not even being noticed by the rich.
                                Fuck the poor. This is their bill too.

                                -dale

                                Comment

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