I wrote on this a while ago a few years perhaps. That sooner or later there would be signs of Europe trying to ascertain more geopolitical weight on its' own and thus would try to go native on its' own military alliance.
It does seem that it will be very slow in coming but you can see the horizon a bit.
from this year
EUobserver.com / Defence / Five EU countries call for new military 'structure'
I found this a bit 'revanchist', especially if you consider the "Sometimes we must use force to back our diplomacy" line, very acute. My feeling is that if the elections in Ukraine don't go the way we like we should be able to force change via military means. Perhaps he thought about other things as well.
from last year
'Big five' tell Baroness Ashton to bypass Britain over EU military HQ - Telegraph
If the EU cracks in my view Nato splits and we get a new geopolitical military alliance actor. Spain going through Gibraltars water territory, and Poland getting antsy, does not bode well.
I expect Norway to stay in Nato, same with Ireland and UK.
Curious what Sweden and Finland do as well.
My guess is first there will be political wrangling over whom dominates asset use agenda and then there is an open split and a new alliance seperates from the old one. However there is a possibility of simply Nato-Eu reorganizing along Countries+Block route ergo Eu countries in Nato can go into Eu while it would be the umbrella for them under Nato with others having a direct Nato subordination without joining Eu military.
It does seem that it will be very slow in coming but you can see the horizon a bit.
from this year
EUobserver.com / Defence / Five EU countries call for new military 'structure'
Five EU countries call for new military 'structure'
16.11.12 @ 09:26
BRUSSELS - Five leading EU countries, but not the UK, have said the Union needs a new military "structure" to manage overseas operations.
The foreign and defence ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain issued the call in a joint communique after a meeting in Paris on Thursday (15 November).
The paper says: "We are convinced that the EU must set up, within a framework yet to-be-defined, true civilian-military structures to plan and conduct missions and operations."
It adds: "We should show preparedness to hold available, train, deploy and sustain in theatre the necessary civilian and military means."
16.11.12 @ 09:26
BRUSSELS - Five leading EU countries, but not the UK, have said the Union needs a new military "structure" to manage overseas operations.
The foreign and defence ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain issued the call in a joint communique after a meeting in Paris on Thursday (15 November).
The paper says: "We are convinced that the EU must set up, within a framework yet to-be-defined, true civilian-military structures to plan and conduct missions and operations."
It adds: "We should show preparedness to hold available, train, deploy and sustain in theatre the necessary civilian and military means."
The reference to new "civilian-military structures" comes after the UK last year blocked the creation of a new operational headquarters (OHQ) in Brussels for EU military missions.
Britain's Telegraph newspaper earlier this week cited a "senior French source" as saying that EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton supports the idea of an OHQ, which will become a "ripe fruit" in the "long-term" as EU military operations multiply.
Britain's Telegraph newspaper earlier this week cited a "senior French source" as saying that EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton supports the idea of an OHQ, which will become a "ripe fruit" in the "long-term" as EU military operations multiply.
For his part, Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski said: "If the EU wants to become a superpower, and Poland supports this, then we must have the capability to exert influence in our neighbourhood ... Sometimes we must use force to back our diplomacy."
He called for an "ambitious" EU budget for 2014 to 2020 to help with defence co-ordination.
Speaking in a separate interview in UK newspaper The Times also on Thursday, Sikorski blamed British "nostalgia" for past greatness as a reason why it is pulling back from EU integration and why it wants to cut the EU budget.
He called for an "ambitious" EU budget for 2014 to 2020 to help with defence co-ordination.
Speaking in a separate interview in UK newspaper The Times also on Thursday, Sikorski blamed British "nostalgia" for past greatness as a reason why it is pulling back from EU integration and why it wants to cut the EU budget.
He touched on historic sensitivities by describing EU spending as a kind of "Marshall plan."
He said Poland and other former-Soviet-controlled EU countries missed out on the plan - a massive injection of US money to rebuild Europe after World War II - because UK and US leaders at a summit in Yalta in 1945 gave the Soviet Union control of eastern Europe.
"We fought Hitler alone, giving you [the UK] valuable time to prepare for fighting. But we did not enjoy freedom after World War II ... Because of Yalta, we could not benefit [from the Marshall plan]. European cohesion funds are our Marshall plan for catching up with Europe," he noted.
He said Poland and other former-Soviet-controlled EU countries missed out on the plan - a massive injection of US money to rebuild Europe after World War II - because UK and US leaders at a summit in Yalta in 1945 gave the Soviet Union control of eastern Europe.
"We fought Hitler alone, giving you [the UK] valuable time to prepare for fighting. But we did not enjoy freedom after World War II ... Because of Yalta, we could not benefit [from the Marshall plan]. European cohesion funds are our Marshall plan for catching up with Europe," he noted.
from last year
'Big five' tell Baroness Ashton to bypass Britain over EU military HQ - Telegraph
If the EU cracks in my view Nato splits and we get a new geopolitical military alliance actor. Spain going through Gibraltars water territory, and Poland getting antsy, does not bode well.
I expect Norway to stay in Nato, same with Ireland and UK.
Curious what Sweden and Finland do as well.
My guess is first there will be political wrangling over whom dominates asset use agenda and then there is an open split and a new alliance seperates from the old one. However there is a possibility of simply Nato-Eu reorganizing along Countries+Block route ergo Eu countries in Nato can go into Eu while it would be the umbrella for them under Nato with others having a direct Nato subordination without joining Eu military.
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