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Thread: Ukraine Elections 2012 Oct 28th

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    Ukraine Elections 2012 Oct 28th

    Big-hitting Klitschko surges in polls before Ukraine election | Reuters

    (Reuters) - The Western-style liberal party of heavyweight boxing champion Vitaly Klitschko has surged in popularity to second place behind President Viktor Yanukovich's party ahead of Ukraine's October 28 parliamentary election, polls showed on Monday.

    Klitschko, a relative political novice, has been highly critical of Yanukovich's leadership and is focusing his party's campaign on fighting high-level corruption in the former Soviet republic of 46 million people.

    Yanukovich's Party of the Regions and its allies are seeking to retain a majority in Ukraine's 450-seat parliament to cement his leadership and the interests of industrialists and big business who support him.

    They are opposed by Klitschko's UDAR (Punch) and a combined bloc which includes the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party of jailed former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

    A survey published by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation on Monday indicated that UDAR had the support of 16.0 percent of the voters, while the Regions stood at 23.3 percent. It showed UDAR had overtaken the United Opposition bloc, which includes Batkivshchyna, whose support had slipped to 15.1 percent.
    Klitchko is not eastern or western style, he is just or seems at least honest.
    If they look out for interests of the country and small business they will be the first party to actually try to represent the people that voted for them. My guess is on certain issues they go one way on others another, whichever benefits their constituency which is how it should be.

    In essence they can be the deciding factor between two major factions which is a nice thing, ergo an arbiter which helps gets things done.

    Time will tell I guess.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    Time will tell I guess.
    This is a pivotal election. It is widely perceived that corruption and cronyism have drastically increased under Yanukovych. The EU nations (especially Germany) have stated that there will be no economic agreements or other benefits accorded to Ukraine as long as opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko remains in prison. 3,500 international observers are on hand to monitor this election. 41 year old Vitali Klitschko (born in Kazakhstan) is perceived as untainted by the main parties and has been gaining ground. He has stated that he would definitely not form an alliance with the Party of Regions, and has not yet decided about the United Opposition. In previous foray's into politics, Mr. Klitschko lost two elections for mayor of Kyiv. Another smaller party that is gaining ground (God forbid) is Svoboda, which has a passionate stance on Ukrainian culture and language. But Svoboda is also well known for racism and antisemitism, and considers Jews and Russians as occupiers in Ukraine. In a message delivered to Ukrainians by her daughter, Mrs. Tymoshenko has called on the people to oust Yanukovych and his corrupt government.

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    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Voting will commence shortly. At stake is the 450-seat parliamentary assembly. Seeking to secure additional votes prior to the election, the sitting Party of Regions upped the salaries of public sector employees which further burdened the budget deficit. The Regions party has also promised to make Russian an official state language. Wealthy oligarchs, who can afford and benefit from corruption, strongly support the PoR. Then again, I suppose it's not too difficult to secure victory when the main opposition threat is incarcerated in Kharkiv.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    This is a pivotal election. It is widely perceived that corruption and cronyism have drastically increased under Yanukovych. The EU nations (especially Germany) have stated that there will be no economic agreements or other benefits accorded to Ukraine as long as opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko remains in prison. 3,500 international observers are on hand to monitor this election. 41 year old Vitali Klitschko (born in Kazakhstan) is perceived as untainted by the main parties and has been gaining ground. He has stated that he would definitely not form an alliance with the Party of Regions, and has not yet decided about the United Opposition. In previous foray's into politics, Mr. Klitschko lost two elections for mayor of Kyiv. Another smaller party that is gaining ground (God forbid) is Svoboda, which has a passionate stance on Ukrainian culture and language. But Svoboda is also well known for racism and antisemitism, and considers Jews and Russians as occupiers in Ukraine. In a message delivered to Ukrainians by her daughter, Mrs. Tymoshenko has called on the people to oust Yanukovych and his corrupt government.
    Svoboda will continue to gain ground. Their support is very very regional and local upwards. They started building their party very wisely. They control 3 city councils and will likely control far more as well as a few regional councils. They are slowly growing and building their power base. However being that they are hard core crazy nationalists they will have a very tough time breaking out of those western provinces

    Yanukovich and Yushenkos corruption is similar one has his gang the other had his relatives (out of like 20 ministers 17 were his relatives in the prior cabinet fyi) I don't remember the exact amount but it was a joke. The reality is he was more accomodative to Europe and didn't bargain at all which is why he was perceived western leaning.

    FTA that was offered Ukraine was a joke.

    Klitshko said he would work with anyone to improve the situation and didn't really rule anything out.

    It is very likely that Russian will become official for lots of reasons. Education (where people want their kids to learn and in what language) and Law (where you fill out forms and get services from gov't) are just two very minor aspects.

    http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vnd2012/wp001.html


    - WWW " 2012"

    http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40009&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=44c79c11855e11e3a79695eb177c45fd
    Klitschko did the smart thing by going to elections alone. He will get more votes and can always pick a side later.
    What United Opposition did was beyond stupid in my view, they tried to allocate 12% to his party while it is polling about 16% so he gave them the finger. If he gets more than they why should he have a junior role in the coalition? because they are so smart and were at the helm already under a prior govt? pro western proven views?

    Like I said time will tell.
    Last edited by cyppok; 28 Oct 12, at 20:06.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vnd2012/wp300pt001f01=900.html
    about 20% or so counted so far.

    Batkyvhshina 20.5 is second and Udar 12.3 is 4th. Communists 15.5 are 3rd and Party of Regions is 1st with 37.
    Svoboda is around 7
    Last edited by cyppok; 29 Oct 12, at 06:12.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    - WWW " 2012"
    about 20% or so counted so far. Batkyvhshina 20.5 is second and Udar 12.3 is 4th. Communists 15.5 are 3rd and Party of Regions is 1st with 37.
    Svoboda is around 7
    Here is what I get from a Russian language source: Party of Regions - ~36.61%, Batkyvhshina - 21.02%, CPU - 15.28%, Udar Party - 12.64%, Svoboda - 7.58%

    So far, no domestic/international complaints of massive fraud.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    Here is what I get from a Russian language source: Party of Regions - ~36.61%, Batkyvhshina - 21.02%, CPU - 15.28%, Udar Party - 12.64%, Svoboda - 7.58%

    So far, no domestic/international complaints of massive fraud.
    Yes they went from 20 to 33% counted, if you notice.

    So far the biggest winner is Svoboda it seems, they might make it to parliament, also Communists are getting lots of resonance with the poor, old, rural.
    Batkyvshina is actually not doing good they would need about 25-27% (also have to consider that they merged with Yatsenuk(Front of Change) whom had about 8-11% so Udar did the right thing staying out)

    We went from soft nationalist to hard nationalists if you consider "our ukraine" Yushenko's party.
    Svoboda is not a good thing but at least an outlet for them I guess.

    Regions will win the lion's share of directly elected representatives, not due to fraud its' just lots of very popular local politicians being represented especially regions like Odessa and Crimea. Language issue gave them a lot of 'potential' goodwill for the future.

    P.S.
    I am looking at single mandate directly elected results so far and its VERY VERY Interesting.
    [below are leaders not final yet]

    It looks like Poroshenko is going to be elected (self-directed) essentially independent so far.
    One guys in Crimea similar circumstance his own self made party though.
    5 out of 8 in Vinnitsa are independents (self-directed) in the lead (basically Poroshenko and his people)
    3 of 5 in Volyn (self-directed)
    Litvin[former speaker] seems like he will make it by himself
    Baloga family in Carpathia also self-written-in two people

    anyways lots of (self-directed) which is good.

    Very interesting in Cherkassy and Chernihov a lot of (self-directed)

    Wondering what happens after all these (self-directed) people make it in will they join different factions?
    Most of the direct elected are Party of Regions though and some Batkyvchina the rest (self-directed) and Svoboda here and there, with Udar very few.


    By the way if Regions gets 60%+ of directly elected and 30%+ of party list (which it does look like they are getting)
    they will have about 205+/450 my guess is they will have enough to change the constitution if Communists and a few others vote with them, at least on the language issue.
    Last edited by cyppok; 29 Oct 12, at 09:36.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    Language issue gave them a lot of 'potential' goodwill for the future.
    I can easily understand the language carrot. Zaporozhye is a predominantly Russian speaking oblast.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    I can easily understand the language carrot. Zaporozhye is a predominantly Russian speaking oblast.
    Its not really a carrot you have to consider the amount of frustration people go through. Filling out paperwork to privatize(land) or other stuff and bureaucrats playing dictionary on the forms, where even people who give you something don't know what it means. In essence it boils down to somewhat 'legal dictionary inspired extortion'. Same thing with permits and other stuff, and the school issue simply effects everyone with kids.

    I got an uncle in Crimea. The absurdity of going to city council where they give you papers for permits and stuff in the beginning and nobody knows whats written on them because one or two words were borrowed from whom knows where and the actual definition is arbitrary.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    For Wabbits who are not familiar with the language issue. Oblasts in Ukraine and a rudimentary estimate of Russian speakers. My oblast - Zaporozhye - is probably around +90% Russian.


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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    In essence they can be the deciding factor between two major factions which is a nice thing, ergo an arbiter which helps gets things done.
    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    Klitschko did the smart thing by going to elections alone. He will get more votes and can always pick a side later.
    So Klitschko gets to play king maker.

    Did it turn out that way ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    So Klitschko gets to play king maker.

    Did it turn out that way ?
    Partly. If they want to change the constitution ergo second official language yes.

    Otherwise no Regions and Communists have enough to dominate on regular lawmaking.

    I actually didn't think Communists would get this much. Them and Socialists have been falling in the polls in the past elections and it seemed sooner or later they would be out. I think everyone wrote them off.

    Svoboda/Udar/Batkyvchina
    will probably hold 30-40% of all Mps if they are lucky.
    Most of the directly elected people on their side goes to Batkyvchina and Svoboda.

    Regions will get the most directly elected delegates and probably 30-35% of the majority ones.

    Fyi, 225 is directly elected 225 is majority representation based on national party showings.

    Communists are Kingmakers, again... Opposition could bargain and give them more than Regions but the problem is they would never come up to give up enough from the four factions point of view. Also lots of things opposition would want the Communists would not, like language roll-back.

    Not sure yet though theoretically it is possible for Regions to rule alone, although unlikely.
    Last edited by cyppok; 29 Oct 12, at 13:00.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    ’ибо€и-2012 на ок€ƒга… п€иведƒ‚Œ ƒ *адƒ †–лƒ а€м–Ž €оди‡–в в–доми… пол–‚ик–в - ’ибо€и-вибо€и - ТСН.ua
    За попередніми даними ЦВК, 117 депутатських крісел дістається регіоналам, 45 – самовисуванцям, 40 – ВО "Батьківщині", 11 – свободівцям та 5 – ударівцям.
    These are the directly elected not the national party list.

    Regions got 117
    Self-Promoted(Independents) 45
    Batkyvchina 40
    Svoboda got 11
    Udar 5
    and 7 were taken by various small parties Litvin, Baloga, Lyshko etc...

    225 directly elected ones

    the other 225 are national party lists.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    2012. -

    Very easy map to navigate with directly elected on bottom and nationally elected and regional winners on national map by party.

    Данные по всей Украине
    Место Кандидат Голосов
    1 Партия регионов 30.14% 6054546
    2 Всеукраинское объединение Батьківщина 25.42% 5108347
    3 Политическая партия УДАР 13.9% 2792799
    4 Коммунистическая партия Украины 13.22% 2656742
    5 Всеукраинское объединение Свобода 10.4% 2090516

    6 Партия Наталии Королевской Украина - Вперед! 1.58% 223713
    7 Политическая партия Наша Украина 1.11% 223713
    8 Радикальная Партия Олега Ляшко (this guy actually got into parliament via direct election) 1.08% 217888


    They still have about 2-3% left to count but very close nationally. Directly elected a independents got 2nd most which is very interesting.

    (directly elected)
    Самовыдвиженцы (indpendents) - 43
    Партия регионов (regions)- 115
    УДАР (UDAR-Klitchko)- 6
    Батьківщина (Batkyvshina) - 42
    Свобода (Freedom-Ultra-Nationalists) - 12
    Другие партии - 7

    regions need about 7 independents for majority.
    totals
    Regions 187
    communists 32
    Batkyvchina 103
    Udar 40
    Svoboda 37
    Others 7
    Independents 43


    p.s. one directly elected is very close between indy and svoboda.
    Last edited by cyppok; 31 Oct 12, at 17:08.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    Wealthy oligarchs, who can afford and benefit from corruption, strongly support the PoR. Then again, I suppose it's not too difficult to secure victory when the main opposition threat is incarcerated in Kharkiv.
    Can we take it that a PoR win is good for the future of the Ukranian economy ?

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