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Ukraine Elections 2012 Oct 28th

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  • #31
    Cyppok,

    the chart is GDP, not adjusted for inflation.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Doktor View Post
      Cyppok,

      the chart is GDP, not adjusted for inflation.
      I am going to reiterate my point so you understand it a bit better.

      in 1991 after USSR collapsed there was a tremendous deflationary effect for quiet a lot of reasons. People had no money more or less and every state that left the Union (except Russia) had no debt...
      Ukraine switched currencies twice first there were the karbovantzi then hryvnas.

      First devaluation was from 3.5 to 5 or so and second from 5 to 8.3.
      ergo a -33% and a -40% hit to most people whom held local currency. The first devaluation was far more painful because people held less dollars, second also painful but more people held forex.

      The GDP after 91 and 98-2000 era collapsed by 80% ergo if you produced $5 dollars you produced $1 after, the growth you see in your chart is ephemeral, it was simply re-capitalization and recovery to prior levels. Yes there was some actual real growth there most of it was simply recovery. Same thing applies to Russia. If you adjust for these things growth is still good but not as great as you think it was.

      I know you are going to ignore what I say but bear in mind the following. A house in crimea was worth $10,000 in 90s $15k in 2000, and $150k 2010, you could have bought an apartment for perhaps 4 grand and sold it for 40 today.
      Nominally there was growth, in real money it stayed the same.
      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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      • #33
        The Ukrainian economy contracted 1.3% in October alone and steel output is -15% from a year ago. There is a run on the soft Ukrainian ₴ for hard currency and the central bank dollar-reserve has plummeted to the lowest level since 2009. In violation of IMF loan terms, parliament has increased the budget deficit $1 billion dollars to pay for new fuel subsidies. By the end of the year I expect the hryvnia to be further devalued to 8.5 from the current 8.2 per dollar.
        sigpic

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        • #34
          Thought this would be a useful addition to this thread.

          The oligarchic democracy. The influence of business groups on Ukrainian politics | OSW | Oct 16 2012

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