Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Lebanon: Opening moves of a new power struggle?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Lebanon: Opening moves of a new power struggle?

    With Assad tottering sooner or later Hezbollah needs some way of securing its hold on Lebanon in case of further deterioration on the Syrian front. This seems like the opening move. What do you guys think?

    Beirut car bomb blast kills top intelligence official - World News

    Updated at 1:13 p.m. ET: BEIRUT, Lebanon -- A huge car bomb explosion in Beirut on Friday killed a top Lebanese security official whose investigations implicated Syria and Hezbollah in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik al-Hariri seven years ago.
    And is this merely coinciding with recent downings of regime aircraft in Syria, or are these signals that the situations has deteriorated further for the regime?

    Heat-Seeking Missiles in Syria: The SA-7 in Action with Rebels - NYTimes.com

    Syrian military helicopter shot down - The Long War Journal

  • #2
    Hezbollah get most of its logistics & Financial support from Iran. Fall of Assad regime will not have much impact other than building up new relationship with the replacement government. Even if Saudi Arabia tries to influence this, there will be strategic need for Syria to continue with their relation with Hezbollah.

    Comment


    • #3
      alfa2bravo Reply

      "...Fall of Assad regime will not have much impact other than building up new relationship with the replacement government. Even if Saudi Arabia tries to influence this, there will be strategic need for Syria to continue with their relation with Hezbollah."

      Your contention cannot be assured. POG (Party of God) and the IRGC have troops supporting the Assad regime. That won't be dismissed easily by the rebels.

      Hezbollah Naked Aggression Strips Away "Resistance" Facade-The National Oct. 22, 2012
      Last edited by S2; 22 Oct 12,, 15:21.
      "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
      "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by S2 View Post
        "...Fall of Assad regime will not have much impact other than building up new relationship with the replacement government. Even if Saudi Arabia tries to influence this, there will be strategic need for Syria to continue with their relation with Hezbollah."

        Your contention cannot be assured. POG (Party of God) and the IRGC have troops supporting the Assad regime. That won't be dismissed easily by the rebels.

        Hezbollah Naked Aggression Strips Away "Resistance" Facade-The National Oct. 22, 2012
        Also, I thought most of the material support, even from Iran, actually flowed through Syria. With Syria in rebel hands, that would presumably stop.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by citanon View Post
          With Assad tottering sooner or later Hezbollah needs some way of securing its hold on Lebanon in case of further deterioration on the Syrian front. This seems like the opening move. What do you guys think?
          I think it has to do with Hezbollah maintaining their home support. The late intel chief was about to spill the beans about a Hezb-Syria connection on the Hariri murder which happened back in 2005. From that pov i don't think its directly linked with Syria's present situation. Syria has its plate full and could care less, Hezb otoh....

          Not like its a mystery, i bet the lebanese public already strongly suspect it they just don't have anything official with which to do anything about it.

          Originally posted by citanon View Post
          And is this merely coinciding with recent downings of regime aircraft in Syria, or are these signals that the situations has deteriorated further for the regime?
          I think the situation in Syria is holding for now.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 22 Oct 12,, 19:37.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by S2 View Post
            "...Fall of Assad regime will not have much impact other than building up new relationship with the replacement government. Even if Saudi Arabia tries to influence this, there will be strategic need for Syria to continue with their relation with Hezbollah."

            Your contention cannot be assured. POG (Party of God) and the IRGC have troops supporting the Assad regime. That won't be dismissed easily by the rebels.

            Hezbollah Naked Aggression Strips Away "Resistance" Facade-The National Oct. 22, 2012
            Even if Hezbollah fighting in fever of Assad. Future Syria would need them to influence Lebanon. The fall of Assad regime does not confirm that there will be change in Syria's strategic point of view.

            Instead I would say Syria in future would like to play balanced role between SA & Iran.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by citanon View Post
              Also, I thought most of the material support, even from Iran, actually flowed through Syria. With Syria in rebel hands, that would presumably stop.
              For material support they Iran does not need Syria. They can simply do technology transfer. Hezbollah has the brain & infrastructure to do so.

              Comment

              Working...
              X