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If the Japanese had won Midway?

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  • If the Japanese had won Midway?

    Could the Japanese have won the battle. More importantly how would such a result have effected the outcome of the war, especially if the USS Enterprise, and USS Hornet had been lost in addition to the USS Yorktown?
    "Any relations in a social order will endure if there is infused into them some of that spirit of human sympathy, which qualifies life for immortality." ~ George William Russell

  • #2
    The japanese could've definitely won midway had things gone differently. Luck abandoned them in that fight, and the USN took full advantadge of that.

    If the US loses midway a fullscale invasion of the Aleutians or perhaps even Hawaii would've been in the cards, but the eventual outcome of the war is extremely unlikely to change.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by M21Sniper
      If the US loses midway a fullscale invasion of the Aleutians or perhaps even Hawaii would've been in the cards, but the eventual outcome of the war is extremely unlikely to change.
      Agreed, although I doubt the Japanese could have put together an invasion of Hawaii before the new Essex class carriers came into play. Even had we lost every carrier in our fleet at Midway (including ones that were not historically deployed) we would have replaced them by the end of 1942.

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      • #4
        Yamamoto's plan was to sit back on the defensive after Midway.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers
          Yamamoto's plan was to sit back on the defensive after Midway.
          He was a smart man. He realized the gravity of losing all the aircraft carriers in Midway.
          Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie!'...till you can find a rock. ;)

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          • #6
            The initial Essex carriers did not reach the Fleet until mid-1943:
            http://www.channel4.com/history/micr...ttletwo05.html
            They required time to train their crews and air wings. If Japan had won the Battle of Midway and destroyed all 3 carriers, they would have been able to isolate Hawaii (if they did not have the resources to invade), disable the local air bases, and destroy the naval facilities at Pearl Harbor. With the fuel storage farms at PH destroyed, the USN would have a tougher time fighting the IJN. The supply/fuel fleets had not been built to their 1944 efficiency at that point in time.

            Japan would probably still have lost, but the entire timeline of the Pacific war would have shifted to the right considerably.

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            • #7
              If they had taken Hawaii after Midway, than the next logical option would have been to destroy the Panama Canal and hence sever the direct lnks between the Pacific Fleet and the great ship-building centers of the East. The Essexs and Independnece Class Carriers would have to have gone via Cape Horn a risky proposition with IJN carriers and Subs at Hawaii.

              More importantly in light of another defeat, would a small little scientific project called the "Manhattan Project", have gotten the attention it did? Then in 1942 it was just an un proven scientific theory. A chain reaction was only achieved in December 1942 by Ferimi. WOuld he have recieved the funding he did in light of a Midway defeat?
              "Any relations in a social order will endure if there is infused into them some of that spirit of human sympathy, which qualifies life for immortality." ~ George William Russell

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              • #8
                The logisitics would have prevented any further adventures. The IJN began the war with a 6 month reserve stockpile of oil. The Imperial War Cabinet thought it meant for the whole of Japan when it actually was just the IJN stockpile. Instead of a 6 month reserve, they had a 3 month deficit.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by hammer
                  He was a smart man. He realized the gravity of losing all the aircraft carriers in Midway.
                  Actually, that was his original plan regardless if he won Midway or not. Midway would just be the furthest point of his defensive perimeter.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers
                    The logisitics would have prevented any further adventures. The IJN began the war with a 6 month reserve stockpile of oil. The Imperial War Cabinet thought it meant for the whole of Japan when it actually was just the IJN stockpile. Instead of a 6 month reserve, they had a 3 month deficit.
                    Agreed, but with Hawaii in their hands (remember they had detailed war-plans for such an operation) and the US Navy reduced to an unreliable Sarataoga and an out of date Ranger as the only carriers in the fleet,the Japanese would have had been in a commanding position strategically. Even if the oil reserves may not have lasted, they did have modern day Brunei in their hands and the oil they needed.

                    If you remember about Yamamoto and the "year to run wild", he ment that Japan had only so long to win the war. No one doubts the US's overwhelming material superiority, but would it have made a difference with say, Hawaii gone, the Panama Canal busted and oh yeah happy time in the Atlantic. The US Navy would have been streched to the breaking point.
                    "Any relations in a social order will endure if there is infused into them some of that spirit of human sympathy, which qualifies life for immortality." ~ George William Russell

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                    • #11
                      No, not even close. The Americans were fighting with one hand tied behind their backs and that rope was the ETO. It doesn't take a genius to figure out how much resources to shift from the Atlantic over to the Pacific.

                      And you misunderstood the Happy Times. It wasn't that the US was lacking in force protection. Hell, the Canadians won the Battle of the Atlantic. It was that the US had too much going on. Protect the troop transports or protect the ports. The USN decided to protect the transports.

                      In any case, as already stated, Yamamoto had no plans to invade Hawaii or anywhere else after Midway regardless if he won or not. So, your point is moot.
                      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 15 Jun 05,, 12:24.

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                      • #12
                        I (nor anybody else) have never argued the American advantage in men and materials (it was no comparison). However,

                        1) Yes the Japanese did have a plan to attack and take Hawaii. Read John Stephans "Under the Rising sun: Japan's plan for conquest after Pearl Habor".

                        Rear Admiral Ugaki Matome (Yamamoto's aide) noted in his diary that "what would hurt the Americans most is the loss of their fleet and Hawaii." A battle that left the Americans with just an unreliable Saratoga in the Pacific would qualify as a loss of a fleet. The Japanese believed more than anything that to win the war

                        i) it had to be short
                        ii) they had to knock out the Pacific Fleet.
                        iii)destroy the Panama Canal.

                        2) Transfering materials to the Pacific is a lot easier said than done. American Fleet carriers won the war in the Pacific. They were all built in the east. With Panama Canal gone, they would have had to come around cape horn and run the guantlet of the Japanese Fleet at Hawaii, to get to San Diego.
                        "Any relations in a social order will endure if there is infused into them some of that spirit of human sympathy, which qualifies life for immortality." ~ George William Russell

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                        • #13
                          John Stephans took a contigency plan that never left the books and ran to Mars with it. Both the US and Canada have contigency plans to invade each other. Do we take that seriously?

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                          • #14
                            "Yamamoto's plan was to sit back on the defensive after Midway."

                            At the very least they'd have reinforced their Garrison in the Aluetians chain, and would've been in MUCH better position to defend said garrison against the eventual invasion by the US 7th Infantry division.

                            Very few people realize it, but the Aluetian Invasion was the second bloodiest amphibious operation the US undertook in WWII, behind only Iwo Jima.

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                            • #15
                              "More importantly in light of another defeat, would a small little scientific project called the "Manhattan Project", have gotten the attention it did? Then in 1942 it was just an un proven scientific theory. A chain reaction was only achieved in December 1942 by Ferimi. WOuld he have recieved the funding he did in light of a Midway defeat?"

                              If anything, Manhattan would've gotten even higher priority in the event of a Japanese Victory at Midway. Remember, after Pearl the US west coast was completely vulnerable to invasion. Had we lost pearl after that, and saw a larger force of Japanese in the Aluetians, it would've compelled the US gov't to accelerate the Manhattan project as much as could possibly be achieved.

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