Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 39

Thread: Civil War in South Africa?

  1. #16
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    19 Feb 06
    Location
    Brooklyn, New York
    Posts
    1,527
    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    This is a new record, even for you. Private security companies don't fight military and paramilitary police forces!

    And what would the provincial leaders get by declaring secession or whatever garbage. The current system works very well for them, if you actually bothered to read up on South African economics instead of regurgitating nonsense about agricultural demand and supply, along with the garbage in the China economics thread.
    Private security can morph into mercenaries. Notice I said businesses in it. If some mining company with a few hundred million dollars decides to spin things around and start a covert war it will happen. If cash flowing businesses get to the brink of being wiped out they can fund themselves a private army. This happened in Columbia where there was a right group that established control over the area which eventually melted away when their people got control of the region. The cartels, FARC(far left), and AUC(far right) were all cash flow holders of their respective regions.

    The mandated wage hikes on farm workers is going to decimate already declining production. Go look at white maize the staple food crop of SA its been in decline for decades. When they have to import it prices will skyrocket far more than they have already. Think what this means for crime and general discontent as less people are able to feed themselves. You think they gonna sit quietly and starve waiting for the gov't to solve things?

    Mercenaries used by both government and anti-government forces in Africa is a very real phenomenon. My expectations are not ludicrous. The Rand lost about 8-10% in the last 3-6 months (and if you take 2 years it went from 7 to roughly 9, ergo roughly 22% lower), the budget deficit, exports, energy concerns, and government intervention in prices and wages in the market have all been growing worse.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  2. #17
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    05 Sep 06
    Posts
    3,896
    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    more than double the rate in India.
    India has a very low reported rape rate. Most European countries rank higher in that regard.

  3. #18
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    14 Mar 08
    Posts
    1,900
    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    Private security can morph into mercenaries. Notice I said businesses in it. If some mining company with a few hundred million dollars decides to spin things around and start a covert war it will happen. If cash flowing businesses get to the brink of being wiped out they can fund themselves a private army. This happened in Columbia where there was a right group that established control over the area which eventually melted away when their people got control of the region. The cartels, FARC(far left), and AUC(far right) were all cash flow holders of their respective regions.

    The mandated wage hikes on farm workers is going to decimate already declining production. Go look at white maize the staple food crop of SA its been in decline for decades. When they have to import it prices will skyrocket far more than they have already. Think what this means for crime and general discontent as less people are able to feed themselves. You think they gonna sit quietly and starve waiting for the gov't to solve things?

    Mercenaries used by both government and anti-government forces in Africa is a very real phenomenon. My expectations are not ludicrous. The Rand lost about 8-10% in the last 3-6 months (and if you take 2 years it went from 7 to roughly 9, ergo roughly 22% lower), the budget deficit, exports, energy concerns, and government intervention in prices and wages in the market have all been growing worse.
    Do you seriously think that mercenaries armed with assault rifles and shotguns can take on a mechanized army?

    The magnates who pay those PMCs and own the mines have no reason to want to split from South Africa, because they practically own the government. Since everything is already set up for their benefit, there is no reasonable economical rationale for them to secede. Ignorant, crackpot Internet conspiracy fantasies do not count as sound rationales.

    Prove your points about South African maize, provide the data points for food inflation versus wage earning increase, list the experts who predict that South African maize will production will fall because of wage hikes (that's like arguing Foxconn is churning out less iPhones because they pay their workers more now than in 2011).

  4. #19
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
    Join Date
    25 Aug 08
    Location
    Skopje, Macedonia
    Posts
    13,668
    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    India has a very low reported rape rate. Most European countries rank higher in that regard.
    But is sounds more Dramatic, then to say 3x more then Denmark.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  5. #20
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
    Join Date
    16 Aug 12
    Location
    Belarus•Ukraine•Israel
    Posts
    3,608
    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    India has a very low reported rape rate. Most European countries rank higher in that regard.
    Then your issue is with the Guardian...

    In 2010-11, 56,272 rapes were recorded in South Africa, an average of 154 a day and more than double the rate in India.

  6. #21
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
    Join Date
    25 Aug 08
    Location
    Skopje, Macedonia
    Posts
    13,668
    Another of Guardian's weird figures. As an Israeli citizen you should take their reporting with a grain of salt.

    According to wiki quoting UN numbers, South Africa ин 2010 fared 'better' then 25 countries (Including, USA, UK, Scandinavians, Australia, Belgium...) and had 5 times more rapes then India, not 2.

    I can realize that these findings are far from realistic, being gathered by so many different sources, but are far better then thos of Guardian - none. All I could find in their post is links to their own articles and 2 links to SA media. Not one source for their sensationalist title.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  7. #22
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    05 Sep 06
    Posts
    3,896
    The number isn't weird - it just isn't adjusted for India's 25 times larger population...

    Well, actually when it's adjusted it's weird. Because then it'd be 5 times higher than usually published.

  8. #23
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
    Join Date
    16 Aug 12
    Location
    Belarus•Ukraine•Israel
    Posts
    3,608
    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Another of Guardian's weird figures. As an Israeli citizen you should take their reporting with a grain of salt.
    Very well...

    Will South Africans ever be shocked by rape?
    Andrew Harding - BBC Africa Correspondent
    10 January 2013

    <snip>
    At a time when Indians are re-examining their society in the light of a single, horrific incident of gang rape, South Africa seems numb - unable to muster much more than a collective shrug in the face of almost unbelievably grim statistics - seemingly far worse than India's. Here almost 60,000 rapes are reported to the police each year - more than double the number in India, in a far smaller country. Experts believe the true figure is at least 10 times that - 600,000 attacks.
    </snip>
    Source: BBC

  9. #24
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
    Join Date
    25 Aug 08
    Location
    Skopje, Macedonia
    Posts
    13,668
    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    Very well...


    Source: BBC
    Again no sources for the claims. At least BBC was explicit to say they talk absolute numbers, not per capita.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  10. #25
    Liberté, Unité, Egalité Senior Contributor Tronic's Avatar
    Join Date
    27 Dec 04
    Location
    Toronto
    Posts
    3,960
    Ok, so I had been reading up on the Western media's coverage of the Indian protests over rape laws. After the initial pounding of Indian society ended and once the articles started to introspect, I was surprised at some of the rape statistics in the West which largely go unnoticed.

    The Federal Bureau of Investigation crime data reveals only 24 percent of reported rapes result in an arrest in the United States, a rate far below that of other violent crimes such as murder (79 percent) and aggravated assault (51 percent).
    Focus on Rape in India Ignores Gender Violence as a Global Tragedy
    An interesting article worth a read. I think the issue of rape differs in each country and is grossly misunderstood and widely generalized.

    From the same article:

    According to India's National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), Indian cities are far more dangerous places for women than Indian villages. Delhi, the city where Damini once lived and studied, is no longer simply India's political capital, but has also achieved the dubious distinction of becoming its "crime capital" in rates of violence against women.

    Reports from the National Family Household Survey, which arguably provides a more accurate picture of actual rates of violence than the reported numbers available through NCRB, also confirms that city-dwelling women are more likely to face intimate forms of abuse than women living in villages. India, after all, is the country where sex ratios are most skewed toward males among the wealthy and educated in urban areas that boast India's greatest "modern" accouterments.

    This uneven landscape, where violence against women is simultaneously prevalent throughout the world and notably higher in the industrialized, urban centers of developing countries than their ostensibly "backwards" hinterlands, should make us all pause. Gender-based violence is a complex phenomenon, with multiple causes and social manifestations, and does not lend itself to facile theorizations about "patriarchal culture" and "village mentalities." This reduction not only ignores the facts, but also is dangerously misleading.
    In all, I believe this issue is one which needs introspection by everyone in their own societies. I would not say that South Africa is 'worse' or 'better' than India. The root of these issues differs from society to society. The main issue is of a certain attitude towards women which can only be changed through introspection by a society as a whole. India has major issues with it's law and justice system but that is neither the cause of India's issue with sex crimes, nor does this judicial inefficiency only end at sex crimes.

    The Indian protests were also painted by some in the international media as "India's shame", but I think that is a ridiculous assertion as those protests were very disconnected with the rest of the world. It were Indian youth, part of a newly created middle class, inter-connected through social media, seeing an Indian issue and deciding to stand up against it. By no means were those protests a manifestation of Indian youth looking outward for inspiration for their society. Those protests do not necessarily mean that India is automatically 'worse' than other societies on this issue, but maybe, that it's an issue where only the Indian youth decided to mobilize for. Though we now know that is not the case anymore, and those protests quickly spread to neighbouring countries as well:

    Rape protests spread beyond India

    Demonstrators in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh join protest movement against sexual violence
    Rape protests spread beyond India | World news | guardian.co.uk

    And ofcourse, the outburst in India has also brought another movement into focus worldwide: One Billion Rising - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new lands but seeing with new eyes.

  11. #26
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
    Join Date
    16 Aug 12
    Location
    Belarus•Ukraine•Israel
    Posts
    3,608
    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Again no sources for the claims. At least BBC was explicit to say they talk absolute numbers, not per capita.
    The numbers generally quoted in the media originate from the South African Police Service database of reported crimes

    http://www.saps.gov.za/statistics/re...012/totals.pdf

    A much easier to understand database is available at CrimeStatsSA

    Crime Stats SA - Crime Stats Simplified

    Rape in South Africa is defined as "non-consensual penetration". It includes female rape, male rape, baby rape, and "corrective rape" (lesbians). In a 2009 survey by the South Africa Medical Research Council, 25% of men surveyed said they had raped a at least one woman. The Council estimates that 3,600 rapes occur daily and posited that a South African woman is more likely to be raped than learn how to read. Baby rape occurs with great frequency. Widespread wisdom in SA includes the notions that raping a virgin is a cure for HIV/AIDS and that repeatedly raping a lesbian will return them to the heterosexual fold. In light of increasingly bad publicity since 2010, the SA government admits that rape has become an extremely serious problem. The US State Department cautions US tourists to be very aware of the frequency of sexual crimes in South Africa.

  12. #27
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
    Join Date
    15 Apr 08
    Location
    Transylvania
    Posts
    5,074
    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    Do you seriously think that mercenaries armed with assault rifles and shotguns can take on a mechanized army?
    The old SADF is no more.However,in 3 months new battalions can be created,led by the veterans of Angola,Sierra Leone,Iraq etc... The ANC has everything but MEN.Real ones.
    The civil war won't be about resources,or solely so.It will be nothing more and less than over the extermination of whites by an increasingly poor and ignorant horde of blacks led by an increasingly desperate and greedy ANC.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  13. #28
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    19 Feb 06
    Location
    Brooklyn, New York
    Posts
    1,527
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    The old SADF is no more.However,in 3 months new battalions can be created,led by the veterans of Angola,Sierra Leone,Iraq etc... The ANC has everything but MEN.Real ones.
    The civil war won't be about resources,or solely so.It will be nothing more and less than over the extermination of whites by an increasingly poor and ignorant horde of blacks led by an increasingly desperate and greedy ANC.
    I don't even think it will get racial it will be more about resource division and distribution. Think about a region where blacks and whites work on farms and produce food and then imagine 'redistribution' that makes them all destitute due to either taxation or fee/license barriers. Now imagine the incentive for this region to create a black market smuggle and sell food products inside and outside the country and simply give gov't the finger and then try to defend its autonomy.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  14. #29
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
    Join Date
    15 Apr 08
    Location
    Transylvania
    Posts
    5,074
    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    I don't even think it will get racial it will be more about resource division and distribution. Think about a region where blacks and whites work on farms and produce food and then imagine 'redistribution' that makes them all destitute due to either taxation or fee/license barriers. Now imagine the incentive for this region to create a black market smuggle and sell food products inside and outside the country and simply give gov't the finger and then try to defend its autonomy.
    I don't have to think of any thing.I simply happen to know one or two things about SA.More than some,less than others.And if it's anything right now is about class warfare.Which is also race warfare(or tribal,if the term race sounds too demonetized).Forget about the black middle class or their nouveau riche.Most got there thanks to favoritism by the state(read ANC) and they'll need to appease the masses.So,kill the farmer,kill the Boer.UHURU all the way.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  15. #30
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    14 Mar 08
    Posts
    1,900
    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    I don't even think it will get racial it will be more about resource division and distribution. Think about a region where blacks and whites work on farms and produce food and then imagine 'redistribution' that makes them all destitute due to either taxation or fee/license barriers. Now imagine the incentive for this region to create a black market smuggle and sell food products inside and outside the country and simply give gov't the finger and then try to defend its autonomy.
    *sigh*

    Farmers don't have the money to hire PMCs, and it would be cheaper for South Africa just to buy (loan for minerals, anyone?) food than spend money dealing with unrest.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. South Africa Election
    By Merlin in forum International Politics
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 03 May 09,, 10:38
  2. Congratulations South Africa
    By Bigfella in forum Sports Bar
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 02 Jan 09,, 16:23
  3. South Africa: is it starting?
    By lwarmonger in forum International Economy
    Replies: 72
    Last Post: 08 Feb 06,, 10:43
  4. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 28 May 04,, 04:39

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •