I decided to post it in Europe cause its sort of in between.
My thoughts are after the excerpts and map.
Azeri President Says Armenia Will Lose If Karabakh War Resumes - Businessweek
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65525
Armenia Confirms Shoot-Out With Azerbaijani Forces
APA - Turkey-Azerbaijan military cooperation discussed in Baku
Russia to Double Troops in Armenia | EurasiaNet.org
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikiped...gions_2008.svg
Map from there I just wanted a topographic / political / control map that is integrated granted this one is a bit hard to see where the mountain ridges are.
I looked through the battles/timeline of the last war and kinda makes sense for Kelbajar to be taken to extend the physical ridge border in then end from a military perspective...
Anyways. My thoughts are as follows.
Azerbaidjan is posturing because it is under pressure. Politicians within it are basically somewhat corrupt and the oil revenues brought riches to the beuracracy. Ergo the class divide within society is pushing it fairly heavily somewhere, thus posturing and populism is practiced often with actions here and there and no concrete inclination to do much. The problem is that those IDP internally displaced people that gout of the region and were displaced are a decent minority of the population. Furthermore many of them whom grew up would likely be disadvantaged economically due to being displaced and the mobility is abridged due to usual nepotism and corruption. So society is somewhat simmering in a pressure cooker of forcing the issue of normalizing economic benefit through retaking of areas to at least symbolically regain economic rung for the bottom tier. Theoretically this is flawed sociologically it really isn't. Most people look at land as probably small business fruit farming as a reality that could sustain them and provide better way of life than being on the bottom tier the economy in the country.
I think someone makes a move. Sooner rather than later. What I am trying to figure out is what the ramifications will be. If Turkey gets involved and we have a major theater event there could be some serious destabilization issues that could have very big ripples. For example if Turkey goes into Armenia theoretically NATO does not apply since it is a defensive alliance... And this is only one of a myriad of possibilities.
Thoughts comments discussion and other opinions are welcome.
My thoughts are after the excerpts and map.
Azeri President Says Armenia Will Lose If Karabakh War Resumes - Businessweek
“I have no doubt that Armenia will flee the battlefield if the active phase of the war starts,” Aliyev said in remarks broadcast on the state television channel AzTV today. “We have every opportunity to regain control of our territory.”
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65525
Russia Hints at Intervention in Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict
June 11, 2012 - 11:31am, by Joshua Kucera
Several days after apparent widespread skirmishes all along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and the Nagorno-Karabakh "line of contact," there is still very little information about what actually happened. For a while, though, at least on the internet, it seemed that a serious escalation of violence was imminent.
It's a bit odd that, amid all the rumors of massive fighting, there doesn't seem to have been any casualties on either side, suggesting that the reports may have been some sort of deliberate disinformation campaign. And that's what the Armenian Defense Ministry has suggested:
June 11, 2012 - 11:31am, by Joshua Kucera
Several days after apparent widespread skirmishes all along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and the Nagorno-Karabakh "line of contact," there is still very little information about what actually happened. For a while, though, at least on the internet, it seemed that a serious escalation of violence was imminent.
It's a bit odd that, amid all the rumors of massive fighting, there doesn't seem to have been any casualties on either side, suggesting that the reports may have been some sort of deliberate disinformation campaign. And that's what the Armenian Defense Ministry has suggested:
Russian fighter jets stationed at a base in Armenia have conducted about 300 training flights since the beginning of 2012, and have increased the number of flying hours by more than 20 percent from last year...
Colonel Gorbul said Russian fighter pilots were preparing for combat. “The main emphasis in performing aerobatic elements is made on the ability to apply them in real-life air combat conditions,” he said.
Colonel Gorbul said Russian fighter pilots were preparing for combat. “The main emphasis in performing aerobatic elements is made on the ability to apply them in real-life air combat conditions,” he said.
Clinton, who is currently on her tour in the Caucasus, warned in Yerevan on June 4 that tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, the separatist Armenian-populated territory inside Azerbaijan, could escalate into a "much broader conflict."
Turkey-Azerbaijan military cooperation discussed in Baku
[ 07 Feb 2012 17:44 ]
Safar Abiyev gave information about the military-political situation in the region and the problems caused by Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno Karabakh. Minister said as the efforts made by the Minsk Group towards the resolution of the conflict have not produced concrete results, Azerbaijan is obliged to take back the occupied Azerbaijani territories through other means, therefore it is strengthening the Armed Forces.
Military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan was discussed at the meeting, the sides underlined the importance of enhancing the relations.
[ 07 Feb 2012 17:44 ]
Safar Abiyev gave information about the military-political situation in the region and the problems caused by Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno Karabakh. Minister said as the efforts made by the Minsk Group towards the resolution of the conflict have not produced concrete results, Azerbaijan is obliged to take back the occupied Azerbaijani territories through other means, therefore it is strengthening the Armed Forces.
Military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan was discussed at the meeting, the sides underlined the importance of enhancing the relations.
Russia to Double Troops in Armenia
June 20, 2012 - 10:41pm, by Giorgi Lomsadze
Following a pick-up in fatal gunfire exchanges along the Nagorno-Karabakh frontline, Moscow has announced plans to double its troop strength in ally Armenia by the end of the year. The upshot of the message was clear: Azerbaijan could face Russian guns if it attempts to push Armenian forces out of long-occupied Azerbaijani lands.
The new arrivals will be temporary -- the "permanent" troop presence at Gyumri, the northern Armenian site of Russia's 102nd Military Base, will stay at 5,000, according to Colonel Igor Gorbul, a spokesperson for Russia's Southern Military District, RIA Novosti reported -- and will receive a higher salary and undefined benefits to whet their interest in sticking around.
June 20, 2012 - 10:41pm, by Giorgi Lomsadze
Following a pick-up in fatal gunfire exchanges along the Nagorno-Karabakh frontline, Moscow has announced plans to double its troop strength in ally Armenia by the end of the year. The upshot of the message was clear: Azerbaijan could face Russian guns if it attempts to push Armenian forces out of long-occupied Azerbaijani lands.
The new arrivals will be temporary -- the "permanent" troop presence at Gyumri, the northern Armenian site of Russia's 102nd Military Base, will stay at 5,000, according to Colonel Igor Gorbul, a spokesperson for Russia's Southern Military District, RIA Novosti reported -- and will receive a higher salary and undefined benefits to whet their interest in sticking around.
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikiped...gions_2008.svg
Map from there I just wanted a topographic / political / control map that is integrated granted this one is a bit hard to see where the mountain ridges are.
I looked through the battles/timeline of the last war and kinda makes sense for Kelbajar to be taken to extend the physical ridge border in then end from a military perspective...
Anyways. My thoughts are as follows.
Azerbaidjan is posturing because it is under pressure. Politicians within it are basically somewhat corrupt and the oil revenues brought riches to the beuracracy. Ergo the class divide within society is pushing it fairly heavily somewhere, thus posturing and populism is practiced often with actions here and there and no concrete inclination to do much. The problem is that those IDP internally displaced people that gout of the region and were displaced are a decent minority of the population. Furthermore many of them whom grew up would likely be disadvantaged economically due to being displaced and the mobility is abridged due to usual nepotism and corruption. So society is somewhat simmering in a pressure cooker of forcing the issue of normalizing economic benefit through retaking of areas to at least symbolically regain economic rung for the bottom tier. Theoretically this is flawed sociologically it really isn't. Most people look at land as probably small business fruit farming as a reality that could sustain them and provide better way of life than being on the bottom tier the economy in the country.
I think someone makes a move. Sooner rather than later. What I am trying to figure out is what the ramifications will be. If Turkey gets involved and we have a major theater event there could be some serious destabilization issues that could have very big ripples. For example if Turkey goes into Armenia theoretically NATO does not apply since it is a defensive alliance... And this is only one of a myriad of possibilities.
Thoughts comments discussion and other opinions are welcome.
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