Originally posted by 1980s
View Post
The Russians did not fail they took it 300 years ago just gave it back for join Turkey war. Russians also didn't really try all that hard to be quiet honest. Everything is separable, everything changes and evolves. I am glad you like the names i made up.
Bear in mind I am think of complete revamping of borders among ethnic lines from Pakistan through Syria for peaceful evolution something close to what happened in Europe after WW2... I am just saying its an interesting hypothetical on my end.
Azerbaidjan is in existance right now... granted only the Northern part but still it sort of gives a gravity to an ethnic state possibility. Also mind you I think the Azeris in Iran won't go for it unless things got really bad (like food costs going through the roof) AND treatment worsened etc... Right now the Alievs seem to be more corrupt with less opportunities than Iran offers integration wise class structure wise BUT things change...
The problem with Iran is that it thinks that stall tactics and agreements with the west where they pretend to go along with something and the west goes along with pretending they believe it doesn't work. Both parties need to check on one another in a sense and realize where agreement actually exists. Right now it seems Iran is very isolated and the worse offers it gets ( and believe me they will get worse ) the more it will feel it can turn them down (only correct up to a certain point). What is happening is that they constantly have to up the ante for everyone whom backs them Russia, China, to buy support. Sooner or later it will become an nonviable bargaining position.
P.S. don't take it so seriously its a "what if" scenario.
But imagine if as the conflict erupted USA promised China to let it participate in the Iranian oil sector post reconstruction, same to Russia along with geopolitical guarantees not to meddle too much up north. Now think that this would be offered while the gulf conflict started like they were bombing Iran already.
Also mind you there were Russian break up scenarios up the wazoo with Siberia going independent and whatnot by Cia analysts all the way up to 2000s... In Irans case a lot of chunks are ethnic/religious possibilities if you look at it pragmatically. Yes the balance of power in the region changes so much that the risk would only be viable for someone like USA whom would want regional fracture for resolution of international meddling by regional states in that part of the world.
Additional thought:
I was wondering what would happen if Kurdistan existed and realized that it would effectively seperate Turkey from Azerbaidjan and Turkic populated people in a similar way as Armenia does now. So if it existed while Iran was smaller (not much smaller just a little bit with Baluchistan, Ahwaz, Kurdish areas, and Azerbaidjan areas seperate (closer to a ball like shape like Romania with perhaps 40 million people or so). From a Russian perspective this would be OK. The problem is if Azerbaidjan had 20-30 million and Armenia 3-4, it would be overrun unless it was bolstered or borders were manipulated further.
Comment