Page 193 of 193 FirstFirst ... 184185186187188189190191192193
Results 2,881 to 2,894 of 2894

Thread: Syrian Civil War Developments

  1. #2881
    FreeGeneral Senior Contributor Big K's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Dec 06
    Location
    Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey
    Posts
    2,511
    The Turkey mess is everybody's fault

    By Cenk Sidar -
    Friday, October 11, 2019
    ANALYSIS/OPINION:

    It’s easy, especially thousands of miles away, to jump onto the bandwagon of Turkey-blamers following its recent military incursion into Syria. However, Ankara has legitimate reasons for its actions. Its own national security as well as creating a sustainable solution for the Syrian refugee problem are at stake.

    Turkey is not the only actor to be blamed for the mess in Syria. Major mistakes by Washington and Brussels have significantly contributed to the problem. However, Turkey, having a long border with Syria, suffers more from the instability in Syria and must act in order to secure its territory.

    The United States made major mistakes in Syria. The Obama administration’s decision in 2016 to arm People’s Protection Unit (YPG) members and directly embed American special forces with them was the wrong decision. PKK, another Kurdish group, and YPG are identical organizations, and PKK is listed as a terrorist organization according to the United States, European Union and NATO. Witnessing its strategic partner arming its major terror threat was traumatizing for Turks and Turkey.

    Arming what Turkey views as a terrorist organization was not the only mistake the United States made. More important, the Obama administration failed to act to prevent bloodshed in Syria despite the crossing of redlines and multiple ultimatums. If President Obama had actually acted and intervened in the Syrian crisis, the situation could have been different.

    President Trump has not been helpful in avoiding the heightened tension.Impulsive decisions, erratic tweets, lack of coordination among the Pentagon, State Department, and the White House have been once more showing the global leadership vacuum in regional and global politics.

    Even though European countries suffer from the flux of refugees to the region, the EU did not keep its promise assisting Turkey in its challenge of accepting millions of Syrian refugees. Turkey and the Turkish economy have suffered badly from the refugee crisis and the country has been facing major social tension as the public becomes more and more hostile to refugees. Nearly 4 million Syrian refugees are living in Turkey, perhaps permanently.

    No matter the mistakes of Washington and Brussels, Turkey could do better and avoid such a military operation. Especially between 2012 and 2016, Turkish foreign policy, led by former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, was fully focused on the removal of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad rather than fighting ISIS and stabilizing Syria. Mr. Davutoglu and other Turkish leaders even publicly praised groups such as Al Nusra, which later merged with ISIS.

    The lack of action and intent to fight against ISIS allowed YPG to position itself as a reliable ally to the United States. Turkey suffered multiple ISIS terrorist attacks that killed hundreds of Turkish citizens in its major cities.

    One thing that the U.S. media and public opinion does not understand is that Turkey is not in Syria to kill Kurds. There are millions of Kurds in Turkey, living as citizens with equal rights. Ankara’s operation is against PKK and YPG.

    The projection of Turkey’s operation as a violent act by the mainstream U.S. media is not fair. Despite all the internal problems, Turkey is a strategic NATO ally and acts in accordance with the international law in preventing a safe zone in Syria for terrorist groups that attack Turkish soil regularly. It is clear that Turkey’s legitimately concerning democratic deficit and rule of law prevents the international community to acknowledge its concerns, even when they are legitimate and right.

    There is much to do to fix the problem. President Trump’s decision to pull out from Syria is immature and risky. Washington should cooperate with legitimate actors in the region led by Turkey and Syria and abandon the policy of arming terrorist groups against other terrorist groups. This is contradictory and against the principles of U.S. foreign policy.

    Turkey must limit the scope and length of the military incursion and launch dialogue with the Syrian regime. Having dialogue channels with Damascus would help Ankara to accomplish its tactical and strategic goals. Syria and Turkey have more in common today.

    European nations should re-admit their own citizens who fought for ISIS and plan a judiciary process for them. Those radicalized individuals are the byproduct of those societies and European nations must take responsibility. All actors should contribute to the mission of creating a safe zone for refugees in Northern Syria and ensure the safety of the area.

    Everyone has responsibility in the Syria mess. Isolating Turkey and punishing the country via sanctions will only harm the stability of the region and will enlarge the vacuum created by the absence of responsible U.S. leadership in the Middle East.

    • Cenk Sidar is co-founder and CEO of GlobalWonks. You can follow him at @cenksidar.


    Copyright © 2019 The Washington Times, LLC.
    Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

  2. #2882
    FreeGeneral Senior Contributor Big K's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Dec 06
    Location
    Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey
    Posts
    2,511
    ypg/pkk consist this kind of people... this is from 2018.

    https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-te...oups-brutality
    Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

  3. #2883
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    9,688
    Question is what happens to ISIS ? Do they now reconstitute themselves since their vanquishers are now the hunted

  4. #2884
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    9,688
    I don't get it. He allows Turkey to move on the PKK/YPG on the proviso there is some unknown red line. Now it appears Turkey already crossed that red line as Trump is sanctioning Turkey with an aim to degrade Turkey's economy. Which isn't in very good shape to begin with.

    These sanctions appear to be a slap on the wrist and nothing major. I suppose we take it as a warning shot across the bow to Turkey not to escalate too far whatever too far means for Trump.

    US hits Turkish officials with sanctions over Syria offensive | FT | Oct 15 2019

    Donald Trump moved on Monday to punish Turkey for its military advance into Syria, imposing sanctions on several Turkish ministers and departments and saying he would double tariffs on the country’s steel exports to 50 per cent.

    The US president has attracted sharp criticism from fellow Republicans, Democrats and US allies after making an abrupt shift in US foreign policy this month by consenting to a Turkish military incursion in north-east Syria against US-backed Kurdish militias who have been instrumental in defeating the jihadi group Isis.

    Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury secretary, said on Monday evening that Mr Trump had signed an executive order, effective immediately, imposing sanctions on Turkey’s defence, energy and interior ministers, as well as the Turkish government’s defence and energy departments.

    Speaking outside the White House, Mr Mnuchin said “secondary sanctions” would apply to financial institutions that carry out transactions for the sanctioned individuals and departments.

    The measures were less harsh than many investors in Turkish assets feared. The lira was up more than 1 per cent against the dollar at 9.50am local time on Tuesday.

    Piotr Matys, an emerging markets currency strategist at Rabobank, said there was “relief” in the markets that the US opted for “relatively mild sanctions”.


    Mr Mnuchin was joined outside the White House by Mike Pence, US vice-president, who said the sanctions were intended to bring about a ceasefire in the region, and that he and national security adviser Robert O’Brien would head to Turkey soon to begin talks with government officials.

    “The president’s objective here is very clear: that the sanctions that were announced today will continue and will worsen unless and until Turkey embraces an immediate ceasefire, stops the violence and agrees to negotiate a long-term settlement of the issues along the border between Turkey and Syria,” Mr Pence said.

    The vice-president said Mr Trump had spoken directly with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who he said had given the US a “firm commitment” not to attack the totemic Kurdish-majority town of Kobani, which in 2015 fended off an attack by Isis jihadis.

    Name:  turkey offensive map.png
Views: 187
Size:  103.5 KB

    Mr Trump signalled his intention to impose sanctions on Monday afternoon in a statement on Twitter in which he also said he would increase tariffs on steel imported from Turkey to the US to 50 per cent and halt negotiations over “a $100bn trade deal” between the two countries. The US had halved tariffs on Turkish steel in May to 25 per cent.

    “The United States will aggressively use economic sanctions to target those who enable, facilitate and finance these heinous acts in Syria,” said Mr Trump. “I am fully prepared to swiftly destroy Turkey’s economy if Turkish leaders continue down this dangerous and destructive path.”

    In announcing the sanctions, Mr Mnuchin said licences would remain in place to allow the UN and other non-governmental organisations, as well as the US government, to continue to operate in Turkey.

    He said the country would be able to continue to buy fuel under the sanctions regime, adding: “We are not looking to shut down the energy for the people of Turkey.”

    Democratic leaders in the Senate swiftly rejected Monday’s announcement by Mr Trump, saying: “Strong sanctions, while good and justified, will not be sufficient.” The senators called on Republicans to join them in “passing a resolution making clear that both parties are demanding the president’s decision be reversed”.

    Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, said: “President Trump has unleashed an escalation of chaos and insecurity in Syria. His announcement of a package of sanctions against Turkey falls very short of reversing that humanitarian disaster.”*

    The measures appeared to satisfy Senator Lindsey Graham, who had led Republican calls to punish Turkey for its military assault. He said he “strongly” supported the measures. “Until there is a ceasefire and an end to the bloodshed, sanctions must continue and increase over time,” he said.

    Before the announcement, Mr Erdogan had said sanctions would not make him change course in Syria, warning: “Those who think they can make Turkey turn back with these threats are gravely mistaken.”

    Mr Trump said on Monday that a “small footprint” of US forces would remain in At Tanf, a military base in southern Syria, to “continue to disrupt remnants of Isis”.

    Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate majority leader who has historically backed the president, said on Monday that he was “gravely concerned by recent events in Syria and by our nation’s apparent response thus far”.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 15 Oct 19, at 15:00.

  5. #2885
    FreeGeneral Senior Contributor Big K's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Dec 06
    Location
    Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey
    Posts
    2,511
    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    .... But would you rather a imperialistic absolutist Daesh/ISIS neo 'Califate' as a neighbour or a vaguely civilised new Kurdistan whom the West can reign in?
    no not at all. i very well remember how things turned out with Iraq's northern region... it is simply a base for terrorists... a free Kurdistan founded by the SAME terrorists with those in Iraq will be a way to unite Iran,Syria&Turkey... not to mention Russia...

    so this can be a real backfire to US interests in the region...

    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    I hear that some 700 Daesh/ISIS prisoners, some of them apparently Turkish have escaped this morning. As with anything in Syria I cannot say if these reports are true. Was this Erdogan's intent? Turnips? If not did the Orangutan in the White House endorse the Turkish foray against the only real allies the West has in the area? I am just bemused by this dishonourable betrayal.
    isis support can and will backfire Erdo hugely and that will weaken him further (he already lost too much support) so he can not free any isis members.

    actually Erdo's support for the groups against Esad commenced right after Panetta's visit in 2011 (he was head of CIA then)...

    suddenly Erdo turned his back to Esad whom he was calling "my brother".. if you believe in coincidences
    Last edited by Big K; 16 Oct 19, at 08:11.
    Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

  6. #2886
    FreeGeneral Senior Contributor Big K's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Dec 06
    Location
    Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey
    Posts
    2,511


    pay attention particularly after 1:25...
    Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

  7. #2887
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    9,688
    Quote Originally Posted by Big K View Post
    isis support can and will backfire Erdo hugely and that will weaken him further (he already lost too much support) so he can not free any isis members.
    Here's a counter point.

    What if Erdo fought Da'esh with the YPG support in Syria like Obama wanted.

    Now what happens to PKK ? they become weak in Turkey because now Kurds can see Erdo is helping them

    YPG are only interested in Syria.

    But Erdo was afraid that PKK + YPG together becomes more dangerous for Turkey.

    It was said inn 2014 when Obama wanted this that Erdo had to acquiesce to the Turkish Nationalists.

    So he refused to fight Da'esh because YPG is a bigger threat. In his mind.

    So Obama sent in SF operators to fight Da'esh.

    This armed american involvement plus lethal weapons to YPG only came to light on this board two years later
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Oct 19, at 12:29.

  8. #2888
    FreeGeneral Senior Contributor Big K's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Dec 06
    Location
    Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey
    Posts
    2,511
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Here's a counter point.

    What if Erdo fought Da'esh with the YPG support in Syria like Obama wanted.

    Now what happens to PKK ? they become weak in Turkey because now Kurds can see Erdo is helping them

    YPG are only interested in Syria.

    But Erdo was afraid that PKK + YPG together becomes more dangerous for Turkey.

    It was said inn 2014 when Obama wanted this that Erdo had to acquiesce to the Turkish Nationalists.

    So he refused to fight Da'esh because YPG is a bigger threat. In his mind.

    So Obama sent in SF operators to fight Da'esh.

    This armed american involvement plus lethal weapons to YPG only came to light on this board two years later
    no no no...

    what i can not express enough is that ypg=pkk=pjak... in every meaning of the word they are the same organisation...

    ypg is Syrian branch, pkk is Turkish branch, pjak is Iranian branch.

    and Erdo's turning his back to Syrian Esad is exactly after 2011's Panetta visit....(?!?) (isis was an artificial thing.. has no root within the society... they killed that same society infact...you would live here you could understand very clearly that)



    Dont you see? The only winner from Turkey vs West scenario is Russia... a powerful ypg would bring Syria,Turkey&Iran together...

    Like US support when Erdos rising to power back in 2002.

    US is again confused who to support ..

    just like in S-400 incident... the winner was only the Russia...
    Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

  9. #2889
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    9,688
    Quote Originally Posted by Big K View Post
    no no no...

    what i can not express enough is that ypg=pkk=pjak... in every meaning of the word they are the same organisation...

    ypg is Syrian branch, pkk is Turkish branch, pjak is Iranian branch.
    ypg & Pjak & Iraqi kurds do not engage in political violence in Turkey. Unlike PKK. Why make more enemies ?

    Turkey and the Kurds: What goes around comes around | TWMES | Oct 16 2019



    Quote Originally Posted by Big K View Post
    and Erdo's turning his back to Syrian Esad is exactly after 2011's Panetta visit....(?!?) (isis was an artificial thing.. has no root within the society... they killed that same society infact...you would live here you could understand very clearly that)
    what do you think of the below excerpt from above link

    The notion that there was no alternative to the Turkish intervention in Syria is further countered by the fact that Turkish PKK negotiations that started in 2012 led a year later to a ceasefire and a boosting of efforts to secure a peaceful resolution.

    The talks prompted imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to publish a letter endorsing the ceasefire, the disarmament and withdrawal from Turkey of PKK fighters, and a call for an end to the insurgency. Mr. Ocalan predicted that 2013 would be the year in which the Turkish Kurdish issues would be resolved peacefully.

    The PKK's military leader, Cemil Bayik, told the BBC three years later that "we don't want to separate from Turkey and set up a state. We want to live within the borders of Turkey on our own land freely.”

    The talks broke down in 2015 against the backdrop of the Syrian war and the rise as a US ally of the United States in the fight against the Islamic State of the PKK’s Syrian affiliate, the People's Protection Units (YPG).
    This is where Erdo loses it

    Bitterly opposed to the US-YPG alliance, Turkey demanded that the PKK halt its resumption of attacks on Turkish targets and disarm prior to further negotiations.

    Turkey responded to the breakdown and resumption of violence with a brutal crackdown in the southeast of the country and on the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).

    Nonetheless, in a statement issued from prison earlier this year that envisioned an understanding between Turkey and Syrian Kurdish forces believed to be aligned with the PKK, Mr. Ocalan declared that “we believe, with regard to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the problems in Syria should be resolved within the framework of the unity of Syria, based on constitutional guarantees and local democratic perspectives. In this regard, it should be sensitive to Turkey’s concerns.”

    a powerful ypg would bring Syria,Turkey&Iran together...
    How ?

    Turkey has already defused the iraqi kurds. Now there was a chance to defuse the syrian kurds but it was missed. If it was taken then all Turkey had to do was come up with some arrangement with PKK. Erdo seemed well placed to solve this problem but the solution slipped away. The Kurd problem in Turkey reminds me of LTTE problem in Sri Lanka. War of identity.

    Then there is pjak. What happens to them. They are Iran's problem. Turkey got 3 out 4. Result is stronger Turkey. Stronger Syria.

    But now YPG will ally with PKK to create more trouble for Turkey. And the captured ISIS fighters will escape and reconstitute themselves and become a headache for every one else. What happens then ?

    US comes back and allies with YPG again to fight ISIS. Maybe not : )

    Like US support when Erdos rising to power back in 2002.

    US is again confused who to support ..

    just like in S-400 incident... the winner was only the Russia...
    Russia is a winner in the sense they are a partner that can be relied on. Gulf countries who disagree with Russian support of Syria still respect that support.

    Anything more remains to be seen. Russia & Iran are together. China is behind them.

    Saudis & Iran do a swap through Russian mediation. Iran lets go of Yemen for Saudi recognition and support for Syria.

    Then there is Israel. They have been quiet. Little too quiet. It means the Americans are still in play to prevent a land bridge between Iran & Lebanon.

    Where is Turkey in all of this ? further adrift or closer to shore. Tell me.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 17 Oct 19, at 00:08.

  10. #2890
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    9,688
    Right now this topic is missing a certain troung : )

  11. #2891
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
    Join Date
    01 Nov 09
    Location
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Posts
    3,781
    I don't know if Kato reads this thread or not but I would hope so. I just read something in Spiegel Online concerning the defense minister proposing a security zone in Syria. I assume manned with German soldiers.

    I am curious about the political ramifications for one. What do German allies think? What do German people think? What does Kato think? You have Russia in the region to deal with. You also have Turkey who I think Germany feels illegally invaded Syria. You also have Syria where you have called for Assad to leave for years now.
    Last edited by tbm3fan; 28 Oct 19, at 20:26.

  12. #2892
    FreeGeneral Senior Contributor Big K's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Dec 06
    Location
    Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey
    Posts
    2,511
    The Fatal Flaw in Trump's ISIS Plan

    Robert Stephen Ford (born 1958) is a retired American diplomat who served as the United States Ambassador to Algeria from 2006 to 2008 and the United States Ambassador to Syria from 2010 to 2014.


    Can he keep both the Turks and the Kurds on his side?

    ROBERT FORD

    MAY 11, 2017When Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Washington next week, he and President Donald Trump will no doubt spend considerable time discussing the future of the Syrian-Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), America’s favored contingent in the war against the Islamic State. With U.S. assistance over the past two and a half years, the YPG-dominated anti-ISIS forces have recaptured some 7,400 square kilometers of northeastern Syria from the terrorist group. From Erdogan’s perspective, this strategy, embraced by the Obama administration and now Trump, is helping a Kurdish terrorist group that threatens Turkey’s security and territorial integrity—security and territorial integrity that NATO is supposed to help defend. Erdogan’s likely response: more pressure on America’s Syrian-Kurdish allies, even if that pressure undermines Washington’s goal of reducing the Arab-extremist threat in eastern Syria.

    Recent events show how complicated this will be for the Trump administration. After Turkey’s bombing of YPG positions in northern Iraq and Syria on April 25, a U.S. military officer met with a known commander of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), an insurgent group that has long been a thorn in Turkey’s side, and has held a spot on the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list since 1997. The meeting provoked outrage in Turkey and drew a sharp rebuke from Erdogan. The announcement on Wednesday that the United States would arm the YPG demonstrated that Erdogan has failed to convince the Americans to reverse course with the PYD-YPG, despite intense lobbying. His visit to Washington promises to be a difficult one for both governments.

    As autocratic and intemperate as he is, Erdogan isn’t actually wrong about the commingling of various Kurdish outfits. In a 2013 interview with Osman Ocalan, the brother of imprisoned PKK leader Abdallah Ocalan, Osman claimed that he and other PKK figures founded the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the YPG’s political arm, in 2003 in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains, the headquarters of the PKK. The PYD is also a member of the Kurdish Communities Union, established in 2005 in Qandil by the Kurdish People’s Congress, a PKK organization that the State Department added to the FTO in January 2004. The co-chairperson of the executive council of the Kurdish Communities Union is Cemil Baylik, the acting leader of the PKK. In addition, hardened PKK activists, fighters, and commanders fill the ranks of the PYD and YPG. A YPG fighter told The Wall Street Journal that he had been with the PKK before, and that fighters regularly rotated between PKK armed entities. Iraqi Kurdish Region President Masud Barzani, a close ally of the United States against ISIS, said in March 2016 that the PYD and the PKK are basically the same entity.

    Yet, the Trump administration (and Obama’s before him) keep contending, as recently as March 8, that the PYD-YPG and PKK are separate entities. But this has no basis in observable fact. And given the organic links between the YPG and the PKK, the PYD-YPG autonomous zone in northeastern Syria will likely provide strategic depth for the PKK’s ongoing and future fight against Turkey—something Erdogan knows and fears. There are reports out of Turkey already that Kurdish militants aligned with the PKK and PYD organized and trained in YPG-held northeastern Syria for attacks conducted in Istanbul, Ankara, and Bursa, in 2016.

    By relying on the YPG in the fight against ISIS, the United States is helping one terror group fight against another. That’s despite its longstanding policy of not working with any organization on the FTO, as it is doing with the YPG, which is effectively synonymous with the PKK. Of course, some argue that the PKK should not be on the U.S. FTO list. An in-depth discussion on the conditions for the PKK’s removal would require months. In the meantime, however, blatantly ignoring the FTO strictures on official U.S. conduct with a listed organization like the PKK and its subsidiaries reflects utter policy incoherence, diminishing America’s credibility on fighting terrorism.

    America’s infatuation with the PYD-YPG also allows it to ignore some uncomfortable realities that will haunt it long after ISIS is ousted from Raqqa. While the PYD-YPG organization is secular, it is not democratic. It has repressed political competitors, detained other Kurdish political activists, and detained and harassed independent journalists. What’s more, its emphasis on gender equality, and its insistence on imposing its political agenda, will cause problems for the future governance of Raqqa, the de facto capital of ISIS, and other Arab-majority towns the United States is now helping it seize from a weakened ISIS.

    Consider the case of Layla Mohammed, a PYD member and women’s rights activist from the town of Tel Abayad on the Turkey-Syria border. In a conversation, a senior U.S. official spoke with admiration of her dedication and commitment to the cause of women in Syria. Over objections from some Arab community leaders in Raqqa, the PYD- and YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (an entity that serves, basically, as a fig leaf by Washington to cover the U.S.-backed YPG campaign against ISIS) named Ms. Mohammed co-chair of a new Raqqa administrative council that will rule Raqqa after ISIS is gone.

    But Raqqa, more than Damascus, Homs, or Aleppo, is known among Syrians as a conservative Arab city, where many communities retain links to tribal networks extending along the Euphrates and eastwards into the Syrian desert towards Iraq. Traditional norms, including those governing the roles of women, prevail. Many Americans find the constraints placed on Arab women objectionable, and would applaud Ms. Mohammed’s activism. But as the Iraq war should have taught Washington, it cannot impose, either directly or through local proxies, its own social and political norms on conservative Middle Eastern communities without potentially provoking a counter-reaction.

    Arab opinions polls from recent years make this tension plain. An unofficial survey of ISIS fighters from 2014 conducted by a Lebanese communications firm showed that defending Sunni communities under attack was the top reason recruits from other Muslim countries joined ISIS. The 2016 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey highlighted how disputes over how best to interpret Islam and perceptions that western culture is being imposed on Arab societies feeds extremist recruitment. The longstanding Arab-Kurdish ethnic competition and the PYD’s ideological agenda, such as suddenly imposing gender equality, stand to boost extremist recruitment once ISIS shifts to insurgency mode after the fall of Raqqa.

    Most worrisome: evidence that Sunni-Arab extremists learn and adapt from their own mistakes. In Idlib province in northwest Syria, al-Qaeda shifted away from the brutal tactics it honed in Iraq from 2004 to 2009. Instead, by transitioning into something of an “al-Qaeda, Version 3.0,” it has reduced violence against local populations, provided infrastructure-service delivery through local administrators, and integrated more with local communities. If the Arab communities of eastern Syria perceive that the PYD-YPG seeks to dominate them, wiser al-Qaeda and ISIS leaders in Syria may be poised to pick up more recruits and embed in communities, making the coming Arab insurgency harder to contain.

    For now, ISIS is still in Raqqa and hasn’t yet shifted into wide-scale insurgency mode. But it won’t be long until Washington will have to decide who will control and govern Raqqa and eastern Syria, and who will pay for it. As Colin Powell told George W. Bush in 2003, if Bush toppled Saddam, America would “own” Iraq and have to take responsibility for it. America may soon have 1,000 more troops on the ground in eastern Syria, and its proxies are seizing new territory from ISIS every week with U.S. support, including a Marine artillery battalion and regular airstrikes. There are even U.S. peacekeepers deployed in Manbij and near Tel Abayad to keep Turkish, Syrian-Arab, and Syrian-Kurdish fighters from shooting at each other. America now effectively owns eastern Syria.

    The Obama administration knowingly launched America in this direction, but Trump, who denounced nation-building in his campaign, will pay the larger bills now coming due. America’s difficulties will be even worse if Turkey stokes further anti-PYD-YPG sentiment in this Arab-majority region. Thus, we will need to cut a deal with Erdogan.

    The saddest part of all this is that the Syrian Kurds, like so many Middle Easterners before them, think the Americans will protect them from their enemies. They have forgotten the bitter experience of Mustafa Barzani, the Iraqi-Kurdish leader whom the Americans backed in the 1970s against the Iraqi Baathist regime, only to sell them out in 1975 when the U.S.-backed Shah of Iran cut a deal with Baghdad. Henry Kissinger halted the U.S. arms supply to Barzani, and Iraqi forces overran Iraqi Kurdistan. Mustafa Barzani, father of President Masud Barzani, had to flee and died in exile in the U.S. Especially with presidents like Obama and Trump, the Syrian Kurds of today should expect no better of the Americans.
    Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

  13. #2893
    Contributor NUS's Avatar
    Join Date
    29 Aug 08
    Posts
    583
    Nobody cares now, but still nice to know:

    https://wikileaks.org/opcw-douma/

    Internal OPCW E-Mail
    23 November, 2019
    OPCW management accused of doctoring Syrian chemical weapons report
    Wikileaks today publishes an e-mail, sent by a member of an OPCW fact-finding mission to Syria to his superiors, in which he expresses his gravest concern over intentional bias introduced to a redacted version of the report he co-authored.
    Winter is coming.

  14. #2894
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    1,477
    Quote Originally Posted by NUS View Post
    Nobody cares now, but still nice to know:

    https://wikileaks.org/opcw-douma/
    Legalese to CYA. As the report stated, the forensic team arrived after the American/British/French strikes. The forensic team was not there to determine the validity of the attack. That was based on time sensitive actionable intel. Best action possible based on best intel available. Was the intel wrong? Your whistle blower report at best said, he cannot confirm nor deny the intel was wrong, just that the now obsolete evidence (again time sensitive due to material degrade) does not support the intel.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Uzbekistan, and other developments in Central Asia
    By cyppok in forum Central and South Asia
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 01 Aug 13,, 12:31
  2. Top Ten Chinese Military Modernization Developments
    By oneman28 in forum East Asia and the Pacific
    Replies: 96
    Last Post: 23 Jun 08,, 06:49
  3. Replies: 6
    Last Post: 09 Oct 07,, 17:58
  4. Iran And Possible Developments
    By Gazi in forum The Middle East and North Africa
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 26 Feb 06,, 17:02
  5. Syrian and Islamist?
    By tarek in forum The Middle East and North Africa
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 19 Jan 05,, 02:46

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •