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Thread: Syrian Civil War Developments

  1. #2536
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big K View Post
    actually it is very simple.

    Turkey will not allow any new state within the borders or Syria and/or Iraq. Especially one that is founded by a terrorist organisation like PKK.

    So Turkish operation is not for acquiring land from Syria but at first to prevent any new "state" to reach mediterranean. The second objective will be to ensure what ever necessary to stay that way.
    Except Turkey is the bittiest of the bit players in this drama. She can only dance where the Russians and Americans are not. Russia pounded the snot out of the Turkomen rebels and Turkey wept but did little else. Turkey's initial invasion saw its vaunted leopard tanks slaughtered and she contributed almost nothing to the fight against IS and acted as the conduit for jihadis. Its not been a good war for Turkey. Turkey would be better served by re-starting the peace process with the PKK.

  2. #2537
    Padishah Shahanshah Senior Contributor xerxes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    I think this is very interesting.

    Russia is backing Assad but has no interest in seeing he and the Iranians control more oil fields. Makes perfect sense. Russia doesn't want more oil production and more fields under Iranian control means more bargaining power for Iran in OPEC.

    Just shared interests after all.

    We just found a wedge issue between Russia v. Iran+Syria.

    Another possible Russian consideration: Russian is the interlocutor Syria and Iran needs during the current fragmentation and chaos. If Iran and Syria consolidates control, Russia won't be so necessary anymore and it won't be so important to Turkey and Israel either. So maybe the current situation suits Moscow just fine.

    I disagree with your assertion that Russia doesn't want Syrian oil under Iranian control because its supposed clout with OPEC. Syrian production at most never reached 1 million bbd at its pre-war peak (if i recall). Today probably is less than quarter than that. Just not enough to help push Iranian oil production beyond its 4 m bbd or so. Iran has already captured the low hanging fruits in its own production when sanctions were lifted and its searching for that incremental improvement for a diminishing return is not yielding results as fast as it wants. Said differently it has enough on its plate with its own oil infrastructure.

    Personally doubt if an additional 0.25 million bbd will give any leverage against the giant production levels of Saudi Arabia, Russia and US. Each of which are north of +9.5 million bbd. Iran's leverage in OPEC evaporated when it chose to maximize its production post-sanction. In other words, it fired its gun, and now is empty and the overhang is gone.

    In fact, i would say both Moscow and Tehran would be happy that all possible oil production should fall under Assad control, so that it can finance itself to a degree, pay for its re-constrcution cost (and guess who will be doing the reconstruciton*) and become more self reliant.

    * Nope not Dick Cheney (that was the Iraq War). But possibly his Russian or Iranian counter using the old age playbook. There are scums everywhere I guess. Just with different flags and Constitution.
    If we contrast the rapid progress of this mischievous discovery of gunpowder with the slow and laborious advances of reason, science, and the arts of peace, a philosopher, according to his temper, will laugh or weep at the folly of mankind. - Edward Gibbon

  3. #2538
    Padishah Shahanshah Senior Contributor xerxes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Weird thing about this war ? where are the Arabs

    The actors are all non-arabs. Israelis, Americans, Turks, Russians & Iranians fighting in it.
    There are Arabs.
    The Qataris are backers of Ankara but not directly involved.
    If we contrast the rapid progress of this mischievous discovery of gunpowder with the slow and laborious advances of reason, science, and the arts of peace, a philosopher, according to his temper, will laugh or weep at the folly of mankind. - Edward Gibbon

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