Page 167 of 189 FirstFirst ... 158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176 ... LastLast
Results 2,491 to 2,505 of 2834

Thread: Syrian Civil War Developments

  1. #2491
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,848
    Quote Originally Posted by Dazed View Post
    The Russians were six miles away and heard nothing. I believe that is deniability. Putin is going to have to decide if he wants to engage the Turks and the US.
    I think this is very interesting.

    Russia is backing Assad but has no interest in seeing he and the Iranians control more oil fields. Makes perfect sense. Russia doesn't want more oil production and more fields under Iranian control means more bargaining power for Iran in OPEC.

    Just shared interests after all.

    We just found a wedge issue between Russia v. Iran+Syria.

    Another possible Russian consideration: Russian is the interlocutor Syria and Iran needs during the current fragmentation and chaos. If Iran and Syria consolidates control, Russia won't be so necessary anymore and it won't be so important to Turkey and Israel either. So maybe the current situation suits Moscow just fine.

  2. #2492
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    11,776
    I've read rumors that several Russian PMCs from the Wagner Group were killed in that battle near Deir ez-Zor.

    In response to citanon, the Russians don't care about Syria as far as oil goes. Their naval base at Tartus is the only one the Russian Navy has in the entire Mediterranean (or anywhere else in the world, for the matter). Without it the Russian Navy is essentially confined to supporting fleet operations in the Mediterranean from the Black Sea. The rest of the Mediterranean is a hostile theater for them, as NATO controls the entire northern coastline, Egypt, Israel, Tunisia and Morocco are US-aligned, and Algeria is closely tied to France despite their past. Russia's only ally elsewhere that had Mediterranean access, Serbia, got landlocked after Montenegro gained independence (ultimately joining NATO in 2017).

    Russia also has significant investments in Syria pre-dating the civil war, and Syria's been a long-time customer for Russian weapon exports.

    It basically comes down to Mediterranean and Middle East power projection. Syria is their last lifeline as far as that's concerned. Russia's support for Assad and the policy they've been conducting is entirely unsurprising taking that into account. Without Assad they're basically completely shut out.

    Ultimately, Russian aims in Syria serve geopolitical ends for them.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 12 Feb 18, at 19:35.

  3. #2493
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,848
    Iron Duke,

    I agree with your points. I think that's precisely why they want a weak and fragmented+ Syria dependent on Russia's military prowess.

    If Syria were to stabilize and Syria were to have greater oil resources, iran might become the senior partner in the relationship instead of Russia.

  4. #2494
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    11,776
    Syria already had vastly strengthened ties to Russia beginning in 2005, prior to the civil war, while at the same time Syria already had pre-existing strong and continuing deepening ties with Iran. I don't see it as an either-or proposition, that Russia is competing for influence in Syria against Iran, or vice versa. Iran and Russia have mutual interests that are closely aligned anyways, they are co-operative, not competitive. I don't really think Russia is all that earnest where its stated interests in the outcome apparently diverge from those in Iran in Syria, I think that's mostly for show.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 12 Feb 18, at 22:17.

  5. #2495
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,848
    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    Syria already had vastly strengthened ties to Russia beginning in 2005, prior to the civil war, while at the same time Syria already had pre-existing strong and continuing deepening ties with Iran. I don't see it as an either-or proposition, that Russia is competing for influence in Syria against Iran, or vice versa. Iran and Russia have mutual interests that are closely aligned anyways, they are co-operative, not competitive. I don't really think Russia is all that earnest where its stated interests in the outcome apparently diverge from those in Iran in Syria, I think that's mostly for show.
    Russia is competing with everyone all the time, just like every faction within Russia is competing with each other and the players within Putin's camp are competing.

    It's a fractal landscape of simultaneous cooperation and competition that is never on pause and never limited to one set of external enemies.

    Russia didn't say anything in this case. They showed with their inaction, which is much more telling.

  6. #2496
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    11,776
    Yes, everybody competes and co-operates.

    I just don't see any differences between Iran and Russia in Syria that are serious enough where any wedges can be driven given the current state of affairs internationally.

  7. #2497
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,848
    This story is getting more interesting by the minute. Apparently "some" might actually be as many as 200 members of the Wagner Group:

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/02/1...yria-dead.html

    This begs the question, what was this? A Bay of Pig* type thing where plausible deniability kicked in when things went south, an actual rogue operation by Wagner in support of Syrian employers, a way for Russia to deal with an increasingly uncontrollable armed element using others' hands? A mix of the above?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...hters-in-syria

    Apparently the Wagner Group is paid in oil concessions. Interesting.
    Last edited by citanon; 13 Feb 18, at 17:49.

  8. #2498
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    11,776
    This footage is claimed to be US airstrikes on a Wagner Group tank and artillery position.



    https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video...fS0da4wr-1.mp4

    In Syria, in the province of Dair al-Zor, on February 7, the American coalition against the Islamic State dealt a massive blow to the pro-Assad forces in the Euphrates River valley, of which at least four killed were Russian soldiers of the Wagner PMC. Their names were revealed by the group of investigators known as the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) on Twitter, according to social media posts by the soldiers' relatives and acquaintances.

    According to CIT, Alexey Ladygin from Ryazan, Stanislav Matveyev, Igor Kosoturov from Asbest city of Sverdlovsk region, and Vladimir Loginov from the Kaliningrad region were killed in Dair al-Zor.
    https://www.rbc.ru/politics/12/02/20...c3ae?from=main
    Last edited by Ironduke; 13 Feb 18, at 18:54.

  9. #2499
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,848
    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    This footage is claimed to be US airstrikes on a Wagner Group tank and artillery position.



    https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video...fS0da4wr-1.mp4
    The last frame of that appears to come from this CNN report:



    Also, here's a fox news report talking about what was used


  10. #2500
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,848
    Another tank was destroyed in the same area on Saturday.

    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/02...cials-say.html

  11. #2501
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    11,776
    From what I've been able to gather from open source information, the Conoco Plant at Omar Field was the target of the Russian PMC/Syrian push, attacking from Khsham/Al-Tabbiyah.

    Last edited by Ironduke; 15 Feb 18, at 03:12.

  12. #2502
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    11,776
    Russian toll in Syria battle was 300 killed and wounded: sources

    MOSCOW (Reuters) - About 300 men working for a Kremlin-linked Russian private military firm were either killed or injured in Syria last week, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

    A Russian military doctor said around 100 had been killed, and a source who knows several of the fighters said the death toll was in excess of 80 men.

    The timing of the casualties coincided with a battle on Feb. 7 near the Syrian city of Deir al-Zor where, according to U.S. officials and associates of the fighters involved, U.S.-led coalition forces attacked forces aligned with Moscow’s ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

    Russian officials said five citizens may have been killed but they had no relation to Russia’s armed forces.

    The clashes show Moscow is more deeply involved in Syria militarily than it has said, and risks being drawn into direct confrontation with the United States in Syria.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...+World+News%29

    Separately from that:

    Fifteen Russian security staff killed in Syria explosion

    Fifteen Russians employed in Syria by a private security company have been killed after an explosion rocked an arms depot at their base in the country, according to a monitoring group.

    The incident happened at the company’s weapons storage facility at Tabiya Jazira in the northeastern province of Deir Ezzor, said the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

    Observatory directory Rami Abdel Rahman said the company in question was in charge of “protecting the oil and gas fields controlled by the Syrian regime”.

    The Russian workers were accompanying regime forces as they advanced towards the oil and gas fields on the eastern banks of Euphrates river controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed alliance of Arab and Kurdish fighters.

    The Observatory’s website suggested the regime fighters had been trying to access weapons at the depot but set off a booby-trap explosion. It said a total of 23 people were killed, including the 15 Russians. The other casualties were believed to be regime fighters of the al-Baqir brigade.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...yria-explosion
    Last edited by Ironduke; 15 Feb 18, at 19:15.

  13. #2503
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,848
    Jesus. This has not been a good week for those guys.

    These being PMCs, I'm guessing the wounded get a thanks and farewell and that's pretty much yet?

  14. #2504
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,848


    I was wrong. They don't get a thanks, or a farewell.

  15. #2505
    FreeGeneral Senior Contributor Big K's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Dec 06
    Location
    Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey
    Posts
    2,501
    U.S. offered to use YPG to fight PKK – Turkish Minister
    U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said the US and Ankara are "finding common ground in Syria. Canikli said Mattis told him that the US believed it was possible to ensure that the YPG turns against Kurdish PKK militants


    Thursday, 15 February 2018 18:11

    U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Thursday the United States and Turkey are having an open dialogue about their growing differences, and are "finding common ground", AP reported.

    According to AP, speaking at the close of a NATO defence ministers meeting, Mattis presented a more calm and understated view of the escalating rhetoric over America's continued aid to the U.S.-backed Kurdish militants in Syria.

    "I believe we are finding common ground and there are areas of uncommon ground where sometimes war just gives you bad alternatives to choose from," Mattis said, as quoted by AP.

    Turkish Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli said he has asked that the U.S. end its support for the Kurdish militants and remove them from a U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
    Canikli said he told Mattis that U.S. support for the Syrian Kurdish militia, known as YPG, has helped Kurdish rebels in Turkey "to grow and strengthen," posing an increasingly "existential" threat to Turkey. Canikli said he presented documents to Mattis proving "organic" links between the Syrian Kurdish YPG and Kurdish PKK militants, which has waged a decades-long armed conflict in Turkey.

    Mattis characterized the overall conversations as "absolutely open and honest dialogue." And he insisted that the two countries are "coming together on what we can do together."

    Canikli said Mattis told him that the United States believed it was possible to ensure that the YPG turns against Kurdish PKK militants fighting in Turkey. Canikli, however, said he rejected this assumption, insisting that it was "impossible and unrealistic" for the two entities to go against each other.

    The Turkish minister also said that Mattis told him that the U.S. was working on plans to take back weapons supplied to the YPG.
    if the bold&underlined part is true, its sad. because it means that US is in serious need of some decent brains within the administration...
    Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 8 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 8 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Uzbekistan, and other developments in Central Asia
    By cyppok in forum Central and South Asia
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 01 Aug 13,, 12:31
  2. Top Ten Chinese Military Modernization Developments
    By oneman28 in forum East Asia and the Pacific
    Replies: 96
    Last Post: 23 Jun 08,, 06:49
  3. Replies: 6
    Last Post: 09 Oct 07,, 17:58
  4. Iran And Possible Developments
    By Gazi in forum The Middle East and North Africa
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 26 Feb 06,, 16:02
  5. Syrian and Islamist?
    By tarek in forum The Middle East and North Africa
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 19 Jan 05,, 01:46

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •