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Thread: Syrian Civil War Developments

  1. #2431
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Norks are #1 threat? What happened to Iran?
    They signed the deal.

    Iran filled their reactor with cement, removed 15,000 centrifuges, shipped most of their heavy water to the US, and reduced their Uranium stockpile by 98% to just 300kg.

  2. #2432
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    They signed the deal.

    Iran filled their reactor with cement, removed 15,000 centrifuges, shipped most of their heavy water to the US, and reduced their Uranium stockpile by 98% to just 300kg.
    Oh, OK.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKBN15M0SY
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  3. #2433
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Yeah, but compare this to successive nuclear tests and imminent ICBM in NK.

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    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    Yeah, but compare this to successive nuclear tests and imminent ICBM in NK.
    We miss the good Col to tell us how successive they were. Besides, don't you have that shield and like kazillion times more nukes than them? Also, they are not NPT unlike Iran.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  5. #2435
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    From your article: "The White House said the missile test was not a direct breach of Iran's 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers, but that it "violates the spirit of that."

    Iran is adhering to the letter of the nuclear deal they signed, and taking the occasional opportunity to thumb their nose at the US to play to their domestic audience doesn't suddenly make them a huge threat. They can cause some trouble for Israel, but aren't really an existential threat to them without nukes since they have no way to send land forces to fight the Israelis.

    North Korea is already in a position to harm South Korea severely, and once they figure out how to put a nuke on an MRBM they become a serious threat to Japan as well.

    Additionally, Iran's recent ballistic missile tests used missiles that originated in Pyongyang...
    Last edited by SteveDaPirate; 17 Apr 17, at 19:35.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    We miss the good Col to tell us how successive they were. Besides, don't you have that shield and like kazillion times more nukes than them? Also, they are not NPT unlike Iran.
    The thing is no one would care whether NK signed the NPT when they are getting nuked.

    Let's say that our super duper missile defense system has a 90% chance of successfully protecting Anchorage, Seattle, or Honolulu, would a US president take that chance?

    Also, NK has been making strides in their program. Latest estimates give us 3 years tops despite our super squirrelly cyber campaign. That means it's on Trump to act.

    Now take into account the front runner for the SK presidential election saying he wants to try friendly policies with NK and the time horizon to act goes from some time in my term to the few remaining months before that liberal peacenik moron gets elected.

    So yeah, we are on the cusp of fighting a major war in Korea.
    Last edited by citanon; 17 Apr 17, at 19:37.

  7. #2437
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    The thing is no one would care whether NK signed the NPT when they are getting nuked.

    Let's say that our super duper missile defense system has a 90% chance of successfully protecting Anchorage, Seattle, or Honolulu, would a US president take that chance?

    Also, NK has been making strides in their program. Latest estimates give us 3 years tops despite our super squirrelly cyber campaign. That means it's on Trump to act.

    Now take into account the front runner for the SK presidential election saying he wants to try friendly policies with NK and the time horizon to act goes from some time in my term to the few remaining months before that liberal peacenik moron gets elected.

    So yeah, we are on the cusp of fighting a major war in Korea.
    So, let's say I am Kim and I have 20 warheads all can reach SF. Will I fire them? Will the Chinese let me launch?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    So, let's say I am Kim and I have 20 warheads all can reach SF. Will I fire them? Will the Chinese let me launch?
    The Chinese doesn't really get a say. If they did, you wouldn't have the 20 warheads.

    Some reports are saying the Chinese are not even getting their phone calls answered at the moment.

    So, from the US side, the question is not, whether he will do this or that with 20 warheads. The question is do we just take out his ability to get the warheads, or do we kill him also?

  9. #2439
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    The Chinese doesn't really get a say. If they did, you wouldn't have the 20 warheads.

    Some reports are saying the Chinese are not even getting their phone calls answered at the moment.

    So, from the US side, the question is not, whether he will do this or that with 20 warheads. The question is do we just take out his ability to get the warheads, or do we kill him also?
    I'd let the Chinese kill him and turn Norks into Hong Kong. If they don't want to, let the birds fly and take all at once. No brainer. Just dont put boots on the ground and get dragged in a costly ocupation
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  10. #2440
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    I'd let the Chinese kill him and turn Norks into Hong Kong. If they don't want to, let the birds fly and take all at once. No brainer. Just dont put boots on the ground and get dragged in a costly ocupation
    We won't occupy NK. If we smoke Kim and his Regime, part of the peace deal signed in the embers of Pongyang will be the US leaving Korea and a joint occupation and rebuilding of NK by the RoK and PRC. Neither wants the refugees to move North or South so there will be a lot of money spent to keep the Nork peasants in place.

  11. #2441
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    The Chinese doesn't really get a say. If they did, you wouldn't have the 20 warheads.

    Some reports are saying the Chinese are not even getting their phone calls answered at the moment.

    So, from the US side, the question is not, whether he will do this or that with 20 warheads. The question is do we just take out his ability to get the warheads, or do we kill him also?
    Not Xi Jinping's lot.But I bet the Jiang Zemin's gang,via the ex Zhou Yangkang definetely has a call in this.
    And if I were to bet,I'd say this is part of the internal Chinese power struggle.
    Those who know don't speak
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    Turns out of course that the USS Carl Vinson group were NOT sailing toward NK and “We are sending an armada, very powerful” was BS. Ivanka got her licenses to sell stuff in China which is no longer a "currency manipulator" and all is hunky dory - except of course for the allies in South Korea who will never believe another word.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...=.7bcba6471f34

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Turns out of course that the USS Carl Vinson group were NOT sailing toward NK and “We are sending an armada, very powerful” was BS. Ivanka got her licenses to sell stuff in China which is no longer a "currency manipulator" and all is hunky dory - except of course for the allies in South Korea who will never believe another word.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...=.7bcba6471f34
    The bluff worked, why wouldn't SK be pleased? Even if the Carl Vinson wasn't headed directly towards SK it was reasonably close and the Reagan is in Yosuka and even if its not immediately ready to surge, its air wing and escorts are ready to go. A third carrier the Roosevelt is in the PG and 3 more are on the Pacific Coast with at least 2 able to surge in short order.

  14. #2444
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    The bluff worked, why wouldn't SK be pleased? Even if the Carl Vinson wasn't headed directly towards SK it was reasonably close and the Reagan is in Yosuka and even if its not immediately ready to surge, its air wing and escorts are ready to go. A third carrier the Roosevelt is in the PG and 3 more are on the Pacific Coast with at least 2 able to surge in short order.
    1. Who said it was a bluff? I mean this President says things that cannot be true (GCHQ wiretapping etc). He's out of control frankly.
    2. A bluff may work in a poker game but in international politics without telling your allies it is inadvisable at best. You recall Obama's "red line" I presume? Guess what signal Trump's bluff sent to South Korea? Still he is bluff and smoke all along - his words are like wind and actions failed (Yemen) or worthless (Syria).
    Last edited by snapper; 20 Apr 17, at 03:25.

  15. #2445
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    We miss the good Col to tell us how successive they were. Besides, don't you have that shield and like kazillion times more nukes than them? Also, they are not NPT unlike Iran.
    That's not what the word successive means, I believe.

    In any case, a nuclear dud is still a rather powerful bomb.

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