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Thread: Syrian Civil War Developments

  1. #2416
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    Why is the Syrian problem "ours" to solve?

    NK is our problem to solve. ISIS is our problem to solve. The greater Syrian crisis is a situation to address on an as needed basis.
    How would a nuclear armed Iran, the power of which stretched from the Afghan border to the Lebanese coast through Iraq and Syria be? Would that be a problem? Fancy a Saudi -Iranian nuclear conflict? No problem for you? Tell me what that might mean regarding energy?


    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Syria was just the paper the message was written on. It was signed sealed and delivered to the real recipients. Putin- "reign in Assad", and oh look, we hit a base you had troops on to serve our interests.... think about what we will do if you get froggy in the Baltics. Xi- "We're back", and if you don't deal with Kim we will and that means we have to devote even more resources to Asia. Kim, "your next bitch". NATO, the US will confront Russia.
    Yes yes and as I said I take you point of "sending a message" so far as it goes - and it is questionable how far it can go in so far as it was intended to be of significant military value. When you have to warn the Muscovites in advance and hope they do not pass on the message to the Syrian butcher who can operate from the same base the next day... well you take my meaning; some 'stroke of genius' this was.

    You fools need to face the facts: There is no Syria or Iraq anymore. There are Sunni's (the majority in Syria), Shia (the majority in Iraq), Alawites (Assad's bunch) and Kurds (and a few unfortunate Assyrian Christians and sundry other minorities who we should do our best to get out). The Muscovites have the Alawite's back; they need their areas on the coast for Tartus. Whether the Syrian part of Kurdistan joins up with Iraqi Kurdistan is unclear as yet. The Iraqi Government is vindictively Shia and the only way to prevent an Iranian Shia crescent that will continue the massacre of the Sunni and next go after Lebanon and Jordan is to create a moderate form of Daesh that the Sunni's in Western Iraq and Central Syria can accept. Assad created Daesh as much did the Iraqi government - and the 'west' in the longer run by overthrowing Saddam and then leaving them to it. Sure Daesh has to go as does Assad and the Muscovites need assurances about the coast but creating the new 'Sunnistan' and perhaps Kurdistan out of the fractured pieces is in the interests of the West and the local population. Personally I would also seriously consider a unified Kurdistan allied to this new Sunni state which in turn would be supported by the Gulf Arabs. It is not that I am anti Shia (though I do find some of the specifics of their faith pretty incredulous) and pro Sunni but the Sauds and Hashemites are and have been our allies since WW1 (though at the time the Sauds were clients of British India which to some extent pursued it's own interests). The Persian theocracy has been nothing but trouble and due to the useless policies of previous years is undoubtedly continuing to acquire it's own nuclear weapons with which to intimidate others and control the Gulf oil supply. The Northern Korean lesson is clear; Clinton made a 'deal'; they would stop their nuclear program and all would be rosy... except they didn't keep their end of the deal and nothing happened. You think the Iranians are stupid?

    You see I am not blaming your beloved egotist Trump for these problems - Obama was certainly at fault but he made the calculation that Syria didn't matter and that the Iranian deal would stick. I thought he was wrong then and said so on this forum and elsewhere. In a way it was Bush and Blair's fault for the second Iraqi war, which in all fairness had I been in their position I too would have committed to. So long as the Arabs cannot be happy in their own lands the terrorists and refugees will keep coming. You can ban migration all you like but they will find a way. So when you tell me that this is "not our problem" or that this largely ineffective strike on one airfield was a 'stroke of genius' I must question your motives and understanding.

  2. #2417
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    Both sides are ready to send messages to the last Syrian and their mercs.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/334062...strikes-video/

    (I know The Sun is not the preffered source, but I am lazy)
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  3. #2418
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Both sides are ready to send messages to the last Syrian and their mercs.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/334062...strikes-video/

    (I know The Sun is not the preffered source, but I am lazy)
    This is a thermobaric bomb but a lot smaller than a moab.

  4. #2419
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    They also allegedly used cluster bombs.

    Edit to add: these are all used near the place where the gas attack occurred.

    That's why I say they send messages.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  5. #2420
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    As a post script to the above consider what happens if the post Syria and Iraq world is accepted? Border changes are acceptable when done by force? What message would this send? War in Europe, and almost certainly elsewhere, would be nigh on inevitable sooner rather than later. Now as I have said I have nothing against Trump personally having never had the displeasure of meeting him to be "grabbed by the pussy". I know there are many in the US who understand and recognise these problems probably far more deeply than I; it is not my area of expertise nor my problem but do you think Trump understands the stakes and risks? One strike on an airfield for the press and this is some 'genius' at work? Get real.

  6. #2421
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    They also allegedly used cluster bombs.

    Edit to add: these are all used near the place where the gas attack occurred.

    That's why I say they send messages.
    They are trying to, but suddenly their stage seems smaller, and their message is diminished.

    Donald Trump sent a message to Assad with 59 cruise missiles, then dropped a huge bomb on IS half the world away a couple of days later, and then moved an aircraft carrier battle group to NK a couple days after that, all the while getting what he wants from the president of China.

    Putin is down to dropping a few bombs on the same patch of dirt he's been bombing for months, bullying the same poor people who can't fight back.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Not my friends... As bad as Assad is, when/if he falls it is going to be Armageddon for Syria's Shia, Christian and Druze populations. It will be the greatest genocide since at least the Khmer Rouge, maybe since WWII. If you think I have any sympathy for salafist Sunni populations you are mistaken. The only rebel Syrians I support are the White Helmets becuase we are kindred spirits.
    Not really. Assad can fall but the Shia and Alawites are not going to collapse. The opposition is too fractured and too exhausted.

    As soon as Assad and IS are gone the conflict between the moderate and Islamist rebels will intensify. The Kurds will be preoccupied with the Turks. The Russians and Iranians will try to figure out how to salvage their territories.

    What you have in the end is Syria split along religious and ethnic lines.

    The West is already backing the Kurds but they need an additional group to solidify in non Kurdish areas.

    Then the partition will need to be recognized with Syria as a lose confederation for show.

  8. #2423
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    all the while getting what he wants from the president of China.
    What did he get? Wasn't China a currency manipulator that would be denounced on Day 1? Moreover wasn't Syria a waste of time; nothing in it for us? This is all sham.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    What did he get? Wasn't China a currency manipulator that would be denounced on Day 1? Moreover wasn't Syria a waste of time; nothing in it for us? This is all sham.
    China is manipulating it's currency to make it stronger. He's going to make them spend even more? What would he ask for? For the Yuan to become the Pound?

    China is increasing pressure on NK. That's what he wanted. In case you haven't noticed, NK is our security threat 1, and there's not that much time left before hard measures.

    Syria is just a side show right now. There are some parts of it we have to do. Other parts, not so much.

  10. #2425
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    Not really. Assad can fall but the Shia and Alawites are not going to collapse. The opposition is too fractured and too exhausted.

    As soon as Assad and IS are gone the conflict between the moderate and Islamist rebels will intensify. The Kurds will be preoccupied with the Turks. The Russians and Iranians will try to figure out how to salvage their territories.

    What you have in the end is Syria split along religious and ethnic lines.

    The West is already backing the Kurds but they need an additional group to solidify in non Kurdish areas.

    Then the partition will need to be recognized with Syria as a lose confederation for show.
    The jihadis are only exhausted because we keep hammering them. If we ever let up they will rebound. We had them smoked by 09. In 11 they had reconstituted enough to take over large parts of Syria and by 14 they took Mosul. Salafist ideology Madrassas and Mosques keep churning out barely bearded virgins hoping to go all the way with 72 heavenly faced virgins.

  11. #2426
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    The jihadis are only exhausted because we keep hammering them. If we ever let up they will rebound. We had them smoked by 09. In 11 they had reconstituted enough to take over large parts of Syria and by 14 they took Mosul. Salafist ideology Madrassas and Mosques keep churning out barely bearded virgins hoping to go all the way with 72 heavenly faced virgins.
    They came back because the Malawi government systematically dismantled the forces opposing them and the Assad government systematically nurtured them during the earlier stages of the Syrian conflict. That particular part of history doesn't have to repeat again, nor would Assad's presence stop it. It's not as if we want to topple a stable government. The reality is he had failed pretty much all on his own.

    The choice we have in Syria is not between Assad, IS, or AQ. They ALL have to die. The only questions we should be asking are in what sequence and by whose hand.

  12. #2427
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    China is manipulating it's currency to make it stronger. He's going to make them spend even more? What would he ask for? For the Yuan to become the Pound?

    China is increasing pressure on NK. That's what he wanted. In case you haven't noticed, NK is our security threat 1, and there's not that much time left before hard measures.

    Syria is just a side show right now. There are some parts of it we have to do. Other parts, not so much.
    Deary me, contradictions all over... I thought China was deliberately devaluing their currency so as to increase exports? Was I mistaken? Or when did this change to the opposite?

    "What would he ask for?" You tell me since you claim "all the while getting what he wants from the president of China." You seemed to know... that is why I asked. I presumed pressure on NK as you say but currency manipulation change that was due on "Day 1"? Not a hope in hell.

    I fully agree Syria is a 'sideshow'; hardly the place for a some essentially meaningless supposed "stroke of genius" but it remains so only for the moment and it will not remain so for much longer; in some respects this is Obama's fault. Certainly a strong message sent in NK may educate the Persian theocracy but who can say? They are after all believe they have a Divine message and authority... Personally I would say if you want to do this do Syria first - a Korean conflict has no end of trouble and ultimately if won would let the Chinks in long term. But Trump I believe will do sod all; pure sham to distract from domestic issues - much like Putin strangely (or not).

  13. #2428
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    Norks are #1 threat? What happened to Iran?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  14. #2429
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Deary me, contradictions all over... I thought China was deliberately devaluing their currency so as to increase exports? Was I mistaken? Or when did this change to the opposite?
    They manipulated their currency to help exports, until they decided they needed to strengthen their currency to prevent capital flight.

    "What would he ask for?" You tell me since you claim "all the while getting what he wants from the president of China." You seemed to know... that is why I asked. I presumed pressure on NK as you say but currency manipulation change that was due on "Day 1"? Not a hope in hell.
    Trump is apparently able to change his approach based on current realities. Try to keep up.

    I fully agree Syria is a 'sideshow'; hardly the place for a some essentially meaningless supposed "stroke of genius" but it remains so only for the moment and it will not remain so for much longer; in some respects this is Obama's fault. Certainly a strong message sent in NK may educate the Persian theocracy but who can say? They are after all believe they have a Divine message and authority... Personally I would say if you want to do this do Syria first - a Korean conflict has no end of trouble and ultimately if won would let the Chinks in long term. But Trump I believe will do sod all; pure sham to distract from domestic issues - much like Putin strangely (or not).
    We don't "do" these enormous efforts and sacrifices out of arbitrary want. We must only do them out of need. We NEED to solve NK problem because in just 2 or 3 years we could have someone whom has killed his own uncle and brother and scores of others close to him for arbitrary reasons be able to put a nuke in down town Seattle. That same person also has a desire to proliferate those nukes into the hands of our enemies. That is absolutely unacceptable and that's why we must do NK. There is no similar reason to "do" Assad. Neither Assad nor Iran can hurt us, and have the likelihood of hurting us, the way NK can. Our urgent mission in Syria remains IS.

  15. #2430
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    Trump is apparently able to change his approach based on current realities. Try to keep up.
    Would not the same be true to say of total idiot doing erratic things at a whim oblivious as whether there is no full plan of where to go or how to get there (as in this Syrian strike) to divert public attention from a criminal investigation into his election? I mean a monkey given a set of buttons which signified options would be just as erratic and presumably 'brilliant' for this. If North Korea is your problem the Syrian strike makes tons of sense! Too clever for anyone to connect them! Must be genius right?

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