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Thread: Syrian Civil War Developments

  1. #2401
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amled View Post
    Assad, (looking ahead) wins by showing, (as if anyone needed reminding!) “his” people that he’s willing to use any means, however ruthless and barbaric they may be, to stay in power.
    Putin wins, in that at no cost to himself, the action might deflect some of the flack raining down on Russian involvement with the Assad regime, as well as the ongoing hacking scandal.
    Trump wins in that he has shown balls! No pussy footing around with a line in the sand BS! And again, it may deflect some of the talk about his alleged Russian ties. - Price : 59Tomahawk Cruise Missiles.
    With the exception of the inhabitants and victims of Khan Sheikhoun, it seems like a win/win scenario for everybody!
    Sarin, Chlorine, barrel bombs, artillery, snipers, starvation, unleashing jihadis and other ills dropped on civilian areas... None of it is about staying in power. Conventional military action keeping the rebels out of government controlled areas is what keeps him in power. The horrors visited on the civillians is about denying the rebels the ability to set up a truly functioning civil society in opposition to Assad.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Sarin, Chlorine, barrel bombs, artillery, snipers, starvation, unleashing jihadis and other ills dropped on civilian areas... None of it is about staying in power. Conventional military action keeping the rebels out of government controlled areas is what keeps him in power. The horrors visited on the civillians is about denying the rebels the ability to set up a truly functioning civil society in opposition to Assad.
    Like.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    My Friend, I think you mistake me; Trump as a person (though I doubt I would like him if I met him) is not my issue. The fact that Moscow at least attempted to interfere in the US elections in his favour troubles me deeply as of course the same enemy has been attacking my family homelands since basically the Mongols passed away. They are now at war with all the 'west', rule of law, acceptance of any diversity and even truth itself.
    The way to counter an old enemy is not to fall for the same tired old tricks over and over again.

    If you think a few fireworks in Syria - for there was no military gain from the Syrian attack - allay my concerns one bit you are mistaken. I regard it rather as a distraction of the sort often used by the Mongol successor mafia in Moscow. If Assad were brought to justice - as he should be for his many crimes - and Syria pacified under a democratic non religious type of Ataturk type system - I would be happy of course;
    Or the stomp your feet and demand the unrealistic like children.

    the 'Shia crescent' from Iran to Lebanon holds deep dangers as does Muscovite influence in Egypt and Libya; in my view Syria should be won now to save a worse future and if I were a President or Prime Minister would not hesitate to put 'boots on the ground'.
    Or to over commit to a small piece of the game board where very concrete costs outweigh abstract benefits.

    But it is just a part of the greater whole into which the debts of your current President to the enemy must be also be weighed.
    But perhaps we should start with the basics, like how people ruthless enough to rise to the top tend to disregard "debts" and screw their "lenders", or do we need to revisit history and psychology 101?

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    citanon, what does the Syrian strike indicate to you? It was valueless as a military strike; planes were taking off from the airfield the day after. It answers nothing regarding the contacts between the Trump campaign and administration and Muscovy or collusion in the Muscovite interference of your democracy.

    As for the 'Shia Crescent' I assure (as I believe your current CIA boss Pompey or something has said) that a 'Shia Crescent' is very bad news for all - firstly Israel... and how do you think they will react if their very existence is risk?

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    citanon, what does the Syrian strike indicate to you? It was valueless as a military strike; planes were taking off from the airfield the day after. It answers nothing regarding the contacts between the Trump campaign and administration and Muscovy or collusion in the Muscovite interference of your democracy.

    As for the 'Shia Crescent' I assure (as I believe your current CIA boss Pompey or something has said) that a 'Shia Crescent' is very bad news for all - firstly Israel... and how do you think they will react if their very existence is risk?
    The strike appears to have been a stroke of genius.

    The US hit another major powers vassal state, even hitting a base where the vassals patron had troops. That Patron either allowed it, or was unable to prevent it. All talk of retaliation aside, unless it happens, Putin got punked and his boy Assad got slapped. The US has demonstrated its willingness to act as it sees fit, no more hat in hand to the UN, no more getting punked by fear of Russian ADA systems.

    In addition, the strike was launched as Trump and Xi were finishing desert, while a US Carrier group was headed for Korea. It was a very clear message to Kim, that China's protection was no longer enough. Even more importantly it told Xi, put a collar on Kim or we will. If Kim backs away from a new nuke test Trump will have achieved two things. First he will have altered the strategic equation on the Korean Pennisula. North Korea depends on Chinese aversion to war on their border. Now though, China is lining up West not east. Second, combined with other recent events like the THAAD deployment it signals a more than theoretical pivot to Asia is underway. A robust US engagement in the area crimps China. If North Korea is the cause, it gives China even more reason to fix their Korea problem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    The strike appears to have been a stroke of genius.

    The US hit another major powers vassal state, even hitting a base where the vassals patron had troops. That Patron either allowed it, or was unable to prevent it. All talk of retaliation aside, unless it happens, Putin got punked and his boy Assad got slapped. The US has demonstrated its willingness to act as it sees fit, no more hat in hand to the UN, no more getting punked by fear of Russian ADA systems.

    In addition, the strike was launched as Trump and Xi were finishing desert, while a US Carrier group was headed for Korea. It was a very clear message to Kim, that China's protection was no longer enough. Even more importantly it told Xi, put a collar on Kim or we will. If Kim backs away from a new nuke test Trump will have achieved two things. First he will have altered the strategic equation on the Korean Pennisula. North Korea depends on Chinese aversion to war on their border. Now though, China is lining up West not east. Second, combined with other recent events like the THAAD deployment it signals a more than theoretical pivot to Asia is underway. A robust US engagement in the area crimps China. If North Korea is the cause, it gives China even more reason to fix their Korea problem.
    Exactly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    citanon, what does the Syrian strike indicate to you? It was valueless as a military strike; planes were taking off from the airfield the day after.
    Valueless as a military strike?

    The missile strike destroyed 20% of the Syrian government's operational aircraft as well as the infrastructure to refuel and rearm aircraft at the base. Cratering the runway would only have put it out of action for a few days unless the US dropped mines to prevent repairs as well, and mines have a habit of causing civilian casualties and bad press.

    I'm not a fan of the Cheeto-in-Chief for a number of reasons, but the strike on Syria was well executed. It sent a political message to a number of parties without endangering any American lives, slapped Assad's wrist and took away some of his toys, and perhaps most importantly it put a dent into the Trump-Putin bromance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    The strike appears to have been a stroke of genius.

    The US hit another major powers vassal state, even hitting a base where the vassals patron had troops. That Patron either allowed it, or was unable to prevent it. All talk of retaliation aside, unless it happens, Putin got punked and his boy Assad got slapped. The US has demonstrated its willingness to act as it sees fit, no more hat in hand to the UN, no more getting punked by fear of Russian ADA systems.

    In addition, the strike was launched as Trump and Xi were finishing desert, while a US Carrier group was headed for Korea. It was a very clear message to Kim, that China's protection was no longer enough. Even more importantly it told Xi, put a collar on Kim or we will. If Kim backs away from a new nuke test Trump will have achieved two things. First he will have altered the strategic equation on the Korean Pennisula. North Korea depends on Chinese aversion to war on their border. Now though, China is lining up West not east. Second, combined with other recent events like the THAAD deployment it signals a more than theoretical pivot to Asia is underway. A robust US engagement in the area crimps China. If North Korea is the cause, it gives China even more reason to fix their Korea problem.
    As a "don't push too far" message it may have had some deterrant value but a one off strike, even if it did destroy "20% of the Syrian government's operational aircraft" (for which there is no evidence whatsoever) does not a 'stroke of genius' make. What is the plan on Syria? There is NONE; Syrian planes were taking off from the same place the next day so it's military effectiveness is clearly not as great as you make it seem. My point is that until and unless you have coherent policy for how to go about solving the Syrian problem no amount of one off strikes make any coherent sense or bring a solution closer. I certainly hope they do have a Syrian plan that involves the removal of Assad and Iranian influence but to do that realistically you are going to need 'boots on the ground' on territory where the Muscovites will be fighting for the bad guy. You want to go that far? Nor does any of it shed one ioata of light on Trumps alleged collusion with Moscow to interfere in the US democratic proceedure. It is rather just more 'smoke'.

    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

    Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin – watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.
    10:39 PM - 9 Oct 2012

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    Have Trump ever said that Assad is to go?

    I remember another POTUS said it, and did nothing even when there were no Russians there. If we exclude their beach property.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    As a "don't push too far" message it may have had some deterrant value but a one off strike, even if it did destroy "20% of the Syrian government's operational aircraft" (for which there is no evidence whatsoever) does not a 'stroke of genius' make. What is the plan on Syria? There is NONE; Syrian planes were taking off from the same place the next day so it's military effectiveness is clearly not as great as you make it seem. My point is that until and unless you have coherent policy for how to go about solving the Syrian problem no amount of one off strikes make any coherent sense or bring a solution closer. I certainly hope they do have a Syrian plan that involves the removal of Assad and Iranian influence but to do that realistically you are going to need 'boots on the ground' on territory where the Muscovites will be fighting for the bad guy. You want to go that far? Nor does any of it shed one ioata of light on Trumps alleged collusion with Moscow to interfere in the US democratic proceedure. It is rather just more 'smoke'.

    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

    Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin – watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.
    10:39 PM - 9 Oct 2012
    Why is the Syrian problem "ours" to solve?

    NK is our problem to solve. ISIS is our problem to solve. The greater Syrian crisis is a situation to address on an as needed basis.

  11. #2411
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    Why is the Syrian problem "ours" to solve?

    NK is our problem to solve. ISIS is our problem to solve. The greater Syrian crisis is a situation to address on an as needed basis.
    The beauty for being the world cop for seven decades. All problems are yours to solve. Except when you actually solve them. Damn if you (do)n't.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    The horrors visited on the civillians is about denying the rebels the ability to set up a truly functioning civil society in opposition to Assad.
    Fresh news from places there your beloved democratic friends won:
    https://www.iom.int/news/iom-learns-...s-north-africa
    SC witnessed a slave market taking place. “Sub-Saharan migrants were being sold and bought by Libyans, with the support of Ghanaians and Nigerians who work for them,” IOM Niger staff reported this week.
    Winter is coming.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NUS View Post
    Fresh news from places there your beloved democratic friends won:
    https://www.iom.int/news/iom-learns-...s-north-africa
    Not my friends... As bad as Assad is, when/if he falls it is going to be Armageddon for Syria's Shia, Christian and Druze populations. It will be the greatest genocide since at least the Khmer Rouge, maybe since WWII. If you think I have any sympathy for salafist Sunni populations you are mistaken. The only rebel Syrians I support are the White Helmets becuase we are kindred spirits.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    As a "don't push too far" message it may have had some deterrant value but a one off strike, even if it did destroy "20% of the Syrian government's operational aircraft" (for which there is no evidence whatsoever) does not a 'stroke of genius' make. What is the plan on Syria? There is NONE; Syrian planes were taking off from the same place the next day so it's military effectiveness is clearly not as great as you make it seem. My point is that until and unless you have coherent policy for how to go about solving the Syrian problem no amount of one off strikes make any coherent sense or bring a solution closer. I certainly hope they do have a Syrian plan that involves the removal of Assad and Iranian influence but to do that realistically you are going to need 'boots on the ground' on territory where the Muscovites will be fighting for the bad guy. You want to go that far? Nor does any of it shed one ioata of light on Trumps alleged collusion with Moscow to interfere in the US democratic proceedure. It is rather just more 'smoke'.

    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

    Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin – watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.
    10:39 PM - 9 Oct 2012
    Syria was just the paper the message was written on. It was signed sealed and delivered to the real recipients. Putin- "reign in Assad", and oh look, we hit a base you had troops on to serve our interests.... think about what we will do if you get froggy in the Baltics. Xi- "We're back", and if you don't deal with Kim we will and that means we have to devote even more resources to Asia. Kim, "your next bitch". NATO, the US will confront Russia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Not my friends... As bad as Assad is, when/if he falls it is going to be Armageddon for Syria's Shia, Christian and Druze populations. It will be the greatest genocide since at least the Khmer Rouge, maybe since WWII. If you think I have any sympathy for salafist Sunni populations you are mistaken. The only rebel Syrians I support are the White Helmets becuase we are kindred spirits.
    White helmets help clean up the set in beheading videos
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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