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Thread: Syrian Civil War Developments

  1. #2311
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    Sorry, but these "major contingents" of moderate secular headchoppers...err I mean rebels existed only in the imaginations of liberal western media. I'll point you to the hilarious fiasco that was the $500 million pentagon program to train an army of moderate rebels to fight ISIS.
    The fiasco happened because they had some ridiculous fantasy of verifying and thoroughly investigating each one, and then telling them to prioritize fighting the Islamists but not Assad.

    The "real" rebels always included Sunni radical jihadi militia like Al-Nusra and the others. They were all always together and received a lot of funds and weapons from your GCC allies. The only time the moderate rebels popped up in the media was when they wanted something from the US. Any weapons given to them would always be shared amongst everyone. If the Russians hadn't stepped in they would have defeated Assad and then fought with each other for control like in Libya. Obama did Syria and the world a favor by not joining the jihadis against Assad and causing a bigger mess.
    It's folly to think one could control the exact flow of weapons in war. Yet, it was equally foolish to think that one could not support a favored contingent because of the lack of control. What instead happened was that everyone except the moderates got support.

    Assad, as much as anybody, helped ISIS rise. He most likely helped engineer it to direct the Western end game. He's the biggest terrorist of all in Syria and he and his ally Iran are our biggest long term problem. Now they are ascendant with Russia thrown into the mix.

  2. #2312
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    Here's Janes best estimate of US arms and ammunition for Syria in 2015.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/weapo...T/#762x39-mm-1

    The total for 2016 isn't in yet, but will probably exceed 2015.
    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/0...035007074.html
    http://fortune.com/2016/03/28/u-s-arms-sales-gulf/

    The idea that the US isn't in boots-and-all in Syria is a myth. It has roughly the same number of boots on the ground as Russia, and has poured far more arms and ammunition, both up front in sales and covert via the CIA. The only difference is Russia has employed its power effectively whereas the US hasn't unless you think prolonging and unwinnable war as effective.
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  3. #2313
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Here's Janes best estimate of US arms and ammunition for Syria in 2015.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/weapo...T/#762x39-mm-1

    The total for 2016 isn't in yet, but will probably exceed 2015.
    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/0...035007074.html
    http://fortune.com/2016/03/28/u-s-arms-sales-gulf/

    The idea that the US isn't in boots-and-all in Syria is a myth. It has roughly the same number of boots on the ground as Russia, and has poured far more arms and ammunition, both up front in sales and covert via the CIA. The only difference is Russia has employed its power effectively whereas the US hasn't unless you think prolonging and unwinnable war as effective.
    One of the ways the US support has been ineffective is that it came too late. Lots of arms are being provided today when it cannot solve the problem, very little was provided when there was a chance the moderates could prevail.

    When the Syria problem started, there were people who came out and reminded the Administration that there is a point at which every problem could be solved with action, but if the opportunity is missed then things spin out of control with no solution. Of course the administration did not listen, and sure enough, we are knee deep in it.

  4. #2314
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    As no one has addressed that:
    Quote Originally Posted by Garry View Post
    Looks like Mosul and Aleppo are going to be taken over soon. It is now matter of time.....
    What do you think would be next moves? Will Asad goes to Idlib or to Deir-E-Zor?
    Assad - what would he want in Deir-e-Zor? It's across the desert, and Palmyra would have to be secured first anyway before moving in that direction (okay, when you posted Daesh didn't have Palmyra yet).

    Since your post there seeems to be moves towards consolidation mostly, with increased focus on in particular smaller enclaves of rebel-controlled territory within Assad-controlled territory such as Wadi Barada northwest of Damascus where water infrastructure supplying the capital is located.

  5. #2315
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    The fiasco happened because they had some ridiculous fantasy of verifying and thoroughly investigating each one, and then telling them to prioritize fighting the Islamists but not Assad.



    It's folly to think one could control the exact flow of weapons in war. Yet, it was equally foolish to think that one could not support a favored contingent because of the lack of control. What instead happened was that everyone except the moderates got support.

    Assad, as much as anybody, helped ISIS rise. He most likely helped engineer it to direct the Western end game. He's the biggest terrorist of all in Syria and he and his ally Iran are our biggest long term problem. Now they are ascendant with Russia thrown into the mix.
    Err,how is Iran your biggest enemy? What can they do to you?
    You miss a lil' option.You should have told everyone to stay put,or else...

    Things being as they are after 6 years,the best thing is to prolong this until the would be revolutionaries in the ME die or develop PTSD.
    So another year or two and a few hundreds thousands dead jihadis is the best possible outcome.
    Plus,the return of all "refugees".


    Your real problem is in Pacific,not in Ali Baba land.Never really was there.
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  6. #2316
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Err,how is Iran your biggest enemy? What can they do to you?
    You miss a lil' option.You should have told everyone to stay put,or else...

    Things being as they are after 6 years,the best thing is to prolong this until the would be revolutionaries in the ME die or develop PTSD.
    So another year or two and a few hundreds thousands dead jihadis is the best possible outcome.
    Plus,the return of all "refugees".


    Your real problem is in Pacific,not in Ali Baba land.Never really was there.
    Do you really need a run down of Iranian activities against the US starting from the 1980s? Bombing of Beirut marine barracks, naval skirmishes in the Persian Gulf, support of terrorist activities around the world, support the Mahdi Army, etc. Other than All Qaeda, they have the most US blood on their hands. Iran wants regional hegemony. The conflicts will continue.

    In Asia we have a game of chess between two superpowers. In the ME we have an adversary engaging in violent conflict against us and our allies at every opportunity, and, lest we forget, the ME is still vital for its oil and for the security of Western Europe.

    Our "options" are really rather limited, since due to our passivity we've now lost the ability to "tell" people to do things or not do things. We had the ability to "tell" people early I'm the conflict but Obama passed that up. Now it's gotten tricky.

    Oh, there's also nothing good about a static conflict killing a few tens of thousand of jihadists while also sacrificing 10x more innocent civilians. This will just create more jihadists and inspire more attacks. You need to actually win in a way that creates conditions for peace. In terms of pure killing, the recruiting pool is far too big for a hundred thousand dead jihadists over 5 years to matter. Armies grow in conflicts like that not shrink. This is why we are now back on the ground.
    Last edited by citanon; 09 Jan 17, at 12:12.

  7. #2317
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    Do you really need a run down of Iranian activities against the US starting from the 1980s? Bombing of Beirut marine barracks, naval skirmishes in the Persian Gulf, support of terrorist activities around the world, support the Mahdi Army, etc. Other than All Qaeda, they have the most US blood on their hands. Iran wants regional hegemony. The conflicts will continue.

    In Asia we have a game of chess between two superpowers. In the ME we have an adversary engaging in violent conflict against us and our allies at every opportunity, and, lest we forget, the ME is still vital for its oil and for the security of Western Europe.

    Our "options" are really rather limited, since due to our passivity we've now lost the ability to "tell" people to do things or not do things. We had the ability to "tell" people early I'm the conflict but Obama passed that up. Now it's gotten tricky.

    Oh, there's also nothing good about a static conflict killing a few tens of thousand of jihadists while also sacrificing 10x more innocent civilians. This will just create more jihadists and inspire more attacks. You need to actually win in a way that creates conditions for peace. In terms of pure killing, the recruiting pool is far too big for a hundred thousand dead jihadists over 5 years to matter. Armies grow in conflicts like that not shrink. This is why we are now back on the ground.
    This qualifies them as "biggest"?
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  8. #2318
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    Not a question that is relevant to the current conversation in this thread but still pertinent to the conflict in Syria : What is Turkey looking to achieve by intervening militarily in Syria? Whats the condition of the Turkish military after the last coup attempt of last July?
    Last edited by dan m; 02 Feb 17, at 23:17.

  9. #2319
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    As many as 13,000 people were hanged in five years at a notorious Syrian government prison near Damascus, Amnesty International has said.

    The rights group accused the regime of a "policy of extermination."

    The report on Saydnaya prison is based on interviews with 84 witnesses, including guards, detainees, and judges.

    Warning: Disturbing content

    It found that at least once a week between 2011 and 2015, groups of up to 50 people were taken out of their prison cells for arbitrary trials, beaten, then hanged "in the middle of the night and in total secrecy."

    "Throughout this process, they remain blindfolded. They do not know when or how they will die until the noose was placed around their necks," the rights group wrote.

    Amnesty said the practices amounted to war crimes and crimes against humanity, but were likely still taking place.

    Thousands of prisoners are held in the military-run Saydnaya prison, one of the country's largest detention centres located 30km north of Damascus.

    Amnesty accused the Syrian government of carrying out a "policy of extermination" there by repeatedly torturing detainees and withholding food, water, and medical care.

    Prisoners were raped or forced to rape each other, and guards would feed detainees by tossing meals onto the cell floor, which was often covered in dirt and blood.

    A twisted set of "special rules" governed the facility: detainees were not allowed to speak and must assume certain positions when guards enter their cells.

    The group has previously said that more than 17,700 people were estimated to have died in government custody across Syria since the country's conflict erupted in March 2011.

    The figure of 13,000 deaths in a single prison, therefore, is a marked increase.

    "The horrors depicted in this report reveal a hidden, monstrous campaign, authorised at the highest levels of the Syrian government, aimed at crushing any form of dissent within the Syrian population," said Lynn Maalouf, deputy director for research at Amnesty's Beirut office.

    "The cold*blooded killing of thousands of defenceless prisoners, along with the carefully crafted and systematic programmes of psychological and physical torture that are in place inside Saydnaya Prison cannot be allowed to continue," she said.

    A probe by the United Nations last year accused Mr Assad's government of a policy of "extermination" in its jails.

    More than 310,000 people have been killed and millions have fled their homes since the conflict began with anti*-Assad protests.
    http://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0207/850695-syria/

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