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Ukraine Updates 2012etc

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  • #16
    Party ratings in Ukraine // Razumkov Centre

    Election polls of different parties...

    Also elections are around October of 2012 for the Parliament.

    Very cool widget you could play with the settings on bottom.

    P.S.
    There are three days left until a Parliament session that was somewhat 'unplanned' for fiscal issues. It is very likely it will get interesting, with language law somehow being pushed through or the speaker removed or something.
    Something has to happen no idea what though. Maybe nothing will but still.
    Last edited by cyppok; 27 Jul 12,, 06:00.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    • #17
      Its about 3 days before they convene a special session in parliament on the 30th. The speaker is saying he never recalled his resignation so technically he is replaceable.

      Right now the situation politically is essentially that the people in power are hated. The attempt at language law (which was promised since the beginning of the Party of Regions formation never actually occurred ever it may now but its one of those too little too late and its obvious that its being done to boost electoral results in October).

      Language law will probably be adopted perhaps not on the 30th but before the elections.
      Two things it creates, one if it is repealed after the elections the fracture of the country will be very real. Second it creates some measure of credibility ("see we did what we promised all those years and years ago").

      Party of Regions will most likely loose the majority in parliament fair or unfair elections it won't much matter after October. What will matter is that before they go they will shift the political and economic imperative to make things different after very very tough if not politically suicidal. Because people usually remember those whom take something away far more than those that gives something to them.

      Most of hatred is due to economic issues which spanned the past two administrations, ergo change in tax rates for people/businesses and other "improvements". Azarov is probably the most hated person in Ukraine.

      Medvedchuk the grey cardinal talking about federalization, or regionalization of Ukraine into weak center strong regions is onto something. The amount of populistic rhetoric, language, pure economic survival of people, and simply stagnational bargaining {where things get discussed over and over but nothing really is done}, is insane. What is happening is redistribution of gas system and electricity to two oligarchs Akhmetov and Firtash with the latter having more say in power discussions since he essentially funded most of the prior elections of those in charge. Regional gas transport systems and heating/electric transport wires are being sold off to them both.

      There are also floating stories that free trade agrement with Russia will be approved on the 30th which may or may not lead Ukraine to join the trade union. There was some pressure in preventing pipes and other things being exported into Russia and a lot of pressure by business community to ratify it. But we shall see, if the language law gets pushed to back burner while this goes through than this was a misdirection. Reality of-course it would be inevitable since the economy cannot function with the Russian market if it was somewhat curtailed for a bit.

      Elections will probably be very bitter and very fractured. Lots of new parties or new parties merged into old parties as BYUT and Front of Changes merged. UDAR is new etc...
      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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      • #18
        Opposition: Lytvyn 'takes part in crime' by signing language bill

        Opposition: Lytvyn 'takes part in crime' by signing language bill
        July 31, 2012, 6:13 p.m. | Ukraine — by Interfax-Ukraine

        "By signing this unconstitutional scribble into law, Lytvyn has become a participant in a crime, as he clearly broke Article 10 of the Constitution of Ukraine, which together with rulings of the Constitutional Court clearly regulates the procedure for the use of languages in Ukraine. This step is a shameful full stop in the career of an unprincipled politician, who is ready to break laws and morals for the sake of himself," reads the statement.

        As reported, Lytvyn signed the bill on the principles of the state language policy on July 31. The document has been sent to Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych for signature.
        We are off to the races. I guess behind the scenes there was some negotiation but the end result is not surprising. I actually somewhat support the language regionalisation idea let everyone participate in their own language, be it speaking or filing government documents.

        The reality of-course is now after the elections if someone rolls it back, severe backlash.
        Language bill signed, passed to president for signature
        Language bill signed, passed to president for signature
        Print version
        July 31, 2012, 4:41 p.m. | Ukraine — by Interfax-Ukraine
        Officially elections for Parliament began on the 30th. So this is like the first day out.
        Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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        • #19
          'Grey cardinal'? He was a Capuchin Friar.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by snapper View Post
            'Grey cardinal'? He was a Capuchin Friar.
            He was the grey cardinal behind Kuchma two presidents ago. Probably has a billion or so funds stashed outside. Now it seems he is more connected in Russia.

            Why do you say Capuchin Friar? Putin came to visit him personally making Yanukovich wait instead... that does say something about whom is more important.

            Also you have to consider the guy is not very into politics right now but does have bureaucratic and oligarchic connections.
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Medvedchuk

            Also to update Yanukovich signed the language bill into law so its official now. Even if opposition wins repealing it would be very very unpopular in half the country. Taking away something is always worse than giving it. Part of the reason the law was made in my view is it streamlines language clauses for people whom do business in Russia and Ukraine which is almost every big business oligarch and it streamlines their legal department cutting some legal waste of translation hours billed etc... So in my view most elites pushed it through for economic reasons.

            I couldn't find the FTA within CIS agreement if it has been ratified by parliament as well or not but it was on the agenda somewhere. This would push them to adopt the Trade Union sooner or later with Russia.
            Last edited by cyppok; 02 Aug 12,, 02:29.
            Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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            • #21
              Ahh I was thinking of the original 'Eminese Grise' of Richelieu repute. My apologies.

              I agree the trade treaty is likely to come next. When will the west stand up and say 'hold on...'? Europe is all too bothered contemplating it's financial naval and Obama and Clinton on the Russian 'restart' is a catastrophe the consequences of which we must start dealing with now before Ukraine and European gas is held as a barter chip in any missile shield. Vive Romney perhaps...

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              • #22
                Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                I don't think you get it. Ukranian and Russian are basically the same language for the most part. The problem is that the version of Ukranian that was being implemented across the country is from western Ukraine it is unrecognizable to most Ukranians and Russians alike because it has a LOT of Polish loan words.
                True enough. Historically speaking, the population was far more multi-ethnic the farther west one traveled in Ukraine. The Ukrainian dialect spoken in the western regions is liberally salted with Polish words (and a sprinkle of Lithuanian). In the eastern city where I was born - Zaporozh'ye - the lingua franka of virtually everyone is Russian. Ukrainian is only used for official legal purposes... government documents and publications, licenses, permits, etc.
                sigpic

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                • #23


                  So far this is where Russian became regional (the Flag is the city the blue is the oblast Nikolaev and Crimea so far haven't adopted it oblast wise as regional.) Crimea set it for October 10th I think as the discussion in oblast.

                  Russian spreads like wildfires in dry Ukrainian forest
                  Better map with easier keys.

                  My curiosity in this whole language battle thus far is that I expect it to culminate towards the elections in bending further than is expected. Ergo I think they will make it regional in central regions once elections are upcoming simply for the sake of sticking it to the nationalists in the same way they had when they forced Ukranization of Television vis a vis % of time on air and other areas as they pushed it through in the south-eastern areas. It is one of those things when first people went too far one way and then people go too far the other way. We shall see.

                  It doesn't even matter at this point whom wins the elections because the forces will be staggered and undoing the law will be impossible without political ramifications that would detonate the social sphere. I expect the law to be amended to make it harder to make the regional language though after to something like 30% or so.
                  Attached Files
                  Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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                  • #24
                    Nikolayev oblast made Russian regional.

                    City of Berehove near Uzhgorod (Zakarpatia oblast) adopted Hungarian as a local language.
                    Hungarian declared regional language in western Ukrainian town of Berehove
                    (Both cities and Oblasts can adopt a regional language)




                    The town council of Berehove in Zakarpattia region decided at its Friday meeting to grant the Hungarian language a regional status in the city, according to the regional UA-Reporter.com online edition.

                    A total of 19 out of 34 members of the town council voted for a resolution on the implementation of certain provisions of the law on the principles of the state language policy in Berehove, which was tabled by Mayor Istvan Gajdos.

                    According to the website, Berehove Mayor Gajdos is chairman of the Democratic Party of Hungarians of Ukraine and is 74th on the election list of the Regions Party in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

                    Berehove is a town in Zakarpattia region in western Ukraine, near the border with Hungary. A total of 12,800 residents (48% of the town's population) are ethnic Hungarians. Most locals can speak Hungarian.

                    All inscriptions on government offices in the town are in Ukrainian and Hungarian. There are Hungarian schools in Berehove, and some local periodicals are published in Hungarian.
                    Last edited by cyppok; 13 Sep 12,, 18:07.
                    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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                    • #25
                      Ukraine Elections 2012 in about two weeks October 28th...

                      Western Ukraine ready to back all shades of political opposition


                      If UDAR gets in it will be interesting, they have no connotations of either nationalism from the west or clanism from the east. If they go after economic issues and press forward on those there might actually be an improvement in economic aspects here or there. Especially if they go pro-business (small and medium instead of large oligarchic which both Batkyvchina and Regions have done)

                      Svoboda is extreme western nationalists, if they get in which is unlikely but possible I don't really know how it would effect things.

                      More parties would be good in my view, more opinions, more backed constituents instead of political dominance of few constituents, more voices and thoughts.
                      Attached Files
                      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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