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Thread: The Next Afghan War

  1. #16
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Dude,by the Soviet standards it may have been peaceful.Or it may have been peaceful for the Soviets.
    Those who know don't speak
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  2. #17
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    Civil war depends on how the ISI directs the Taliban. Keep the Pak Army hopping in Balochistan and Afghanistan will have peace and will grow economically.
    Balistan is another lovely area itching for a fight with the PA.

    Cheers!...on the rocks!!

  3. #18
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Dude,by the Soviet standards it may have been peaceful.Or it may have been peaceful for the Soviets.
    Or it may have been more peaceful then before
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

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  4. #19
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Dude,by the Soviet standards it may have been peaceful.Or it may have been peaceful for the Soviets.
    No, by Afghan standards.

    That comment was made by someone living in Afghanistan at the time and who still lives there today.

    If the aid continues to flow and the mining contracts bring in revenue then any war is going to be pushed back for later, is the point.

    That is a valid counter to these 'how the world is going to hell in a handbasket' type predictions .
    Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Jul 12, at 07:42.

  5. #20
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    DE,A-stan's exports of whatever nature did not prevent war in the past,although they did shaped the conflict.Where are those mines?Why the Hazara's share is bigger than that of the Pashtuns?Why are the apostates putting money before Allah?There will be mining,but there will be also war.
    The chinese in Africa made some friends among the bosses and a good share of foes among those they displaced economically.I'm mightily curious how the Afghans will see them in a few years.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  6. #21
    Contributor ambidex's Avatar
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    By that logic (DE quoted) the peace will prevail up 2017 for sure.

    $16 bn civilian aid to Afghanistan from 2014-2017 | NDTV.com

    Wasn't Afghanistan been provide the aid after when Russian left ?

    I was watching a video of a Pakistani (self appointed) defence analyst that the Russian invasion was fought with almost equal amount aid what USA provided by Arab countries. So what happened next, even the Afghan refugees were not rehabilitated back from Pakistan. They were left high and dry; the money theory looks not flawed to me.

  7. #22
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    DE,A-stan's exports of whatever nature did not prevent war in the past,although they did shaped the conflict.Where are those mines?Why the Hazara's share is bigger than that of the Pashtuns?Why are the apostates putting money before Allah?There will be mining,but there will be also war.
    Correct me if i'm wrong but I get the impression that people are using the experience after the Soviets to predict what will happen in the future. History repeating itself so to speak.

    To that i ask for what did the Americans spend a decade in the wilderness along with billions only to have it revert back to square one soon after they leave. No, i think they will ensure that outcome is less likely.

    The level of mineral contracts this time is much larger than last time.

    Why the Hazara is larger, i don' know...
    - Is that the mineral rich part of the country.
    - Is that place relatively more peaceful than the pashtun areas and more conducive to business.
    - Are the Hazara more business savvy than the Pashtun.

    Where is the question of Allah after the Americans leave ? Its always been against foreign domination..

    For now I stick with insurgency rather than war.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    The chinese in Africa made some friends among the bosses and a good share of foes among those they displaced economically.I'm mightily curious how the Afghans will see them in a few years.
    There are other players in the game besides the Chinese. The areas that promote peace will prosper faster than those without. The only way to keep the peace is to have money flow.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Jul 12, at 14:46.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    S2,
    considering what the TTP has done against india, somehow i have my doubts that india will support an afghanistan trying to use the TTP as a proxy.
    I would agree to this thought. The rationale of TTP is that they are fighting PA because it supports US. Once US leaves, there is no reason for TTP to fight PA. It is a simple tribal warfare.

    PA can easily convince TTP to stop attacks, the way they did in 2008 after Mumbai attacks.A PA General openly called TTP patriots and convinced Baitullah Mehusd with side with PA.

    TTP is no enemy of Pakistan.

    We also need to keep in mind that when we refer to "Afghan government", we probably mean non-Pashtuns. Pashtuns are never going to support Baluchs. PA has made sure of that in Baluchistan.
    Pashtuns are PA's cannon fodder. They are used in Karachi, Baluchistan, Northern Regions against the Shias.

    PA needs to keep the Pashtuns diverted towards Afghanistan to prevent Pashtun nationalism knocking off almost 30% of Pakistan.
    Last edited by n21; 12 Jul 12, at 21:13.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by lemontree View Post
    Civil war depends on how the ISI directs the Taliban. Keep the Pak Army hopping in Balochistan and Afghanistan will have peace and will grow economically.
    Balistan is another lovely area itching for a fight with the PA.
    I would suggest support to Ugihirs in Pakistan to fight the Chinese. Nothing like "Pakistan needs to do more" from the "all weather friend" the Chinese after the Americans leave. Quite easy. Some money, some propaganda CD/DVD and pay some mullahs in Pakistan to "highlight Chinese atrocities".

  10. #25
    Liberté, Unité, Egalité Senior Contributor Tronic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by n21 View Post
    PA can easily convince TTP to stop attacks, the way they did in 2008 after Mumbai attacks.A PA General openly called TTP patriots and convinced Baitullah Mehusd with side with PA.
    lol, Clearly.
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  11. #26

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    n21 Reply

    "...The rationale of TTP is that they are fighting PA because it supports US. Once US leaves, there is no reason for TTP to fight PA. It is a simple tribal warfare."

    Wrong. Their discontent runs much deeper although those issues appear to have eluded you...again. You may as well also put forth the rationale that the afghan taliban will have no reason to continue fighting after the Americans have left.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
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  12. #27

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    Mihais Reply

    "Dude,by the Soviet standards it may have been peaceful..."

    Dude? DUDE?

    I'm "The Dude" here-

    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

  13. #28
    A Self Important Senior Contributor troung's Avatar
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    No, by Afghan standards. That comment was made by someone living in Afghanistan at the time and who still lives there today.
    He is clearly mistaken as years of very bloody fighting followed the period between the Soviet pull out and the end of the DRA. The DRA fell because they ran out of money but they were hard pressed during the intervening years and were forced to fight a series of meat grinders to keep power over southern cities.

    His rosy/hazy memories don't remove the cold hard facts.

    Last edited by troung; 13 Jul 12, at 02:55.
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  14. #29
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Soviets were sending aid to DRA, but at the same time many countries including USA were sending aid to the Mujahideens.

    Now, who is gonna send assets to the Talibans? Pakistan,KSA?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  15. #30
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S2 View Post
    "Dude,by the Soviet standards it may have been peaceful..."

    Dude? DUDE?

    I'm "The Dude" here-

    Damn straight. You abide.



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