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  • #31
    Originally posted by Hitman817 View Post
    They might, since they support the Assadregime and thus they are also responsible for their crimes. In other words, they made their bed...
    His policies were never bad towards them. Are they taking part in the violence?
    How this new regime will be better if they oppress the minorities?


    Yes, there is a new invention called plane, it can fly through air.....
    You implied there is no way for Iran to send help to Syria, I just pointed out it was done through the years.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Doktor View Post
      His policies were never bad towards them. Are they taking part in the violence?
      How this new regime will be better if they oppress the minorities?
      It will be better for Turkey, US, Israel and the Arabs.

      You implied there is no way for Iran to send help to Syria, I just pointed out it was done through the years.
      Yes Iran can send help via Airplane, as long as the Assadregime controls airfields but Cypok postulates that the Alewites concentrate in the Montain areas, where they are the majority. They wont control any airfields and even if they did, to support someone vie planes is much more expensive than via land or water ways Tukey and its allies are in a much better position, are much richer, much more advanced and they are supporting the majority.

      Believe me there is no way the Assadregime will survive this.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Hitman817 View Post
        It will be better for Turkey, US, Israel and the Arabs.
        Like Egypt?

        Yes Iran can send help via Airplane, as long as the Assadregime controls airfields but Cypok postulates that the Alewites concentrate in the Montain areas, where they are the majority. They wont control any airfields and even if they did, to support someone vie planes is much more expensive than via land or water ways Tukey and its allies are in a much better position, are much richer, much more advanced and they are supporting the majority.

        Believe me there is no way the Assadregime will survive this.
        Che sarà, sarà. Those who will survive will tell.
        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by Hitman817 View Post
          It will be better for Turkey, US, Israel and the Arabs.

          Do you mean "better for us, as in we get a proxy"? Because I can't actually see how another failed state will be better...
          Also, in the meantime, you think thats it's safer for certain sirian citizens to leave or be subjected to (posible) ethnic cleansing if the rebelion succedes.


          Originally posted by Hitman817 View Post
          Yes Iran can send help via Airplane, as long as the Assadregime controls airfields but Cypok postulates that the Alewites concentrate in the Montain areas, where they are the majority. They wont control any airfields and even if they did, to support someone vie planes is much more expensive than via land or water ways Tukey and its allies are in a much better position, are much richer, much more advanced and they are supporting the majority.

          Believe me there is no way the Assadregime will survive this.
          Good for you..and yet, after 17 months, with the majority in uprising, all the suport you mentioned, no regime change in site.
          Guess time will tell..

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          • #35
            The Alawites control the coast and sea access. Iran can and does send ships with supplies just like Russia. Lebanon borders Syria with shiites there that can traffic aid if needed. It can be sent through Iraq etc...

            Manipulating numbers that are not there does not prove your point.
            Religious make up of the country is 74% sunni with Kurds counted in. Ergo around 62% sunni arab if you take them out. About 300k-500k Kurds are non-citizens according to Human Rights Watch and in 1962 120k lost citizenship (and grew to those 300-500k).
            Yes they are a small minority but they are in an area that has contiguous border with Iraqi Kurdistan which has about 5-7 million people, oil revenues, and some military strength.


            Al-Qaeda tries to carve out a war for itself in Syria
            By Ruth Sherlock, Idlib Province, 12 Jul 2012, Telegraph

            Al-Qaeda has infiltrated into Syria and is working to establish footholds in the war-torn northern provinces.

            Whilst the militant Islamic organisation’s influence remains small, home-grown jihadist groups that are linked with, or sympathetic to the ideals of movement are growing.
            (external view)

            Syria: Religious extremism divides Free Syrian Army | GlobalPost
            Syria: A revolution divided
            Syria's revolutionaries are getting worried that the Free Syrian Army is increasingly controlled by sectarian and religious radicals.

            IDLIB DISTRICT, Syria — Like thousands of his fellow students, Diojen joined the revolution to bring freedom, democracy and dignity to the Syrian people.

            But more and more these days, he said, he is being asked to bring Islam too.

            Diojen said he has become disillusioned by the changing course of the revolution, which he says is being co-opted by religious and sectarian extremists within the Free Syrian Army. These extremists, while still the minority, are hoping for an Islamic government when all is said and done, Diojen said.

            “If the revolution is for a new dictatorship, what are we dying for?” he asked, adding that his greatest fear is not for himself but for Syria's diverse minority population. “The real revolution will start when this one ends.”
            Fighters like Nader Ajini, who calls himself a “moderate Muslim,” say they worry that international support is flowing directly to the more extreme, violent elements of the Free Syrian Army. Although religious extremists are a minority, Ajini said they receive the vast majority of funding and weapons and the pressure is mounting on moderates to join them.

            “Knowing that we have nothing to fight with, a religious militant leader offered me a Kalashnikov with magazines, immunities and money to join their Islamic group,” Ajini said. “I refused his offer because I just want to fight the regime to get freedom and democracy for my people. Many people are now exposed to this kind of blackmailing.”
            (Internal View)

            Backing is mainly flowing to fundamentalists it seems. It would be hard to fight a regime with the same secular base that underpins its power. So there is an effort to rile up the populous a bit and the only way that happens if you go out on the political spectrum to the extremes.

            Radicalization works, the problem is that an all out civil war will create an environment where minorities where they dominate will effectively separate and the fracture will occur. For now this is still somewhat contained.
            Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Doktor View Post
              Like Egypt?
              In Egypt only Mubarak was removed, not the regime (Millitary hardcore secularists), the Powerstrugle is still ongoing. If they are removed, Egypt will get as successfull as Turkey. Egypt is the perfect example, not only Assad needs to go but the whole regime.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Dante View Post
                Do you mean "better for us, as in we get a proxy"? Because I can't actually see how another failed state will be better...
                Not only for us, it will also be better for the majority of Syrians and democracy, you would never get a democratic regime there if you leave the minority Alewite Regime in power, because they know, that they would never win in a fair election so they have to suppress the majority for ever.

                Also, in the meantime, you think thats it's safer for certain sirian citizens to leave or be subjected to (posible) ethnic cleansing if the rebelion succedes.
                It depends on how the minorities now behave, if there is too much bad blood i.e. if they continue with massacering the Sunnies, they shouldn't expect mercy, why should they.



                Good for you..and yet, after 17 months, with the majority in uprising, all the suport you mentioned, no regime change in site.
                Guess time will tell...
                How long did the American civil war last? give it time.
                Last edited by Hitman817; 15 Jul 12,, 20:25.

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                  The Alawites control the coast and sea access. Iran can and does send ships with supplies just like Russia. Lebanon borders Syria with shiites there that can traffic aid if needed. It can be sent through Iraq etc...
                  The cost regions would be blocked by the Sunnies, the Ships and subs for that, they will get from Turkey or US, the money from the Arabs.

                  Manipulating numbers that are not there does not prove your point.
                  You your self have no clue about the nummbers, I gave you a reliable source, yet you keep ignoring it, so there is no point in this dispute, belive what you will. It wont change the reality, which is not in favour of Assad or Russia. ; )

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    The dissolving of the Assadregime seems to have reached even the Alewite core....

                    Assad receives last warning to stop moving his WMD: Top generals defect
                    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 15, 2012, 10:36 PM (GMT+02:00)

                    Several high-placed generals bolted Bashar Assad’s inner circle Sunday, July 17, including such key figures as two security services chiefs who were operations commanders of the Alawite Shabiha militia plus the former head of Syria’s chemical and biological administration who took six other generals with him. They all fled to Turkey and defected. A fourth senior general from another security service was assassinated in Aleppo. This is reported exclusively by debkafile’s military sources.

                    The loss of the generals orchestrating the pro-Assad paramilitary Shabiha’s savage crackdown on the opposition has seriously weakened Assad’s protective circle of trusties and reduced his military and security options.
                    Also today, the Syrian ruler was given a “last warning” through intelligence channels in the West to leave the warheads and shells loaded with mustard gas, sarin and cyanide where they are. If he dared move them out of the northern and central locations where he deployed them last week, they would be destroyed from the air.
                    debkafile names the defecting Shabiha commanders as: Gen. Mohamed Tatouh, Deputy chief of Syrian political intelligence, and Gen. Mohamed Kodissia, deputy chief of the “Palestinian” Intelligence agency (a misnomer: it has nothing to do with Palestinians).

                    The murdered general, Ali Khallouf, was ambushed by rebels in Aleppo.
                    Maj. Gen. Adnan Nawras Salou, a Sunnite, who headed the chemical warfare authority until 2008, will no doubt have important intelligence to offer the West about the Assad regime’s current activities and plans for his WMD.

                    debkafile points to three singular features of the latest wave of defections:
                    1. They all managed to spirit their families out of Syria well before they absconded themselves, an operation that must have required weeks of careful and secret preparation. The failure of Assad’s many-tentacled, clandestine agencies to discover what was up and foil the walkouts, attests to serious lapses in their notorious efficiency.

                    2. All the defectors served in Damascus at the regime’s nerve center for suppressing the revolt.
                    3. They all made tracks for Beirut before making their way to Turkey. Neverthetheless, the extensive spy networks run by Iran and Hizballah in the Lebanese capital failed to pick up on the city’s use as a way station for Syrian defectors in flight to Turkey.

                    4. Despite their active roles in crushing the civil uprising in Syria, those generals clearly hoped to escape the consequences of their actions and becoming liable for prosecution. The Red Cross Committee in Geneva, the first international organization to call the violence in Syria a full-blown civil war, made it clear Sunday, July 15, that international humanitarian law applied henceforth throughout the country and provided a basis for war crimes prosecution, especially if civilians were attacked.
                    Last edited by Hitman817; 15 Jul 12,, 21:58.

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                    • #40
                      This thread doesn't belong here now. What might have once been sheer speculation is now a far too realistic possibility. I propose it be moved in the interest of general housekeeping.
                      "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                      "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by S2 View Post
                        This thread doesn't belong here now. What might have once been sheer speculation is now a far too realistic possibility. I propose it be moved in the interest of general housekeeping.
                        Agree.

                        Also today, the Syrian ruler was given a “last warning” through intelligence channels in the West to leave the warheads and shells loaded with mustard gas, sarin and cyanide where they are. If he dared move them out of the northern and central locations where he deployed them last week, they would be destroyed from the air.
                        debkafile names the defecting Shabiha commanders as: Gen. Mohamed Tatouh, Deputy chief of Syrian political intelligence, and Gen. Mohamed Kodissia, deputy chief of the “Palestinian” Intelligence agency (a misnomer: it has nothing to do with Palestinians).

                        The murdered general, Ali Khallouf, was ambushed by rebels in Aleppo.
                        Maj. Gen. Adnan Nawras Salou, a Sunnite, who headed the chemical warfare authority until 2008, will no doubt have important intelligence to offer the West about the Assad regime’s current activities and plans for his WMD.
                        Unless the UN's fantasy world actually coincides with reality and we get a managed transition air strikes against the WMD would have to be a near certainty. Those of Gaddafi's weapons that survived and made their way to other conflicts demonstrate Syria's extensive stockpiles have to be destroyed unless governments are happy for sarin or mustard gas turning up in subway systems or being used to wipe out ethnic groups belonging to the 'wrong' Muslim sect.

                        Also I'd love to be in on the debrief of Maj. Gen. Adnan Nawras Salou, especially relating to Syria's relationships with the Hussein regime and Iran.
                        In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                        Leibniz

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                        • #42
                          Shabitha commanders will become the secessionists for the Alawites since they will effectively control their local area patchwork. Enforcement and interaction in between them will take hold and they will vie for power more directly. If Ouster occurs they will become real warlords and a dominance hierarchy will form. Most of them will want to be kings of the realm or at least sovereign thus the fracture will become very real.

                          Kurds control the top right sector in a similar manner, but in a way more organized.

                          Like I said Syria fracturing more and more likely. If an Alawite State is proclaimed and defended by remnants of the officer core and some sort of border is enforced. Iran, Russia, China can recognize it and just like Kosovo being allowed self determination in the West , this time it will be from the East.
                          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by S2 View Post
                            This thread doesn't belong here now. What might have once been sheer speculation is now a far too realistic possibility. I propose it be moved in the interest of general housekeeping.
                            Where do you want it to go? One problem is that the first part is faithful to the what-if line. I agree it has morphed into a current events thread. We can move a batch of posts.

                            How do others feel about this?
                            To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                            • #44
                              Worth taking a look at this map http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/wo...ster=cb0000002 then consider where the Alawites live (first map in this thread).

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                              • #45
                                http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/mid...-politics.html
                                If the gov't overplays its' hand and the foreign pressure is actually strong enough the regime could destabilize and you get something similar to a land grab "Iraq 2" scenario except it would be to a degree far worse and more destabilizing longer term.
                                from last september

                                I didnt really expect minorities other than Kurds to secede from Syria in that thread I think. Now I do though.
                                The backhand turn to support Kurds once Turkey turned on Syria was common sense.

                                Would be nice to have 3-4 new countries in Mid - East, more peaceful perhaps.
                                Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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