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  • #16
    Syria is not the problem. Ideally a less pro Iranian Government there would be nice but it can rumble on and it ties down one Iranian ally. In two years Iran will have a viable bomb - that is the problem. The Gulf Arab/Iran contest is using both Assad and the rebels as a prelude to an inevitable decision that must be made.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by snapper View Post
      Syria is not the problem. Ideally a less pro Iranian Government there would be nice but it can rumble on and it ties down one Iranian ally. In two years Iran will have a viable bomb - that is the problem. The Gulf Arab/Iran contest is using both Assad and the rebels as a prelude to an inevitable decision that must be made.
      The only way to change the dynamic is to launch a huge play for the region that simply forces Iran to act. From Afghanistan through Mediteranian the mix of religions and ethnicities is in play. Notice the dynamic change in Iraq with religious and ethnic push by the regions to homogeniety by violence or other means.

      I really do think that if Syrian Arab Sunnis go the revival route and integrate with the Iraqi Arab Sunnis their ideology and expectations will align to create a "Greater Syria" which will be more or less opposed by Iran. All of this would be far better underlined if the Area in a sense becomes landlocked vis a vis Alawite secession.

      Iran is trying to balance itself on the end of cash flow problems vis a vis oil for things and then for gold and other aspects to skirt not being allowed to clear payments through SWIFT interchange, it also has some problems with post drought yields and grain dependence on Russia/Kazakhstan since other suppliers are more or less self-embargoing themselves from supplying it.

      In two years US will pull out of Afghanistan and the suction effect may push Iran and Pakistan into establishing competing influences within it and a semi-simmering border war fed by Iran on one side and waged by Pakistan on the other with destabilizing tribal areas. On the other side Iran is feeding the shiite arabs in Iraq in a similar fashion and yet it has to finance both those aspects with non-clearing payments ergo gold or some other fashion since currency markets are kind of closed.

      Iran has youth dissent problems but the geopolitical and fiscal restraints are also there. Food and fiscal flows won't really be impacted by anything that happens right now. The biggest change that could occur is Iran going into another country. It is so extremely unlikely due to them being able to play subversion wars with militants and shadow support of groups either of their own making or available on the ground at a price only paramount core interests would force them to act.

      Sunni revival in the region could but they have good proxy in Shiites in Iraq etc... The biggest problem that could occur is actual lack of confrontation. Ergo all those Sunnis split and form a seperate state defacto and the Shiites would be ok with it. Then we have a shift to ethnic nationalism from religious and enemies of yesterday become friends of today it would turn inside out the whole dynamic of the region. Pan-Arab nationalism pushing out Iran and forcing it to defend its polyethnic make-up internally from funded secessionist movements on all sides. Ergo Azeri secessionism in north Arab in south. Its possible very unlikely though.
      Iran: To Protest Rising Prices, Iranians Boycotting Grocery Stores
      The grass-roots campaign, which ran from Saturday through Monday, wasn't affiliated with any opposition group. Dozens of Iranians said in interviews and on social-networking sites and blogs that they had participated in the boycott, and a number of bakeries and grocery stores across Tehran, the capital, reported declines in milk and bread sales of as much as 90%.

      Iran's economy has been deteriorating amid domestic mismanagement, corruption and international sanctions that have made it difficult for manufacturers to import raw material and to conduct banking transactions. A European Union embargo on Iranian oil is set to start July 1.

      Prices of basic goods rise almost daily. Independent economists estimate annual inflation is hovering between 50% and 60%. In the past two weeks, the price of bread has increased 33%, chicken 28.5% and milk prices are climbing daily, according to Iranian newspapers and semiofficial news websites.
      Last edited by cyppok; 13 Jul 12,, 22:59.
      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by cyppok View Post
        Anything else I am not thinking about is welcome.
        Take a look at this picture.



        Its an absolute mess.

        Originally posted by cyppok View Post
        Please contribute how else this could come about and what else could go wrong...

        and Syria fractures loosing sea access and going into full scale civil war. There is some ethnic push from one area to another similar to Turkey/Greece post 1900s.

        Intervention occurs by Turkey into Northern Areas and SHTF, with Kurds in Al-Hasakah Governorate declaring a state as well after being armed by Alawites prior to the fracture. Post fracture they would attempt to join with Iraqi Kurdistan which sends reinforcements to enforce the new border.
        Who is interested in such an outcome ? nobody i think

        Who wants a festering sore of instability that will cause trouble to its neighbours.

        Originally posted by cyppok View Post
        Think about it this way the country goes into an uprising spiral the army is still holding up and the Alawites push for an exit plan. Ergo complete fracture and independence of the Alawite state as it was under the French.
        How about we give Assad an out and the country elects a new leader and stays intact.

        I don't know whether Assad will accept such a deal.
        Attached Files

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        • #19
          only Sovereignty can give Assad an out, ergo if he stays Sovereign or within a Sovereign country.

          If Alawite State becomes independent its also an out... but it would be for most Alawites that do not want to go through the power struggle and loss post transition. Most of them realize this would be the optimal out scenario and control of ports and sea access with a mountain border really is enforceable as long as there is recognition and enforcement of it at lest initially.

          Nobody is interested in the outcome of fracture but everyone is doing their best that it becomes the only outcome.

          The picture is not a mess but what actually was on the ground during French mandate within Syria.
          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by cyppok View Post
            only Sovereignty can give Assad an out, ergo if he stays Sovereign or within a Sovereign country.
            Was thinking more on the lines of an exile out of Syria to another country.

            Originally posted by cyppok View Post
            If Alawite State becomes independent its also an out... but it would be for most Alawites that do not want to go through the power struggle and loss post transition. Most of them realize this would be the optimal out scenario and control of ports and sea access with a mountain border really is enforceable as long as there is recognition and enforcement of it at lest initially.
            This depends on how threatened they feel.

            Originally posted by cyppok View Post
            Nobody is interested in the outcome of fracture but everyone is doing their best that it becomes the only outcome.
            Which direction are the various forces moving here ?

            In a direction that tears Syria apart or in a way they cancel out others.

            There's lot of fingers in this pie which act in ways to preserve their influence. Doesn't that require Syria be whole. How will those numerous interests be served with the disintegration of Syria.

            Originally posted by cyppok View Post
            The picture is not a mess but what actually was on the ground during French mandate within Syria.
            That's a sectarian makeup, not an ethnic one. The only people that might want to break away are the Kurds.

            I think reverting back to the old setup is unlikely. Its the most expensive option for everybody concerned.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Double Edge View Post

              I think reverting back to the old setup is unlikely. Its the most expensive option for everybody concerned.
              Going independent is not the most expensive option, going extinct is or being thrown into exile not on your own terms, for a population of society. You think those Alawites near Homs and Hama will survive a bitter sectarian struggle after they loose power?

              Kurds are essentially being given a de-facto will to defend their area from other parties. Shabithas in Alawite areas are doing the same on a shadow level (no flags yet).
              Alawite fortress and Sunni wasteland in Syria
              The rebellious districts that once belonged to Sunni Muslims are ghost towns. Only about three of the 16 Sunni districts have not been pommelled by military assaults.
              Many Alawites say they feel they have no choice but to back Assad, fearing retaliatory slaughter for religious affiliation with the president as the revolt becomes increasingly sectarian.

              “The Sunnis have been oppressed,” said one Alawite man. “But Alawites will be the victims.”

              Confusion About Syria

              Iran would be fine pushing Syria to break up because they at least control something but happy with status quo.
              Turkey would be fine trying to push it to the brink because they want regime change with favorable power shift, with fair disregard what happens to social stratification post outcome, we don't hear the news but it happens.
              US, and Europe are same thought of mind as Turkey, power projection and enforcement via favorable government is more important than social outcomes afterwards the CNNs of the world will move on elsewhere and we will get less news stories on what happens on the ground, which may be worse than it is now.
              Russia wants things as they are or an orderly transition without social unrest which they will probably not get.

              Sunnis on the ground want representation and power shift, once this occurs they will try to dominate every area where they were lacking and it will be a giant free for all with similar repression as before to establish dominance.
              Alawites want status quo but are preparing for long term sectarian violence if you notice by militarizing themselves. If there was large scale loss of control in Syria which there isn't now the people in charge might think of separation and independence since they would have enforcement due to militarization of people on the ground. In some ways them having armed groups under their umbrella and a ready populous beats numerical advantages of Sunnis for now and into a possible break-up since they could enforce a border somewhere at least.
              Everyone that can is leaving the area because they know it will get worse before it gets better.
              Attached Files
              Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                only Sovereignty can give Assad an out, ergo if he stays Sovereign or within a Sovereign country.

                If Alawite State becomes independent its also an out... but it would be for most Alawites that do not want to go through the power struggle and loss post transition. Most of them realize this would be the optimal out scenario and control of ports and sea access with a mountain border really is enforceable as long as there is recognition and enforcement of it at lest initially.

                Nobody is interested in the outcome of fracture but everyone is doing their best that it becomes the only outcome.

                The picture is not a mess but what actually was on the ground during French mandate within Syria.
                Your logic is flawed, the sunnies make up 80% of Syrias population, they would never accept a secession of the Alawites or any other minority. There is a civil war ongoing there and we will support the sunnies till they win.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Hitman817 View Post
                  Your logic is flawed, the sunnies make up 80% of Syrias population, they would never accept a secession of the Alawites or any other minority. There is a civil war ongoing there and we will support the sunnies till they win.
                  We don't need to support anyone they can kill themselves without our support of either side.
                  The sunnis are lead mostly by religious jihadis and compared to those Assad isn't that bad as a socialistic minority dictator (at least from the outside perspective there is tolerance for minority groups which won't happen after religious sunnis take hold, since those are the ones being funded).


                  Sunnis make up about 65% or even less of Syria not 80%...

                  Kurds about 10% whom are likely Sunni will not support them are are de-facto autonimous with state support. Christians and Druze are around 10% and alawites are around 12%.
                  Furthermore if a minority is compactly living in an area like the Alawites are with geographic and military control they can go independent. You think Syria will be in a position to re-impose its' will if those mountain borders are enforced? (rhetorical question)

                  Armenians it seems are leaving the country according to Landis' blog, and the religious proliferation of the conflict is increasing dramatically.
                  Syria Comment

                  Al-Qaeda tries to carve out a war for itself in Syria
                  By Ruth Sherlock, Idlib Province, 12 Jul 2012, Telegraph

                  Al-Qaeda has infiltrated into Syria and is working to establish footholds in the war-torn northern provinces.

                  Whilst the militant Islamic organisation’s influence remains small, home-grown jihadist groups that are linked with, or sympathetic to the ideals of movement are growing.
                  Syrian Armenians Starting To Take Refuge In Armenia
                  Jamestown Inst – July 11, 2012 — Volume 9, Issue 131

                  With fighting continuing to escalate in Syria and no end to the bloodshed on the horizon, a growing number of the country’s ethnic Armenians are looking to take refuge in Armenia. Hundreds of them are believed to have already moved to their ancestral homeland, while thousands of others have applied for Armenian citizenship in apparent preparation for such relocation. The authorities in Yerevan are facing growing calls from domestic opposition and public figures to encourage and assist in that influx.
                  Muslim brotherhood in Syria and the religious lean of insurgency is not a good sign. Another interesting aspect is that the army is actually winning those lopsided events with insurgents and pushing them into siege mentality.

                  I get a feeling that the Turkish, Saudi, Qatari, and other support for arming the rebels is growing, just like the arms support from Russia to Kurds and Syria is also growing. Iran is probably attempting to support Syria at least monetarily to a degree and provide some assistance otherwise.

                  UN observers say Syria attack targeted rebels - Middle East - Al Jazeera English
                  UN observers say Syria attack targeted rebels
                  Monitors say Thursday's assault on the village of Tremseh appeared targeted at army defectors and activists.
                  An attack earlier this week on a western Syrian village that the opposition has described as a "massacre" mainly targeted army defectors and anti-government activists, according to United Nations observers who visited the scene.
                  Syria: Religious extremism divides Free Syrian Army | GlobalPost

                  Syria: A revolution divided

                  Syria's revolutionaries are getting worried that the Free Syrian Army is increasingly controlled by sectarian and religious radicals.
                  IDLIB DISTRICT, Syria — Like thousands of his fellow students, Diojen joined the revolution to bring freedom, democracy and dignity to the Syrian people.

                  But more and more these days, he said, he is being asked to bring Islam too.

                  Diojen said he has become disillusioned by the changing course of the revolution, which he says is being co-opted by religious and sectarian extremists within the Free Syrian Army. These extremists, while still the minority, are hoping for an Islamic government when all is said and done, Diojen said.
                  Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                    We don't need to support anyone they can kill themselves without our support of either side.
                    The sunnis are lead mostly by religious jihadis and compared to those Assad isn't that bad as a socialistic minority dictator (at least from the outside perspective there is tolerance for minority groups which won't happen after religious sunnis take hold, since those are the ones being funded).
                    We don't need to but we will do it anyway, because it is in our interest. And your claim, that the Sunnies are lead by Jihadists is just nonsense, the Sunni opposition is build up by Turkey as well es the US and I'm sure they know whom to support.

                    Sunnis make up about 65% or even less of Syria not 80%...

                    Kurds about 10% whom are likely Sunni will not support them are are de-facto autonimous with state support. Christians and Druze are around 10% and alawites are around 12%.
                    Stay with the facts. Kurds cant make up 10% of Syrias population if there are only about 10% Ethnic non-Arabs such as Armenians, Druze and Kurds. Armenians are getting out and Kurds are so few they wont matter... The only real problem is the Alawite minority.

                    Syria:

                    Population: 22,530,746 (July 2012 est.)

                    Ethnic groups: 90.3% Arabs, 9.7 Kurds, Armenians and others

                    Religions: Sunni Muslim (Islam - official) 74%, other Muslim (includes Alawite, Druze) 16%, Christian (various denominations) 10%, Jewish (tiny communities in Damascus, Al Qamishli, and Aleppo)

                    Source: CIA Factbook
                    Furthermore if a minority is compactly living in an area like the Alawites are with geographic and military control they can go independent.
                    That's just more crap, Alawites share no border with any country that supports them (Iran, Russia), they are isolated, and so few compared to the Sunnis they will cumble soner or later. And no country not even Russia or Iran would recognize an Alewite state officialy

                    You think Syria will be in a position to re-impose its' will if those mountain borders are enforced? (rhetorical question)
                    It is just basic math, the sunnis will take controll all of Syria, we will support them till they do.

                    Armenians it seems are leaving the country according to Landis' blog, and the religious proliferation of the conflict is increasing dramatically.
                    good for them.



                    Muslim brotherhood in Syria and the religious lean of insurgency is not a good sign. Another interesting aspect is that the army is actually winning those lopsided events with insurgents and pushing them into siege mentality.
                    Just more wishfull thinking on your part, you Greeks seem to do that alot. ; )

                    I get a feeling that the Turkish, Saudi, Qatari, and other support for arming the rebels is growing, just like the arms support from Russia to Kurds and Syria is also growing.
                    At some point Russia will stop its support for Assad, this will happen if they think the Assadregime is losing and from that point they will start negotiations with the Opposition, oh wait a minite they had their first meeting last week. ; )

                    Iran is probably attempting to support Syria at least monetarily to a degree and provide some assistance otherwise.
                    Iran itself is in deep trouble... and has no land connection to Syria.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Hitman817 View Post
                      good for them.
                      Why?

                      Just more wishfull thinking on your part, you Greeks seem to do that alot. ; )
                      I thought he is Expat Russian, hence his signature.

                      Iran itself is in deep trouble... and has no land connection to Syria.
                      No land border never stopped them supporting Hezbollah. And that's across two land borders instead of one.
                      Last edited by Doktor; 15 Jul 12,, 11:23.
                      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        The quote and link I provided support my case that most of the movement is being hijacked by jihadis in Syria, the secular forces are essentially those of the government in charge now. You provided nothing to support your case.

                        Like I said Sunni Arabs are about 60+-5% of population, Sunni Kurds support the regime because they have been given de-facto autonomy its' in the link I provided on this thread, and in another link they walked out on meetings in Turkey with opposition because those did not promise to honor that autonomy if they reached power.

                        Russia and Iran have no reason to stop support until the situation shows they regime or secular elements lost total control and no point in helping anymore. They tried negotiating with opposition, it failed. One of the first things in negotiations is that you are able to give as well as take, unfortunately for the opposition they do not want to give any assurances or promises but want extractions of those themselves. In life you cannot get something you do not pay for. Nor do the US, Turkey, Qatar or anyone else. Support will gradually continue until there is a clear winner or until intervention to tip the scales.

                        I am not Greek... notice my signature.

                        You are distorting the percentages of the factbook the 74% includes Sunni Kurds which are about 12-14%... which makes it around 62-60 Sunni Arab it is likely that if Christians leave their proportion will go up though. See the you confused the Religious: tag with automatically dividing by ethnicity... If you want you could take that 74%-9.7%(Kurds)=64.3% ... You also have to remember that a lot of Kurds weren't counted because they were non-citizens and were only re-granted their citizenship a year or so ago... They weren't counted lowering the amount of Kurds on paper(statistics wise) by 1/3rd to 1/4th of whats on the ground.
                        Human Rights Watch, which notes that the Kurds are the largest non-Arab ethnic minority in Syria, estimated the Kurdish population to be 1.7 million, about 10 percent of Syria's population.
                        Iran has no land connection to Lebanon either but apparently they support and arm Hazbolah there, I am sure the Shiites in Iraq will help them to transit supply into Syria...
                        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_SyriaWiki doesn't take into account the shift in citizenship a year ago I presume.

                        Approximately 60-65% Sunni Arab Majority in Syria perhaps a little more perhaps not.

                        The stupidity of sectarian civil wars is that the Arabs in Syria whom are Christian are literally ethnic kin of those Sunni Arabs they are the same people genetically essentially. No language or ethnic barriers, same with Alawites...
                        Last edited by cyppok; 15 Jul 12,, 11:41.
                        Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                          Why?
                          Much safer.

                          I thought he is Expat Russian, hence his signature.
                          And I thought he was a Greek-Australian.


                          No land border never stopped them supporting Hezbollah. And that's across two land borders instead of one.
                          They supported Hezbollah through Syria and the Fall of the Assadregime will end this.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                            The quote and link I provided support my case that most of the movement is being hijacked by jihadis in Syria, the secular forces are essentially those of the government in charge now. You provided nothing to support your case.
                            Your quote doesn't prove anything, as I stated, Tukey and the US have their experts on the ground and they wont support Jihadists and you shouldn't confuse jihadists with the Brotherhood, its not the same.

                            Like I said Sunni Arabs are about 60+-5% of population, Sunni Kurds support the regime because they have been given de-facto autonomy its' in the link I provided on this thread
                            Yes yes the one Mio Kurd got autonomy, aaaaa were given..... what a nonsense.:whome:

                            ,
                            and in another link they walked out on meetings in Turkey with opposition because those did not promise to honor that autonomy if they reached power.
                            So what, as I stated, they are so few they dont matter.

                            Russia and Iran have no reason to stop support until the situation shows they regime or secular elements lost total control and no point in helping anymore.
                            Exactly what I'm saying. They will stop their support when it is clear that the Assadregime will lose.

                            They tried negotiating with opposition, it failed.
                            They will reach a sollution or Russia will lose everything, when the Assadregime goes.


                            I am not Greek... notice my signature.
                            Sorry for insulting you.

                            You are distorting the percentages of the factbook the 74% includes Sunni Kurds which are about 12-14%... which makes it around 62-60 Sunni Arab it is likely that if Christians leave their proportion will go up though. See the you confused the Religious: tag with automatically dividing by ethnicity... If you want you could take that 74%-9.7%(Kurds)=64.3%
                            I take it math isn't your fortee.... Kurds don't make up 9.7% of the Population. 9.7% Is all of the non-Arab ethnic group together i.e. Kurds, Armenians and Druze.

                            Arab 90.3%, Kurds, Armenians, and other 9.7%

                            -----
                            Sunni Muslim (Islam - official) 74%, other Muslim (includes Alawite, Druze) 16%, Christian (various denominations) 10%, Jewish (tiny communities in Damascus, Al Qamishli, and Aleppo)
                            And now lets do the math:
                            If Ethnic Arabs are 90.3% and Alawites lets say 16% ( I'm guessing Druze don't even make up 1% since Sunni Moslem in their
                            entirety Arabs + Kurds make up 74%) than the Kurds make up only 0.3% of the population and that if don't consider the Druze population at all. That means there are only a few hundered Thousend Kurds in Syria. That is nothing, so I don't see why you think they will get anything out of this.

                            ... You also have to remember that a lot of Kurds weren't counted because they were non-citizens and were only re-granted their citizenship a year or so ago... They weren't counted lowering the amount of Kurds on paper(statistics wise) by 1/3rd to 1/4th of whats on the ground.
                            Yes about 50 000.







                            Iran has no land connection to Lebanon either but apparently they support and arm Hazbolah there, I am sure the Shiites in Iraq will help them to transit supply into Syria...
                            As I allready stated Iran used Syria to arm and train Hezbollah, this option will soon not be available anymore. And there are also Sunnis in Iraq, so it will be much more difficult to support the Hezbolloh over Iraq.

                            Approximately 60-65% Sunni Arab Majority in Syria perhaps a little more perhaps not.
                            NO, 74% without the Kurds, that's what the CIA Factbook says.
                            Last edited by Hitman817; 15 Jul 12,, 12:38.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Hitman817 View Post
                              Much safer.
                              Are you implying that the next regime will be hostile towards them? 100-150k people should move away to feel safe? They are citizens of Syria, why should they go elsewhere? They will be strangers wherever they move.

                              They supported Hezbollah through Syria and the Fall of the Assadregime will end this.
                              So, there is a way to transport 'aid' to Syria from Iran.
                              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                                Are you implying that the next regime will be hostile towards them? 100-150k people should move away to feel safe? They are citizens of Syria, why should they go elsewhere? They will be strangers wherever they move.
                                They might, since they support the Assadregime and thus they are also responsible for their crimes. In other words, they made their bed....


                                So, there is a way to transport 'aid' to Syria from Iran.
                                Yes, there is a new invention called plane, it can fly through air.....

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