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  • #31
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    It's only blackmail if you let it. Seriously, is Pakistan going to go nuke over a bunch of baby burners? Just like Cold Start, if your demands are extremely specific backed by extremely specifically stated military actions, ie your punitive expeditions are aimed at the destruction of enemy border camps only ... even if they are defended by the Pakistani Army, then would Pakistani Generals risk their villas over them, especially when they know that you will retreat once you've accomplish your OPOBJS?
    So INA's options are limited. Even if we take out their border camps, they will move their terror training camps deep inside (Maybe a Generals villa - Do a Bin laden on India) . They keep bleeding us and we keep seething with rage, till a day comes when they cross a red line that's unacceptable to us and force our hand in deciding their future and ours.


    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    The largest design to date is 12kts. I am not aware of anything bigger. And there are no such thing as tac nukes. And numerous got to be taken in context. We're talking about ~100 nukes, same as India. India may have 10-20 less. Nowhere close to the 1000s of the big 2.

    As for going for the cities. Hate to say this but Pakistani planes will get through to one or two, maybe even Dehli. You don't have the planes to maintain a complete net, especially if some of them are hunting in Pakistani skies. And you certainly don't maintain airborne radars 24/7 with their look down technologies.
    I agree. We're kinda expecting this would happen if sh*t hits the fan.
    Last edited by hammer; 27 Jun 12,, 14:12.
    Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie!'...till you can find a rock. ;)

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by hammer View Post
      So INA's options are limited. Even if we take out their border camps, they will move their terror training camps deep inside (Maybe a Generals villa - Do a Bin laden on India) . They keep bleeding us and we keep seething with rage, till a day comes when they cross a red line that's unacceptable to us and force our hand in deciding their future and ours.
      There's a limit to how far those camps can go before they're ineffective ... and when a full scale invasion is needed ... and the anticipated nuke exchange.

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by hammer View Post
        The third point is pretty interesting! Has India stopped giving them reasons to attack us? Can you elaborate on that.
        Take two incidents we can tie to Pakistan. Parliament attack in 2001 & 26/11. You can also include our embassy bombings of 2008 & 2009 in Kabul.

        What was the reason they were carried out.

        Just like that or whether to send a message to our administration to not mess around with them.

        There is very little to substantiate here. We don't know what our agencies are upto and likely will never know.

        There is all sorts of allegations of instigating insurgencies ie Balochistan and more over there. How much is true and how much is just their propaganda. We think they are just paranoid and very conspiracy minded, RAW+CIA+Mossad is the stereotypical lens popularly used to explain their problems.

        We believe we were attacked unlitaerally in all of those incidents. But is there smoke without fire.

        This is where rational/irrational comes in.

        Irrational says those were just attacks to support their ideology and must continue indefnitely.
        Rational says, send an appropriate message so it stops. There is a very clearly thought out objective invovled.

        Why the drop in attacks post 26/11 in India. Maybe the message was received.

        Take a look at this

        List of terrorist incidents in Pakistan since 2001 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

        In 2002, 15 terrorist attacks
        In 2003, 8 attacks
        In 2004, 18 attacks
        In 2005, 11 attcaks
        In 2006, 657 terrorist attacks
        In 2007, 1,503 terrorist attacks
        n 2008, the country saw 2,148 terrorist attacks
        n 2009, the worst of any year, 2,586 terrorist, insurgent and sectarian-related incidents were reported
        In 2010, 150 attacks
        In 2011, < 100 attacks

        So terrorism is dropping in Pakistan too, from the high points in 2006 - 2009. The question of why this steep rise & drop occurred equally applies to Pakistan as well.

        Understanding why those attacks took place and why they have reduced presently is a better indicator of whether there will be more in the future or not as opposed to blindly believing they will spike once ISAF quits Afghanistan.
        Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Jun 12,, 17:23.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by hammer View Post
          ..... But my only grouse is that they haven't found a suitable response for their nuclear blackmail.
          ....
          It is not about Pakistani nuclear blackmail. We dont worry about it, because we know and they know that we will bomb them out of existance.
          The bitter truth is that the bureaucrats in MOD have screwed up the defence procurement system so badly that everytime there is an emergency we go begging for critical ammo from the Israelis, the Russians and at times the US and French.

          That is the only reason we could not retaliate after 26/11, because we had a wimp as the COAS.

          Cheers!...on the rocks!!

          Comment


          • #35
            I though of this many times but couldn't find an answer:
            What should have been our response after 26/11?
            1. Strike the terror camps near the border (special forces or air force or cruise missiles?) - Do we have special forces which can deploy in quick time - say 24Hrs. Using AF or CM may escalate to a full blown war?
            Will it help? - Camps can be setup quickly again.

            2. Take out the leadership of the terror groups Mossad style - Do we have that capability? If yes - what are we waiting for?

            3. Limited war - what should be the objectives? Quick Land grab (what use?). The enemy was prepared.

            4. Full scale war - Is it worth it? We can't cross their red lines if we want to avoid nuclear war. Then what do we get out of this war?

            Is is only the COAS who was a wimp? or the whole Senior leadership of army/MOD in general?
            It took months to mobilize. The enemy was prepared to receive us. How many casualites would we have suffered? I think much more than 26/11.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by appu_sen View Post
              What should have been our response after 26/11?

              Is is only the COAS who was a wimp? or the whole Senior leadership of army/MOD in general?
              We say our leadership were wimps for not retaliating.

              The people who planned 26/11 say it did not cross our redline.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                Take two incidents we can tie to Pakistan. Parliament attack in 2001 & 26/11. You can also include our embassy bombings of 2008 & 2009 in Kabul.
                There is very little to substantiate here. We don't know what our agencies are upto and likely will never know.
                Just like that or whether to send a message to our administration to not mess around with them.
                What was the reason they were carried out.
                You tell me. What did the Indian Intel do so spectacular to warrant Parliament attack,26/11,Afghan embassy bombings...etc ?

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                There is all sorts of allegations of instigating insurgencies ie Balochistan and more over there. How much is true and how much is just their propaganda. We think they are just paranoid and very conspiracy minded, RAW+CIA+Mossad is the stereotypical lens popularly used to explain their problems.
                We believe we were attacked unlitaerally in all of those incidents. But is there smoke without fire.
                Again, you tell me. Where is the fire? Is Balochistan on fire? Even if we support Balochistan insurgency, its a tit for tat for Kashmir. So what did we do so extra-ordinary that warranted those attacks?

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                This is where rational/irrational comes in.
                Irrational says those were just attacks to support their ideology and must continue indefnitely.
                Rational says, send an appropriate message so it stops. There is a very clearly thought out objective invovled.
                Why the drop in attacks post 26/11 in India. Maybe the message was received.
                You mean the Pakistani terror message? You mean we are provoking you to be terrorists? So how exactly were y'all provoked?


                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                List of terrorist incidents in Pakistan since 2001 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

                In 2002, 15 terrorist attacks
                In 2003, 8 attacks
                In 2004, 18 attacks
                In 2005, 11 attcaks
                In 2006, 657 terrorist attacks
                In 2007, 1,503 terrorist attacks
                n 2008, the country saw 2,148 terrorist attacks
                n 2009, the worst of any year, 2,586 terrorist, insurgent and sectarian-related incidents were reported
                In 2010, 150 attacks
                In 2011, < 100 attacks

                So terrorism is dropping in Pakistan too, from the high points in 2006 - 2009. The question of why this steep rise & drop occurred equally applies to Pakistan as well.
                Understanding why those attacks took place and why they have reduced presently is a better indicator of whether there will be more in the future or not as opposed to blindly believing they will spike once ISAF quits Afghanistan.
                LOL... Even the Pakistani establishment didn't blame the Indians for these attacks. All Pakistani media has been screaming "insider job". They were/are sitting on a powder keg. They trained so many terrorists and let them wander all over their country. One fine day, they start handing them over to the Americans/killing them for the Chinese. Even your "blue eyed boy" Ilyas Kashmiri joined Alqaeda. This was expected to happen. We just sat here watching , eating popcorn. We didn't have to do anything. You are stewing in your own juice, just like Rameshwar Nath Kao expected.

                In fact, a young Pakistani band (really gutsy) even made a song about the real situation in Pakistan. Have a look at it.

                Last edited by hammer; 28 Jun 12,, 12:25.
                Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie!'...till you can find a rock. ;)

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by lemontree View Post
                  It is not about Pakistani nuclear blackmail. We dont worry about it, because we know and they know that we will bomb them out of existance.
                  The bitter truth is that the bureaucrats in MOD have screwed up the defence procurement system so badly that everytime there is an emergency we go begging for critical ammo from the Israelis, the Russians and at times the US and French.
                  That is the only reason we could not retaliate after 26/11, because we had a wimp as the COAS.
                  Sir,
                  Do you think VKS and Antony have laid the groundwork to rectify this problem?
                  Last edited by hammer; 28 Jun 12,, 12:04.
                  Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie!'...till you can find a rock. ;)

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by hammer View Post
                    You tell me. What did the Indian Intel do so spectacular to warrant Parliament attack,26/11,Afghan embassy bombings...etc ?

                    Again, you tell me. Where is the fire? Is Balochistan on fire? Even if we support Balochistan insurgency, its a tit for tat for Kashmir. So what did we do so extra-ordinary that warranted those attacks?
                    There is nothing i can tell you. Speculation.

                    Originally posted by hammer View Post
                    You mean the Pakistani terror message? You mean we are provoking you to be terrorists?
                    No, that message is stop whatever we are doing. Its an idea.

                    Originally posted by hammer View Post
                    LOL... Even the Pakistani establishment didn't blame the Indians for these attacks. All Pakistani media has been screaming "insider job". They were/are sitting on a powder keg. They trained so many terrorists and let them wander all over their country. One fine day, they start handing them over to the Americans/killing them for the Chinese. Even your "blue eyed boy" Ilyas Kashmiri joined Alqaeda. This was expected to happen. We just sat here watching , eating popcorn. We didn't have to do anything. You are stewing in your own juice, just like Rameshwar Nath Kao expected.
                    Then why did everything drop so abruptly in 2010 if 'They trained so many terrorists and let them wander all over their country'. It stayed down in 2011 and this year does not look like it will change that trend.

                    All i'm saying is there was a spike in both countries and a lull during the same period as well. Whether it was overflowing from them to us i don't know.

                    But i can say that if if rises again in the future over there we may see the same here. That happened a few years after the invasion and has decreased since the last three years. I expect it to stay down.

                    Btw awesome vid

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      There is nothing i can tell you. Speculation.
                      No, that message is stop whatever we are doing. Its an idea.
                      So you got nothing. Stop doing what?

                      Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      Then why did everything drop so abruptly in 2010 if 'They trained so many terrorists and let them wander all over their country'. It stayed down in 2011 and this year does not look like it will change that trend.
                      List of terrorist incidents in Pakistan since 2001 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

                      Check your own source again. It doesn't drop in 2010. Even if it stayed down in 2011, it was due to US drones, Pak army action again Pak taliban, etc etc. Why do you think it came down? How did you come to the conclusion that India is responsible for that? Please don't speculate.

                      Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      All i'm saying is there was a spike in both countries and a lull during the same period as well. Whether it was overflowing from them to us i don't know.

                      But i can say that if if rises again in the future over there we may see the same here. That happened a few years after the invasion and has decreased since the last three years. I expect it to stay down.
                      Btw awesome vid
                      So you think India is responsible for the terror attacks happening in India. You know I've heard such silly arguments before, it was after 9/11, "some" claiming it be fake and stage managed by Americans, Anarchists responsible for London attacks and Pakistanis trying to pin the blame on RAW for 26/11. All these conspiracy theories mostly originated from a certain group of people.

                      Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      Btw awesome vid
                      I know. Takes real guts to do that video, that too in Pakistan.
                      Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie!'...till you can find a rock. ;)

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        We say our leadership were wimps for not retaliating.

                        The people who planned 26/11 say it did not cross our redline.
                        If you were incharge, what would have been you response to 26/11 (with the same resources at your disposal as it was on 26/11 to whoever was incharge)?

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          The proper intelligence is the show stopper. Can you determine the guilty party and their vulnerabilities that you can hit within a reasonable amount of time. In the meantime, I would have done what both India and the US did after their attacks, mass everything and prepare for total war.

                          The good part is that when you do decide to act, your forces are ready. The bad part is if your intel takes too long, you've also warned the enemy and gave him time to prepare.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                            The proper intelligence is the show stopper. Can you determine the guilty party and their vulnerabilities that you can hit within a reasonable amount of time. In the meantime, I would have done what both India and the US did after their attacks, mass everything and prepare for total war.

                            The good part is that when you do decide to act, your forces are ready. The bad part is if your intel takes too long, you've also warned the enemy and gave him time to prepare.
                            Sir,
                            I had give a few options of retaliation in the above posts. Please tell me which one of them or any other would have been optimal.
                            Our intelligence at that time was poor, both in anticipating the specifics of the attack and finding high value targets after the attack.
                            Also as far as I have followed the news, our forces took around a months time to completely mobilize, enough time for the enemy to prepare for blunting the attack.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by lemontree View Post

                              That is the only reason we could not retaliate after 26/11, because we had a wimp as the COAS.
                              Capt LT,

                              I would agree with GOI's decision not to mount a full fledge response to 26/11.Just this decision. Nothing else.
                              Pakistan is at such a stage, of which no Indian planner would have ever dreamt of. Pakistan not fighting India will and is fighting everyone, including itself. All of these with India nor even raising a single finger!

                              26/11 was meant to unite Pakistan against India. Sadly for Pakistan, our politicians are busy making money, to notice silly things like "national security".

                              Pakistan's greatest benefactor is now almost on the verge of bombing it to stone age. A few more propaganda video about Ugihirs and watch how China will start demanding Pakistan do more.

                              I hope PA generals are given life long opportunity to loot Pakistan. This is the best deterrent against a Pak nuke attack on India.

                              The choice in front of PA general with his fingers on nuke button should be: Loosing his farm house, US/ UK citizenship etc versus "Protecting Pakistan from India"!

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by appu_sen View Post
                                I had give a few options of retaliation in the above posts. Please tell me which one of them or any other would have been optimal.
                                Way above my pay grade. What I do know is that any action has to be visible and it has to be effective. That means that the strike must be seen as hurting the enemy and hurting the enemy bad.

                                Originally posted by appu_sen View Post
                                Also as far as I have followed the news, our forces took around a months time to completely mobilize, enough time for the enemy to prepare for blunting the attack.
                                That's fast. Extremely fast. Just that the Pakistanis don't have to mobilize as fast.

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