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  • #31
    Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
    A GERMAN PLEA FOR A MORE BRITISH EUROPE
    It's a Die Welt article. Springer press. Anti-European agenda. Next.

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    • #32
      Analysis: Britain outside the EU - Switzerland with nukes?

      (Reuters) - Without a coherent plan for going it alone, Britain may be drifting towards its biggest strategic move in a generation: a disorderly exit from the European Union.

      Prime Minister David Cameron wants Britain to remain inside the EU, but if the British people ever get a referendum on whether to stay inside a Europe that sees its survival in closer unity then polls suggest they would vote "No".

      Even if the politicians, jittery at a stagnant economy before the 2015 election, avoid promising a referendum, attempts to renegotiate Britain's relationship with the EU are unlikely to be countenanced by Germany, the bloc's dominant power.

      Britain might well take the plunge, but beyond exhilaration there is little realistic sense of what may lie below.

      "We are sliding towards the exit without any strategizing about what comes afterwards," said Charles Grant, the pro-European director of the Centre for European Reform, an influential think-tank which seeks to make the EU work better.

      "(Finance minister George) Osborne and Cameron actually want to stay in the EU so I don't think they have a sort of plan B. There is no strategy and the skeptics can't agree on what to do."

      Leaving the European Union was once farfetched: only a decade ago, British leaders were arguing about when to join the single currency and talk of an EU exit was the reserve of a motley crew of skeptics on the fringes of both major parties.

      But the turmoil of the euro zone crisis and the prospect of the currency bloc forming a closer political union that London would not want to join have convinced some wiser heads that Britain is in danger of heading to the exits.

      Such is the concern, that a senior banker was photographed leaving a breakfast at Cameron's Downing Street office on Tuesday carrying a document stating: "What would most threaten the City? i) the UK leaving the EU."

      Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg warned this week that Britain could be sidelined or forced out of the door.

      The coalition between Cameron's more sceptical Conservatives and Clegg's pro-European Liberal Democrats was formed in 2010 on the basis of standstill pact to move neither forward nor backward in European integration.

      But the EU has inconveniently refused to stand still. And the euro zone crisis is driving the 17 members of the currency area towards much closer political and economic union.

      SWITZERLAND WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS?

      Dropping out for a future as an off-shore Switzerland or quixotic dreams of an making London a world trading center for Chinese currency and Russian oil money would sit badly with the British elite's post-imperial penchant for global statecraft.

      "The rationale for Europe today is not peace anymore - it is power," former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, whose ambition to be the first president of the European Council of EU leaders was thwarted in 2009, told the BBC.

      "The European project of integration is going to go ahead, like it or not, and it is important that we are part of that because we as a country - 60 million people in a small island nation - if we want to exercise weight and influence we have got to do it through our alliances in part and one of those is the European Union."

      Ditching a 60-year strategy of trying to hedge European integration with national beliefs about a special relationship with Washington or a brittle Commonwealth of former colonies would undermine what remains of Britain's global influence.

      The United States would take less notice of the world's sixth largest economy if it were no longer inside the EU, while British leaders might find trade talks with China or gas talks with Russia altogether more intimidating without EU backing.

      A source close to Britain's leaders said talk of an imminent exit was overblown and that London would continue to hedge its bets. The source said the government would seek to redefine its relationship with the EU when it became clear how the bloc would look after reforms mainly driven by Germany.

      "We are not going to be part of a fiscal union, so where could we be? We are not talking about leaving the EU but of being part of a different, perhaps looser EU that could result from this euro crisis," the source said.

      "And we can do it. Those who say there is no alternative for Britain are wrong: we can still trade with Europe and the rest of the world."

      The prospect of Britain's $2.5 trillion economy, one seventh of EU gross domestic product, slipping away would damage both the EU and Britain.

      Britain might come off worst, especially if the euro zone can somehow resolve the debt crisis.

      Armchair dreams of splendid isolation might turn out to be hollow: a former imperial power stranded just 21 miles from continental Europe having to pay for market access to its biggest trade partner and with no seat at the policy table.

      TRADING PLACES

      The options outside are limited: following the path of Norway, Switzerland or Turkey or even a full break leaving Britain stranded in the World Trade Organization.

      Open Europe, a Euro skeptical think thank which says it wants to save British membership by reforming it, said in a paper entitled "Trading Places: Is EU membership still the best option for UK trade", that all options were inferior to EU membership.

      It argued for a new "UK model" which would see Britain retain the benefits of the single market and the customs union but allow London to pick-and-mix its own EU policies.

      Such an approach would be hard to sell to European partners and could lead to confrontation, especially if British leaders were backed by a referendum demanding a new deal they could not deliver. Britain has already renegotiated its entry terms once.

      Facing such a failure, Cameron could be vulnerable to more sceptical leadership rivals plus the electoral threat from the UK Independence Party, which has drawn voters away from his Conservatives with its promise to take Britain out of the EU.

      Cameron told City of London financiers he was a skeptic a month before he vetoed a new EU fiscal treaty in December, forcing euro zone states to set their new rules outside the formal EU structure, although using its institutions.

      But the prime minister insists it is not in the national interest to leave the EU, the destination for half of Britain's exports.

      "Outside, we would end up like Norway, subject to every rule for the single market made in Brussels but unable to shape those rules," he said in his most nuanced speech on Europe.

      Skeptics say pan-European financial regulation and talk of a banking union already threaten the City of London, which they see as Britain's strongest card at the world's top table.

      Outside, London might market itself as a low-tax, offshore trading center and a playground for the international rich, but that may not sell to a local population which expects London to pay its way in tax revenues for a welfare state.

      Many of the banks trading there would also be subject to EU rules formed without London. Foreign investors who use Britain as a springboard for an EU market of half a billion people might find Britain a much less interesting proposition.

      Britain would be alone in the open sea.

      (Edited by Paul Taylor)
      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by snapper View Post
        : No single 'demos' so can't be a 'polis'!

        : 'Many coloured dot companies compete, through competition, on an equal playing ground, 'society' benefits from the increased tax revenue. You cannot fund Europe on the 'workers rights/free healthcare model'. This fact is slowly dawning on the elite but it will take years to make the average Frog farmer (who has been living cosy with EU subsidies for years) understand.

        Fact is that having done away with the USSR we are now trying to institute another corporate/political elite - we bail the banks out and the banks buy Government bonds to ease the Government debt. Of course they say it's all for our good etc.. but it's lies, damn lies and accountancy. "You can fool all of the people some of the time or all of the people some of the time but not both." They have lied about their 'democracy' - hell if the EU was a country it wouldn't be alowed to join the EU for lack of democracy! They have lied about the euro so many times that nobody believes them.

        Tell me if the euro goes caput does this mean that Germany must invades Poland? Wasn't that the point?
        To quote JHK on this,history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. I don't think that the Germany will invade Poland nor that what is coming will be the same as it was in the 30'es. As the events unfold and history speeds up,you will see flashbacks but they are not the same thing as they were back than,yet just the reflections of the past. However the things that remain the same are that we are all humans,we all need space to live,air to breathe and the food to eat so any threat to those will trigger the reaction. And if all of those depend on money and the money is in trouble, than the money becomes the common denominator of all of those basic needs.

        For me the story is quite simple. All the wealth that was created in Europe, one way or another for the past 400 years is the result of expansion. First you had the colonies, great colonial powers that expanded all across the globe,accumulated all this enormous wealth and than based on that accumulation or supply if you want, created the system of living that has certain rules upon it operates. Somehow during this time,the notion that the Base of the system is accumulation, meaning that it is not a renewable source of wealth was let out of the equation. But that didn't change the reality, the reality was and is that that supply is getting used up. In the times when that fact gets realised, conflicts emerge. In other words, you have less and less of the wealth by default, since you use that wealth to live the way you do and the supply gets lower and lower by each passing moment. From time to time you realise that but than since you forgot where your supply has came from,you automatically assume that since there is less of it, that someone has been stealing it from you. And whom is to blame, no one else than your neighbours and thus wars accrue. This is known as power struggle or re configuration of powers. Power shifts if you like.

        The perfect example is the case of Germany and its relationship with the rest of the Europeans. It has been considered to be the Europe's driving force but also a perfect bogey man.
        When I analyse the history I can't avoid the feeling that somehow, Germany always feel constrained by others. Out of all European countries it had only few colonies,it wasn't allowed to expand as the British did,or French or Spain,or Dutch, it was always constrained on that landmass and it constantly was looking for a ways to expand or to be like others. So in the First World war it tried to expand,in the Second World war it tried to expand also and both times it failed with horrible consequences for its population. It did a lot of damage to others as well in that attempt, no doubt about that. But...
        Germany never abandoned the Europe, it always considered itself to be European, it has the same origins,same cultural heritage,same values. Why than it is not allowed to be like the others when it is the same as others? That question sparkled the enormous frustration and anger, so as the result of a wrong answer to a right question, Hitler emerged. Others hate us cause they fear us and they fear us cause we are the Europe,we are the true ones. His obsession with the truth, the origin if you like was so obsessive that he went to India,to Afghanistan searching for the proof that they are that true one,the master race whom has the right to govern all others. Thus the idea of a new order emerged where the Germany will play the central role and serve as the cohesive factor. To be an example to be followed. To be recognised. You have that story embedded into the symbols of Germany, which is the eagle (symbolises the desire for power) and the British lion (that symbolises the right to power). Also you have the French symbol Le Rooster (that symbolises the errr...what does it symbolises?The right to jump on anything that has at least one feather?It symbolises the romantic vision of dawn breaker, the one whom brings change, but also it is a fertility cult of the land, aka villages and thus you have the French obsession with subsidised farmers and agriculture).
        So you have all these different cultural backgrounds,different bases yet they all share the same source for that, same accumulated supply which is getting lower and lower by the minute.

        Than it is logical what the Europe is. It is an attempt to equalise the rights to that supply instead of fighting over the dominance over it. But that doesn't change the very nature of how the supply works and that is that once it is tapped in it gets eventually depleted. You can do what ever you want to preserve it,you can rationalise it,you can economise it,you can regulate it but you can't prevent it from disappearing. Our economists usually look at Europe as a project that is designed to socialise the costs of Germany's unification after the Berlin wall has fell and that the Euro's purpose was the tool to do it. Since Euro was initially the double the value of the Deutsch Mark, that doubling means unification of two Germanies into one,since it assumes that once the two Germanies are united into one Germany,they will be worth it twice as much. But since the Eastern Germany is a dwarf compared to the West Germany, the rest of the Europe actually pays for the development of the East Germany in order to avoid instability within unified Germany. So that costs than gets transferred to other countries that want to join Eu, so Eastern Block now has to pay the cost of the European countries that were servicing the German unification but since that cost is so large the Europe is forced to expand even further but as it expands it finds out that the economies that it expands to are to weak to handle the burden and problems arise. That is why I think that the European enlargement is put on indefinite hold and that the process of equalisation is now in place, since the costs of expansion have reached its peaks and that now you have the contraction aka the downward slope on the curve. The attempt to gain that wealth from the US market and the failure of the US economy simply revealed that so in that sense, blaming the Americans for causing the Eu problems doesn't hold the water.

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        • #34
          The Swiss stole my idea, micro country with maximum damage...Life is not fair.

          Comment


          • #35
            Finland May Leave Euro instead of helping bailout others.
            Debt crisis: Finland warns of euro exit rather than pay debts of others - European, Business - Independent.ie
            By Independent.ie reporters, Robin Emmott and John O'Donnell

            Friday July 06 2012

            FINLAND would consider leaving the eurozone rather than paying the debts of other countries in the currency bloc, Finnish Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen has said.

            In a newspaper interview today she said she'd consider crashing her AAA-rated country out of the eurozone.

            “Finland is committed to being a member of the eurozone, and we think that the euro is useful for Finland. Finland will not hang itself to the euro at any cost and we are prepared for all scenarios.

            “Collective responsibility for other countries' debt, economics and risks; this is not what we should be prepared for. We are constructive and want to solve the crisis, but not on any terms,” she said.
            Btw I am not sure but per capita I think the Finnish are expected to provide more for the bailouts of others than Germany.

            ---

            Snapper if the Euro goes we get better trading ability for Eastern nations via bilateral treaties than available today. But my guess is the trade union will survive the fall of the currency union, or least most of the trade union.

            Germany would gain if it left the Euro but as they mentioned on zero hedge the party who defects first defects best, in a game theory scenario. Which would mean Finland if they leave would be least damage and if not benefit outright, everyone else would suffer progressively more.

            Germany needs the trade union otherwise its kaput. But the currency union extraction will take its toll on exports one way or another. I figure they will still do ok and won't need to invade anyone.
            Last edited by cyppok; 07 Jul 12,, 15:43.
            Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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            • #36
              All their 'crisis summits' and promises... Spanish 10 year bonds nearing 7% again and Italian bonds back to 6%. The lies and false promises are no longer believed - indeed believable! Germany will not invade Poland, or France or anyone when this mess falls apart, Hitler is dead. Yet we have been lead to this financial cataclysm on precisely such a premise. Well that and anti democratic would be commies who have sold out their idealism to bankers. So what good did the Spanish bank bailout do? None! Why? Because EFSF hasn't got the damn money anyway! Was all just words on pieces of paper.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by snapper View Post
                All their 'crisis summits' and promises... Spanish 10 year bonds nearing 7% again and Italian bonds back to 6%. The lies and false promises are no longer believed - indeed believable! Germany will not invade Poland, or France or anyone when this mess falls apart, Hitler is dead. Yet we have been lead to this financial cataclysm on precisely such a premise. Well that and anti democratic would be commies who have sold out their idealism to bankers. So what good did the Spanish bank bailout do? None! Why? Because EFSF hasn't got the damn money anyway! Was all just words on pieces of paper.
                Your a Diamond snapps . :whome:

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                • #38
                  Nigel Farage speaks out again

                  Leaving Facebook... | Facebook

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                  • #39
                    Keeping track of all this and then this pops up a few days ago. Apparently they are knee deep in oil costs since shutting down their nuclear reactors, orders from the Euro zone and down, and things are still slow somewhat in the U.S.

                    (Reuters) - Japan's government could run out of money by the end of October, halting all state spending including salaries, pensions and unemployment benefits, because of a standoff in parliament that has blocked a bill to finance the deficit.

                    The deficit financing bill, which would allow the government to sell bonds needed to fund almost half of the budget, has languished in parliament as the ruling Democratic Party tussles with opposition parties that can use their control of the upper house to reject legislation.

                    "Without this bill, the budget will collapse," Finance Minister Jun Azumi said on Friday, pleading for cooperation from the two largest opposition parties.

                    "It doesn't matter which party is in power. I really hope that we can get a multi-partisan agreement on the deficit bill."

                    If the bill is not passed, government spending would grind to a halt, the world's third-largest economy would be put in jeopardy and its standing among credit ratings agencies could suffer.

                    Japan is not the only developed nation that is staring at an imminent fiscal crisis. Greece's debt-strapped government could run out of money within weeks unless it secures a 31.8 billion euro tranche of bailout funds from the European Union.

                    The U.S. economy is facing $4 trillion worth of expiring tax cuts and automatic government spending reductions at the end of the year, and a standoff in Congress makes the chance of a compromise over the so-called "fiscal cliff" look dim.

                    The impasse in Japan however comes just after Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda won over the opposition to pass an increase in sales tax in the lower house of parliament. However, a section of his party quit over the vote, and is poised to form a new party.

                    Noda's Democrats still control a majority in the lower house of parliament, but are outnumbered by the opposition in the upper house. Many analysts say mid-term elections could be called.

                    "There's so much uncertainty over the political outlook that it's hard to say how big the risk is of the government running out of cash," said Naoki Iizuka, senior economist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

                    "The key would be the timing of any snap election and who would be leading the Democratic Party at the time."

                    Opposition parties have threatened to delay Japan's deficit financing bill in the past but have eventually yielded and voted in favor. This time, however, the opposition may be more emboldened because of the row over the sales tax hike.

                    JAPAN'S FISCAL CLIFF

                    Japan's budget for the current fiscal year that started in April totals 90.3 trillion yen.

                    The deficit financing bill allows Japan to sell 38.3 trillion yen in government bonds to fund the budget. The remainder is funded by tax revenue, non-tax revenue and income from bonds earmarked for public works projects.

                    Government expenditure is forecast to reach 43.9 trillion yen by the end of September, Azumi said.

                    Assuming that the deficit financing bill does not pass, the government would have only 46.1 trillion yen on hand, Azumi said. This means the government is sure to run out of money by the end of October, he said.

                    The first in line to take a hit if Japan starts running out of money would be regional governments, which rely on tax grants from the national government for much of their spending.

                    The Finance Ministry could start cutting tax grants to local governments in September if there is no sign that the deficit financing bill will pass, Azumi said.

                    The government would try to prioritize pension and unemployment payments, but once the money runs out, there is not much the government can do, finance ministry bureaucrats have said.

                    Prime Minister Noda could reach an agreement with opposition parties to provide some temporary funding. However, Noda does not have the right to override parliament on the voting of the deficit funding bill.

                    Japan already has the world's largest debt burden at nearly twice the size of its $5 trillion economy, and a breakdown in fiscal spending could increase skepticism that politicians are losing their grip on public finances.

                    (Editing by Joseph Radford and Eric Meijer)

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Btw:

                      The German Supreme Court has hinted that it will not do a quick ruling on the constitutionality of ESM for Germany in order to not upset the stock market.
                      There might be an injunction banning President Gauck from signing it into power though.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Economics are at play, but this is a institutional problem. Adam Smith wrote "Wealth of Nations", as he recognized the Nation-State was fundamental to an economy. Breaking apart borders was part of the globalization concept, but it did not adequately take into account the cultural heritages and factors at play.

                        When a recession occurs, countries must be able to work with their currency to prevent depression. Begging Germany for funds is not the ideal situation. But if Germany does not bail out Greece, Interest rates skyrocket and capital flows to Greece are no longer obtainable. But in the bailout, the German's lose their success to the Greeks. The EU seemingly proves that the Nation State is fundamental to an economy.

                        For all of Merkel's statements, Germany is reliant on the Southern European countries to maintain its export business. Imagine the Euro broke apart, the Deutshe Mark used to trade higher than the Euro-US $ exchange. The purpose of this Union was to prevent warfare, but asl to prevent Germany (Technologically Advanced Economy) with Russia (Labor Force & Natural Resources). But think about it this way, if the Deutsche Mark were still trading, Mercedes would cost 40% more.

                        So Germany benefits economically from the Union, but it sill wants to maintain it's sovereignty in the region. This is such a juxtaposed concept. Wasn't the Union meant to create Unity? The U.S. fears the its failure b/c all Government Debts could be exposed. But in the U.S. we have an economic crisis, in Europe, it's an identity crisis.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          For all of Merkel's statements, Germany is reliant on the Southern European countries to maintain its export business
                          I take the liberty of quoting myself from an ealier discussion:

                          Originally posted by Tarek Morgen View Post
                          Do you know how much Germany exports to Greece? Less than 5 Billions € a year. Greece shares about roughly 0.35% of all German exports. For comparision, German exports grew by 1.6 % 3.6 in the first two months of this year. Also please stop bringing up Germany going back to the DM like it is a realistic outcome of this situation. It won't happen.
                          The only souther European country that imports German goods in a noteable amount is Italy. The small Netherlands alone are almost as important as an export market as the most of southern Euro Zone together.

                          the Deutshe Mark used to trade higher than the Euro-US $ exchange.
                          Never Happened. Ever. At it's highest point (in the mid-90ths) the $ to DM exchange rate was around 1,50$ for every Mark. Even at it's strongest the DM was still weaker than the € at it's lowest point ca 10 years ago.

                          The purpose of this Union was to prevent warfare, but asl to prevent Germany (Technologically Advanced Economy) with Russia (Labor Force & Natural Resources)
                          The framework for the € was created after the German reunifcation due French pressure. Back then nobody was even thinking about a German-Soviet economic alliance...

                          ut think about it this way, if the Deutsche Mark were still trading, Mercedes would cost 40% more.
                          If the DM would still exist it would be seen as a "safe haven" and see a strong rise. This would has its effects on German exports, but nearly as strong as you seem to believe. Around 2008/2009 the € was at it's highest point so far, 1,60$ for every €. Despite being so strong at the time (much higher than the DM could have been), German exports not just kept rising, it did so mostly outside Eurozone (which of course was unaffected by the strong euro).

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                          • #43
                            German exports have doubled since the Euro. Exports in 1999 were less than 500 billion, and today total over one trillion. They benefit from artificially cheap currency.

                            They export to non European countries b/c the exchange rate of the Euro is weaker than it could be. While I do agree almost 70% of their exports remain in the Zone,

                            Exports are falling in 2012, but that is due to neighbors exchanging like currency. The 70-30 split will move towards 60-40. I truly believe Germany has won the European Unity project.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Some of the things you write are true, much is wrong, and so are many of your conclusion.


                              Originally posted by AmericanCentury View Post
                              German exports have doubled since the Euro. Exports in 1999 were less than 500 billion and today total over one trillion.
                              Mostly true (exports were above 500 billion € in 1999 but what the hell)

                              They benefit from artificially cheap currency.
                              And here is where you go wrong. At least if one is to assume that meant that the sole/main reason for the rose in exports is a weak €. There are many different reasons besides the € (which certainly is a factor, but just that, one factor among many), reduction of production costs due internal reforms, general rise of trade and globalisation, emerging new markets in eastern Europe & Asia and many more.

                              They export to non European countries b/c the exchange rate of the Euro is weaker than it could be.
                              Once more...German Exports rose to record highs during a time (2005-2008) when the Euro was at a peak. At that time German exports became MORE expensive than they would have been with the DM outside the Eurozone, yet still archived then all-time highs and saw Germany as the world leading export nations. Seriously..spend a few seconds to look at the international exchange rates before 2009 and then try to claim again that the Euro was weak back then. The Euro did and does help German exports for the most part, but not nearly on the scale you seem to believe.

                              Exports are falling in 2012, but that is due to neighbors exchanging like currency.
                              January 2012: German exports rose
                              February 2012: German exports rose
                              March 2012: German exports rose
                              April 2012: German exports fell
                              May 2012: German exports rose (latest month with available data)

                              I am sorry, but not are most of your conclusion wrong, but so are even the simple facts you base them on. Do you want to continue to debate a position that you took, even though you argue from false data? There are plenty of valid different opinion and views on a matter like the current situation in Europe, but to be taken serious you cannot simply use wrong or made up data as the basis of yours.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Tarek,your gold for eurosceptics.:whome:
                                Those who know don't speak
                                He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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