What if: Germany went ahead with Operation Sea Lion?

[zraver]

I am assuming that 1. the US enters the war about the same time, and Operation Torch occurs on schedule even though there are no British to the East pushing West. Plus a for real bombing campaign out of England that is picking up steam forcing Germany to both fortify France and contest the fight in North Africa because if the Germans lose in Tunisia and the Americans can take Scicily, Libya, Egypt and Palestine fall to the allies by default. 2. Hitler ignores logistics and focuses on paper numbers as he did in real history so the anemic pace of AFV and other production means the German army has more panzer divisions but only has about half of them equipped with modern Pz-IIIJ+ tanks the rest being equipped with older versions, Pz38's or captured French tanks. German infantry divisions do have full compliments or either Stug III or Pz IV AFV's. Very few pak 40 L43 guns have been made or are in service though the exposure to the US Sherman has sped up production but will take awhile. 43 or whe ever Germany begins large scale production of 75mm gun tanks is a use it or lose it moment for Stalin


Barbarossa in reverse in 1943 Soviet OOB (June 41 OOB with 43 equipment)

Not pulling any units from the South or east just using The Western military districts and stavka reserves Soviet strength they could ahve funneled through Poland would be 43 mobile divisions and 96 leg divisions. Of the mobile divisions 28 of them are tank divisions with a TOE of 8400 battle tanks and 2800 armored cars or light tanks. Also by 43 the shortage in radios is less pronounced, the new junior commanders (regiment and below) would be fully trained.

Western Special Military Dist- 20 mobile divisions, 23 leg divisions
WSMD reserves- 4 TD, 2 MRD, 3RD, 3 para div, 2 motorcycle reg, AT bgd, cav reg, 9 art reg, 3 hvy art reg, siege art reg, 4 eng reg, 2 bridging reg

3rd Army- 2 TD, 1 MRD, 7RD, hvy tank bgd, AT reg, AA Bgd, 7 art reg, motorcycle regiment.

4th Army- 2TD, 1MRD, 4 RD, 3 art reg, hvy art teg, AA bn.

10th Army- 4TD, 2MRD, 6RD, 2CD, 2 motorcycle reg, 7 art reg, 2 AA bn, AT bgd

13th Army- 4 RD

PVO- 7 AA reg, 34 AA bn, 3 search light Bn, 2 barrage balloon bn, 4 signals bn, 1 fighter regiment

VVS- 21 fighter regiments, 14 bomber regiments, 2 fighter bomber regiments, 2 transport regiments

Baltic Military District 6 mobile divisions, 23 leg divisions

BMD reserves- 3 para div, spetsnaz reg, art reg, 2 bridging reg AA bn

8th Army- 2 TD, 1MRD, 5RD, motorcycle reg, 3 art reg, AT bgd, eng bgd, 2 AA bn

11th Army- 2 TD, 1 MRD, 8 RD, motorcycle reg, 4 art reg, hvy art reg, AT bgd, eng bn, 2 AA bn

27th Army- 7 RD, 2 art reg 2 AA bn

PVO- 3 AAA reg, 11 AA bn, 5 signals bn, 1 searchlight bn, 5 barrage ballon bn, 1 fighter regiment

VVS- 11 fighter regiments, 8 bomber regiments, 2 fighter-bomber regiments, 1 transport regiment

Leningrad Military District 6 mobile divisions, 16 leg divisions

LMD reserves 1 TD, 1 MRD, 3 RD, motor cycle reg, spetnaz reg, 2 art reg, bridging reg, 2 eng reg

7th Army- 4RD, AA bn, eng bn

14th Army- 1 TD, 4 RD, art reg, eng bn

23rd Army- 2TD, 1 MRD, 5RD, motorcycle reg, 5 art reg, 2 hvy art reg, siege art reg, 2 AA bn, motor eng bn, eng bn

PVO- 7 AA reg, 16 AA bn, 6 signals bn, 1 search light bn, 2 barrage ballon bn, 9 fighter regiment

VVS- 12 fighter regiments, 10 bomber regiments, 2 fighter bomber regiments, 1 transport regiment

Stavka Reserves 11 mobile divisions, 34 leg divisions

Stavka direct reserves- 2 TD, 1 MRD, 8RD, motor cycle reg, 2 art reg

16th Army- 2 TD, MRD, 2 RD, motorcycle reg, art reg AA bn

19th Army- 6 RD, 2 art reg, 3 eng bn

20th Army-2 TD, 1 motorized Div, 6 RD, motorcycle reg, 2 art reg, hvy art reg, bridging reg

21st Army- 2 TD, 1 MRD, 6 RD, motorcycle reg, 3 art reg, 2 eng bn

22nd Army- 6 RD, 2 art reg

24th Army- 6 RD, 3 art reg, hvy art reg

VVS long range aviation- 10 fighter regiments 37 bomber regiments

[zraver]

This is like claiming USA was going to attack certain countries, on a certain dates, based on rainbow war plans.

Every major army has what if scenarios. Si vis pacem, para bellum, right?

The Soviets were farther than planning defensive action. They planned and designed for offensive war. You don't need the KV-2 to defend the Soviet Union, its designed to bust up fortified lines. You don't need siege artillery to fight a defensive war, the Soviets had multiple regiments of it, paratroopers are not defensive troops the Soviets had 6 divisions. The T-34 was designed to drive from Moscow to Berlin on 4 fuel loads, each mechanized corps had an attached motorcycle regiment for offensive scouting... the list of offensive preparations is exhaustive.

[Doktor]

My main puzzle trying to figure out is what would have happened if USSR became an Axis power in 1940?

You don't propose alliance to someone you plan to attack.

Moreover, Soviet preps began in 1939

[Doktor]

The Soviets were farther than planning defensive action. They planned and designed for offensive war. You don't need the KV-2 to defend the Soviet Union, its designed to bust up fortified lines. You don't need siege artillery to fight a defensive war, the Soviets had multiple regiments of it, paratroopers are not defensive troops the Soviets had 6 divisions. The T-34 was designed to drive from Moscow to Berlin on 4 fuel loads, each mechanized corps had an attached motorcycle regiment for offensive scouting... the list of offensive preparations is exhaustive.

Look at the US inventory at the moment. Who is on the list, Canada or Mexico?

[zraver]

Look at the US inventory at the moment. Who is on the list?

Yes lets look at the US inventory- 2 airborne/air mobile divisions and a couple of marine formations to meet global treaty commitments. US heavy units are by and large (excepting military installations in Texas and Washington) well back from any international border and those close to said borders date back to WWII or even the Spanish American-War.

[zraver]

My main puzzle trying to figure out is what would have happened if USSR became an Axis power in 1940?

You don't propose alliance to someone you plan to attack.

Moreover, Soviet preps began in 1939

Soviet preparations began well before 39. The Soviet deep battle doctrine developed in the 30's is offensive in nature. They built tanks, first the BT series and then the T-34 to make use of this doctrine.

[Doktor]

Then you have missiles, carriers, subs, planes that can reach any spot on earth refueling.., but we are going waaay OT.

[Doktor]

Soviet preparations began well before 39. The Soviet deep battle doctrine developed in the 30's is offensive in nature. They built tanks, first the BT series and then the T-34 to make use of this doctrine.

So, if they became an Axis power... where would those go?

[Parihaka]

He would have if Germany hadn't been the first to invade Poland. If Hitler was smart, he could have let Soviet take Poland and force Britain and France to concede to Germany's terms for getting into the fight against Russia. Britain and France would have conceded although they would have demand that Germany put a stop to the concentration camps once they found out about it.

They were already well aware of the concentration camps pre-war, as they were of the eugenics campaign and the various forced sterilization and murder of 'sub humans'. There were reasons beyond the obvious political ones as to why Britain certainly was opposed to the Nazi regime.

[astralis]

BM,

i doubt the french and british would have done much about it. that type of moralizing is a distinctly american trait, and even then it was only until incontrovertible evidence was right in front of the public that they demanded something be done quick.

[Doktor]

Wiki says:

Concentration camp
The Random House Dictionary defines the term "concentration camp" as: "a guarded compound for the detention or imprisonment of aliens, members of ethnic minorities, political opponents, etc.", and, the American Heritage Dictionary defines it as: "A camp where civilians, enemy aliens, political prisoners, and sometimes prisoners of war are detained and confined, typically under harsh conditions."

Earliest usage and origins of the term

Polish historian Władysław Konopczyński has suggested the first concentration camps were created in Poland in the 18th century, during the Bar Confederation rebellion, when the Russian Empire established three concentration camps for Polish rebel captives awaiting deportation to Siberia.[5]

The earliest of these camps may have been those set up in the United States for Cherokee and other Native Americans in the 1830s; however, the term originated in the reconcentrados (reconcentration camps) set up by the Spanish military in Cuba during the Ten Years' War (1868–1878) and by the United States during the Philippine–American War (1899–1902).[6]

The English term "concentration camp" grew in prominence during the Second Boer War (1899–1902), when they were operated by the British in South Africa.[6][7]

There were a total of 45 tented camps built for Boer internees and 64 for black Africans. Of the 28,000 Boer men captured as prisoners of war, 25,630 were sent overseas. The vast majority of Boers remaining in the local camps were women and children.

Concentration camps were used in German South-West Africa during the Herero genocide between 1904 and 1907. The camp at Shark Island, Namibia was of the nature of an extermination camp, arguably the world's first.[8]

To put it short, nothing unseen before. Or so they thought.

[astralis]

z,

Very likely, but depending of German defensive preparations and the German economy it might not matter. Without Barbarossa driving German technology (assuming German win in North Africa by the end of 41) the pz IIIJ may still be the leadign tank of the panzerwaffe, there wont be any Tigers, Marders, panthers... The artillery branch will be understrength in tube artillery, the newblewerfer will still be just a smoke generator... The German armed forces might be significantly weaker than in real history. Soviet officers of the time may not have been able to fight their way out of a wet paper sack for under a 100,000 casualties but Soviet designers were top notch.

Another important question is who is in charge. Its too much to hope that Timoshenko is out, Stalin remained loyal to him for his entire life. However if Vatutin, Zhukov and a few others can get noticed and promoted to the right levels the operational planning ability of the Soviets goes way up even if execution lags. As has been said, quantity has a quality all its own and 7-10,000 T-34's swarming west against 2-3000 Pz-III's....not pretty.

one extra year of the german economy not going into full wartime economy means Germany is also considerably stronger once the war does start. if the soviets invade in 1943, you're talking significantly more panzer IVs, at a minimum. also, the assumption is that if sea lion goes through it's because Germany WON the Battle of Britain. which means RAF is probably wrecked, and as a result will not carry out much in the way of bombings.

also, it's far harder to carry out an offense than a defense...especially given the number of incompetent sycophants in the red army of 1941-2 (likely to be unchanged in this scenario). yes, the red army has a great upper echelon stable, but below sucked. it took the huge battles of 1941 and 1942 to really eliminate the incompetents, and even then it was never very good.

defense also means no general winter fighting for the soviets, and interior lines for the germans. far fewer partisans. less experience for russians in Deep Battle, and no american trucks.

i see initial russian breakthroughs, followed by massive "kettle" battles where the germans rip the heart out of the Red Army. casualty rates even worse than barbarossa, as the russians would have to concentrate even more. germans lose more than in 1941 too, but they don't suffer half as much the grinding attrition they did the next 3-4 years.

there's a lot of unknowns here though. a lot depends on if the US gets in the war, and if the UK stays in. even that's a toss-up-- yeah, a german defeat would be a morale booster but the actual invasion itself would have scared the crap out of a lot of British. hitler offers a white peace, who knows what happens.

[zraver]

So, if they became an Axis power... where would those go?

Finland, Baltics, Nordic states, Balkans, Germany, Italy, Western Europe, Turkey, Persia, Asia...

[Officer of Engineers]

He would have if Germany hadn't been the first to invade Poland. If Hitler was smart, he could have let Soviet take Poland and force Britain and France to concede to Germany's terms for getting into the fight against Russia. Britain and France would have conceded although they would have demand that Germany put a stop to the concentration camps once they found out about it.

Would not have been Churchill and frankly, I strongly doubt a UK-German alliance. The Sudetenland was the go for war. The UK most likely would have sat out between the USSR and Nazi Germany and getting ready to fight the much weakened victor.

[Parihaka]

Wiki says:



To put it short, nothing unseen before. Or so they thought.

Semantics over what to call them is one thing: using those semantics to claim the allies, certainly Britain would tolerate them is another.
Since it's fashionable to equate Churchill with british resistance to the Nazi's as though he were the rock on which it were based, I'll limit myself to some quotes from him.

BBC - History - World Wars: Churchill and the Holocaust
Winston Churchill The Threat of Nazi Germany 1934 - YouTube

France, as proved by history were willing to work with the Nazis. Britain was not.