South-east Asia: Indo-Chinese Flashpoint?

[Rani Lakshmibai]

Okay, the importance of the Malacca Straits cannot be overemphasized, 600 ships pass through it everyday, twice the number of ships that pass through the Suez Canal and three times and Panama Canal. 20% of the world's oil supply passes through there.

China has established rapport with just about every country in South-east Asia and has military pacts with many of them. In fact, a Chinese facility in Myanmar was built to track India's cruise/ballistic missile development in Orissa. India has finally woken up to threat (goddamn politicians to busy fighting to do a damn thing) and has developed the 'Look East' policy though it's too little, too late in my opinion.

In fact, this can be used to highlight the broader issue of how the Chinese are outflanking us from every direction in preparation for future conflict. They know we are the only nation that poses significant threat to them in Asia in the event of a conflict.

Does anybody know if India has taken any concrete steps to counter China? Acquire bases in South-east Asia; that is if there are any countries left that aren't hostile to us and have military pacts with China? What do you guys think of establishing bases in Mongolia or former Soviet bloc nations that border China, assuming however that they don't have good relations with China?

And another thing, why are the bloody Chinese hostile to begin with? We helped them get permanent seats in the UN, Hindi-chini bhai bhai, my God, I knew Nehru was a moron but how could a man his age be so naive? I'd like nothing more than to live in peace with them, damn it, I have so many friends of Chinese origin here in Toronto, Canada, but in Asia the situation is different. It's the bloody the communists, nutcases suppressing the country and throwing political dissenters into labour camps, blocking information, carrying out cultural and human genocide in Tibet etc.

Maybe India should fund anti-communist groups in China, help overthrow the communists and then setup a democratic government that will allow both India and China to live in peace.

[Officer of Engineers]

Okay, the importance of the Malacca Straits cannot be overemphasized, 600 ships pass through it everyday, twice the number of ships that pass through the Suez Canal and three times and Panama Canal. 20% of the world's oil supply passes through there.

China has established rapport with just about every country in South-east Asia and has military pacts with many of them. In fact, a Chinese facility in Myanmar was built to track India's cruise/ballistic missile development in Orissa. India has finally woken up to threat (goddamn politicians to busy fighting to do a damn thing) and has developed the 'Look East' policy though it's too little, too late in my opinion.

In fact, this can be used to highlight the broader issue of how the Chinese are outflanking us from every direction in preparation for future conflict. They know we are the only nation that poses significant threat to them in Asia in the event of a conflict.

Does anybody know if India has taken any concrete steps to counter China? Acquire bases in South-east Asia; that is if there are any countries left that aren't hostile to us and have military pacts with China? What do you guys think of establishing bases in Mongolia or former Soviet bloc nations that border China, assuming however that they don't have good relations with China?

You're overstretching. The Indian Ocean is an American lake. In fact, in all Chinese writings, they would rely on the USN and the RN if India would try to intercept Chinese shipping (Freedom of the Seas).

And India doesn't exactly have very friendly relations with the Asia -Stans, at least not to the point of bases. Check the Shanghai Five Accords to see the Chinese are already ahead of India in that direction.

[Rani Lakshmibai]

I know that India keeps at an arms length from America despite all the propaganda about India and American being allies and all, but what makes you think that America will take China's side if it should come down to war? By the way, I'm assuming that India will not initiate the war i.e. that it will be looking to keep peace in Asia.

The isolationist crap was very idealistic and yes, we are distant from most Asian states politically and diplomatically. What I'm wondering is if anything has changed, if India actually has developed any solid relationships with other nations in Asia or if there are any indications of that happening. For example, the Indian Navy just provided spares for the Vietnamese navy but I read the Vietnam and China agreed to jointly explore oil or something like that so I doubt the Vietnamese will be particularly pro-Indian.

[Officer of Engineers]

It's not that the Americans and the Brits are taking China's side. They're enforcing Freedom of the Seas. The PLAN is not in a position to come into the IO to challenge the InN but the InN is in a position to cut Chinese oil supplies by sea. Thus, for the Chinese, they would rely on the USN and the RN to keep the sealanes open.

SH5 is an anti-terrorist agreement. I doubt that any actual military alliance would spring out of that.

In any situation, the two countries would be restricted to a border war between the two.

[Rani Lakshmibai]

It's not that the Americans and the Brits are taking China's side. They're enforcing Freedom of the Seas. The PLAN is not in a position to come into the IO to challenge the InN but the InN is in a position to cut Chinese oil supplies by sea. Thus, for the Chinese, they would rely on the USN and the RN to keep the sealanes open.

I don't know, as of now, I thought it was most likely that the American-Chinese standoff over Taiwan would be what ignited the war. In which case America would be only too glad to have India block Chinese oil supplies coming through the Malacca Straits.

SH5 is an anti-terrorist agreement. I doubt that any actual military alliance would spring out of that.

SH5? Are you referring to the agreement between Vietnam and China? Are the Vietnamese wary of the Chinese?

[hammer]

SH5? Are you referring to the agreement between Vietnam and China? Are the Vietnamese wary of the Chinese?

No, he meant Shanghai 5 (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan).

[Officer of Engineers]

I don't know, as of now, I thought it was most likely that the American-Chinese standoff over Taiwan would be what ignited the war. In which case America would be only too glad to have India block Chinese oil supplies coming through the Malacca Straits.

You're overstretching again. The last thing the Chinese would be worrying about in a TW conflict is what's happenning in the IO. By definition of any USN action off TW, that would be an automatic blockade. They don't need the InN, although they might welcome India's flag although I don't know if India would be so willing to give it.

[Rani Lakshmibai]

Yep, you are right about that, unless it becomes all out war, though that is unlikely.

Moving back to the original topic Colonel, do you know if India has brokered any military deals with foreign nations, I heard that we had military bases somewhere in Central Asia but that sounds stupid to me, the Chinese wouldn't have allowed that.

[Officer of Engineers]

India does not have a permenant presence outside her national territories. However, there are agreements to provide troops in case of natural disasters or a common enemy, chiefly amongst these countries are Nepal and Iran.

And you're over-estimating Chinese influence. It's on par with India which is to say not very much.

[hammer]

Yep, you are right about that, unless it becomes all out war, though that is unlikely.

Moving back to the original topic Colonel, do you know if India has brokered any military deals with foreign nations, I heard that we had military bases somewhere in Central Asia but that sounds stupid to me, the Chinese wouldn't have allowed that.

We have an air base in Tajikistan IIRC.

[bull]

India does not have a permenant presence outside her national territories. However, there are agreements to provide troops in case of natural disasters or a common enemy, chiefly amongst these countries are Nepal and Iran.

And you're over-estimating Chinese influence. It's on par with India which is to say not very much.

we have a airbase in tajikstan which repotedly was suppose tohave mig 29s.

[Rani Lakshmibai]

But isn't Tajikistan a part of the Shanhai Five? Not particularly pro-India.

And you're over-estimating Chinese influence. It's on par with India which is to say not very much.

Why is that? I mean to have a 'string of pearls' line of ports and bases all through the South-east, a port in Gwador, Pakistan and a military pact with Bangladesh makes me think that India is pretty much surrounded by China! And that's not even including talk of bases on Africa's East Coast that completely outclasses us. That's a lot of bases for a country that doesn't have much in the way of influence.

[hammer]

But isn't Tajikistan a part of the Shanhai Five? Not particularly pro-India.

Shangai Five is not against India !! whatever made you think that its a coalition against India ? India has very close relations with Tajikistan.

IAF's base in Tajikistan will be ready by '04

India has mil base in Tajikistan

[Rani Lakshmibai]

Okay, forgive me it is 3:30 AM where I am typing this up, so obviously I must be on drugs or something to sit up this late. I may be imagining it, but it seems that you (Hammer) keep sending in posts even though you are shown as being offline :).

Anyhow, care to tell me more about Tajikistan? I know that it seems to be exporting bases to everyone in existence including the Russians and Americans and probably the Chinese for all I know. Tell me more about the SH5, is it an economic or military co-operative?

And China does not make economic/military pacts that help India. If China's in the SH5, then it's anti-India (meaning that China's gonna try its level best to make sure it prospers while India doesn't within the limits of the treaty).

[hammer]

Anyhow, care to tell me more about Tajikistan? I know that it seems to be exporting bases to everyone in existence including the Russians and Americans and probably the Chinese for all I know.

AFAIK only Russia and India have permanent military bases over there.

Tell me more about the SH5, is it an economic or military co-operative?

The Shanghai Five group will expand its agenda to cover the fight against terrorism, economic ties and humanitarian issues, it was announced here today at the end of a one-day meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the member-states.

Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, who form the Shanghai Five, will sign a treaty on joint struggle against terrorism, separatism and extremism during their coming summit in Shanghai in July, Russia's Foreign Minister, Mr. Igor Ivanov, told reporters after today's meeting.

This will be a major step forward for the Shanghai Five, which was initially set up five years ago to boost border security and reduce troop levels along China's frontiers with the former Soviet republics.

link