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Thread: The need for an Israeli nuclear doctrine

  1. #16
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    From Haaretz article:

    The outlook was grim. Troop losses were high, and ammunition and weapons stores were running out. At one point, Meir blurted out that she had a "crazy idea."

    That idea, however, was not a nuclear attack, but many believe a lightning visit to Washington to meet with U.S. president Richard Nixon. The visit was to be so secret that Meir advocated not even informing the cabinet. Defense minister Moshe Dayan supported her plan, but it was never implemented.
    Let's hope noone gets nukes and those who have them abandon them. I doubt we will live to that day, but one can hope. In the mean time, those unprepared will suffer (as usual)
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  2. #17
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Let's hope the arabs dont get a nuke.There'll be way too many loonies running around with nukes.
    A good thought. Israel for now, is also hoping for the same.

    Now, imagine for a moment just one more country in the ME with a nuke.

    Israel's present configuration is to stop that development at all costs.

    Can they and at what price ? otherwise, what does Israel do ?

    It will be the end of the Begin doctrine as far as nukes go (conventional will stil hold) and they will have to start thinking about the Samson option. They don't want to start this thinking process the day Iran does a test, hypothetically speaking ofc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Time to change the planet,thank you very much.Or rather them do it,coz I like this one.
    Who is going to do this ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    It was Dayan that asked for nukes to be loaded on the bombers,IIRC.The point about '73 is that they don't prevent a war,a conventional defeat(Dayan and Meir changed their mind when the situation stabilized) but also doesn't prevent trigger happy Israelis from getting high in their respective food chain.
    Arabs fought a nuclear power.

    Put it this way Mihais, Israel develops a nuke, shuts up about it, Arabs go to war with Israel, lose, later they sign the NPT, all of them and ratify it. Why ?

    Now we are told if Iran develops a nuke, the Arabs are going to leave the NPT and develop nukes themselves.

    If Israel getting a nuke wasn't enough to give the Arabs pause in the first place why will Iran do it.

    Is it ok for the Arabs that Israel has nukes but not Iran

    cos this sounds like an Israeli narrative to me and not an arab one
    Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Apr 12, at 01:11.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    have they done so recently, though?
    They are to start again in June.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    and what constitutes an activation of the umbrella? one would have thought they'd have done so when the israelis knocked out that reactor. we wouldn't tolerate a strike on an allied nuclear reactor, for instance.
    That wasn't a reactor, at least not one that the Syrians would admit to.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    This does not come as a surprise to me as only two powers are capable of it. Israel is not going to be able to make 10k nukes so they will have to live with some variant of a minimum credible deterrent.
    That's the point. They're deterring no one. The Soviets were ready, able, willing, and apparently wanting to crater all of Israel and Israel could not do a single thing to deter them.

    Even today, Israel has not start training or even preparing their infrastructures against an N5 first strike.

  4. #19
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Council on Foreign Relations, Inc View Post

    Israel was not the first state to acquire nuclear weapons, and given its unique geopolitical concerns, it should not be expected to lead the world into the nuclear-free age. But in order to deal effectively with the new regional nuclear environment and emerging global nuclear norms, Israel must reassess the wisdom of its unwavering commitment to opacity and also recognize that international support for its retaining its military edge, including its nuclear capability, rests on its retaining its moral edge.

    Copyright © 2002-2012 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.
    That's of course assuming that the Samson option is aimed solely or even at all at the capitals of the middle east.

  5. #20
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    Hold on... Russia is going to put nuclear weapons into Syria in June? Sure about that?

  6. #21
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Hold on... Russia is going to put nuclear weapons into Syria in June? Sure about that?
    Tartus

  7. #22
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    On a side note,between the respite offered by the UN deal,the chaos in their ranks and the Russians stepping in,Mr. Assad's downfall may have been greatly exagerrated.Which means the Israelis won't be as able to fly East,but the Iranians won't have a problem sending short range missiles and other assets West.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  8. #23
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post

    cos this sounds like an Israeli narrative to me and not an arab one
    Who said the Arab game is about Israel?It's about the hegemony in the greater ME and the money coming from oil.Israel is a factor,but not the only one and not even the most important.
    Egypt lost nothing,it actually achieved its objective and switched from the Soviet umbrella to the US one in the process.Why bother with nukes and get kicked in the butt by everyone?
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Hold on... Russia is going to put nuclear weapons into Syria in June? Sure about that?
    Soviet SSBNs are resuming patrols in June.

  10. #25
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    A patrol and an unbrella, to my understanding, are different; regime change in Syria will not, of itself, be a problem for Russia, just NATO on the ground there. That I fear they must argue with the Turks who are mumbling about PKK in Syria and the Adana Agreement.

  11. #26
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Who said the Arab game is about Israel?It's about the hegemony in the greater ME and the money coming from oil.Israel is a factor,but not the only one and not even the most important.
    Egypt lost nothing,it actually achieved its objective and switched from the Soviet umbrella to the US one in the process.Why bother with nukes and get kicked in the butt by everyone?
    Did you made two concessions there
    - Arabs do not mind if Israel has nukes. This effectively kills the argument that if Israel has them others have a right as well. Mind you the NPT, already did that but i've heard this argument from those that want to ignore the NPT.

    - Arabs will not go for nukes if Iran does. At least not Egypt.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais
    Which means the Israelis won't be as able to fly East,but the Iranians won't have a problem sending short range missiles and other assets West.
    A partial solution i learned from this article

    As the Iranian regime works hard to get nuclear weapons and missiles capable of carrying them, Israel uses the time to build a multi-level defensive and offensive capability. These layers include:

    - U.S. early warning stations and anti-missile missile installations in the Gulf;
    - Israeli missile-launching submarines;
    - Israeli long-range planes whose crews have rehearsed and planned for strikes at Iranian facilities;
    - different types of anti-missile missiles capable of knocking down the small number of missiles Iran could fire simultaneously;
    - covert operations, possibly including computer viruses and assassinations, to slow down Iran’s development of nuclear weapons;
    - improved intelligence; help to the Iranian opposition (though the idea of “regime change” in the near future is a fantasy); and
    - other measures.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    A patrol and an unbrella, to my understanding, are different;
    Russian SSBNs have never visited countries that they're not protecting.

  13. #28
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Did you made two concessions there
    - Arabs do not mind if Israel has nukes. This effectively kills the argument that if Israel has them others have a right as well. Mind you the NPT, already did that but i've heard this argument from those that want to ignore the NPT.
    Concede what exactly?That Arab don't need nukes?

    Nukes are defensive weapons.Israel was not marching towards Mecca.Iran is or will be.So against Israel there's no need to build them.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  14. #29
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Concede what exactly?That Arab don't need nukes?

    Nukes are defensive weapons.Israel was not marching towards Mecca.

    So against Israel there's no need to build them.
    ok, that's one

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Iran is or will be.[marching towards Mecca]
    How did you get this idea ?

  15. #30
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Based on history,geopolitics and interests.Iran may manage to control the area or not,but it will try.

    I don't recall saying the Arabs needed nukes against Israel so I don't see what I conceded.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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