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U.S. May Sanction India Over Level of Iran-Oil Imports

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    Pretty much what i said earlier.


    Yes until i read that countries might get sanctioned. Is this just a general way of saying the above or something extra ?
    Don't read too much into it.

    Why the talk about sanctions at all. Note how he mentions refiners. Regardless of which banks we use the above statement still holds true.
    Mark Dubowitz is a nobody to New Delhi.
    Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
    -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Tronic View Post
      Don't read too much into it.
      Same applies to New Delhi, because i've noticed a pattern of saying one thing and doing another.

      I would like to believe they know what they are doing and just pre-empting the opposition from accusing them of bowing to foreign dictates.

      Originally posted by Tronic View Post
      Mark Dubowitz is a nobody to New Delhi.
      Shooting the messenger :)

      Is what he said relevant or not. I don't know whether he is talking in general or being specific, guess we will have to wait for more reports to get a better idea.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Mar 12,, 10:47.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Shooting the messenger :)

        Is what he said relevant or not. I don't know whether he is talking in general or being specific, guess we will have to wait for more reports to get a better idea.
        He is an advisor to Obama if I'm correct. What you quoted before is his own personal viewpoint, not the American administrations. Yes, it will be an issue if the American government takes his stance, but until than, no one in New Delhi will be loosing any sleep over Mark Dubowitz's opinion.
        Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
        -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

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        • #19
          What confuses me is he talks about 'country sanctions' as opposed to sanctioning only those banks that trade with Iran's central bank.

          What is the american position here ?

          Now if it turns out he got it wrong nobody need care but otherwise...

          I'm attaching signficance to WHAT was said rather than WHO said it.

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          • #20
            "Sir, Maybe I should have phrased it biggest 'supporter' ?"

            Gotta do what you think is best. So do we. India is no supporter of anything but India, in the narrowest of interests. Energy pricing is important to your economy. So too customers. The silly sleigh-of-hand banking ploys are widely reported. I doubt they've been missed by our experts. Diplomacy and economic sanctions are preferred to war but it's narrowly-interpreted self-interests like this that may, in fact, bring about war.

            It's really about putting your money where your mouth is.

            India deserves no special exemption, especially in light of American efforts to act as India's interlocutor regarding replaced oil. Neither does S. Korea. We're a big market. Attract the ire of the U.S. Congress and this tempest in a tea-pot may actually boil over. Who might be more pained is anybody's guess without knowing how far and what terms might transpire but it bodes well for nobody but Iran.

            What would you pay for oil from other sources? What from Iran? What would you lose if choosing Iran, especially as a point of pride? The math, to those in-the-know, is probably really simple. We'll make sure you've all the information necessary for a prudent decision. After that, the ball's in your court.
            "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
            "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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            • #21
              And to add to what S2 said, there's this question. Does India not appreciate the purpose of the sanctions levied against Iran? Judging from the comments by some of our good Indian friends here, should the sanctions on Iran fail and India did not participate in them, India will be content.
              To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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              • #22
                Originally posted by S2 View Post
                The silly sleigh-of-hand banking ploys are widely reported. I doubt they've been missed by our experts. Diplomacy and economic sanctions are preferred to war but it's narrowly-interpreted self-interests like this that may, in fact, bring about war.
                Steve,

                I disagree that India's banking transactions with Iran are silly or a 'ploy'. India has been very consistent that they will only oblige to UN sanctions, not American. They have made no secret of dealing with Iran through the most logical routes available. Logical.

                As for narrowly-interpreted self-interests, the fact is not forgotten that while Pakistan was building it's own nuclear bombs, America was not only funding and arming that state but also funding a dangerous radical right wing Islamist ideology right in India's backyard. Soviets may have been your enemies, they were not ours. Our enemies are the radical right wing Islamists which threaten the social fabric of the country. Narrowly-interpreted self-interests or a differing worldview?


                India deserves no special exemption, especially in light of American efforts to act as India's interlocutor regarding replaced oil. Neither does S. Korea. We're a big market. Attract the ire of the U.S. Congress and this tempest in a tea-pot may actually boil over. Who might be more pained is anybody's guess without knowing how far and what terms might transpire but it bodes well for nobody but Iran.

                What would you pay for oil from other sources? What from Iran? What would you lose if choosing Iran, especially as a point of pride? The math, to those in-the-know, is probably really simple. We'll make sure you've all the information necessary for a prudent decision. After that, the ball's in your court.
                As GoI has already made it clear, we don't have a choice. You have been in Afghanistan for slightly more than a decade and you dished out billions to Pakistan despite the obvious double game, simply to have logistical access to Afghanistan. You have the luxury of walking out of the region, we don't. Iran is a major ally and our only feasible route to Afghanistan, and you want India to abandon this, even after seeing how tightly your own government has clung onto Pakistan for all these decades?

                In a different thread, you suggested Canada as an alternative energy market for India rather than Afghanistan. Are you suggesting that we dump Afghanistan? IMO, that is a lack of understanding of India's issue with Talibanization within its region. Energy or no energy, Afghanistan is a very important nation for India because of the threat from radical right wing ideology. If not checked in Afghanistan, it is only a stone's throw away from India. It will not bode well for India's social fabric.


                At the end of the day, every nation has the right to look after it's own interests. America has been doing no different. Therefore if America sees it fit to hit India with sanctions than it is rightfully it's own choice. There is not much closely aligned history of the US and India for Indians to feel betrayed or a sense of entitlement from the US which your decades old allies, such as the Pakistanis may express. Due to the turbulent Indo-US history, most Indians are skeptical of all deals with the US for the simple reason that they are always expecting to be hit by American sanctions anyways!
                Last edited by Tronic; 17 Mar 12,, 08:07.
                Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
                -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by JAD_333 View Post
                  And to add to what S2 said, there's this question. Does India not appreciate the purpose of the sanctions levied against Iran? Judging from the comments by some of our good Indian friends here, should the sanctions on Iran fail and India did not participate in them, India will be content.
                  Who gives a shit about whether India appreciates the sanctions levied against Iran according to US? India asked the US to listen regarding Pakistan and US did not listen or heed India's requests. Why should India listen to US then regarding Iran?

                  This is a case of "Do as I say, not do as I do."

                  US cannot unilaterally tell India which countries to trade to and not to. Only India can tell India which countries to trade to. Fine, if US wants to punish India, well then India can punish US as well. US is not that important as she thinks as she be.

                  India has told US the conditions for India not to trade with Iran and that is an UN approved sanction. If US cannot get that, well tough shit. If US can get that, then India will adhere to UN sanctions.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
                    Fine, if US wants to punish India, well then India can punish US as well. US is not that important as she thinks as she be.
                    The US economy is 8 times the size of the Indian economy, it would be unfair to equate the two. The US can do much more damage in many important industrial sectors of India.

                    That said, it does not make sense for GoI to follow another country's law. It is totally against India's independent foreign policy. Apart from UN sanctions, India has no obligations to stop trading with another nation.
                    Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
                    -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by JAD_333 View Post
                      And to add to what S2 said, there's this question. Does India not appreciate the purpose of the sanctions levied against Iran? Judging from the comments by some of our good Indian friends here, should the sanctions on Iran fail and India did not participate in them, India will be content.
                      Not if failure of sanctions leads to a war.

                      So long as your president says all options remain on the table the possibility of war cannot be ruled out. Note i use the word possibility as opposed to likelihood. The latter has been grist for numerous threads here and will continue to do so.

                      Very simply, if a war breaks out and Asia has not adequately transitioned over to other suppliers where does it leave them. One could say but a war cannot break out until that point is reached anyway. That only applies if the war gets a pass from the UN. But as we've found out there is no legal barrier to waging a war with Iran. There is no requirement that it go through the UN. So there is a risk with not complying with these sanctions.

                      What i think is holding back UN sanctions isn't so much the unwillingness of Asian countries to cooperate but rather their unpreparedness to do so at this point in time. This implies the chances of UN sanctions increase as time goes forward.

                      Again, US might or might not want to wait that long so the earlier point holds.

                      The question really is how much of a hit can India & China endure to their economies as a result of non-delivery or Iranian oil due to war.

                      I don't see this exclusively as US-India but rather US-Asia. India is just one of the numerous countries concerned. China is even more in demand for Iranian oil than India is The US message to all of these countries is the same. To work with all of them to help them transition over or to reach a sufficient point where interruption can be borne without too much damage.

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                      • #26
                        Tronic Reply

                        "...They have made no secret of dealing with Iran through the most logical routes available. Logical..."

                        Then, logically, it's for America to close a loophole violating the spirit of the sanctions.

                        "...America was not only funding and arming that state but also funding a dangerous radical right wing Islamist ideology right in India's backyard. Soviets may have been your enemies, they were not ours. Our enemies are the radical right wing Islamists which threaten the social fabric of the country. Narrowly-interpreted self-interests or a differing worldview..?

                        Different worldview. You lay the raising and arming of the mujahideen at our feet? This is a common-enough diversion of the truth (Pakistanis play this same card at convenience) but the Afghan mujahideen had a broad consensus of support manifested tangibly in aid from a variety of nations. That mujahideen notably held forces that were NOT India's enemies unless you'd suggest the likes of Ahmad Shah Massoud was a likely candidate for talibanization.

                        Of course you know this.

                        That Pakistan built bombs can be something to which an Indian might hardly protest. Whether because of America, the PRC, Pakistan or all three it was India altering the nuclear landscape although you'd remained undefeated in conventional combat with Pakistan.

                        "As GoI has already made it clear, we don't have a choice. You have been in Afghanistan for slightly more than a decade and you dished out billions to Pakistan despite the obvious double game, simply to have logistical access to Afghanistan. You have the luxury of walking out of the region, we don't. Iran is a major ally and our only feasible route to Afghanistan..."

                        Iran's possession of a nuclear capability and its relationship with Afghanistan are un-related. Whether Iran possesses a nuclear weapon or otherwise, they'll continue to possess plenty of enmity towards a Pashtun-dominated Afghan government-whether Karzai's or the taliban.

                        By itself, that enmity won't assure Indian access to Afghanistan. India, meanwhile, has piggybacked on the efforts of ISAF for a decade. Do you suggest the Indian government shall take over the post-ISAF security responsibilities for the Karzai regime? If so, I don't believe you. Further, without doing so there'll be no Indian access through Iran or any other direction with a taliban government or a Karzai-led Afghan government subordinate to Islamabad.

                        Still, this is an important point illustrating India's choices. Can India gain access to Afghanistan and must it do so immediately given the regional uncertainty surrounding Afghanistan? If so, what has India done to prepare the way for an immense role that must be immediately assumed to be effective and can only be viewed as a direct threat to Islamabad? Have forces been identified and alerted for deployment within the next year?

                        Of course not.

                        Still, as I mentioned earlier, the calculus is simple. You must weigh what's important for India while accepting the consequences. I doubt India shall be permitted to have its cake while eating it too.

                        "...you want India to abandon this, even after seeing how tightly your own government has clung onto Pakistan for all these decades..?"

                        Odd, Pakistanis would argue otherwise, pointing to "abandonment" by America in the nineties as a response to their nuclear program. Please. If your region, at least portray events as they've happened.

                        "...every nation has the right to look after it's own interests. America has been doing no different."

                        I beg to differ. There is a coalition of nations opposed to Iranian nuclear weapons capability. They are very, very real. My guess is that India shall find itself staring at sanctions from more than one direction.

                        Evidently, to judge by this thread, our economic relationships matter very little. I guess we'll see.
                        "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                        "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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                        • #27
                          Just to reinforce a point to our Indian friends that this isn't just a U.S. thingy-

                          Global Network Expels as Many as 30 of Iran’s Banks in Move to Isolate Its Economy-NYT March 15, 2012
                          "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                          "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Indian payment for Iranian oil goes through Turkish banks. Would US sanction Turkey/ Turkish banks as well?

                            India is now investing the payment by building infrastructure in Iran.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by S2 View Post
                              Just to reinforce a point to our Indian friends that this isn't just a U.S. thingy-

                              Global Network Expels as Many as 30 of Iran’s Banks in Move to Isolate Its Economy-NYT March 15, 2012
                              But Sir, I beg to differ .. The USA was the sole reason why there is a situation like this.. Because of USA's political clout EU followed the suit.

                              I also have a doubt here sir, When Bush declared war on Iraq stating Saddam had Chemical weapons the world knows what happened. Now Why can't this be a wrong move again by Obama ??

                              Lets say Iran IS enriching Uranium for Nuclear warheads , If USA can pile Nuclear warheads why can't some other country for it's own safety and Interests ??? Iran maybe a Islamist country that doesn't mean they are going to go insane and attack neighboring countries with Nukes when especially Israel is around with alleged Nuclear weapons. If USA is concerned why can't stick it up with Pakistan first ?? Why don't it impose sanctions on Pakistani Banks ??? If USA is concerned that Islamist terrorist groups MIGHT gain access to Nukes by means of Iran , there is as much possibility that the Nukes in Pakistan can fall in the hands of Islamist terror groups too .. What does Obama's office has to say about this ???
                              Last edited by commander; 17 Mar 12,, 15:51.

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by commander View Post
                                Lets say Iran IS enriching Uranium for Nuclear warheads , If USA can pile Nuclear warheads why can't some other country for it's own safety and Interests ???
                                I'm getting sick and tired of repeating this line.

                                BECAUSE IRAN, OF HER OWN FREE WILL UP TO AND INCLUDING THE CLERICS, SIGNED, RATIFIED, AND STATED THAT THEY WILL HONOUR THE NPT!

                                IRAN HAS NO RIGHTS TO NUKE. NONE. NADDA. ZILCH!

                                She wants nukes. She leaves the NPT. She will NOT BE ALLOWED TO GET THEM WHILE UNDER THE NPT!

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