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What if the San Francisco Treaty doesn't work?

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  • What if the San Francisco Treaty doesn't work?

    There's a pretty good reason why the intelligent TI people stopped babbling about the RoC being an illegitimate government a long time a ago.

    The Treaty of Friendship between Japan and the People's Republic of China states in Article I,
    Recalling with satisfaction that since the Government of Japan and the Government of the People's Republic of China issued a Joint Communique in Peking on September 29, 1972, the friendly relations between the two Governments and the peoples of the two countries have developed greatly on a new basis.

    Confirming that the above-mentioned Joint Communique constitutes the basis of the relations of peace and friendship between the two countries and that the principles enunciated in the Joint Communique should be strictly observed.
    MOFA: TREATY OF PEACE AND FRIENDSHIP BETWEEN JAPAN AND THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

    Which leads to the Joint Communique of the Government of Japan and the Government of the People's Republic of China, which states;
    3. The Government of the People's Republic of China reiterates that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the People's Republic of China. The Government of Japan fully understands and respects this stand of the Government of the People's Republic of China, and it firmly maintains its stand under Article 8 of the Postsdam Proclamation.
    MOFA: Joint Communique of the Government of Japan and the Government of the People's Republic of China

    So Japan recognizes the Potsdam Proclamation, which states in its Article 8,
    The terms of the Cairo Declaration shall be carried out and Japanese sovereignty shall be limited to the islands of Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku and such minor islands as we determine.
    Potsdam Declaration | Birth of the Constitution of Japan

    And the Cairo Declaration says
    The Three Great Allies are fighting this war to restrain and punish the aggression of Japan. They covet no gain for themselves and have no thought of territorial expansion. It is their purpose that Japan shall be stripped of all the islands in the Pacific which she has seized or occupied since the beginning of the first World War in 1914, and that all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria, Formosa, and The Pescadores, shall be restored to the Republic of China. Japan will also be expelled from all other territories which she has taken by violence and greed. The aforesaid three great powers, mindful of the enslavement of the people of Korea, are determined that in due course Korea shall become free and independent.
    [Cairo Communiqué](Text) | Birth of the Constitution of Japan

    So let's say that the ROC leaves Taiwan (don't ask me how and where to). Taiwan doesn't just become terra nullius. Japan has clearly recognized the legitimacy of the Potsdam and Cairo Declaration, and by doing so, signed over the whole thing to the PRC, as the Joint Communique states that the PRC is the only government of China, so anything the RoC held under Cairo and Potsdam naturally goes to Beijing. I would expect the 15 ABC to be marching down Chongqing Road any moment, then. :pop:

  • #2
    Doesn't matter. As the Great Comrade himself, the late Mao Zedong, said, "Power flows from the barrel of a gun." Or "Might makes right." As long as Taiwan is actively resisting PRC, PRC has no legitimacy claims over Taiwan. Taiwan is a full functioning independent state with its own armed forces, treasury, economy, and etc. It is just legal fiction that Taiwan is not independent. Repeat, rinse, and repeat, "China has no de facto sovereignty or control over Taiwan."

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
      Doesn't matter. As the Great Comrade himself, the late Mao Zedong, said, "Power flows from the barrel of a gun." Or "Might makes right." As long as Taiwan is actively resisting PRC, PRC has no legitimacy claims over Taiwan. Taiwan is a full functioning independent state with its own armed forces, treasury, economy, and etc. It is just legal fiction that Taiwan is not independent. Repeat, rinse, and repeat, "China has no de facto sovereignty or control over Taiwan."
      The ROC is. Taiwan, as understood by the "native Taiwanese", is not.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
        The ROC is. Taiwan, as understood by the "native Taiwanese", is not.
        Then the issue is with the Taiwanese people not between PRC and ROC. PRC can do diddly squat if the Taiwanese people decide to go independent and call themselves as Taiwanese.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
          Then the issue is with the Taiwanese people not between PRC and ROC. PRC can do diddly squat if the Taiwanese people decide to go independent and call themselves as Taiwanese.
          Then the PRC will resolve the issue by the force of arms. The "native Taiwanese" cannot claim to be an independent nation after WWII directly from the moment Japan surrendered, as there clearly is no legal claim for self determination, and as you said possession is nine tenths of the law, hence the RoC, not some fictional Republic of Taiwan, is the clear possessor of Taiwan island and its environs.

          As shown in the Sino-Japanese treaty, there is no room for any sort of conspiracy nut theory allowing Japan to take control again (this is coming off another thread with regards to another tangent, so not directed at you, Blademaster).

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
            Then the PRC will resolve the issue by the force of arms. The "native Taiwanese" cannot claim to be an independent nation after WWII directly from the moment Japan surrendered, as there clearly is no legal claim for self determination, and as you said possession is nine tenths of the law, hence the RoC, not some fictional Republic of Taiwan, is the clear possessor of Taiwan island and its environs.

            As shown in the Sino-Japanese treaty, there is no room for any sort of conspiracy nut theory allowing Japan to take control again (this is coming off another thread with regards to another tangent, so not directed at you, Blademaster).
            You are misunderstanding my point. It is not the Japanese, the Chinese, nor the UN or US for that matter and neither the ROC or even history that determines the independence of the nation. It is the people of Taiwan, the Taiwanese people that determines it, the people who makes up the Taiwan's military force. It is that military force and the will of the people that has kept Taiwan free of the clutches of PRC. It is the will of the people that PRC can continue to make paper claims that Taiwan is part of China. The day that the people decides that Taiwan is no longer part of China, officially or unofficially is the day that PRC realizes she can't do anything about it except through force and based on the geography and the armed forces' capabilities on both sides, it is very highly unlikely that PRC can ever hope to capture Taiwan. The Taiwanese people know this and guess what? So do the PLA, PLAN, and PLAAF.

            The reality is that the people of Taiwan hold the decision in their hands, not Beijing, New York, Washington, D.C., or Toyko.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
              You are misunderstanding my point. It is not the Japanese, the Chinese, nor the UN or US for that matter and neither the ROC or even history that determines the independence of the nation. It is the people of Taiwan, the Taiwanese people that determines it, the people who makes up the Taiwan's military force. It is that military force and the will of the people that has kept Taiwan free of the clutches of PRC. It is the will of the people that PRC can continue to make paper claims that Taiwan is part of China. The day that the people decides that Taiwan is no longer part of China, officially or unofficially is the day that PRC realizes she can't do anything about it except through force and based on the geography and the armed forces' capabilities on both sides, it is very highly unlikely that PRC can ever hope to capture Taiwan. The Taiwanese people know this and guess what? So do the PLA, PLAN, and PLAAF.

              The reality is that the people of Taiwan hold the decision in their hands, not Beijing, New York, Washington, D.C., or Toyko.
              On the other hand, the people of Taiwan show about as much desire to pay the price of war as the Israelis are willing to engage in a nuclear exchange with Russia to stop Moscow's support for Tehran and Damascus. Thus while the status quo of China not being involved in running affairs on Taiwan is likely to persist for a very long time, Taiwan as an actual nation state will most likely not come into being because China's military capability has essentially tied the hands of the people of Taiwan with regards to that option.

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              • #8
                No it hasn't. Taiwan has the military capability to break away from China and China cannot do anything about it short of nukes, which she would be crazy to use. In any military conflict, China will lose and PRC knows it. Hence, PRC is employing soft power to win hearts and minds of the people of Taiwan.

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                • #9
                  It is not that simply as Taiwanese vs PRC: Republic of China is currently lead by a leader of the KMT who wants reunification if conditions (political and economic) in the PRC are improved. As a democracy, there are certain percentage who agree with him and there are certain percentage who disagree --it is not either or not but both. The military of ROC swore to defend Republic of China, never Republic of Taiwan, think about that.
                  “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
                    No it hasn't. Taiwan has the military capability to break away from China and China cannot do anything about it short of nukes, which she would be crazy to use. In any military conflict, China will lose and PRC knows it. Hence, PRC is employing soft power to win hearts and minds of the people of Taiwan.
                    Despite expressing rather high levels of support for independence, the Taiwanese have shown little stomach for military confrontation with China*, which they know would result if they declared an actual "Republic of Taiwan". China is unable to take Taiwan under any realistic scenario, but it can already inflict enough pain to make the Taiwanese stay with the status quo.

                    *As seen in years of flat defense spending and the desire to do away with conscription. ROK and Israel, in contrast, face far less serious military imbalances but they're more militarized than Taiwan.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
                      *As seen in years of flat defense spending and the desire to do away with conscription. ROK and Israel, in contrast, face far less serious military imbalances but they're more militarized than Taiwan.
                      That's because they don't have the great equalizer that Taiwan have: the Taiwan straits teeming with sharks waiting for the first boatload of victims. Taiwan has the capability to turn the Taiwan Straits into a million man swim and the PLA and PLAN knows it.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
                        That's because they don't have the great equalizer that Taiwan have: the Taiwan straits teeming with sharks waiting for the first boatload of victims. Taiwan has the capability to turn the Taiwan Straits into a million man swim and the PLA and PLAN knows it.
                        No, not really, and I served in the ROC navy, it doesn't have that capacity right now, potentially it could, but really that is unlikely unless the US give us a free go, and we're not Isreal (in the sense of US favortism). There were several attempts of gonig Nuclear during the Chang era and were all shot down not by the PRC, not by the USSR, but by the CIA.

                        In theory, the PRC can't win right now because by the time they mobilize enough force the US would have long had enough time to put all their fleets in place and the ROC could already mobilize a rather large army (most likely much larger than their landing party) and their sudden strike capacity is way too limited to risk, at best they might be able to land something like 10-15k men into Taiwan with no heavy equipment and they'll have about 5-7 days to take Taiwan with unreliable logistics and not total air superiority, even the best US troops would find that to be mission impossible with that sort of restriction.

                        But this is assuming the US is in on it. if they're not, all China have to do is to pass a killer sanction through the UN (assuming the US turns a blind eye) and Taiwan is done, we can not maintiain mobilization mode forever , and with that sanction inplace the PRC don't even need a military blockade or any mobilziation, we'll just collapse on ourself, it's only a matter of how long we could hold out.

                        From a realpolitik geopolitical view, we're essentially the pawn of the US right now, used to keep the PRC in check, keeping an ambiguous status means that we can't shake the US control, the only possible way out would be if the PRC either give up taking Taiwan (which is essentially political suicide not just for whoever making that decision, but the entire CCP). or if the ROC and PRC work together, but then we really just switch to become the pawn of the PRC.

                        So our space of manuver is extremely limited, right now we really just hope to strengthen ties with the PRC so that the US sway over us isn't total, and that the PRC's threat is less pronounced, but there's a great deal of limitation to that, and really, we don't hate the PRC tehse days or anything, but we don't see much good reason to give up defecto soverignty to the PRC, the status quo is annoying but not entirely bad for us either. being part of the PRC now would likely only intensify potentil conflict of interest between China and the US, and we'll be screwed even more if that happens.
                        Last edited by RollingWave; 15 Mar 12,, 10:58.

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                        • #13
                          RollingWave, (you by any chance, a surfer?)

                          ROC still has the artillery. There is only one direction that the landing party of PLAN could come and that is coming from the west. You can station your artillery and rain steel on the landing beaches and on the ships supporting the forced beach entry. PLA and PLAN do not have enough maritime helicopters or airlift to overwhelm Taiwan's defensive AAs or flak. You do not need ships to really defend your island. After all, your island is the unsinkable aircraft carrier or battleship. You just need mobile launchers with anti-shipping missiles and good AEWC and maritime surveillance coverage and targeting. Just the addition of 6 to 8 E-3s and 14 P-8s with C3I&S coverage and 1000 Exocets or Harpoons are good enough to deter the PLAN. Your air force is adequate to turn away the PLAAF and PLAN's air arm (you have enough BVR capable planes). PLAN does not even come close to the capability that US had in WW2 to retake Formosa.

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                          • #14
                            Blademaster,

                            Well, the PLA can hurt Taiwan in a lot of other ways that doesn't necessitate a landing (and precluding US involvement, of course). For instance, they could declare a quarantine/blockade around Taiwan (maybe a pretense of searching for nuclear materials, ha). A blockade doesn't have to be complete, it just has to hurt Taiwan badly enough so that the prospect of one has some meaningful deterrent value in regards to Taiwanese politics.

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                            • #15
                              a PLAN blockade won't work if USN gets involved. Besides, USA won't let Taiwan get blockaded. Taiwan is just too valuable to US economy. Any embargo or sanctions by China can be easily withstood by Taiwan.

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