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What if the San Francisco Treaty doesn't work?

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  • #16
    BM,

    Taiwan is just too valuable to US economy.
    that's not true.

    economic considerations here are secondary to political considerations. if taiwan was to invite a PRC blockade through unilateral declaration of independence, IMHO-- no way the US will intervene.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    • #17
      Originally posted by astralis View Post
      BM,



      that's not true.

      economic considerations here are secondary to political considerations. if taiwan was to invite a PRC blockade through unilateral declaration of independence, IMHO-- no way the US will intervene.
      And the business lobby and conservatives would create a backlash and pressure to convince the leadership to intervene on Taiwan's side. Taiwan cannot initiate hostilities by violence. But it is allowed to declare independence peacefully.

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      • #18
        BM:

        A long standoff with China would hurt the US economy even more. China could probably withstand it better than the US because nationalistic fevor would be on their side in such events and if the event threaten to fully escalate, it is completely against the US interest to break the status quo. they could choose to fight a war with China that even assuming they win, would have disastorous repercussion to their entire global strategy. or they could choose to let them do whatever they want with Taiwan, which would almost certainly hurt far less in the shorter / medium run.

        You are again, assuming that the US MUST / 100% will come to Taiwan's aid no matter what, that's just not true, that isn't even surely true for Israel. let alone Taiwan. and we are on our own, there are so many ways the PRC can go with that military capacity is hardly even relavent. as I pointed out, a simple sanction would already do. if they really want to go the military rout then what your missing is that they have much larger industrial capacity than we could ever hope to match. and wether though attrition or simply a combination of ballistic missile / air strike it's really only a matter of time before they have total air superiority, and when they have that, all the artillery in the world won't do jack.

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