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  • U.S. military says Taliban set to retake power: report

    So where are the sanctions, terminating visas, threats of military force :whome:

    U.S. military says Taliban set to retake power: report

    U.S. military says Taliban set to retake power: report | Reuters
    LONDON | Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:22pm EST

    (Reuters) - The United States military has said in a secret report that the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, are set to retake control over Afghanistan after NATO-led forces withdraw from the country, Britain's Times of London newspaper said Wednesday.

    "Many Afghans are already bracing themselves for an eventual return of the Taliban," the newspaper said, quoting the report. "Once ISAF (NATO-led forces) is no longer a factor, Taliban consider their victory inevitable," it quoted the report.

    The Times said the "highly classified" report was put together by the U.S. military at Bagram air base in Afghanistan for top NATO officers last month. The BBC also carried a report on the leaked document.

    Large swathes of Afghanistan have already been handed back to Afghan security forces, with the last foreign combat troops due to leave by the end of 2014.

    The document cited by the Times and the BBC also stated that Pakistan's powerful security agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was assisting the Taliban in directing attacks against foreign forces -- a charge denied by Islamabad.

    Washington and its allies have long complained that the Taliban and other Islamist and criminal groups operate out of safe havens in tribal areas in Pakistan's west and northwest.

    The document's findings were based on interrogations of more than 4,000 Taliban and al Qaeda detainees, the Times said, adding however it identified only few individual insurgents.

    A State Department spokesman and Britain's Foreign Office both declined comment on the report. NATO and Pakistani officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

    Despite the presence of about 100,000 foreign troops, violence in Afghanistan is at its worst since the Taliban were ousted by U.S.-backed Afghan forces in 2001, according to the United Nations.

    The NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) says levels of violence are falling.

    Citing the same report, the BBC reported on its website (here)

    that Pakistan and the ISI knew the locations of senior Taliban leaders and supported the expulsion of "foreign invaders from Afghanistan."

    "Senior Taliban leaders meet regularly with ISI personnel, who advise on strategy and relay any pertinent concerns of the government of Pakistan," it said.

    Pentagon officials said they had not seen the reports and could not comment on their specifics.

    But Pentagon spokesman George Little said: "We have long been concerned about ties between elements of the ISI and some extremist networks."

    Little said U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta "has also been clear that he believes that the safe havens in Pakistan remain a serious problem and need to be addressed by Pakistani authorities."

    The Times said in its report the document suggested the Taliban were gaining in popularity partly because the austere Islamist movement was becoming more tolerant.

    It quoted the report: "It remains to be seen whether a revitalized, more progressive Taliban will endure if they continue to gain power and popularity. Regardless, at least within the Taliban, the refurbished image is already having a positive effect on morale."

    (Reporting by Stephen Mangan; addtional reporting by Missy Ryan in WASHINGTON; Editing by Paul Tait and Sanjeev Miglani)
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

  • #2
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

    Comment


    • #3
      Similar to S2 reaction:



      Who would ever have imagined such a scenario!!!!

      Regards

      Arty
      "Admit nothing, deny everything, make counter-accusations".- Motto of the Gun Crew who have just done something incredibly stupid!!!!

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      • #4
        Who would have thought the Taliban would have the audacity to resume where they left off 10 yrs ago. Did it really need a think-tank to work this out.

        Comment


        • #5
          Sir,this is the real disease of this endeavour.Too few doers and too many paper pushers,hot air breathers and generally speaking do nothings in the FOB's at the cost of 1 million/year.

          Better results can still be obtained with a few dedicated men gone native,intel support,a few tons of ammo delivered daily at Bagram and liberal ROE's.
          Those who know don't speak
          He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

          Comment


          • #6
            Sounds like the drones will get lots of practice.
            Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

            Comment


            • #7
              no they wont.


              actually taliban take over wont be such a bad thing, at least during taliban rule opium production was minimal, compared to any period of time before or after, opium production has been on the rise since 2001.
              taliban's war on drugs was a lot more effective than us war on drugs, i wonder why, maybe they were determined to get rid of drugs, not fight the war.
              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_p...in_Afghanistan
              Last edited by omon; 01 Feb 12,, 20:16.
              "Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!" B. Franklin

              Comment


              • #8
                actually taliban take over wont be such a bad thing, at least during taliban rule opium production was minimal, compared to any period of time before or after, opium production has been on the rise since 2001.
                They only cut production because their warehouses were stuffed full of product which wasn't moving - they created an artificial supply problem to increase prices.
                To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by troung View Post
                  They only cut production because their warehouses were stuffed full of product which wasn't moving - they created an artificial supply problem to increase prices.
                  Source?
                  sigpic

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Opium: uncovering the politics of the poppy pages 52-54

                    Opium essentially was their number one revenue source domestically. They grew so much they couldn't sell it and thus created an artificial "shortage".

                    So not only will opium keep being grown but they will set up shop again.


                    February 1, 2012 7:05 PM

                    U.S. report: Taliban's strength, resolve intact

                    By
                    David Martin

                    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_16...esolve-intact/

                    As U.S. makes first moves toward leaving Afghanistan, intelligence report finds Taliban far from a vanquished opponent.

                    As U.S. makes first moves toward leaving Afghanistan, intelligence report finds Taliban far from a vanquished opponent. (CBS News)
                    (CBS News)

                    The combat role for U.S. troops in Afghanistan U.S. combat role in Afghanistan to end in '13" >may end a full year earlier than expected. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said that on Wednesday for the first time on behalf of the administration to reporters traveling on board his airplane heading to Europe.

                    Secretary Panetta said: "Hopefully by the mid to the latter part of 2013, we'll be able to make a transition from a combat role to a training, advise and assist role."

                    U.S. forces are due to remain in Afghanistan through 2014. Panetta did not suggest Americans would be coming home any sooner.

                    The U.S. goal is to keep the Taliban from returning to power. But in another development Wednesday, CBS News national security correspondent David Martin tells us a U.S. military report says the administration's goal may be out of reach.

                    The report -- classified secret and titled "State of the Taliban 2012" -- makes for discouraging reading to anyone who thinks the Taliban is a spent force. Based on interviews with Taliban and al Qaeda prisoners, it states that "though the Taliban suffered severely in 2011, its strength, motivation, funding and tactical proficiency remain intact."

                    Prisoners, of course, are not the most reliable of sources. But the sheer weight of numbers -- 27,000 interrogations of more than 4,000 prisoners held at Parwan prison in Afghanistan -- gives the report the ring of truth. The prisoners acknowledged that they lost ground in the south of Afghanistan and are no match for American troops. But U.S. force levels are going down from a high of 100,000 to the current 89,000, to 68,000 by September.

                    And the prisoners say they are encouraged to fight on by America's supposed ally Pakistan and its intelligence service known as ISI.

                    As the report puts it, "ISI officers tout the need for continued jihad and expulsion of foreign invaders from Afghanistan... ISI is thoroughly aware of Taliban activities and the whereabouts of all senior Taliban personnel. Senior Taliban leaders meet regularly with ISI personnel, who advise on strategy..."

                    Report shows Taliban POWs convinced of victory

                    A captured al Qaeda commander put it more bluntly: "Pakistan knows everything. They control everything. I can't (go to the bathroom) without them watching."

                    If there's any encouraging news in this document, it's that the Taliban believes al Qaeda is indeed a spent force and doesn't work with them much anymore.
                    They will simply drag the talks out and wait the US out as we are tying ourselves to peace talks just like forty years ago while setting a deadline for the withdrawal of considerable numbers of our troops.

                    Taliban Deny They Are Ready for Afghan Peace Talks
                    http://abcnews.go.com/International/...e#.TynYqlZ-fqI
                    By DEB RIECHMANN Associated Press
                    KABUL, Afghanistan February 1, 2012 (AP)

                    The Taliban dismissed reports they are preparing to talk peace with the Afghan government, and a NATO report leaked Wednesday shows captured insurgents full of confidence they will seize power after international troops leave.

                    While both were setbacks to President Hamid Karzai's quest to broker peace with the Taliban, his government got a big boost from Pakistan's top diplomat who declared her nation's support for an Afghan-led reconciliation process.

                    Still, steps toward finding a political resolution to the 10-year-old war continue to be bogged down in discussions among the U.S. and its partners over venues, agendas and conflicting interests.

                    Pakistan's Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said she was visiting Kabul to deliver the strong message that Pakistan would stand behind any peace initiative that was widely supported by all ethnic groups in Afghanistan.

                    "Our only prerequisite to be supportive of an initiative is that it should be Afghan-led," she said. "It should be Afghan-owned. It should be Afghan-driven and Afghan-backed."

                    She said the Afghans should determine the way forward and then nations in the region and the greater international community should back the plan.

                    "This is the way the direction should be seen, rather than the other way around where others determine the direction, and the Afghans, we feel, are sometimes left to follow," she said.
                    null
                    AP
                    Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, left, head of the... View Full Caption

                    While she didn't mention the United States, Afghan officials have complained privately that the peace effort has so far been dominated by American efforts and U.S. talks with Taliban representatives. Rumors have swirled for days that Karzai's government was seeking direct talks with the Taliban in Saudi Arabia — a move seen as Karzai's attempt to take charge of the peace effort.

                    A statement Wednesday from Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid rejected those reports as "baseless."

                    The Taliban calls the Afghan government a puppet regime. The insurgency, however, has agreed to set up a political office in the Gulf state of Qatar and has acknowledged having preliminary discussions with the U.S.

                    "Before the negotiation phase, there should be trust-building between the sides, which has not started yet," Mujahid said.

                    U.S. intelligence officials acknowledged Tuesday that to build trust with the Taliban, the United States may release several Afghan Taliban prisoners from the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. No decision has been made.

                    Karzai was angry that Qatar had agreed to host a Taliban political office without fully consulting his government, according to a senior Afghan official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the issue publicly. Karzai prefers Saudi Arabia or Turkey, where he believes he would have the upper hand in guiding the talks, the official said. The Afghan government fears that the U.S., eager to wrap up a decade in Afghanistan, will try to impose a political settlement with the Taliban, the official said.

                    Marc Grossman, the special U.S. envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, says the U.S. is only taking steps to help Afghans talk directly with Afghans. He told Pakistan's Dunya TV on Tuesday in Washington that more work was needed before an office could be opened.

                    "Everybody has to agree that Qatar would be the right place. Qataris have to talk directly to Afghans — that's a really important thing as well," Grossman said. "And also, I believe to show they're earnest in this, the Taliban need to make a statement around the opening of this office — if it were to open — about their disassociation from international terrorism and also about their commitment to a political process."

                    Khar was the first high-level Pakistani official to visit Kabul since last fall when relations between the neighbors soured after the assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani, a former Afghan president and former head of the government's peace council. He was killed in his Kabul home Sept. 20, 2011, by a suicide bomber posing as a peace emissary from the Taliban. Afghan officials blamed insurgents based in Pakistan.

                    Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmay Rasoul hailed Khar's visit as a breakthrough toward better relations and said there can be no permanent peace until there is serious and honest cooperation between the nations.

                    The ministry said Karzai would travel to Islamabad Feb. 16-17, when he would be expected to push Pakistan to follow through on concrete steps Afghanistan wants Pakistan to take to facilitate the peace process, according to an Afghan official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the delicate negotiations.

                    Davood Moradian, assistant professor of political science at American University in Kabul, said he thinks Khar's trip to Kabul was an effort to capitalize on differences emerging between the Afghan government and Washington over the peace process.

                    "Deepening the division between Kabul and Washington that will weaken both Kabul and Washington is the main objective of Pakistan," he said. "I don't think they have any interest in genuine cooperation with us on the peace process."

                    However, a person familiar with Khar's visit to Kabul stressed that Pakistan was willing to help forge peace. The individual, who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose details of the day's discussions, said Khar held in-depth meetings with members of Afghanistan's ethnic minority factions. They fear that Karzai, a member of the majority Pashtun group, will make too many concessions to the Taliban to shore up his Pashtun base.

                    Afghan officials did not give the indication that peace talks in Saudi Arabia were imminent, although Pakistan did signal that it would help facilitate safe passage for insurgent leaders to attend talks in future venues as it had for those traveling to Qatar, the individual said.

                    Khar's visit to Kabul came on the same day a classified NATO report was leaked, claiming that the Taliban believe they will return to power after the U.S.-led coalition ends its combat role in Afghanistan in 2014. The report, which was based on the interrogation of more than 4,000 captured Taliban, al-Qaida and foreign fighters, was obtained by the BBC and other news organizations.

                    According to excerpts of the report obtained by the BBC, the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence is "thoroughly aware of Taliban activities and the whereabouts of all senior Taliban personnel. The Haqqani family, for example, resides immediately west of the ISI office at the airfield in Miram Shah, Pakistan," the report said.

                    In October 2011, then-Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen said the Haqqani network, which is affiliated with the Taliban, "acts as a veritable arm" of the Pakistani intelligence agency — an accusation that Pakistan has denied. Mullen accused the network of staging an attack against the U.S. Embassy and NATO headquarters in Kabul on Sept. 13 as well as a truck bombing that wounded 77 American soldiers in Wardak province. He claimed Pakistan's spy agency helped the group.

                    The NATO report also said that although they are tired of the fight, surrender was far from the insurgents' mindset — that they believed they were receiving support from Pakistan and were doing well on the battlefield.

                    Khar dismissed the allegations in the report as "old wine in an even older bottle. I don't think these claims are new."

                    "So I think that I can just disregard this as potentially a strategic leak or otherwise," she added.

                    Nick Witney, a former head of the European Defense Agency, said the report indicated the morale of Taliban fighters remained extremely high after 10 years of war — and in spite of a massive military effort mounted by the U.S. and its NATO allies in the past two years.

                    "The report does confirm what has been increasingly obvious for a number of years — that this Afghan operation has turned into a great misadventure for the West," said Witney, a senior policy fellow at the Paris-based European Council on Foreign Relations.

                    But German Brig. Gen. Carsten Jacobson, a spokesman for the U.S.-led military coalition in Afghanistan, said the insurgency "is clearly on the back foot."

                    "We have been pressurizing them over the summer, we have taken vast amounts of land out of their hands and we have detained a high number" of militants, Jacobson said.

                    Pentagon spokesman Capt. John Kirby told reporters that the U.S. would like to see ties severed between some elements of Pakistani intelligence and militant groups.

                    "That's not a strategic decision that we get to make — that's a strategic decision that folks in the ISI need to make."

                    NATO officials cautioned that the report was a summary of interrogations and was not based on an intelligence analysis.

                    Brig. Gen. Stephen Townsend, director of the Joint Staff's Pakistan-Afghanistan coordination cell, warned that the insurgents' comments must be kept in context.

                    "The folks that are quoted in this report are some of the most ideologically committed folks on the enemy's side," he told the U.S. House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday. "I don't think they're representative, one, of the Taliban as a whole, nor are they representative of the Afghan people."

                    ———

                    Associated Press Writers Patrick Quinn, Kay Johnson, Amir Shah and Rahim Faiez in Kabul, Kathy Gannon in Islamabad, Slobodan Lekic in Brussels and Pauline Jelinek and Lolita Baldor in Washington contributed to this report.
                    Last edited by troung; 02 Feb 12,, 01:34.
                    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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                    • #11
                      Referring to the 2000 opium ban?
                      sigpic

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Yeap.

                        =========
                        Why banter - seriously it makes the civilized world just look weaker...

                        he Canadian Press - ONLINE EDITION
                        MacKay talks tough on leaked NATO report of Pakistan's Taliban influence

                        By: Murray Brewster, The Canadian Press

                        Posted: 02/1/2012 5:08 PM | Comments: 12 (including replies) | Last Modified: 02/1/2012 5:24 PM
                        MacKay talks tough on leaked NATO report of Pakistan's Taliban influence - Winnipeg Free Press
                        Defence Minister Peter MacKay

                        Enlarge Image

                        Defence Minister Peter MacKay (FRED CHARTRAND / THE CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES)

                        OTTAWA - Defence Minister Peter MacKay had some tough words for Pakistan following the leak of a secret NATO report that's made for grim reading among allied countries.

                        The documents, obtained by the BBC, say western military commanders believe that Pakistan is helping guide attacks on coalition troops and that captured Taliban fighters are confident they'll take over Afghanistan once foreign troops leave.

                        The notion that Islamabad — or some elements of the country's military or intelligence service — are pulling the strings of the insurgency is not new, MacKay said following question period Wednesday.

                        But he suggested patience is wearing thin.

                        "If they are a reliable all, if they are a country that wants to see Canada, the United States, Great Britain and other NATO allies continue to work in the region to bring about peace and security throughout the region, then their co-operation is required and, in fact, it's demanded," MacKay said.

                        The report said Pakistan's advice and safe havens are critical to the Taliban, even if some Taliban commanders are uncomfortable taking instructions from the Inter-Service Intelligence agency, the Pakistan intelligence service.

                        There is also skepticism that the newly trained Afghan National Army will be able to handle the guerrilla force on its own — a perception that's hammered home in interviews with 4,000 captured Taliban, who boast that they're just biding their time until NATO leaves.

                        MacKay scoffed at that portion of the report.

                        "Naturally, it's going to reflect ... an overly optimistic view of what's happening on the ground in Afghanistan," he said.

                        "We continue to see fighters taken off the battlefield, their followers similarly are diminishing, their leadership is in disarray and the support for the Taliban in Afghanistan continues to fall."

                        The leaked document painted a more stark picture: "Despite numerous tactical setbacks, surrender is far from their collective mind set."

                        Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar, who's in Kabul for talks with the Karzai government, said the report consists of baseless allegations and old news churned up just as her country attempts to improve relations with its neighbours.

                        "We can disregard this as a potentially strategic leak. This is old wine in an even older bottle," Khar told reporters at a joint press conference with her Afghan counterpart.

                        In what could be construed as a vote of confidence in the Afghan army, U.S. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta revealed Wednesday that western forces will likely be out of combat by the end of 2013 and move more toward a training role.

                        He said American troops would "advise-and-assist."

                        Panetta's comments came on the eve of a NATO meeting in Brussels where Afghanistan is to be the main topic of conversation.

                        Earlier this week, the commander of the Canadian Army questioned whether western countries would have the political will — or cash to pay for the bulked up Afghan army after 2014.

                        Lt.-Gen. Peter Devlin said the continuing economic crisis in Europe and budget belt-tightening in North America could make the outlay of billions of dollars to sustain the 352,000 strong security force a tough sell.
                        Meanwhile we have got to bomb those pesky Iranians...
                        To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Some of you guys need to take time and actually READ the annual UNODC Opium Surveys out of Afghanistan.

                          2011 Afghanistan Opium Survey- UNODC

                          Opium is part and parcel to the taliban's way of doing business. They set world record crops when they had control and it's been decidedly to their benefit not to stand in the way of it since. How do you think they actually PAY for anything? Please note where production is highest. Invariably it goes hand-in-hand with areas of greatest taliban activity/influence.
                          "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                          "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by troung View Post
                            Meanwhile we have got to bomb those pesky Iranians...
                            lmao, you go ahead and do it buddy, lol
                            "Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!" B. Franklin

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                            • #15
                              lmao, you go ahead and do it buddy, lol
                              Sarcasm.
                              To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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