Rafale Wins MMRCA Bid

[Defcon5]

"...the Defense budget is some 300 plus times the aid figure."

Are you sure?

Irrelevant in any case. India had to make a decision. Five excellent airframes were destined to come out losers. Brits lose. Dassault wins. India surely wins. They'd have won in anycase with virtually any of the competing aircraft. All seemingly excellent.

India now has a platform to move into the next level of avionics. We'll see if it's worthy. More importantly, we've yet to see whether the Indian aerospace industry can begin responding organically with the sophistication necessary to compete at this advanced combat level.

That's yet to come.

As usual level headed practical no nonsense thought process, nothing less is expected out of you S 2

[Defcon5]

Sir, The Rafale's actual numbers will be closer to 240-250 aircraft, if not more. It is for this reason the contract has the clause which allows the deal not to be capped at 123. India usually orders in several batches, as was done with the C-130s (with 6 ordered initially and than another 6 ordered under the same contract), the C-17 deal (10 ordered, with another 6 extra as optional), aswell as the Su-30 deal (140 initial order rose to 272, and will likely go higher). Furthermore, the HAL Tejas (200 initial projection for induction), should be joining the IAF in about 2 years time and the PAK-FA (250 initial requirement projected) may also join within a decade.

Until than, many of the Jaguars are in line for newer engine upgrades to prolong their life until they can be replaced. India spent around $2 billion upgrading its ~50 Mirage 2000s back in 2007, and just last year signed a deal with the French to further upgrade its entire Mirage 2000 fleet to Mirage 2000-5 Mk 2 standards. Considering the upgrade cost about $50mil a piece, almost the same cost as a brand new Su-30, I believe the Mirages life is extended by atleast another 2 decades. The Mig-29s and Mig-27s too have been upgraded.

The IAF does not plan to reduce numbers. Infact, at its peak, IAF's strength was 39.5 squadrons in the 1980s. Since than it has been fast depleting, but the IAF has expressed that its goal is for full 42 squadrons by 2022, and is working towards that goal.

Tronic,

As of now it is 189 Rafales, 126 Confirmed orders and 63 Options. Yet there is a possibility Indian Navy would acquire 3 Squadrons worth, and Airforce could also buy another 100. But all that is just speculations, so I will refrain from including them.

2025 - We might be able to expect a force structure of the Indian Air Force

189 Rafales
272 Su-30MKI's
250 PAK-FA
68 MiG 29SMT ( up gradation in process)
51 Mirage 2000-5 ( up gradation in process)
139 Jaguars (up gradation in process)
100 MiG 27 ( up gradation in process)
40 LCA

That is nearly 920 top of the line aircrafts. 45 Squadrons worth.

From 2020- 2030, You can expect the MiG 27s, Mirage 2000-5's, Jaguar's, MiG-29's to be completely phased out. I expect more Rafale's to replace them on a 1 on 1 basis as well as the AMCA. I think the LCA project will stop at 40 units and the AMCA will take over.
I havent added the

[Defcon5]

There is a good possibility of India attain 60 Squadrons. The minimum number required to do a 2 front war. LCA's just wouldnt cut it. Also how will UCAV's play into this equation is to be watched.

[Blademaster]

Tronic,

2025 - We might be able to expect a force structure of the Indian Air Force

189 Rafales
272 Su-30MKI's
250 PAK-FA
68 MiG 29SMT ( up gradation in process)
51 Mirage 2000-5 ( up gradation in process)
139 Jaguars (up gradation in process)
100 MiG 27 ( up gradation in process)
40 LCA

That is nearly 920 top of the line aircrafts. 45 Squadrons worth. Which means only 40 out of 920 are single engined planes

From 2020- 2030, You can expect the MiG 27s, Mirage 2000-5's, Jaguar's, MiG-29's to be completely phased out. I expect more Rafale's to replace them on a 1 on 1 basis as well as the AMCA. I think the LCA project will stop at 40 units and the AMCA will take over.
I havent added the

I disagree with you. No way the IAF would and neither would GoI go for a force that is top heavy and very little cost effective planes. You are projecting a very top heavy force with very little numbers of single-engine planes. That would make such a force too costly to maintain and operate. No, I foresee LCA in the hundreds since they would be the mainstay of the force, i.e., normal patrolling and jack of the trades roles. LCAs are projected to have the lowest operating costs out of all fighter planes. That is something that the IAF wants and desperately needs.

For reasons stated above, the AMCA cannot supplant the LCA's role. It can only supplant the Rafale's role which is why I think it should be planned as the eventual replacement of Rafale for 2050. Looking at the history of fighter plane development in India and the LCA program, I think that is very reasonable given the current level of technical and R&D expertise in India.

[Tronic]

Tronic,

As of now it is 189 Rafales, 126 Confirmed orders and 63 Options. Yet there is a possibility Indian Navy would acquire 3 Squadrons worth, and Airforce could also buy another 100. But all that is just speculations, so I will refrain from including them...

....

From 2020- 2030, You can expect the MiG 27s, Mirage 2000-5's, Jaguar's, MiG-29's to be completely phased out. I expect more Rafale's to replace them on a 1 on 1 basis as well as the AMCA. I think the LCA project will stop at 40 units and the AMCA will take over.
I havent added the

Too many "ifs" relying on 2 crucial projects; the PAK-FA and AMCA.

AMCA is also not there to replace the Tejas, rather to supplement it. AMCA is a replacement for the Jaguars.


@BM

Same as above.

Also, 2050 is too far a time frame to be making any predictions.

Secondly, this is not some new radical aircraft buying spree. It's a routine modernization drive to replace assets which are reaching obsolescence. This is also not a new found realization of a 2 front war; that possibility was realized as far back as '62.

Infact, if you backtrack to the 70s and 80s, the IAF went through an almost similar phase. Jaguars, Mirages, Mig-23s, Mig-27s, Mig-29s, Mig-25s, Harriers were all bought within a short time span of 10 years or less. It may have seemed as a radical buying spree than too, but just as now, it is simply a periodical modernization drive.

[Blademaster]

Too many "ifs" relying on 2 crucial projects; the PAK-FA and AMCA.

AMCA is also not there to replace the Tejas, rather to supplement it. AMCA is a replacement for the Jaguars.


@BM

Same as above.

Also, 2050 is too far a time frame to be making any predictions.

Secondly, this is not some new radical aircraft buying spree. It's a routine modernization drive to replace assets which are reaching obsolescence. This is also not a new found realization of a 2 front war; that possibility was realized as far back as '62.

Infact, if you backtrack to the 70s and 80s, the IAF went through an almost similar phase. Jaguars, Mirages, Mig-23s, Mig-27s, Mig-29s, Mig-25s, Harriers were all bought within a short time span of 10 years or less. It may have seemed as a radical buying spree than too, but just as now, it is simply a periodical modernization drive.

And the IAF has realized the folly of purchasing so many different types of planes and now desire to winnow the many types into few as to aid in reduction of inefficiency and cost and streamline training, operations, and spare logistics. Having too many different types increased the cost of periodic upgrades and costs of spares, thus putting a huge dent in IAF's plans for periodic upgrades and sufficient spares.

So this is not a periodical modernization drive. This is a golden opportunity to winnow the types of planes and increase the force structure and IAF is realizing this now.

[Defcon5]

I disagree with you. No way the IAF would and neither would GoI go for a force that is top heavy and very little cost effective planes. You are projecting a very top heavy force with very little numbers of single-engine planes. That would make such a force too costly to maintain and operate. No, I foresee LCA in the hundreds since they would be the mainstay of the force, i.e., normal patrolling and jack of the trades roles. LCAs are projected to have the lowest operating costs out of all fighter planes. That is something that the IAF wants and desperately needs.

For reasons stated above, the AMCA cannot supplant the LCA's role. It can only supplant the Rafale's role which is why I think it should be planned as the eventual replacement of Rafale for 2050. Looking at the history of fighter plane development in India and the LCA program, I think that is very reasonable given the current level of technical and R&D expertise in India.

You are right, we are about to sign 99 GE-414 Engines. So that would mean atleast 80 LCA's, and then we would have atleast 120 through Kaveri Engine. But to be honest, IAF is completely dissatisfied with LCA. So 120 LCA's are confirmed now. Another possible 120 Kaveri LCA's.

So what will replace the remaining MiG-27, Jaguar, MiG-29 and Mirage 2005 in the Year 2025 - Total 358 - Rafale and LCA? Possibility of 200 LCA's and 158 Rafale? Bringing a total of Rafale's to 350.

I personally think LCA might reach the point of obsolescence by 2030, so what is the point of manufacturing more of them. Maybe we should think about a replacement to LCA, and you are right, that is not the AMCA.

[Defcon5]

So is this 2030?

250 PAKFA
350 Rafale
240 LCA
272 Su-30MKI

Or it could be 250 Rafale's and 340 LCA's.

How will UCAV's play into all of these.

[jlvfr]

Didn't see this here. If anyone posted, apologies:
Cassidian preparing lower Typhoon bid for India's MMRCA, says UK defence minister

Think there's a chance, specially since the brits seem to have pissed off India?

[Defcon5]

Didn't see this here. If anyone posted, apologies:
Cassidian preparing lower Typhoon bid for India's MMRCA, says UK defence minister

Think there's a chance, specially since the brits seem to have pissed off India?

Not going to happen, unless the French mess this up. British stock in the Indian political scene has gone down considerably.

[Blademaster]

You are right, we are about to sign 99 GE-414 Engines. So that would mean atleast 80 LCA's, and then we would have atleast 120 through Kaveri Engine. But to be honest, IAF is completely dissatisfied with LCA. So 120 LCA's are confirmed now. Another possible 120 Kaveri LCA's.

So what will replace the remaining MiG-27, Jaguar, MiG-29 and Mirage 2005 in the Year 2025 - Total 358 - Rafale and LCA? Possibility of 200 LCA's and 158 Rafale? Bringing a total of Rafale's to 350.

I personally think LCA might reach the point of obsolescence by 2030, so what is the point of manufacturing more of them. Maybe we should think about a replacement to LCA, and you are right, that is not the AMCA.

The LCA is here to stay. The MoD will make sure of that. Besides, the LCA is not a bad plane. It can and will replace the role of Mig-21 bis and even excel better at it than the Mig-21 bis. The advantage of LCA is its quantative edge. Produce enough of LCAs with AESAs and BVRs and a good package of EW coupled with 12-18 AWACs and you got a very potent force. And it is cost effective. The IAF knows this. That is why IAF has insisted more stringently on the avioinics package than rather the flight performance profile of LCA. The LCA mk 2 will have the desired capacity for those avionics that IAF wanted. Remember, 1 Rafale equals 5 LCAs pricewise considering the costs of spares, logistics, and infrastructure.

[Blademaster]

Didn't see this here. If anyone posted, apologies:
Cassidian preparing lower Typhoon bid for India's MMRCA, says UK defence minister

Think there's a chance, specially since the brits seem to have pissed off India?

No the GoI are jumping up and down joyously because they now have complete leverage to ensure the French offer a competitive bid since the French knows that the Brits are waiting at the sidelines, poised to come down on the French's flanks. With the promised deal of Brazil and UAE and Brits willing to do anything to derail the Rafale's chances, chances are very high that the Dassault and the French will cave in to most of GoI's demands. And that is a very very good thing.

[Defcon5]

The LCA is here to stay. The MoD will make sure of that. Besides, the LCA is not a bad plane. It can and will replace the role of Mig-21 bis and even excel better at it than the Mig-21 bis. The advantage of LCA is its quantative edge. Produce enough of LCAs with AESAs and BVRs and a good package of EW coupled with 12-18 AWACs and you got a very potent force. And it is cost effective. The IAF knows this. That is why IAF has insisted more stringently on the avioinics package than rather the flight performance profile of LCA. The LCA mk 2 will have the desired capacity for those avionics that IAF wanted. Remember, 1 Rafale equals 5 LCAs pricewise considering the costs of spares, logistics, and infrastructure.

Hitesh,

There is a inherent flaw in LCA, It is its air flow. That is not going to change without serious redesign, might as well as make a new light combat aircraft. 1 Rafale doesnt equal 5 LCA. With a foreign engine, foreign AESA etc also adding the R&D cost, it might half the cost of a Rafale or at most 2 Rafale's.

I am not going against your assertion for a plane 'like' LCA, but rather LCA itself. It is currently in a half baked form, but I am not blaming anyone, making aircraft industry from scratch is no child's play. But is that enough of a reason for IAF to order 350 LCA's, I doubt it.

[Blademaster]

Hitesh,

There is a inherent flaw in LCA, It is its air flow. That is not going to change without serious redesign, might as well as make a new light combat aircraft. 1 Rafale doesnt equal 5 LCA. With a foreign engine, foreign AESA etc also adding the R&D cost, it might half the cost of a Rafale or at most 2 Rafale's.
.

The Kaveri engine and the indigenous AESA would lower the cost of LCA consierably and that is why I would think that it could be 1/5 of Rafale. As for the inherent flaw of LCA, even with its flaw, it still outperforms the Mig-21. Witness the previous ACM Naik saying that it is 3.5 generation at least. With avionics, it would be 4th generation or 4.5 depending on the avionics.

Besides what is wrong with the airflow of the LCA? Was it because IAF changed its requirements and wanted higher thrust and more heavier payload or avionics that necessitated a higher thrust?

What is the value of the airflow in layman's terms? I am not an aeronautical engineer. So please explain to me in layman's terms.

By the way, how do you know my name? Just curious. Do I know you somewhere else? Pls PM if you can.

[Defcon5]

The Kaveri engine and the indigenous AESA would lower the cost of LCA consierably and that is why I would think that it could be 1/5 of Rafale. As for the inherent flaw of LCA, even with its flaw, it still outperforms the Mig-21. Witness the previous ACM Naik saying that it is 3.5 generation at least. With avionics, it would be 4th generation or 4.5 depending on the avionics.

Besides what is wrong with the airflow of the LCA? Was it because IAF changed its requirements and wanted higher thrust and more heavier payload or avionics that necessitated a higher thrust?

What is the value of the airflow in layman's terms? I am not an aeronautical engineer. So please explain to me in layman's terms.

By the way, how do you know my name? Just curious. Do I know you somewhere else? Pls PM if you can.

Hitesh,

There is a cost for Kaveri Engine, it will not be cheap, blame Secma and ToT pricing for that
The AESA is mostly the Indianized Elta 2050. Again the same costing issue.
unfortunately I am not myself a aero engg, though there is a much talked about issue. There is a reason why Gripen gives better engine performance with the same GE engine than the LCA. There simply not enough air going into the engine.
A better MiG-21 is not what IAF is looking for, they are looking much beyond that.
I have been lurking this forum for eons