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  • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Seriously, I cannot wrap my head around this. Why waste monies on the MMRCA when the PAK-FA is around the corner? India got the SU-27 which is at least on par with anything the Chinese and the Pakistanis got. Except for the Chinese who got the J-20, ie a PAK-FA class, in development, sticking with the SU-27/31 will not reduce Indian capabilities against either China or Pakistan.

    Sir, there is a fleet of ~140 Jaguars, ~140 Mig-27s, ~70 Mig-29s, and over 150 Mig-21s, which needs immediate replacement. The Mig-21 fleet is quickly being decommissioned while its replacement, the HAL Tejas is still nowhere in sight. The 450 strong Mig-21 fleet in the 80s has dropped to 150 today, with 50 more aircraft slated to retire by the end of this year, and the rest by 2014. ~70 Mig-23s too were taken out of service without being adequately replaced. The fast depleting combat strength makes the MMRCA tender all the more necessary.

    IAF's sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons had dropped to 33 squadrons due to all these retirements. That is the reason the number of Su-30s in the IAF has gone up from the original decision to induct 140 to 272 today. The MMRCA too is expected to increase from 123 aircraft to well over 200.

    The IAF had, about a decade back, made a request to the MoD to simply buy the entire Mirage-2000 production line from France and shift it to India; but due to all single vendor deals being under a lot of skepticism in India due to possibility of corruption, it was decided rather to float a global tender, giving birth to the MMRCA competition.

    The Indian Navy is also now eyeing the Rafale, because they too are in need of replacements for their ageing Sea Harrier force. And with the army now pushing for the expansion of their own aviation arm, the Navy has already put these plans in motion, and the slated induction of a 3 carrier force keeps the air force at bay against questioning the Navy's requirements.
    Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
    -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

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    • Originally posted by Deltacamelately View Post
      Doktor,

      The way I see it, the Argies messed up with the British, a rated european power. I don't think that they would have the stomach to piss off the bulk of the western powers, just to please the Argies. Though this might not exactly be a valid comparison, but at the same time, I really don't see India going up against any of the major western powers, warranting a similar French action.


      On a side note, I could imagine the Indian decission makers factoring all these probables, along with putting checks and boundaries against any such embargoes in times of war.
      Major,

      Despite all the bad blood and the political rant the British are #1 French ally in 20th century. I am sure there was some settling of old bills under the table.

      Thinking about that situation, I often wonder if the Argies are the ones who owe the French - for not getting nuked.

      Comparing it to India you are right, France don't have many friends in your region who have big issues with India. So this shouldn't happen when you guys less expect it, while it is still smart to have a backup in those contracts.
      Last edited by Doktor; 12 Feb 12,, 11:12.
      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Tronic View Post
        Sir, there is a fleet of ~140 Jaguars, ~140 Mig-27s, ~70 Mig-29s, and over 150 Mig-21s, which needs immediate replacement.
        Seriously, this is not going to be a 1 to 1 replacement and there's no way in hell that the RAFALE can do all the jobs these planes did. Two JAGUARS will always carry more bombs than one RAFALE. The InAF will have to reduce both number needs and requirement needs.

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        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          Seriously, this is not going to be a 1 to 1 replacement and there's no way in hell that the RAFALE can do all the jobs these planes did. Two JAGUARS will always carry more bombs than one RAFALE. The InAF will have to reduce both number needs and requirement needs.
          Sir, The Rafale's actual numbers will be closer to 240-250 aircraft, if not more. It is for this reason the contract has the clause which allows the deal not to be capped at 123. India usually orders in several batches, as was done with the C-130s (with 6 ordered initially and than another 6 ordered under the same contract), the C-17 deal (10 ordered, with another 6 extra as optional), aswell as the Su-30 deal (140 initial order rose to 272, and will likely go higher). Furthermore, the HAL Tejas (200 initial projection for induction), should be joining the IAF in about 2 years time and the PAK-FA (250 initial requirement projected) may also join within a decade.

          Until than, many of the Jaguars are in line for newer engine upgrades to prolong their life until they can be replaced. India spent around $2 billion upgrading its ~50 Mirage 2000s back in 2007, and just last year signed a deal with the French to further upgrade its entire Mirage 2000 fleet to Mirage 2000-5 Mk 2 standards. Considering the upgrade cost about $50mil a piece, almost the same cost as a brand new Su-30, I believe the Mirages life is extended by atleast another 2 decades. The Mig-29s and Mig-27s too have been upgraded.

          The IAF does not plan to reduce numbers. Infact, at its peak, IAF's strength was 39.5 squadrons in the 1980s. Since than it has been fast depleting, but the IAF has expressed that its goal is for full 42 squadrons by 2022, and is working towards that goal.
          Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
          -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Tronic View Post
            Sir, there is a fleet of ~140 Jaguars, ~140 Mig-27s, ~70 Mig-29s, and over 150 Mig-21s, which needs immediate replacement.
            The IAF has no plans to replace the Jaguar anytime soon. In fact it was looking to re-engine the Jaguar with Honeywell engines to fix its well-known problem of being under-powered. Several of the aircraft have undergone the DARIN II upgrade which replaced the avionics, communication and navigation systems with newer ones. The DARIN III upgrade is also in the works. The MRCA requirement was never about replacing the Jaguars.

            The Mig-29s are also currently being upgraded in Russia with a new radar, a glass cockpit, new engines, new A-to-g weapons and a conformal fuel tank on the spine to increase range. They are also not going to be replaced for at least another 10-15 years.

            The Mig-21s and 27 need replacement. The 125 Bison upgraded Mig-21s can hold out till the LCA is finally ready for induction. The MMRCA will probably replace the older 21s and the 27s and be used to bulk up numbers.

            The Indian Navy is also now eyeing the Rafale, because they too are in need of replacements for their ageing Sea Harrier force.
            While this may happen several years in the future, as of now, the IN is going to have more aircraft than it can fit on it's carriers since it has already ordered 45 Mig-29Ks. They are going to come in much earlier than the indigenous A/C is ready for induction and the Gorshkov can fit less half that number.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Tronic View Post
              Sir, The Rafale's actual numbers will be closer to 240-250 aircraft, if not more. It is for this reason the contract has the clause which allows the deal not to be capped at 123.
              That sounds high. The current deal has an option for 63 more without re-negotiation. That brings it to 189 if exercised. It could go up to 200 perhaps, but I haven't seen a number as high as 240 or 250 being even rumored anywhere.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
                The IAF has no plans to replace the Jaguar anytime soon. In fact it was looking to re-engine the Jaguar with Honeywell engines to fix its well-known problem of being under-powered. Several of the aircraft have undergone the DARIN II upgrade which replaced the avionics, communication and navigation systems with newer ones. The DARIN III upgrade is also in the works. The MRCA requirement was never about replacing the Jaguars.
                As I stated earlier, the engine upgrades are mainly to prolong its life until they can be replaced. You're right that the MMRCA was never meant to replace the Jaguar; that job was left to HAL's MCA program (medium combat aircraft) which the IAF envisioned having its first flight in 2015 and joining the force by the end of this decade. I don't exactly see that first flight on the horizon, as HAL is still stuck on the LCA.

                It's also more than just engines which makes the Jaguar unattractive to the IAF. Neither DARIN II, nor DARIN III, will solve Jaguar's radar (or lack of) problems.


                The Mig-29s are also currently being upgraded in Russia with a new radar, a glass cockpit, new engines, new A-to-g weapons and a conformal fuel tank on the spine to increase range. They are also not going to be replaced for at least another 10-15 years.
                Read post # 109; I'm stating the same thing. These birds are only getting upgrades until they can be replaced. The IAF has been notoriously unhappy with their Mig-29s, and the upgrade is but a temporary measure. I believe they are still pissed off at the fact that they chose to buy Mig-29s in the late 80s rather than buy more Mirages.

                The only birds which I really see the IAF clinging onto are the Mirages, and there's a reason the IAF is doling out so much money to upgrade those birds. They're in love with that plane. Heck, the IAF just wanted more Mirages rather than Rafales in the first place.

                The Mig-21s and 27 need replacement. The 125 Bison upgraded Mig-21s can hold out till the LCA is finally ready for induction. The MMRCA will probably replace the older 21s and the 27s and be used to bulk up numbers.
                The Bison force is all slated to be retired in the next 2-3 years, they have no option. They are not going to wait on HAL.

                The immediate replacements for the MMRCA will likely be 21s, 27s, aswell as reviving number plated squadrons.


                While this may happen several years in the future, as of now, the IN is going to have more aircraft than it can fit on it's carriers since it has already ordered 45 Mig-29Ks. They are going to come in much earlier than the indigenous A/C is ready for induction and the Gorshkov can fit less half that number.
                The navy is not planning anything until it starts work on IAC-2, its first CATOBAR carrier. That said, the navy was holding its breath for the Rafale.


                Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
                That sounds high. The current deal has an option for 63 more without re-negotiation. That brings it to 189 if exercised. It could go up to 200 perhaps, but I haven't seen a number as high as 240 or 250 being even rumored anywhere.
                Re-negotiations happened for the MKIs.

                Aswell, 200 is the number with IAF envisioning PAK-FAs and MCAs by the end of this decade. I am not too sure about that possibility. All depends on if the Russians and HAL can deliver on time.
                Last edited by Tronic; 13 Feb 12,, 16:49.
                Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
                -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

                Comment


                • Ideally, IAF's force structure should be like this: 300 MKIs, 260 Rafales, 450 ~ 550 LCAs (we have to get the LCAs one way or the other. If we don't, IAF would be top heavy and be too costly to maintain) and 200 ~250 PAK-FAs in 2025. This will give the IAF a force of 1200 to 1400 combat planes which is sufficient to meet any challenge by Pakistan or China and even to an extent USAF if IAF can manage to upgrade its EW and AWACs forces. It will be the first time that IAF would be a capability based air force. Ideally, IN should have 80 Rafales M or 60 JSF and 100 NLCA which would be used for air defence, the B variant if the USMC manages to keep the B variant alive.

                  We junk out any variant and all kinds of Migs, retire the Jaguars and keep the upgrades Mirages as a reserve and be used as wild weasel roles or recon roles.

                  The MCA should be designed as to replace the Rafales and some MKIs so we should move the induction of MCAs to match the timeline of retiring Rafales. Since the LCA's long delayed induction, I am not holding any breath to see the MCA being formally inducted this decade or the next decade. I would hold my breath if it was being inducted as to replace the Rafales and some MKIs. The PAK-FAs would replace the 29s and supplant the Mirages as the air dominance fighter of IAF designed to establish air superiority and air dominance for IAF. MKIs and Rafales would take place of multirole planes. LCAs would be the everyday regular patrol CAP and mundane ground attack nothing too highly specialized planes since they would be the cheapest to operate and maintain.

                  In 2050, I would expect to see PAK-FAs, MCAs, Rafales (being the reserve force), and LCA mk 3 or third generation of indigenous single engine Indian fighter plane.
                  Last edited by Blademaster; 13 Feb 12,, 17:12.

                  Comment


                  • BM, I don't think IAF is going to be operating 1200-1400 combat aircraft! Very expensive and far beyond requirements. If there are 400-500 Tejas, than there is no way there will be 260 Rafales and 250 FGFAs. I see ~200 Tejas, ~240 Rafales, ~300 MKIs, ~50 Mirages and ~250 PAK-FAs. If the MCA materializes, than there will be less Rafales (120-150) with probably a 100 or so MCAs.
                    Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
                    -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

                    Comment


                    • Following the Grippen selection, here is a leaked official report from the Swiss Air Force evaluation....

                      The fact that it is cheaper might not have been the only factor in Rafale selection.

                      http://files.newsnetz.ch/upload//1/2/12332.pdf

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Tronic View Post
                        BM, I don't think IAF is going to be operating 1200-1400 combat aircraft! Very expensive and far beyond requirements. If there are 400-500 Tejas, than there is no way there will be 260 Rafales and 250 FGFAs. I see ~200 Tejas, ~240 Rafales, ~300 MKIs, ~50 Mirages and ~250 PAK-FAs. If the MCA materializes, than there will be less Rafales (120-150) with probably a 100 or so MCAs.
                        IAF is gearing up to prepare for a two front war, i.e., Pakistan and China, and that means a force of 1200-1400 planes. I can easily see IAF going for 450-550 Tejas since they would help IAF lower the cost of operations and training and allow to preserve the flying lifespan of more expensive airplanes such as Rafales and PAK-FA.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Xav View Post
                          Following the Grippen selection, here is a leaked official report from the Swiss Air Force evaluation....

                          The fact that it is cheaper might not have been the only factor in Rafale selection.

                          http://files.newsnetz.ch/upload//1/2/12332.pdf
                          If the text is Swiss... Why is it in English?
                          No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                          To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                          Comment


                          • Switzerland has 4 official languages (German, French, Italian and Romanche). I read that they choose English as a working language for this (to manage everyone susceptibilities...). The report has not been denied by the Swiss Air Force so far.

                            Some more links from Swiss Newspapers :
                            (In French)
                            http://www.lematin.ch/suisse/Ueli-Ma...story/26011927

                            Aviation Week :
                            http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs...f-fb707ccd5610
                            Last edited by Xav; 13 Feb 12,, 22:40.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by snapper View Post
                              I am told by people that know these things that a 'firm decision' is not yet made and the Eurofighter may yet win out. However since the Indians say they no longer wish aid I cannot see why HMG should force taxpayers money on them.
                              You do know that Indian Government doesnt even get a dime of this, It is spend by British Government through British Governmental agencies to British government recongnized NGO, not the Government of India, last time I checked the representative of Indians are Government of Republic of India, not some NGO. We would like all our ancestral money back with interest and compensation on which your present was made, and my present was stolen.

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                              • Originally posted by snapper View Post
                                I would happily advise HMG not to donate more to India and shall when I return to work. I wasn't aware that your permission was required by thankyou nevertheless.

                                As for Britain owing you money this is, I believe, a 'what if?' question. Would India even be a country if Britain hadn't unified it? How much did it cost you to learn English? I am not sure this debate belongs in this thread though.
                                Learning English at the cost of 25 million lives through genocide and trillions of dollars worth of wealth. Right. I think you are not aware of the Mauryan Empire, Kushan Empire, Maratha Empire, Sikh Empire. The idea of India existed far before British even knew letters. I am sure since we were not some idiots, we know for sure how to run our lives as well as our country.

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