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Thread: Some Brainstorming Help Needed

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    Some Brainstorming Help Needed

    I was speaking with one of my best friends yesterday, she needs to write a paper for one of her PoliSci classes, the objective is for the US to somehow get Pakistan and India to disarm from their nuclear weapons, all means are Kosher.

    We fiddled around a bit with enlisting Russia and China into a complete and total isolation of the two countries and with nuking the shit out of Kashmir and then destroying India's carriers and all offensive weaponry that can reach the CONUS, but neither of those really have much merit to them.

    Another idea she came up with is for the US to somehow manipulate the Indian, Pakistani and Chinese economies so that they are entwined in each other without the countries realizing that and then threatening to topple the house of cards. She's hoping that a bad case of rational thinking will break out and they'll realize that as long as they're intertwined economically, nukes are bad for business.

    =======================================

    What I'm wondering is, can you guys come up with a couple more hypothetical ideas in how to get Pakistan and India to disarm from their nukes? All means acceptable, but just remember that every single act has consequences.
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    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    For once,both could fire theirs at each other.They won't have them anymore,so is disarmament,done by their own free will(the best way).

    You can have all the interdependency you like.Nukes alone only guarantee the survival of the current regimes in the 3 nations faced with an direct external threat.They don't safeguard the regime in front of internal distress and they don't prevent a gradual decline in international political and economic status.So,what's the real fuss about their nukes?

    Btw,what your collegue has to say about the presumed Israeli nukes?Since none of us laymans knows for sure the truth about their existence it's all hypothetical.
    Those who know don't speak
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    What nukes? Israel has never admitted that they have nukes, and I've never seen any of them, so I have no idea what you're talking about.

    From what I understand the main goal is to disarm Pakistan above all, because they have the weakest army and the most motivation to go rogue. India and China might be belligerent and pains in the asses, but the belief (at least as far as her paper was given) is that they're not quite dumb or desperate enough to launch. With Pakistan under influence from radical Muslim groups in country (and perhaps in gov't as well), they are not seen as a stable force in the region
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    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Hey,wrt Israeli nukes it's hypothetical.I said so.

    Now,you don't send the Peace Corp to Islamic fundamentalists and ask them nicely.You can't even entice the bastards with long term benefits of economic cooperation and such.If they were interested in this and able to mentally calculate the cost/benefits of such an approach,they wouldn't be radicals in the first place.

    Either their nukes can be taken out by some sort of preemptive action or we'd have to live with detterence and hope it's enough.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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    Like I said, according to the guidelines for the paper, deterrence has been deemed to no longer be reliable. Militarily is an option, but the question is, can you come up with some other method?
    Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

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    In Memoriam/Battleship Enthusiast Defense Professional USSWisconsin's Avatar
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    Two things

    On Israeli Nukes: What were those concentric metal spheres that appeared in the press a few decades ago? They seemed rather suspicious to me.

    On the main question: An ugly approach - using covert means to initiate a nuclear war - perhaps by smuggling a nuclear device into a disputed region like Kashmir and setting it off in a way that made both sides believe the other had attacked them, thereby igniting a nuclear exchange that decimates both countries and depletes these arsenals. This of course is a diabolical and terrible solution to this "problem". Whoever did this would make all the monsterous acts of the 20th century look feeble by comparison. Instead of Godwin's law being envoked, some new version of that with this perpetrator of the greatest man made holocaust ever as the unmentionable party would probably emerge - if our world remained intact enough for this to happen.

    With modern weapons now capable of achieving most of the same objectives that nukes have historically provided, it is a reasonable hope that the nukes might become obsolete due to their immense cost and general unusability. Large thermobaric weapons might offer a greater deterant - since their use would be more feasible, leading to greater deterence. City busting weapons of this type are now possible, and if used would not necessarily lead to a radioactive fallout poisoning of the world as nukes have threatened to do. However, the cost in human suffering and lost lives might be quite similar in a global exchange.
    Last edited by USSWisconsin; 13 Jan 12, at 15:02.
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    I know you say "all means are kosher", but what's the course title? What's the actual prompt, word for word? I suspect a paper revolving around a military operation will be perceived as having "missed the point" of the course and the subject material. It's all well and good to have this discussion among ourselves here but I would highly advise against applying thoughts that come up here to a paper, especially if parameters that exist for the paper (be they formal or informal) aren't considered.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigross86 View Post
    What I'm wondering is, can you guys come up with a couple more hypothetical ideas in how to get Pakistan and India to disarm from their nukes? All means acceptable, but just remember that every single act has consequences.
    Sino-US no first use treaty, no IRBM+ treaty. China gets to divert the money spent on the bigger missiles and her nuclear program into other areas, the threat of an American nuclear strike goes away. Anyway however its done, on what ever terms. China can't disarm unless India does, and India won't unless Pakistan does, so the US puts Pakistan under a nuclear umbrella and enters a NW sharing agreement for 10 years (US weapons Pakistani delivery platforms), Russia does the same for India and also inspects Chinese nuclear sites. All parties create a joint monitoring team to inspect or monitor each other. US provides India with real time spy sat footage of Pakistan and vice verse for example. Pakistani nuclear materials sold to the US, Indian nuclear materials sold to Russia, Chinese nuclear materials reprocessed as reactor fuel.

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    What I'm wondering is, can you guys come up with a couple more hypothetical ideas in how to get Pakistan and India to disarm from their nukes?
    This is a very simple minded thought.

    The threat of accountability is why you won't find civilian yahoos assembling and detonating a nuclear bomb just like any other crude bomb. Yes, it can become a possibility if you push it that far. If america and israel are still game enough, go strike the pakistani nuclear facilities and bring on the new times.
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    I am interested in the name of the study that your friend needs to write this paper for, could you tell me?

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    Liberté, Unité, Egalité Senior Contributor Tronic's Avatar
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    Zrav,

    China can't disarm unless India does, and India won't unless Pakistan does, so the US puts Pakistan under a nuclear umbrella and enters a NW sharing agreement for 10 years (US weapons Pakistani delivery platforms),Russia does the same for India and also inspects Chinese nuclear sites. All parties create a joint monitoring team to inspect or monitor each other. US provides India with real time spy sat footage of Pakistan and vice verse for example. Pakistani nuclear materials sold to the US, Indian nuclear materials sold to Russia, Chinese nuclear materials reprocessed as reactor fuel.

    India's leaders had planned to go nuclear even before the country gained independence. Its nuclear program dates back to the 1950s, while its nuclear weapons program started in the 60s. It had little to do with Pakistan. India has repeatedly stated that it has no intentions on disarming for as long as other nations continue to hold on to their nukes (and by that they mean the P5, not Pakistan). India wants the nuclear NPT nations to follow through with article 6 of the NPT, for it to disarm. Not wanting to live in a world of haves and have nots, it is the main reason India did not sign the NPT and went on to develop nukes. Pakistan or no Pakistan, India would have gone nuclear either way and she won't disarm until the rest of the world does.
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    How does Indian-Pakistani disarmament in any way address the strategic situation of India vis-a-vis China?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    Zrav,
    India's leaders had planned to go nuclear even before the country gained independence. Its nuclear program dates back to the 1950s, while its nuclear weapons program started in the 60s. It had little to do with Pakistan. India has repeatedly stated that it has no intentions on disarming for as long as other nations continue to hold on to their nukes (and by that they mean the P5, not Pakistan). India wants the nuclear NPT nations to follow through with article 6 of the NPT, for it to disarm. Not wanting to live in a world of haves and have nots, it is the main reason India did not sign the NPT and went on to develop nukes. Pakistan or no Pakistan, India would have gone nuclear either way and she won't disarm until the rest of the world does.
    She will disarm the day it pays more to be a former NWS than a NWS state, same goes for all the NWS. Either a technology renders them as effective as pike vs tanks or some other shift makes nukes a bad thing to have.

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    Take a page from the Burma sanctions: Ban trade and investment, no travel to US-friendly countries for government and military leaders, kids aren't allowed to go to school overseas and so forth.

    Since there is a current example of this approach yielding some small gains, and the untimate outcome is still to come, the teacher can't complain that it is unrealistic or doesn't work.

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    Bigross,
    Your friend needs to understand that Indian nukes are not Pakistan centric. We went nuclear due to Chinese threats and nuclear blackmail. So your friend would have to re-orient her perception of the issues at hand.

    Cheers!...on the rocks!!

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