Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Iran Reiterates Threat To Close Strait of Hormuz If Attacked

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #46
    Wrt nations involved.What the Emirs,sheikhs and princes want may not be the same as Abdul wants.It may sound like a broken record,but that's is.Unlike Roccor and many others I've no direct experience there,but the fundamentals problems in the ME are quite the same,with slight variations.
    The problem with the US military isn't the money,is the political will.It may sound like a stereotype,but the American way of war is also a bit expensive.Cutting exceses may help a lot in maintaining combat power,while making the effort sustainable.The decline is also not a matter of capabilities,but a matter of willpower.

    The rise of Iran is not the rise of a military hegemon,but one of a power that has the willpower to do it.Maybe it sounds stupid,but if they ever come to rule the area it will be because they want it bad enough.They can be halted,but they proved so far adept at playing divide and conquer.There is no local force that can change that and no amount of military equipment and money spent on the part of the Arab regimes will change that.

    Why would a global hegemon have interest in protecting the tankers belonging to multinationals?IMO,because without that there will be no global hegemon,but many local ones.Iran and the rest will sell their oil,there's no doubt on that,may be at even better prices.But they will sell only to whom they want,at what price they want.Now they are important for all the rest.On their own,they become a power center themselves.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by RoccoR View Post
      This is a political slight of hand. It sounds more impressive than it is.
      • Kuwait, the fall back position at Ali al-Salem AB.
      • Bahrain, Fifth Fleet is also headquartered, may, at the peak it has 1000 personnel.
      • Qatar, Air Base, which has about 415 U.S. personnel;
      • Egypt's Sinai Deser, about 400 are based in the continuing multinational observer force, created by the Camp David Accords
      • Another 2,000 troops, most of them U.S. Marines, are stationed on amphibious vessels in the Persian Gulf.
      Och really laddie?

      You seem to have forgotten the United States 5th Fleet

      Composition

      Task Force 50, Battle Force (~1 x Forward Deployed Carrier Strike Group)
      Task Force 51, Amphibious Force (~1 x Expeditionary Strike Group)/Expeditionary Strike Group Five/TF 59 (Manama, Bahrain)
      Task Force 52, mining/demining force
      Task Force 53, Logistics Force[5]/Sealift Logistics Command Central, Military Sealift Command (MSC replenishment ships plus USN MH-53E Sea Stallion helicopters and C-130 Hercules, C-9 Skytrain II and/or C-40 Clipper aircraft)
      Task Force 54, (dual-hatted as Task Force 74) Submarine Force
      Task Force 55, Operation Iraqi Freedom: Constellation Carrier Strike Force; June 2003: mine clearing force, including elements from the U.S. Navy Marine Mammal Program
      Task Force 56, Navy Expeditionary Combat Command force.[6]
      CTG 56.1 Explosive Ordnance Disposal / Expeditionary Diving and Salvage[7]
      CTG 56.2 Naval Construction Forces
      CTG 56.3 Expeditionary Logistics Support; Provides logistics support for USN/USA/USMC, cargo movement and customs throughout AOR
      CTG 56.4 Riverine; Provides riverineprotection of waterways from illegal smuggling of weapons, drugs and people
      CTG 56.5 Maritime Expeditionary Security; Provides anti-Terrorism/Force Protection of land/port/littoral waterway operations for USN and Coalition assets, as well as point defense of strategic platforms and MSC vessels
      CTG 56.6 Expeditionary Combat Readiness; Provides administrative “Sailor support” for all Individual Augmentees, and administers the Navy Individual Augmentee Combat Training Course and Warrior Transition Program
      Task Force 57, (dual-hatted as Task Force 72) Patrol and Reconnaissance Force (P-3 and EP-3 Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Aircraft)
      Task Group 57.1
      Task Group 57.2 - in October 2006, consisted of VP-8, VP-9, VP-16, and VP-46.[8]
      Task Force 58, Maritime Surveillance Force (Northern Persian Gulf)
      Task Force 59, Expeditionary Force/Contingency Force (when required, e.g. July–August 2006 Lebanon evacuation operation, in conjunction with Joint Task Force Lebanon) In February 2007 it was conducting Maritime Security Operations[9] and as of Nov. 2, 2007, it was running a crisis management exercise.
      [edit]Coalition Forces Maritime Component Command
      Together with Naval Forces Central Command, Fifth Fleet oversees five naval task forces monitoring maritime activity:
      Combined Task Force 158 in the North Persian Gulf that protects the Iraqi oil terminals of ABOT and KAAOT; now CTF IM [2]
      Combined Task Force 150 that patrols from Hormuz, halfway across the Arabia Sea, South as far as the Seychelles, through the Gulf of Aden, up through the strait between Djibouti and Yemen known as the Bab Al Mandeb and into the Red Sea and, finally, around the Horn of Africa;
      Combined Task Force 152 patrols the Persian Gulf from the northern end where area of responsibility of CTF 158 ends and down to the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran where the area of responsibility for CTF 150 begins;
      CTF 151 patrols mostly the same area as CTF 150 but is primarily focused on deterring and disrupting Somali pirate attack on leisure boats and commercial shipping;
      CTF 52 (as above) patrols the same area as CTF 152 but is focused on countermining/demining activity.[10]
      not to mention all the ABCA and NATO assets floating in the region. Why even my own miniscule country manages to keep an ANZAC class there for half the time.


      This discussion is about keeping the straits of Hormuz open, yes? Did the 5th Fleet and others slip your memory or did you simply not know about them.
      In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

      Leibniz

      Comment


      • #48
        Vsdoc, you said you are married, have a son et al.

        I say, you need to get laid.

        Or simply go fishing :fish:

        I admire your posts, most of the time I think I'm gonna throw up.
        Last edited by Sharapthai; 17 Dec 11,, 20:16.

        Comment


        • #49
          Originally posted by S2 View Post

          Unless you can show me where the Iranian governing elite have risen beyond the same patheticism I wouldn't embrace your view. By itself, a leadership bearing a legacy to the overthrowers of the Shah has proven no virtue for the Iranian people.
          Sir,I said Arab elites and Iranians .It may be unclear,but I make a separation.Iran can and will exist as a local power without the Mullahs.The Arab states for a long time from now won't be able to be more than versions of what they were until now with every chance they'll be far worse.As for what the Iranian elites have done until now,I'd say they did remarkably well.They sensed the transformation in Iran from religious fervor after the revolution to nationalism from late 80's onwards.They adapted and rode the wave for 2 decades.While their economy is corrupted by the regime,at least they have one,meaning they've been wise enough not to ruin it.Excluding oil and a few attempts in UAE to diversify,their Arab neigbours have a void.They kept a significant educated class.The Arabs have the 1%.Infrastructure can be re-build in 10 years after bombing it.It takes 30 to build a generation assuming the right conditions.
          They managed to expand their influence in Iraq to the point no Iraqi government will move against them without firing a shot openly and that was in the same time you were there.You removing Saddam but letting the job only half done in the rest of ME(that's a a bit overstatement on my part) was part of their luck,and being lucky is more important than being good ,sometimes.
          In the big picture,the Mullahs are the soon to be past.Cyrus the Great may be the future.It's debatable how the Shah would have done it and it is very likely the Iranian standard of living would have been higher.
          I have no love for the theocracy and I wish them what I wish for communists.But like in their case,I dislike how they did,but I also have to take note of what they did.

          There's something else.I don't know how wishful thinking it is.The fundamental problem in Islam is the strugle between secularists and islamists.The fundamental divide in the ME is the divide between Iranians and Arabs.Against the rise of Islamism an Iran where fundamentalism is declining may be an asset in the long run.
          Those who know don't speak
          He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

          Comment


          • #50
            Parihaka, et al,

            I was not counting ships at sea, since they are not permanently stationed in Arab/Persian territory.
            Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
            Och really laddie?

            You seem to have forgotten the United States 5th Fleet


            not to mention all the ABCA and NATO assets floating in the region. Why even my own miniscule country manages to keep an ANZAC class there for half the time.


            This discussion is about keeping the straits of Hormuz open, yes? Did the 5th Fleet and others slip your memory or did you simply not know about them.
            (COMMENT)

            The fleet is there to wave the flag. It is part of the older hegemonic strategy. If we abandon the basing and stationing arrangement, we can redistribute forces to real locals of strategic national interest.

            We need to abandon our allies for hire, and go to support our allies that don't require a payoff.

            Most Respectfully,
            R

            Comment


            • #51
              Unconfirmed: Iran claims to arrest CIA agent

              STORY HIGHLIGHTS
              The alleged spy had served in Iraq and Afghanistan, state media says
              Iran claimed 12 CIA "spies" were arrested in November
              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

              Comment


              • #52
                I think we are looking at it too constrained.

                My feeling is there is an underlying fear that drives the focus for Iran and it does not revolve around U.S. as much as creating an internal distraction to coalesce around the idea of an external pressure from the enemy thus keeping marginal population (people on the fence) in line.

                The whole shutting the straits is to some degree a lever for China and others whom trade with Iran to give more access vis a vis economy through alleviation of "fear" by making Iran not being alone in the "struggle". It is also a bit of a mutually assured economic destruction here in driving the psychology of if Iran suffers, then everyone suffers. This my feeling is the key point, the problem putting your allies and enemies in the same fallout position is forcing them to come together to disarm your threat in a way. The only thing you win is time and Iran hopes to buy enough time to become nuclear, this doesn't solve the economic instability problem but simply cuts off economic reintegration post facto.

                Overall I get a feeling that the parading of the spy plane and the rhetoric are more internal jockeying for power between various groups that we simply do not see. Suppression of the youth-moderate vote during the past election and some insiders switching outside the powers in charge to compete seemed like the broiler blowing out steam before the food inside goes to the ceiling. My guess is the extreme centralization of power inside Iran simply stifles anyone unconnected with the regime in their business ventures and so the disparity in wealth grows exponentially. Redistribution is phased out as oil reserves drop and the ability to do it in the future is curtailed this pushes more anger on the ground and creates further instability.
                Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by RoccoR View Post
                  Parihaka, et al,

                  I was not counting ships at sea, since they are not permanently stationed in Arab/Persian territory.
                  (COMMENT)

                  The fleet is there to wave the flag. It is part of the older hegemonic strategy. If we abandon the basing and stationing arrangement, we can redistribute forces to real locals of strategic national interest.

                  We need to abandon our allies for hire, and go to support our allies that don't require a payoff.

                  Most Respectfully,
                  R
                  So you discount the forces actually based in the area to protect the straits of Hormuz and focus on a few shore personnel that will have nothing to do with the possible conflict.
                  The fleet, including the NATO and ABCA components are there to protect the worlds vital interests, including all the gulf states except Iran. Namely the ability for the free and unimpeded flow of energy from those who wish to sell it to those who wish to buy it.
                  As you apparently consider this mere flag waving I'm agog to hear what you consider to be a more useful task than keeping open the most important trade route in the world?
                  Protecting the Bay of Biscay from the Barbary Pirates?
                  In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                  Leibniz

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                    "Brown-shirt fascist" leaves little room for interpretation, as it generally refers only to the Sturmabteilung.

                    In any case, please do not discuss moderating actions in the open forum.
                    I am more than willing to discuss them via PM but the forum guidelines are clear about debating them here on the public forum.
                    I've sent you a PM.

                    S2, clarifying the genesis of "brown shirt fascist" in terms of original reference to the context would be the honorable thing to do here?

                    After all, from where I come, there is honor among enemies.

                    Looking forward to your response.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                      Does it not occur to you that the mere fact China and India are buying Irans oil disproves your notion of American hegemony?
                      Or are you seriously suggesting that oil would be cheaper and more plentiful if Iran were allowed control of the straits?
                      I am suggesting that when it comes to oil, dealing with the US will be no different to dealing with Iran. The US is a middleman between me and the original source of the oil. When you get rid of the middleman, you bring down prices. 10th grade economics. India has been trading with Iran from when the US was still dormant genetic code in British and Dutch and Irish DNA.
                      Last edited by vsdoc; 18 Dec 11,, 07:24.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by vsdoc View Post
                        I am suggesting that when it comes to oil, dealing with the US will be no different to dealing with Iran. The US is a middleman between me and the original source of the oil. When you get rid of the middleman, you bring down prices. 10th grade economics. India has been trading with Iran from when the US was still dormant genetic code in British and Dutch and Irish DNA.
                        How is the US a middleman? Stock Exchange?
                        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by vsdoc View Post
                          I am suggesting that when it comes to oil, dealing with the US will be no different to dealing with Iran. The US is a middleman between me and the original source of the oil.
                          Allowing shipping to pass unfettered through international water ways is raising prices? I thought our evil conspiracy is to keep oil prices artificially low, not high. Why can't conspiracy theorists at least be consistent about the aims of the great evil conspiracy?

                          When you get rid of the middleman, you bring down prices. 10th grade economics. India has been trading with Iran from when the US was still dormant genetic code in British and Dutch and Irish DNA.
                          What a brilliant idea. "Lower" (really???) prices on the 11% of your imports that come from Iran and raise it for the the 52%, from countries not exactly friendly with Iran, that would also have pass through the Straits of Hormuz. I'd say that's great 10th grade economics right there, but then I think your 10th grade teacher would strongly disagree.

                          India - Analysis - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

                          Last edited by citanon; 18 Dec 11,, 09:31.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            All the current affiars related to Iranian Nuclear program indicates that Iran is not ready to give up its nuclear program in spite of all diplomatic pressure & economic sanctions. US & its some west & few of the middle east allies are also determined to stop it from doing it. It is now very obvious that there will be military intervention to resolve the matter. The recent Arab uprising had very little effect on Iran & thus overthrowing the Iranian regime with the help of anti government elements is next to imposible. Thus the only option left is strike on key nuclear facilities. This process might not be as swift as it was for Iraq & might take several days to complete. This will ignite anger inside Iran which will provide pubic moral to go on war against Israel & US. US is far beyond there reach thus they would target Hormuz Strait with their speed boats & Antiship missiles. Iran will not require to have super power to paralize a strait which is just 34 miles wide. Now the big question is what should be the next step for US. Are they ready to risk economy for their strategic goals? If yes when they are planning to do so? Presently there is economic turmoil & US will not try to complicate it further. On the other hand Iran is rapidly moving towards gaining nuclear weapons. Once they are succsessful to achive it ,there is nothing that US can do afterwards.
                            Last edited by alfa2bravo; 18 Dec 11,, 10:26.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by alfa2bravo View Post
                              Once they are succsessful to achive it ,there is nothing that US can do afterwards.
                              And achieve it they will.

                              And the world will come to realise how it is business as usual in spite of that.

                              The US lost all credibility after Iraq and the so-called WMD. No one buys their line anymore - including a large number of their own citizens burdened by years of war.

                              It is an irony not lost on most that it is the US and its policies and conduct around the world that is the catalyst that pushes countries to go nuclear.

                              The US recognizes and takes seriously, in fact appeases, only those nations that have the ability to land nukes on its soil.

                              Once that happens, all else is forgotten.

                              It thus provides added impetus for nations to first protect themselves and then leapfrog the global pecking order by fast-tracking their research from achieving just that. No matter the cost to be paid in the interim as the final aim justifies the means.

                              The last 100 years saw the world becoming a smaller place.

                              The next 20 will see the pond/s shrinking with regard to ballistic capabilities. That is a foregone conclusion. And the US has only itself to thank for that.
                              Last edited by vsdoc; 18 Dec 11,, 13:49.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Its not the US you need to worry about Israel is in more immediate danger should Iran succeed in its nuclear ambitions and so they wont allow it. The US is not going to engage a nuclear power to protect a small nation like Israel alliance or not and they will have recognized this, therefore its in their interests to remove the nuclear threat with or without US support.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X