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Shutting Down the Strait of Hormuz: A Red Team Exercise on Iran's Naval Capabilities

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  • Shutting Down the Strait of Hormuz: A Red Team Exercise on Iran's Naval Capabilities

    Iran's card of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz is generally accepted as being a very viable option for Iran in the event of a proportional threat to them. Despite the fact that such an action would have severe economic repercussions for Iran, they view the global consequences, particularly for their opponents (i.e. US et al) as being worth the pain.

    That being considered, I was curious as to the WAB community's opinion on not only how the international community would react to such an action (A naval response is given) but more importantly how Iran would go about maintaining the Strait's closure. I'm not so much interested in knowing who would "win tactically" (I already know that answer) but rather seeing a realistic scenario play out. It's easy for us to discard such potential scenarios as being a one sided engagement and we trash anyone (often for good reason) that comes in with the fanboy response of "Iran's one billion speedboats and jihad/martyrdom will crush the Imperialist American pigdogs", but for the sake of discussion and learning, why not red team from Iran's perspective?

    Edit: The title is slightly misleading. Obviously Iran closing down the Strait would involve coastal defense cruise missiles, air patrols and other operations that do not fall under the IRIN/IRGCN but they should still be considered.
    Last edited by ace16807; 10 Dec 11,, 09:49.

  • #2
    If one tanker is hit and sunk, then no one will go through as long as the safety cannot be guaranteed. Only 24/7 aerial presence, heavy use of escort ships and invasion could guarantee the needed safety. Iranians do not need to control the Straits, they need to pose credible threat in order to greatly reduce the use of the Straits.

    And then you gotta add following factors-

    Coastal regions that are favourable for hide and seek play for their ground based missile systems.

    Considerable submarine forces, mine warfare capabilities

    A lot of smaller vessels usable for raiding the tankers

    Many of the US assets in the region are within the reach of their ballistic missiles and their missile forces make Saddam´s look like home made rocket force. Both the quantity and quality are obviously far greater.

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    • #3
      That doesn't really answer much in my eyes. We're all well aware that Iran's strategy is based on area denial and asymmetric warfare. We also know that this strategy hinges on their small boat capabilities, limited but critical sub forces (I wouldn't necessarily consider 3 kilo class subs that are in need of refit + some midget subs as being considerable) and mining. The point of this thread is to explore how Iran maintains a credible threat in the face of a possibly multinational naval task force showing up on their doorstep along with a very annoyed Saudi Arabia/Gulf States.

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      • #4
        Unless the multinationals are willing to attack continental Iran, they cannot do much. If they are ready for that and do so, it is total war.. and then naval forces alone are not enough.

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        • #5
          Iranian oil exports get cut off as well. Far to many nations navies that can make that happen. When they cannot enter port or exit without the threat of being sunk then you economically choke them. Closing the Straits can work both ways. Particularly if Iran attempts to close the entire Straight in violation of Maritime Law in which the USN is an agent of as far as enforcing.

          As mentioned in a prior thread 295ft of water depth is not a whole lot to hide a sub. Irans submarines since reported in July 2011 cannot fire missles where as many other countries navies can. When you cannot see what or where it came from who do you blame when something very important goes boom? Like a major pipeline carrying their oil to its export moorings or refinery or radar sites or even worse.;)
          Last edited by Dreadnought; 13 Dec 11,, 03:04.
          Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
            Iranian oil exports get cut off as well. Far to many nations navies that can make that happen. When they cannot enter port or exit without the threat of being sunk then you economically choke them. Closing the Straits can work both ways. Particularly if Iran attempts to close the entire Straight in violation of Maritime Law in which the USN is an agent of as far as enforcing.

            As mentioned in a prior thread 295ft of water depth is not a whole lot to hide a sub. Irans submarines since reported in July 2011 cannot fire missles where as many other countries navies can. When you cannot see what or where it came from who do you blame when something very important goes boom? Like a major pipeline carrying their oil to its export moorings or refinery or radar sites or even worse.;)
            This is the subs the US Navy will have to deal with plus a handful of Kilo boats if they still run...







            Tiny by US standards and if I recall correctly these are no bigger than the Nautilus Ride they used to have at Disney.
            Attached Files

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            • #7
              Iran succeeded in doing one thing with the Hormuz announcement...raising oil prices 3$ a barrel.

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              • #8
                Blocking the straits of Hormuz would rub everyone the wrong way, enemy and ally to Iran alike. I wouldn't be surprised if China supported the naval task force's mission...maybe even Chinese ships.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by mustavaris View Post
                  If one tanker is hit and sunk, then no one will go through as long as the safety cannot be guaranteed. Only 24/7 aerial presence, heavy use of escort ships and invasion could guarantee the needed safety. Iranians do not need to control the Straits, they need to pose credible threat in order to greatly reduce the use of the Straits.
                  quite a few tankers were hit in the Tanker war back in the 80's.. (which is why most of them were reflagged under the USA flag) that being said, I really don't think that hitting a few tankers will stop the flow of oil exiting the straits...(over 70 tankers were attacked from 1984-1988)

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