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Thread: Egypt's ElBaradei: Liberals 'decimated' in vote

  1. #16
    A Self Important Senior Contributor troung's Avatar
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    Dude,let DE be the eternal optimist.I
    Optimists were those people who at the start thought the tweeters were anything more than a essentially fringe minority of Egypt. Delusion is for people who still hold out hope after the Islamists crushed everyone at the ballot box.

    ============
    This was wrongheaded optimism...
    http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/ara...ing-power.html
    I think the idea that the MB can win is mubarak-era thinking. We are now in the post-mubarak era. And the MB isn't the only alternative to his regime. Therefore if ppl have real choice the story should be different as there will be alternatives to choose from. If they have elections they should have intl monitors so it can be shown to have been conducted in as transparent a manner as possible. Baradei has countered the perception of the MB portrayed in the press, i'm not sure to what extent he's being an opportunist there or whether its genuine. These ppl have just fought one regime, they aren't going to settle for another military or religious one. What was the role of the MB in this current uprising ? Not identifiable AFAICT. That means they are on the same playing field as the other parties.

    The MB are not taking control of the country.
    Last edited by troung; 24 Dec 11, at 17:44.
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

  2. #17
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    C'mon man,don't preach to the choir.I had my disagreement with DE about the whole affair.But since he's on my buddy list I won't call him delusional.No better friend etc... So far,we ,the doomsayers are on the path to victory.Problem is a response is not yet visible.we can be right all the way.Talk is cheap.Action is needed.For the ''optimists'' this is easy.They'll do nothing,hoping the Arabs will sort their affairs and become like ''us''.For the ''realists'' things are tougher.They also do nothing,because doing what's needed requires a complete remodelling of our societies in the first place.Societal delusion no. 1 is that all people are the same.Delusion 2 is that democracies never go to war with other democracies.Delusion 3 is that democracy=freedom.Delusion 4 is that mob rule=the finest thing since icecream in a hot summer day.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  3. #18
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    What part of 'head in the sand' doesn't translate?
    I note you did not answer the two points i asked you to clarify.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    They did (the Shah) and they have gotten the Mullahs, just like Egypt is on the way to get.
    Where is it preordained that it will turn out like Iran ?

    Iran is a theocracy, Sunni's dont do that sort of thing. The closest you get was the Taliban, that too successful only when supported by their neighbour. I don't see any Talibs in Egypt do you.

    You think this is '78. I'm not sure if its '68 or '89, would like to think its the latter

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    The Mullahs are sitting back because they have this in any election. Islamists represent the people of Egypt, not the tweeters.
    Like communists the people of China ie in name only. According to your earlier article the salafis already think the MB are sellouts.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    The Egyptian public stands beside the Mullahs not the tweeters.
    Yes, what i want to know is what that translates into exactly. You don't seem to be able to tell us that other than we must approach this with loads of fear & foreboding. That part of your narrative comes through very clear.

    Help me to understand why broads, booze & beaches matters more than jobs. Because i don't think the man on the street is going to when he has less to put on the table.

    I see another angle to this type of reporting. It puts whatever adminstration that eventually materialises in Egypt on their toes. They have to constantly show they are not or will not do what they are portrayed to be if they hope to attract any of the much needed capital from abroad that Egypt needs. They will have to moderate their actions if not their rhetoric if they hope to be successful in office. If not they're out come the next election cycle. This is why i think what happens in the future election cycle is more important.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    That is aid for the armed forces, so unless they pull an Algeria the army will be run by the Mullahs.
    Interesting you mention that, the Algerians put an Islamist party in power but at the time the west ie France was not prepared for that so of course the military had to step in. This brings me to the next point. Whether the west is today prepared for the same or whether its still stuck in the old school thinking that encouraged by the dictators themselves was they were the only thing that stood betwen fanatical Islam and stability.

    I know for a fact that you support this view, i think that the time for that thinking is over. There would have been no Arab spring otherwise.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    No they probably won't as they secure power. And who would wish to go somewhere where the issue is more then likely in doubt at best?
    oh, there will be no doubt it either happens or it does not. How long for.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    People might finally learn why we didn't want people from this part of the world to vote
    Here we go. The main weakness in your thinking. Democracy is not meant to work everywhere. Why ? because its cultural

    ...or as Wolfowitz put it, non-muslims telling the world how good muslims ought to behave.

    I would rather these people came to power, fail and be relegated to the streets like in Pakistan where they never seen to get more than 15% of the vote. This aura of Islamist party needs to be put to the test and seen for what it really is.

    Oh and thanks for bringing up my early comments on the subject. Its still not clear to me whether the military in Egypt will go back to the barracks after the election is over. So des the MB take over the country or merely share in the power.

    Quote Originally Posted by troungs article
    The election is the first since Mubarak’s Feb. 11 ouster and is the freest in Egypt’s modern history. The 498-seat People’s Assembly, the parliament’s lower house, will be tasked, in theory, with forming a 100-member assembly to draft a new constitution.

    But its actual role remains unclear. The military council that has ruled since Mubarak’s fall says the parliament will not be representative of all of Egypt, and should not have sole power over the drafting of the constitution. Last week, the military appointed a 30-member council to oversee the process.
    Bingo!
    Last edited by Double Edge; 24 Dec 11, at 20:49.

  4. #19
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    C'mon man,don't preach to the choir.I had my disagreement with DE about the whole affair.But since he's on my buddy list I won't call him delusional.No better friend etc...
    Am always interested in throwing ideas at the Mihais meat-grinder

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    So far,we ,the doomsayers are on the path to victory.
    Define this victory. Is it like the domino theory of the cold war. If so you do see the irony. One was the fear of illiberalism by communism and therefore had to be opposed or contained. Here the people are getting a chance to vote and that itself is being held in question. In the good old days it might have made sense to have dictators in power as that meant less chances for communism to take hold but am not seeing the wisdom of that same thinking today.

    In a replay of Uncle Joe at the Pope, how many divisions does Islam have

    Look, my position here stems from the fact i grew up in an Arab country and never thought i'd see the day where these people rose up against their authoritarian leaders and demanded to be first class citizens. Of course i want to see this movement carried through to its logical conclusion.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Problem is a response is not yet visible.we can be right all the way.Talk is cheap.Action is needed.For the ''optimists'' this is easy.They'll do nothing,hoping the Arabs will sort their affairs and become like ''us''.
    Won't quite say become like you but peole dont stay dumb & powerless for long.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    For the ''realists'' things are tougher.They also do nothing,because doing what's needed requires a complete remodelling of our societies in the first place.Societal delusion no. 1 is that all people are the same.Delusion 2 is that democracies never go to war with other democracies.Delusion 3 is that democracy=freedom.Delusion 4 is that mob rule=the finest thing since icecream in a hot summer day.
    1. not the same but rather for different people to work together. Allowing for safety valves so different people can blow of steam via protests & elections. A dictatorship on the other hand tries to make everyone the same.
    2. not a supporter of this one.
    3. more freedom than with any other system, ultimately more stable which is the main reason why it gets promoted and should be promoted.
    4. democracy is mob rule, whereas rule by law and with the appropriate protections mitigates away from mob rule. Whatever constitution the Egyptians come up with will be crucial.

    Oh and i can make a realist argument to support my views here.

    Classical political realism holds that it is fundamentally the nature of man that pushes states and individuals to act in a way that places interests over ideologies
    Last edited by Double Edge; 24 Dec 11, at 21:49.

  5. #20
    Contributor NUS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Societal delusion no. 1 is that all people are the same.Delusion 2 is that democracies never go to war with other democracies.Delusion 3 is that democracy=freedom.Delusion 4 is that mob rule=the finest thing since icecream in a hot summer day.
    Mihas for the president of EU! (Or dictator, if you like it more.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge
    3. more freedom than with any other system, ultimately more stable
    Roman Republic (and later Empire) lasted for 500 years each, feudal empires are not far from Romans in stability. And i will be extrimly surprised if current form of liberal democracy will survive next 10 years.
    Winter is coming.

  6. #21
    A Self Important Senior Contributor troung's Avatar
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    Like communists the people of China ie in name only. According to your earlier article the salafis already think the MB are sellouts.
    One exterme party which got about half of the vote is thought soft by another more extreme party which got twenty percent. They both totally crushed the people you support and thought had a chance.

    You think this is '78. I'm not sure if its '68 or '89, would like to think its the latter
    Your thinking is totally muddled. Islamists are winning.

    Bingo!
    Your bingo point is the vain hope that the unpopular and unelected army will somehow trump the will of the people of Egypt by fiat. Back to square one.

    I would rather these people came to power, fail and be relegated to the streets like in Pakistan where they never seen to get more than 15% of the vote. This aura of Islamist party needs to be put to the test and seen for what it really is.
    They have not left in Iran and will not leave in Egypt once they get in power.

    If so you do see the irony. One was the fear of illiberalism by communism and therefore had to be opposed or contained. Here the people are getting a chance to vote and that itself is being held in question. In the good old days it might have made sense to have dictators in power as that meant less chances for communism to take hold but am not seeing the wisdom of that same thinking today.
    You are wrong - this would be let letting all of our allies fall to Communism and then claiming it as a win.

    Yes, what i want to know is what that translates into exactly. You don't seem to be able to tell us that other than we must approach this with loads of fear & foreboding. That part of your narrative comes through very clear.
    They have already voted, they don't stand beside the pie in the sky crap about freedom and a liberal state that the media shoveled out, they voted for Mullahs.

    Whether the west is today prepared for the same or whether its still stuck in the old school thinking that encouraged by the dictators themselves was they were the only thing that stood betwen fanatical Islam and stability.
    They were.

    Oh and thanks for bringing up my early comments on the subject. Its still not clear to me whether the military in Egypt will go back to the barracks after the election is over. So des the MB take over the country or merely share in the power.
    You claimed then the MB were effectively nobodies, today they are the largest party in Egypt. Short of the army annulling the results and a bloody civil war the MB is going to be taking charge. Either Mubarak round 2, the Taliban, or the next Pakistan.

    ==============
    Had the media done their jobs and reported rather then mentally masturbated maybe the stakes would have been clearer.
    Last edited by troung; 25 Dec 11, at 06:22.
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

  7. #22
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    One exterme party which got about half of the vote is thought soft by another more extreme party which got twenty percent. They both totally crushed the people you support and thought had a chance.
    MB got 36.6 % of the vote, still a way from half. Together with the salafis they make up 61%.

    40 million of Egypts 70 million lives in poverty, so this is where those votes came from. Maybe they think the Islamists are the only party that isn't corrupt to the hilt and can deliver. These guys are always the first to the scene in any crisis the way missionary groups deliver services in African countries with dysfunctional governments.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Your bingo point is the vain hope that the unpopular and unelected army will somehow trump the will of the people of Egypt by fiat. Back to square one.
    Err no, it means there is a control and the army acts as a moderating presence just like in Turkey. This play is open for now, how much of a dampner do they play or not.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    They have not left in Iran and will not leave in Egypt once they get in power.
    They stay in power so long as they deliver. There is no chance of a theocracy.

    You never did nor do you have a say in what happens in post revolutionary Iran but thats not true for Egypt.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    You are wrong - this would be let letting all of our allies fall to Communism and then claiming it as a win.
    Ah, i see, once the Islamists win they trash whatever got them into power and hold on into perpetuity. Never mind about that empty plate, just pray and all wishes will be granted. Which ever party that comes to power in the genral elections a year from now will have an unenviable enormous task ahead of them.

    Who says the army goes back to the barracks ? they still remain the wildcard.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    They have already voted, they don't stand beside the pie in the sky crap about freedom and a liberal state that the media shoveled out, they voted for Mullahs.
    And democracy means when mullahs dont get the vote somebody else replaces them. yes ? otherwise you'd have your point. But thats five years into the future hence too early to call.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    They were.
    Their time was over

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    You claimed then the MB were effectively nobodies, today they are the largest party in Egypt. Short of the army annulling the results and a bloody civil war the MB is going to be taking charge. Either Mubarak round 2, the Taliban, or the next Pakistan.
    Never said the MB were nobodies. Have said i did not expect them to win as much as they did which i will concede.

    Interesting, no possibility of a Turkey in your outlook.

    Would suggest you watch your own intelligence commitee hearing on the MB which i posted many months back here. Lot less hype and more background.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Had the media done their jobs and reported rather then mentally masturbated maybe the stakes would have been clearer.
    It was quite a momentous event. Of course idealism is going to get the upper hand. Its after the revolution that the hard work begins.

    Why did the west allow these movements to proceed and at times actually go out of their way and promote it ie Libya. What is the game here. That tells me the west is ready for these sorts of govts and that it ain't that big a deal. This is why i think your worldview is outdated.

  8. #23
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUS View Post
    Roman Republic (and later Empire) lasted for 500 years each, feudal empires are not far from Romans in stability.
    Fine, but the fashion changed last century towards more representation. Almost went to the brink of WW3 in defense of the idea.

    Quote Originally Posted by NUS View Post
    And i will be extrimly surprised if current form of liberal democracy will survive next 10 years.
    You're referring to the 17 in the EC. Yes, if they get appointed leaders then you will be technically right. This will still cause less unrest relatively spekaing than if the Euro failed. It will be a compromise to buy time, time for Europe to grow again.

    But thats only for those 17 countries not the rest of the world.

  9. #24
    A Self Important Senior Contributor troung's Avatar
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    Ah, i see, once the Islamists win they trash whatever got them into power and hold on into perpetuity. Never mind about that empty plate, just pray and all wishes will be granted. Which ever party that comes to power in the genral elections a year from now will have an unenviable enormous task ahead of them.
    Where have you been you entire life? I'm serious, I tried to copy and paste that a few times but your delicate thoughts floated off my screen.

    And democracy means when mullahs dont get the vote somebody else replaces them. yes ? otherwise you'd have your point. But thats five years into the future hence too early to call.
    Bullshit cop out. That assumes they lose and puts the issue far into the future to duck the fact that you and others like you were horribly wrong and now wish to change the goal posts.

    Err no, it means there is a control and the army acts as a moderating presence just like in Turkey. This play is open for now, how much of a dampner do they play or not.
    That won't last. Hasn't lasted in Turkey as shown by events, and won't last long in Egypt unless they pull an Algeria and annul the results. And its down right hypocritical for you to jump for joy months ago and now say all is well in the land of skinny jeans and twitter as long as the army suppresses the public's will.

    Interesting, no possibility of a Turkey in your outlook.
    Nope.

    It was quite a momentous event. Of course idealism is going to get the upper hand. Its after the revolution that the hard work begins.
    They should have honestly reported on the people to inform the American public as to if we should have been cheering this BS on or supporting an ally.

    Why did the west allow these movements to proceed and at times actually go out of their way and promote it ie Libya. What is the game here. That tells me the west is ready for these sorts of govts and that it ain't that big a deal. This is why i think your worldview is outdated.
    Sakorzy stepped on his own dick and recognized them too quickly and the media sold up the rebels as good people. Their horrible conduct and terrorist ties showed how badly their supporters lied to the world.

    ========
    A broken clock is at least right twice a day - these protests smoked out a lot of people who failed to even manage that. All of the crap about pro-western youth and other BS has instead put our actual enemies into power across the region.
    Last edited by troung; 25 Dec 11, at 20:28.
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

  10. #25
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Where have you been you entire life? I'm serious, I tried to copy and paste that a few times but your delicate thoughts floated off my screen.
    Try and rephrase then.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Bullshit cop out. That assumes they lose and puts the issue far into the future to duck the fact that you and others like you were horribly wrong and now wish to change the goal posts.
    No cop out troung.

    Now that the Islamists have a 61% say in how the constitution gets drafted we accept and deal with it. Its as you say, the Egyptians have spoken.

    Five years to the next election how are they going to fare. Meanwhile what are these parties going to do to uplift their long time suffering people. Egypt's economy is one quarter the size of Turkey for similar head count. Lots of scope for improvement here.

    I will repeat again, in a democratic setup the party in office has to work to stay in office otherwise they are out or will be forced into a coalition govt. This is the bigger and more important difference compared to the past.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    That won't last. Hasn't lasted in Turkey as shown by events, and won't last long in Egypt unless they pull an Algeria and annul the results. And its down right hypocritical for you to jump for joy months ago and now say all is well in the land of skinny jeans and twitter as long as the army suppresses the public's will.
    What hasn't lasted in Turkey ? the AKP won for the first time since ages. The CHP is in opposition now. You mean to tell me the AKP is going to be a permanent fixture from now on. Get real.

    I would not be in favour of the Egyptian army pulling an Algeria.

    Am not saying all is well, stop reducing my position into a simplistic stereotype. The liberals have suffered a temporary setback. Many said the Islamist parties were the best organised to take advantage of the situation. What you neglect is see is that over time other parties can also build up support. The whole point of a democratic setup is choice where none existed in the past.

    What matters is elections remain open & free from rigging.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Nope.
    We shall see

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    They should have honestly reported on the people to inform the American public as to if we should have been cheering this BS on or supporting an ally.
    There were numerous articles posted here expressing doubts over the outcome. The skeptical reports were in the minority.

    You have a problem with free & open elections in that part of the world. You do not believe democracy will work with those people. The biggest antidote to Islamic terror presented itself on a silver platter and you reject it. Does not say much about your confidence in the ideas you were willing to defend with much blood & treasure does it. And you accuse me of moving the goalposts !!

    There is a HUGE difference between imposing democracy and allowing it to spring up from grassroots which is the latter case in Egypt.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Sakorzy stepped on his own dick and recognized them too quickly and the media sold up the rebels as good people. Their horrible conduct and terrorist ties showed how badly their supporters lied to the world.
    Ah, but your govt along with a signficant number of others recognises the NTC as well.

    There is a bigger game at play here. Jury is still out on why Libya was liberated. There does not appear to be any valid military reason for it.

    You can say that with Gaddafi gone the sense is that the people should be empowered. Gaddafi in place threatens to destabisise the peoples movements in Tunisia & Egypt and from there the wider Arab world. That to me is the longer game being played here as opposed to getting overly worked up with short term Islamist victories which are in no way permanent. You did not install an Islamist dictatorship in these countries.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    A broken clock is at least right twice a day - these protests smoked out a lot of people who failed to even manage that. All of the crap about pro-western youth and other BS has instead put our actual enemies into power across the region.
    In a free & open setup all sorts of characters will crawl out from the woodwork. The idea is for them to compete with others on a level playing field. You can shape the outcome if you keep an open mind and stay engaged.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 26 Dec 11, at 13:00.

  11. #26
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    DE,the issue isn't democracy,is geopolitics.They can make a Switzerland over there,our interests will diverge .Space under the sun is a relatively rare commodity.And by us I mean the West,just to make clear my stance.
    What they will make there however is another topic.Troung,myself and all the sceptics have little faith in the sustainability of a democracy there.Yes,the 1% overthrew the dictator.Egypt has generations before it catches Iran in creating an educated middle class and we all witnessed 2009.The tweeters will get stomped by the stupid masses if they'll try to move against an established islamic government.Majority wins and as the good Colonel said once,every society is a democracy,by ballot or by bullet.Fists suffice in this case.
    Egypt has long to catch Turkey,but the islamists aren't conditioned by that.All they need is literally to put bread on the table,not a car in the garage or a PC in every house.Putting bread requires only a little less inefficiency and corruption and the Islamic parties tend to be just that.Look at Hezbollah and Shabaab.They were given crappy cards to play,but they played them well,to their credit.Egypt has higher standards than S Lebanon or Somalia,but the principle stays the same,IMO.

    Lets see how many of the generals today will keep their job a year or two from now.Even more important,lets see what kind of colonels will get promotions.As for the junior officers and the rank and file,they can't be much different than the rest of the nation.Discipline has it's limits.

    Btw,if you don't mind,in where did you grew?What amuses me to no end is how different people reach vastly different conclusions based on the same intel.I guess circumstances dictate which one is the right.In good times,your ilk prospers,while the paranoids like me suffer in silence.Now,however,Eris rules the world,not Harmonia
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  12. #27
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUS View Post
    Mihas for the president of EU! (Or dictator, if you like it more.)


    Roman Republic (and later Empire) lasted for 500 years each, feudal empires are not far from Romans in stability. And i will be extrimly surprised if current form of liberal democracy will survive next 10 years.
    I'd like to be dictator of EU.To tear it down.They'll make cheesy movies after me,in which my character will be flawless(I'm not) and he'll get the super model about 10 minutes into the movie,just by looking at her.In real world you need to chase her long and hard,besides them not being all that good looking.

    It's way off-topic,but IMO the democracy of today is obsolete.We have the technical means to spread the power more widely and make the decision process more adapted to the speed of modern society.We can literally return to the Athenian origins of democracy,where practically every citizen had the opportunity to be at least once a member of the executive body.Besides voting for all matters of public interest in real(or almost real )time.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  13. #28
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Here's a sobering post from Sandmonkey after a two month hiatus, he was out campaigning and managing campaigns. It raises the question of whether the military will go in to the barracks or not. And whether the elections were really free & fair.

    The Egyptian model for now seems to give the military even more power than in Turkey. Take a look at the dynamics between the various groups expressed.

    troung goes on about putting enemies into power but at the same time does not realise that the military is the biggest enemy of the MB, having persecuted them for decades.

    So many times I have met people who are terrified at the electoral successes of the Islamic parties in the election, and while they acknowledge that there “must be a deal” between the SCAF and the Islamists, they sit back with a knowing smile and tell me : “But you know what? The SCAF are not stupid. They will screw the Muslim Brotherhood over. They are just waiting for the right moment and they will destroy them. You just wait and see!”

    I tell them that they are disgusting for thinking this way. That they are like a raped woman who is rooting for her rapist to rape the other woman who got away so that she wouldn’t be the only raped one.
    So, why would the military be “helping” the Salafi Noor Party get votes? Well, mainly because they invented them. It was a match made possible by State-Security, who probably alerted the military of how reliable were the salafis in their previous “cooperation” to scare the living shit out of the population into submission and supporting the regime. Remember the All Saints church attack, the one that happened this New Year? Remember the documents proving that our very own State Security had arranged it to take place to force the Coptic population to support Mubarak? Yeah, it’s kind of like that. Only on a higher level.

    Ensuring that the Salafis have a big chunk of the parliament (one that is neither logical or feasible considering their numbers in Egypt) achieves two goals:

    1) Provide a mechanism for the security apparatus to keep the Muslim Brotherhood in check if they ever thought of using religion as a weapon against SCAF (As far as the salafis are concerned, the MB are secular infidels) and

    2) to really frame the choice in our (and the international community’s) heads between a “Islamist country or a military regime”, because, let’s face it, The MB are not scary enough for the general population. But the Salafis? Terrifying shit. You add to that the piece of news that the average Egyptian duty-free buying alcohol limit over night went from 4 bottles to a single bottle, and that they now have a “women only” queue in the Airport, and you have the Upper-class and Upper-middle class – alongside with the west- pissing in their pants and psychologically ready to accept military rule over Islamic one.

    A fake and a false choice, especially that new parliament will have no power what so ever over anything.

    I love it when a fellow revolutionary asks me : ” I don’t understand what’s going on. Why are the Police/Military shooting and killing people and prolonging street conflicts in Mohamed Mahmoud/ ElQasr Eleiny? What do they want? What’s the big plan?”

    Well, to put it simply, The Big plan is the same as the immediate plan: they want you dead. It’s not that they want to kill opposition; they want to kill the opposition, literally. This country ain’t big enough for the both of you, and they have everything to lose. And they have guns. And the media. And all the keys of power. And you want to overthrow them. How do you think they will react to that? Give you cookies?
    Here is a fun fact:
    - about 40% of the people head to the polls not knowing who they will vote for, and are simply there because they are afraid of the 500LE fine they must pay for abstaining to vote;

    - about another 50% go to the polls with a piece of paper that has the names & symbols of the people they will vote for, people that they don’t know, or their history or anything about them. They simply asked their friends and they told them that these are “good people to vote for”, and this is true across the board in all classes, upper and lower, uneducated and educated.

    And you can’t blame them really, because each district has over 100 candidates fighting over 2 seats and only 4 weeks to campaign. If you are the average new voter, there is no time to meet or evaluate or educate yourself about all of them in order to choose objectively between them. I know people that voted for me simply because I was the only candidate they met. I am not kidding.
    Tahrir became an international symbol, thanks to the foreign media, and everyone believed that the regime was brought down because of the people in Tahrir, even though every revolutionary knows that the regime was brought down because the revolution was at every square in the country, not just Tahrir. But, amazingly, we also believed the Hype that the media created. We believed in the Symbol, and it became a fixture in our thinking. If there is a problem, go to Tahrir. Hell, centralize the entire revolution into Tahrir, and instead of going to every other square and concentrating our bases in the country, we demanded – like the chauvinist Cairiens that we are- for them to come to us. That as long as we have many numbers in Tahrir, we will get somewhere, we will bring down the regime.

    But here is the truth: Tahrir is not a magical land, one which if we occupy we can hold all the magical keys of our kingdom and bring down the evil regime of whomever is in Power. Tahrir is a square. A piece of land. A symbol, but a piece of land nonetheless. And just because it worked before, it doesn’t mean it will work again. We are like an old married couple trying to recapture the magic of their early days by going to the same place they went to on their honeymoon, or dance to the same song they fell in love to, and discovering that it’s not working because there are real problems that need to be resolved. Symbols are nice, but they don’t solve anything.
    Too early to call ?
    Last edited by Double Edge; 26 Dec 11, at 19:46.

  14. #29
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    DE,the issue isn't democracy,is geopolitics.They can make a Switzerland over there,our interests will diverge .Space under the sun is a relatively rare commodity.And by us I mean the West,just to make clear my stance.
    Agree with the bolded bit, question is whether it can be managed or not. If you assume the worst then no. But is that right view to take so early on without a cold war backdrop.

    Another point to mention when comparing Iran vs Egypt. Would Khomeni have ever risen to prominence if not for '53 and a dictator installed. Thats not happened in Egypt (yet). If it does then you turn Egypt into Iran.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    What they will make there however is another topic.Troung,myself and all the sceptics have little faith in the sustainability of a democracy there.Yes,the 1% overthrew the dictator.Egypt has generations before it catches Iran in creating an educated middle class and we all witnessed 2009.The tweeters will get stomped by the stupid masses if they'll try to move against an established islamic government.Majority wins and as the good Colonel said once,every society is a democracy,by ballot or by bullet.Fists suffice in this case.
    Egypt has long to catch Turkey,but the islamists aren't conditioned by that.All they need is literally to put bread on the table,not a car in the garage or a PC in every house.Putting bread requires only a little less inefficiency and corruption and the Islamic parties tend to be just that.Look at Hezbollah and Shabaab.They were given crappy cards to play,but they played them well,to their credit.Egypt has higher standards than S Lebanon or Somalia,but the principle stays the same,IMO.
    Also agree. But how will they put food on the table with the funds they have. Will it be enough, they have to keep on generating more and in doing so raising the standards across the country. As opposed to a military dictatorship that can get away with a lot more because it has guns. Though as we've seen there are limits to that power.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Lets see how many of the generals today will keep their job a year or two from now.Even more important,lets see what kind of colonels will get promotions.As for the junior officers and the rank and file,they can't be much different than the rest of the nation.Discipline has it's limits.
    Will the army go back to the barracks ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Btw,if you don't mind,in where did you grew?What amuses me to no end is how different people reach vastly different conclusions based on the same intel.I guess circumstances dictate which one is the right.In good times,your ilk prospers,while the paranoids like me suffer in silence.Now,however,Eris rules the world,not Harmonia
    I don't know who is right just supporting the position that maximises freedom. Anything that messes with it is to be opposed.

  15. #30
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    All I see are two pages of threads to prove the very same point as to what most in the west dont believe in..... Allowing religion to inhibit politics as law. Once you do, you are doomed as a democracy in many cases. A religious influence in the common good?, Yes, absolutely & positively no matter which or how many that may be. But as rule of law? Not a chance. You will remain piss poor as a nation and you will never see the full potential and knowledge of your people or younger generations to come. Same old men with the same old idealisms. Women are not equal, cant drive, be seen with etc etc etc. Question their authority and you know what will happen.

    If the people agree to be led by those who execute religion in the name of fear, control, removing your individual rights, laws etc then you deserve exactly what you get.

    However at that point can you really call it your "faith" or "religion" anymore then you call it your "government"? Think about it.

    Its all about power and what better way to control then to use religion as a tool of power. Look around the past several decades and conflict are awash in it.

    Religion is a spiritual belief and a faith, no matter which you choose to follow or even if you choose to follow one. It is not civilian law nor should be used to control a population, their communication with the outside world as a whole or learning ability nor be used to either kill or torture you as a human being. We are all different, no matter which culture or hemisphere you are from.
    Last edited by Dreadnought; 26 Dec 11, at 22:24.
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

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