British Ambassador expelled from Tehran

[JAD_333]

Related? Complicating?

Lebanon: Rockets prompt Israel response - Middle East - World - The Independent

[JAD_333]

Totally agree.

So, USA had better cards to attack Iran, but they didn't. Why?

Jimmy Carter.

Or to put it in other words... Besides UK alone is not able to send troops to Iran, why would they escalate this any further?

You already have action and reaction. UK sanctions Iran central bank. This seriously threatens Iran's economy. Iran reacts by lashing out at nearest and easiest UK target...sovereign embassy ground. Then expels UK ambassador. UK expels Iranian ambassador. Next move? EU pulls ambassadors. Then we see.

Meanwhile, a bill is speeding through Congress for US to also sanction Iran's central bank. EU central banks all follow suit. This is maximum economic pressure that can be applied to Iran, short of a land, air and sea blockade. Buyers of Iranian oil cannot complete transactions. Hard times for Iranian people coming. Iranian people pressure government. Iran offers new measures to ensure compliance with NPT? That's the hope.

[dave lukins]

Buyers of Iranian oil cannot complete transactions. Hard times for Iranian people coming. Iranian people pressure government. Iran offers new measures to ensure compliance with NPT? That's the hope.

Methinks oil embargo will be next on the cards but how will this effect the prices? It is already sky high so many will not see this as a good move.

[YellowFever]

Related? Complicating?

Lebanon: Rockets prompt Israel response - Middle East - World - The Independent

Most likely related.

Looks like Iran has reached into it's bag of tricks and is pulling every string it knows how.

The question is, will the West let them get away with it.....again.

[Mihais]

Problem is sanctions cannot go forever.Iran is a bigger oil producer than Iraq and the economic circumstances are also different fom the 90's,for the worse.Iran knows this,we know this.The rest of OPEC may increase production to keep the price in check,but prices will follow panic.Right now the global economy is staring in the abyss and a spike in oil prices,particularly in winter,may give it the push.
Long term this may be the better choice,but there are a lot of elections in 2012.And to call the spade by its name,the voting crowd is mostly represented by those we treat here as chewing toys,as elitistic as it may sound.

[JAD_333]

Methinks oil embargo will be next on the cards but how will this effect the prices? It is already sky high so many will not see this as a good move.

Yeah but if you mean an embargo by the importers, e.g. EU countries, that would amount to only 445M BBLS a day, roughly a fifth of Iran's daily export flow. The Saudis can cover that amount without breaking a sweat. So could the US. In fact the Saudis could cover all of Iran's daily export flow of about 2.5M BBLs/day, for a while at least. Prices were mixed today; some up, some down.

[JAD_333]

Most likely related.

Looks like Iran has reached into it's bag of tricks and is pulling every string it knows how.

The question is, will the West let them get away with it.....again.

It all depends on what you mean by getting away with it. Those who think we should act militarily may think so. But there is more than one way to skin a cat. Iran is being squeezed and squeezed little by little. Either they say enough and start dealing seriously or something will finally pop, most likely internally.

[vsdoc]

You already have action and reaction. UK sanctions Iran central bank. This seriously threatens Iran's economy. Iran reacts by lashing out at nearest and easiest UK target...sovereign embassy ground. Then expels UK ambassador. UK expels Iranian ambassador. Next move? EU pulls ambassadors. Then we see.

Meanwhile, a bill is speeding through Congress for US to also sanction Iran's central bank. EU central banks all follow suit. This is maximum economic pressure that can be applied to Iran, short of a land, air and sea blockade. Buyers of Iranian oil cannot complete transactions. Hard times for Iranian people coming. Iranian people pressure government. Iran offers new measures to ensure compliance with NPT? That's the hope.

Jad we did touch on this in the other big (closed) thread. On why sanctions against Iran will not work, cannot work. There are workarounds which will be found. Are being found. By countries who need what Iran has. Or countries who have what Iran needs. Both ways. And were you to keep tightening the noose, as is being seen currently, there will be increasing resistance from certain quarters who think such unjustified and are being increasingly vocal and assertive about it.

Till it will reach a breaking point, at which point the sanctions will be defied. Openly. The something that will pop will more likely be external than internal. Were that to happen, you have pushed beyond the point of no return. And the sanctions lose their sting for good as the world polarises and the choice then is either to fight it or to be left out. To no consequence. Western sactions play into the mullah strategem, and give the theocracy the veneer of righteousness.

[vsdoc]

On the issue of impending gas sanctions and the Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act now .....

"Advocates of sanctions argue that now is the perfect time to pursue a new round. Iran's economy is weak and its leadership is in crisis. According to an Asian Times article, this is the reason Congress and the Israel lobby has been pressing sanctions.

This is the weakest part of the argument for gas sanctions. If Iran’s economy starts to slow down because of sanctions imposed by the US, it seems more likely that people in Iran would blame the US than Ahmadinejad. In the past, US sanctions and threats of military strikes have helped Ahmadinejad consolidate power. In an op-ed in the New York Times, Hossein Askari and Trita Parsi argue that proposed gas sanctions are likely to have the same effect:

If the back of the Iranian economy is broken, the first casualty will be hope. Economic misery will kill people’s faith in a better future. The result will be political apathy. And rather than blaming Mr. Ahmadinejad, Iranians are likely to blame the United States.

Moreover, Iran’s ruling hard-liners are in disarray. The politics of fear is their bread and butter; they have long benefited from invoking foreign plots and Washington’s discredited regime-change policy. But now — with President Obama’s new outreach to Iran — the hard-liners have lost their 9/11. President Obama has deprived them of their perennial boogeyman.

This has helped the opposition find the maneuverability to challenge Iran’s vote-robbers. The hard-liners have no credible threat to rally around. Their disgraceful show trials on Iranian TV reveal their desperation. This has not only allowed fissures between various factions in Iran to grow, but also increased tensions among the conservatives themselves.

Mr. Ahmadinejad is desperately in need of a threat to help consolidate his conservative base and lend credibility to accusations of conspiracy against his moderate opposition. Imposing a gasoline embargo could be his last, best hope. Congress and the White House should think long and hard before throwing a lifeline to Iran’s vote-robbers."

Iranian Gas Sanctions Seem Inevitable...Will They Work? | Center for Strategic and International Studies

[S2]

vsdoc, in addition to your link (which is appreciated) please use quote-marks when borrowing from other sources. It is only fair to the original authors.

[Double Edge]

The Saudis can cover that amount without breaking a sweat. So could the US. In fact the Saudis could cover all of Iran's daily export flow of about 2.5M BBLs/day, for a while at least. Prices were mixed today; some up, some down.

Libya put out 1.5 M bbls/day and the intervention there over five months did not disrupt oil prices too much meaning that OPEC had enough reserve capacity to cover the shortfall. If similar could be found here then an embargo looks feasible. It would certainly be preferable than a war by most parties concerned.

If the back of the Iranian economy is broken, the first casualty will be hope. Economic misery will kill people’s faith in a better future. The result will be political apathy. And rather than blaming Mr. Ahmadinejad, Iranians are likely to blame the United States.

Moreover, Iran’s ruling hard-liners are in disarray. The politics of fear is their bread and butter; they have long benefited from invoking foreign plots and Washington’s discredited regime-change policy. But now — with President Obama’s new outreach to Iran — the hard-liners have lost their 9/11. President Obama has deprived them of their perennial boogeyman.

This has helped the opposition find the maneuverability to challenge Iran’s vote-robbers. The hard-liners have no credible threat to rally around. Their disgraceful show trials on Iranian TV reveal their desperation. This has not only allowed fissures between various factions in Iran to grow, but also increased tensions among the conservatives themselves.

Mr. Ahmadinejad is desperately in need of a threat to help consolidate his conservative base and lend credibility to accusations of conspiracy against his moderate opposition. Imposing a gasoline embargo could be his last, best hope. Congress and the White House should think long and hard before throwing a lifeline to Iran’s vote-robbers.

Iranian Gas Sanctions Seem Inevitable...Will They Work? | Center for Strategic and International Studies

Cutting of diplomatic relations with the UK has come from the top meaning Khamenei has sanctioned it. A-Jad is out of the picture and on his way out from what i understand. The only players are IRGC & Khamenei.

[vsdoc]

vsdoc, in addition to your link (which is appreciated) please use quote-marks when borrowing from other sources. It is only fair to the original authors.

Done.

And thanks for appreciating.

It means a lot to me to be able to meet your exacting norms on source credibility for once.

[vsdoc]

Meanwhile, Iran is going ahead and doubling existing refinery capacity, building 7 new refineries that will meet the remainder of the 50% of their domestic consumption needs that they are currently importing, and should further be ready with over 100 new GTL refineries churning out synthetic crude oil from natural gas by the year 2021.

All of it apparently not endearing them greatly to US Presidential Republican candidate Newt Gingrich who has been calling for military strikes against Iran's refineries.

"As a last recourse" of course .....

[Double Edge]

vsdoc,

Always mention the date of the entry you post.

The blog entry you posted is dated Aug 27 2009

Conditions could have changed since regarding sanctions ;)

[S2]

Nice catch Double Edge.