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2012 election predictions

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  • 2012 election predictions

    The Obama shall retain the White House.

    Democrats will lose the Senate.

    Republicans may gain a few more seats in the House.

    You heard it here first.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  • #2
    gunnut,

    agree with the first two; third i'm not sure about yet.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    • #3
      I agree.

      One almost thinks the GOP doesn't want the win in 2012...
      To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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      • #4
        Originally posted by astralis View Post
        gunnut,

        agree with the first two; third i'm not sure about yet.
        I agree. Hence the "may" assumption. House seats are usually more fickle.

        The economy should improve a bit by this time next year. Of course the media will spin it as the greatest economic recovery of all time, thus guaranteeing The Obama's re-election.
        "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by gunnut View Post
          I agree. Hence the "may" assumption. House seats are usually more fickle.

          The economy should improve a bit by this time next year. Of course the media will spin it as the greatest economic recovery of all time, thus guaranteeing The Obama's re-election.
          Whats your reasoning behind this
          "Who says organization, says oligarchy"

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          • #6
            For the first I think it would depend on the match up:

            Romney v Obama likely Obama
            Cain v Obama...that's all up in the air.
            "Draft beer, not people."

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
              Whats your reasoning behind this
              The republican house is doing everything it can to stop the economy from getting any worse. The private sector should react positively to grid lock in congress. There's still enormous drag on the economy with various regulations Obama put in place, but the pent up desire to spend should overcome it. Hence the small growth.
              "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Red Team View Post
                For the first I think it would depend on the match up:

                Romney v Obama likely Obama
                Cain v Obama...that's all up in the air.
                Cain is not ready for prime time yet. His "simple" plan is getting picked apart.

                What is the 9% corporate tax in the 9-9-9 plan? Is it 9% tax on income? Profit? Net? Gross? Is it a VAT on corporate spending?
                "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by gunnut View Post
                  ...What is the 9% corporate tax in the 9-9-9 plan? Is it 9% tax on income? Profit? Net? Gross? Is it a VAT on corporate spending?
                  It's a tax on net profits, defined as Gross Sales-(COGS+Expenses) from US companies.

                  Near as I can tell.

                  Payrolls are not a deduction, but it replaces the payroll tax. So 9% on payrolls instead of 7.65% which is the current rate. This increase in payroll costs is offset by the lower rate on profits (as currently calculated with payroll costs as a deduction). Cap gains and dividends taxes are eliminated which is good for investments.

                  On balance it looks like a good deal for companies and investors.

                  The 9% sales tax makes up for the lost income taxes, and it helps offset the VAT differential that makes US companies uncompetetive in the global markets. It also collects taxes from the people who go under the radar, and it collects taxes from imports sold in the US.

                  That's a step in the right direction.

                  Assuming that pass-throughs are unchanged, I am for 9-9-9. But I object to the set-asides for "empowerment zones" (unless I happen to be in one, lol).

                  My prediction:

                  Obama loses by the largest electoral margin since Carter's spanking in 1980.
                  Repubs take Senate, but do not get a 60 seat threshold.
                  Repubs hold House, but lose a few seats.
                  "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

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                  • #10
                    we oughta set up some sort WAB betting mechanism, lol.
                    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      As always, bets seriously made on WAB will be made in multiples of Butter Cookie tins, or with donations to members of the Armed Forces, whether US or somewhere else.

                      Time to put your butter cookies where your mouths/fingers are. Gunnut, Astralis, troung, Red Team, highsea?
                      Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

                      Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by bigross86 View Post
                        As always, bets seriously made on WAB will be made in multiples of Butter Cookie tins, or with donations to members of the Armed Forces, whether US or somewhere else.

                        Time to put your butter cookies where your mouths/fingers are. Gunnut, Astralis, troung, Red Team, highsea?
                        I'm up for it, butter cookies or other type of donations to the US military.
                        "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          It doesn't have to be US military. I personally make donations to Lone Soldiers volunteering in the IDF.

                          Well, gunnut, how many tins you betting on your prediction?
                          Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

                          Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I already have bets with astralis and Rosie, $20 phone cards for the troops.

                            They have Obama, I have the field. :)
                            "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by bigross86 View Post
                              As always, bets seriously made on WAB will be made in multiples of Butter Cookie tins, or with donations to members of the Armed Forces, whether US or somewhere else.

                              Time to put your butter cookies where your mouths/fingers are. Gunnut, Astralis, troung, Red Team, highsea?
                              Ante up on Obama.

                              I'll bet an extra 5 packs of Chips Ahoy towards a care package for my Marine bud.
                              Last edited by Red Team; 26 Oct 11,, 00:26.
                              "Draft beer, not people."

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