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Thread: Bets on Syria?

  1. #31
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Iranian nuke can cause a problem for Israel by MAD .Iranian terror networks are just a nuisance.Arabs surrounding Israel reverting to pre-Camp David is in the long run as dangerous as Iranian nukes,perhaps even more so.
    Israel and Iran aren't allies by any means.They just happen to have a common interest in Assad's survival.

    Keep in mind that at Herat in 2001,your own people coordinated with Al-Quds .So yeah,this things can happen.
    The only problem with that is Israeli is 100x more powerful then Iran in a nuclear sense and they have been for years. They dont have to test, Iran must hide their testing. A big differnce between being nuclear "capable" and armed and nuclear "compatable" in a wishing sense. One sends the codes to the launchers, the other knows the game is over and they are about to get a really bad sunburn.

    If Israel believes for a moment they can kill the terrorist proxies by helping Assad fall IMO they wont even blink and will take that chance. By doing that chances are Hamas will also fall upon hard times and perhaps collapse. That "could" bring a peace between the Israelis and Palestinians. Its all in the crosshairs and alot of possibilities exist right now I definately agree.

    *Mind you I am no expert, just raising some credible points of contension here in the thread.
    Last edited by Dreadnought; 02 Dec 11, at 22:07.
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  2. #32
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    Base for what though. Many worlds Navy's travel the Med and patrol it. Its not like they could possibly move in and take over.
    Where do those navies put in for support & maintenance ?

    This is the only port the Russians have in the mediterannean. Here are a couple of articles that explain Russia's interest in Tartus.

    Russia set to build up its naval facilities in Syria | Ria Novosti | Jul 20 2009
    According to the Russian Navy, the naval base in Syria significantly boosts Russia's operational capability in the region because the warships based there are capable of reaching the Red Sea through the Suez Canal and the Atlantic through the Strait of Gibraltar in a matter of days.
    Russian Navy to base warships at Syrian port after 2012 | Ria Novosti | Aug 02 2010
    "Tartus will be developed as a naval base. The first stage of development and modernization will be completed in 2012," Adm. Vladimir Vysotsky said, adding it could then serve as a base for guided-missile cruisers and even aircraft carriers.

    According to Navy experts, the facility is being renovated to serve as a foothold for a permanent Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean.
    However, cypok & you make me rethink this rationale for Russia to support the Syrian regime. As a secondary reason maybe but no more.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    Not going to happen. If it did then someone could court Turkey and base nearby the Black Sea.
    You already have done so to a certain extent with Romania & Bulgaria (shared).

    Tartus has been very low key for the Russians until recently.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 02 Dec 11, at 23:14.

  3. #33
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    People looking strictly at the naval base are missing the point, imho. What are Russia's strategic aims in the Middle East? Therein lay the clue to why they do not want Assad to fall.

  4. #34
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    Syria is important because it keeps the balance of power between Turkey and Iran in the region. Syria and Iraq if they fall and are partitioned will shift the balance of power. Basically imagine if both states are less independent and are de-facto under 'guidence' of Turkey and Iran respectively, both countries could project power further and have more leverage with countries beyond their borders.

    The shift from Syria being pro Iran and Iraq semi-pro Turkey (out of their own self interests to keep their leverage as independent nations up) to Syria becoming pro Turkey and Iraq pro Iran (in essence client states) changes dynamics in the region. Think about possible future bases in the region on Syrian soil for Nato or even Turkey and the power projection capabilities.

    Russia cares because the more religious regimes in Iraq and Syria would fund more groups in the Caucases/Central Asia while making it appealing for Turkey to do the same. To some degree the shift in Iraq and Syria(if it happens) would go from more secular nationalists to religious forces whom would be less pragmatic externally.
    This guardian op-ed agrees with you

    Why Russia is backing Syria | Guardian | Dec 02 2011

    Russia's fears about a civil war developing in Syria are geostrategic and may not be too dissimilar to some of the more cautious western foreign policy analysts, war-gaming the effects it would have on the region. Russian middle eastern experts compare Syria to Russia's own province of Dagestan in the North Caucasus.

    Unlike its neighbouring Chechnya, Dagestan is patchwork of competing tribes, religions, ethnicities and loyalties, more than 150 of them. If a breakaway Muslim insurgency took hold there, Dagestan would explode like a grenade, sending hot shards of metal and people across southern Russia.

    Russian fears of a Lebanese-style civil war breaking out in Syria, with the country fissuring on sectarian lines, may not be as far fetched in three months' time as they currently seem. Keeping Syria together while getting rid of a vile dictatorship may conversely be a harder task than western leaders pressing for more sanctions realise. Turkey for one is talking big, but acting on the ground more cautiously.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 02 Dec 11, at 23:48.

  5. #35
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Where do those navies put in for support & maintenance ?

    This is the only port the Russians have in the mediterannean. Here are a couple of articles that explain Russia's interest in Tartus.

    Russia set to build up its naval facilities in Syria | Ria Novosti | Jul 20 2009


    Russian Navy to base warships at Syrian port after 2012 | Ria Novosti | Aug 02 2010


    However, cypok & you make me rethink this rationale for Russia to support the Syrian regime. As a secondary reason maybe but no more.


    You already have done so to a certain extent with Romania & Bulgaria (shared).

    Tartus has been very low key for the Russians until recently.
    IMO, A check and balance since the US plans of US Navy ship basing in both Austraila with US Marines and now in Spain. Spain is the one that really bothers them though because those ships are part of the ABM umbrella.
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

  6. #36
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    This may sound odd but I look at it like a big game.

    Say a poker game with 3 players Russia/Turkey/Iran. Each is holding some cards say One card is providing arms support to a different countries militant group Chechens/PKK/Arabs, another card is foreign interventionist impact (financial/economic sanctions/aid on trade), yet another card is simply support card among the three players vis a vis another. Players change like Putin/Medvedev etc. strategy could stay the same (stasis) and strategies change (neutrality to intervention) like Turkey going from nationalist to religious backing externally.

    The winner can win/loose land and influence and the economic incentive that might go with it. If the Assad regime is seen as too weak and Turkey thinks its' intervention will be beneficial it will happen, with Iran thinking that it might do it as well in Iraq to protect pilgrims etc... I totally see Iran looking at Iraq as a sort of Ukraine (granted different ethnic groups in Iran/Iraqs' case) but the religious capital is sort of there. My guess is if there was no external pressure in the form of sanctions and the deep international isolation hole Iran played itself into they would have intervened in Iraq after that last U.S. pullout.

    Syria Developments
    Syria Comment

    FSA membership appears to consist largely of experienced military personnel a cadre of officers and noncommissioned officers with, in some cases, social connections to local families and clans, towns and neighborhoods. In other words, they know how to use weapons and are fighting on terrain they know.

    I basically think that the internationalists with fake support the Syrian council which was picked people from international arena and the Free Syrian Army are opposing forces. I can definitely see some Turkish intervention and even covert support in taking one of the northern Syrian strong point cities (under the guise of FSA) and then pushing it through financial/military support, while gauging down the council that is in essence a foreign puppet as well just different players. This isn't happening because Syria has Kurds as a card to play but once they are given autonomy and are armed Turkey will play theirs. The reason this has to happen is because Turkey is already arming and providing money. My feeling is there is a negotiation between Assad/Kurds on who gets what for doing what.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  7. #37
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    "US: Assad's fall from power in Syria 'inevitable'" BBC News - US: Assad's fall from power in Syria 'inevitable'

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    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  9. #39
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    I hear Jaws music...

  10. #40
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    I hear Jaws music...
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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