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Thread: Bets on Syria?

  1. #16
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    There's been a few developments in this theatre recently.

    - The Turks do not have any objections to intervening in Syria if necessary.

    - Some of Libya's opposition fighters as well as weapons are being offered to strengthen the Syrian 'resistance'.

    - The Russians are deploying their warships to the Syrian port of Tartus. The Russians are opposing the arms embargo on Syria and have not ruled out arming Syria with Russian weapons and have supplied them with supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.

    Russia does not want an intervention in Syria, either that or they want to make it expensive.
    But yet they saw no real problem with Libya and Syria has the very same problem. A "dick" tator that refuses to recognize the rights of the Syrian people.

    Why is that men like this just cannot step down after decades of rule and do whats best for the people he ruled albeit by his own rule without destroying everything in the country of having so many lives lost to see who is more determined to rule their lives.
    Last edited by Dreadnought; 02 Dec 11, at 14:38.
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  2. #17
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Libya wasn't that important to Russia.

    I'll be very curious to see how this goes on.Israel and Iran are allies of convenience here.,both in league with the Russians.The Iranians already sent men to help Assad.Now the Russians made their move.There is no way in hell NATO will attack Assad,because we might see how S300's with Russian crews in Syrian uniform can fight.
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  3. #18
    Contributor Red Team's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    Why is that men like this just cannot step down after decades of rule and do whats best for the people he ruled albeit by his own rule without destroying everything in the country of having so many lives lost to see who is more determined to rule their lives.
    Greed.

    What I'm curious about is what Israel is going to do in the coming months...I suppose Mossad "encouragement" towards Assad's demise isn't too far fetched?
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  4. #19
    Contributor NUS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Libya wasn't that important to Russia.
    And why Syria is so important to Russia in your opinion?
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  5. #20
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Team View Post
    What's up with the Russian's buddy-buddy response here in Syria? It seems to me that they have something that they want which wasn't so in Libya.
    A base in the mediteranean sea

    The relationship dates back to the soviet era.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUS View Post
    And why Syria is so important to Russia in your opinion?
    Ask yourself this, after Syria falls, what's next?

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    A base in the mediteranean sea

    The relationship dates back to the soviet era.
    Syria is important because it keeps the balance of power between Turkey and Iran in the region. Syria and Iraq if they fall and are partitioned will shift the balance of power. Basically imagine if both states are less independent and are de-facto under 'guidence' of Turkey and Iran respectively, both countries could project power further and have more leverage with countries beyond their borders.

    The shift from Syria being pro Iran and Iraq semi-pro Turkey (out of their own self interests to keep their leverage as independent nations up) to Syria becoming pro Turkey and Iraq pro Iran (in essence client states) changes dynamics in the region. Think about possible future bases in the region on Syrian soil for Nato or even Turkey and the power projection capabilities.

    Russia cares because the more religious regimes in Iraq and Syria would fund more groups in the Caucases/Central Asia while making it appealing for Turkey to do the same. To some degree the shift in Iraq and Syria(if it happens) would go from more secular nationalists to religious forces whom would be less pragmatic externally.
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  8. #23
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    mihais,

    There is no way in hell NATO will attack Assad,because we might see how S300's with Russian crews in Syrian uniform can fight.
    i do not think NATO will intervene either, but OTOH i -highly- doubt we will see russian crews on S300s. far too inflammatory, for too little gain. russia would know that if NATO intervenes that means assad is dead meat, with or without covert russian involvement.
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  9. #24
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Point taken.There's something I forgot before.Iran and Russia made their moves in support of Assad.I wonder how the Israelis will do it.Right now,they have as much interest as Iran not to see Assad toppled.That may be the most important reason NATO won't move a finger.

    I'm not expecting anything to show up from the Israeli side on the matter,though.
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    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  10. #25
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Because there is no guarantee that the next Syrian adminstration will not want the Golan back ?
    Last edited by Double Edge; 02 Dec 11, at 21:16.

  11. #26
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    A base in the mediteranean sea

    The relationship dates back to the soviet era.
    Base for what though. Many worlds Navy's travel the Med and patrol it. Its not like they could possibly move in and take over. Not going to happen. If it did then someone could court Turkey and base nearby the Black Sea.
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  12. #27
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Libya wasn't that important to Russia.

    I'll be very curious to see how this goes on.Israel and Iran are allies of convenience here.,both in league with the Russians.The Iranians already sent men to help Assad.Now the Russians made their move.There is no way in hell NATO will attack Assad,because we might see how S300's with Russian crews in Syrian uniform can fight.
    And no one thought that Libya, Egypt or the others could hold out long enough to force a change. They did. So Russia's intrests will doubtfully stop them if they want it bad enough. It looks like it just may go that direction too.

    S-300's are the old system. Russia barely employs them anymore. They have the S-400 series now.

    Israel will in no way shape or form ally with the Iranians. That is set in stone. If anything Iran will assist in beating down the resistance trying to win a spot in Syria. If Assad's regime falls then Iran will find it diffacult arming their terror factions and having influence. Thats their interest.
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  13. #28
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Because there is no guarantee that the next Syrian adminstration will not want the Golan back ?
    There pretty much is a guarentee they wont get it though. The most strategic ground around Israel. The Israeli's already know what would happen if they gave back the Golan and whatever regime or government took over in Syria decided to revert back to the past.
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  14. #29
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Because there is no guarantee that the next Syrian adminstration will not want the Golan back ?
    Because otherwise they're back in 1973,given how the MB fared in Egyptian election.Even if he survives,Assad won't be in the mood for adventures and he won't have the means anyway.
    An Islamic Syria will probably receive support from Iran against Israel even if otherwise it will enter the Sunni bloc.Assad won't be however too willing to shake hands with those that want him dead right now.
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  15. #30
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    And no one thought that Libya, Egypt or the others could hold out long enough to force a change. They did. So Russia's intrests will doubtfully stop them if they want it bad enough. It looks like it just may go that direction too.

    S-300's are the old system. Russia barely employs them anymore. They have the S-400 series now.

    Israel will in no way shape or form ally with the Iranians. That is set in stone. If anything Iran will assist in beating down the resistance trying to win a spot in Syria. If Assad's regime falls then Iran will find it diffacult arming their terror factions and having influence. Thats their interest.
    Iranian nuke can cause a problem for Israel by MAD .Iranian terror networks are just a nuisance.Arabs surrounding Israel reverting to pre-Camp David is in the long run as dangerous as Iranian nukes,perhaps even more so.
    Israel and Iran aren't allies by any means.They just happen to have a common interest in Assad's survival.

    Keep in mind that at Herat in 2001,your own people coordinated with Al-Quds .So yeah,this things can happen.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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